Archive for the 'AR-Sen' CategoryPage 2 of 2

Still very much vulnerable, Lincoln and Dodd enjoy two sunnier polls

Published
by
Taniel
on September 15, 2009
in AR-Sen and CT-Sen
. 1 Comment

For incumbents, the one good consequence of receiving dismal polls that show them in stunningly huge holes is that surveys that have them in a mediocre-to-worrisome position suddenly look like amazing news.

This is exactly what is happening this week to Chris Dodd and Blanche Lincoln. Both of them have seen their 2010 prospects collapse from the seemingly safe to the highly endangered in recent months - a fall punctuated by polls like this and this - but Research 2000 has a sunnier take on their electability.

Arkansas

Lincoln’s favorability rating is negative - 43% to 49% - but she leads all four of her potential contenders: 44% to 37% against state Senator Gilbert Baker, 45% to 37% against Safe Foods CEO Curtis Coleman, 46% to 29% against businessman Tom Cox and 47% to 28% against state Senator Kim Hendren.

Had this been the first poll to test Lincoln versus Baker and Coleman, I wouldn’t have bothered writing much that is positive about her prospects based on these numbers - and there is no denying that she remains in a precarious position. A two-term senator, she is well under 50% against all rivals and within single-digits against two of them. Worst still, all four Republicans have very low name recognition: Only 27% and 25% of respondents have an opinion of Baker and Coleman, only 15% have one of Hendren and Cox. Not only is her favorability rating negative, but fewer Democrats approve of her (66%) than Republicans disapprove (68%).

In short, this poll provides no reason to remove Arkansas from the map of sure-to-be-competitive Senate races. And yet, the numbers are incomparably better than August’s PPP survey, in which Lincoln narrowly trailed Baker and Coleman and could only muster a 1% lead against a Republican who is just as low-profile as Cox (former attorney Thomas Cotton).

That survey made it look like voters were only looking to oust Lincoln no matter her opponent, but this poll paints a very different picture. First, she leads outside of the MoE against all Republicans; second, she  manages to crush the lowest-profiles of them by nearly 20%. Sure, more Republicans are undecided in match-ups involving Cox and Hendren, but the point is that she is no so unpopular that just any Republican can be sure to get within a few points by virtue of his name recognition.

These two pollsters, then, paint two differing landscapes - one finds Lincoln so weak that around 40% of Arkansas are willing to back her ouster no matter what, the other finds her vulnerable but not enough that Republicans can win without running a very solid campaign. I believe no pollster other than PPP and Research 2000 has tested Arkansas, so we’ll wait to see what other surveys have to say about this.

Note that the R2000 poll comes in the heels of Lincoln’s becoming Chairwoman of the Agriculture Committee because of the game of musical chairs that followed Teddy Kennedy’s death. That might be worrisome news for cap-and-trade proponents, but it is certainly a boost to Lincoln’s reelection prospects. I’m not saying that voters are responding to that in this poll, as I doubt this news has spread around, but her newfound position of influence will give Lincoln a powerful campaign argument next year.

(Update: This poll also finds Arkansas voters favor a public option 55% to 38%. Worth keeping in mind the next time Lincoln addresses her health care stance: She is currently the only member of the Democratic Caucus to unambiguously oppose the public option. Joe Lieberman is also opposed.)

Connecticut

Quinnipiac and Rasmussen have both found veteran Democrat Chris Dodd trailing by double-digits against former Rep. Rob Simmons and struggling to grab a lead against lower-profile contenders. Research 2000 confirms that Dodd is one of the most vulnerable 2010 incumbents, but gives him many more reason to hope than earlier surveys.

While negative, Dodd’s favorability rating is not as worrisome as what other polls have found (43-47). At this point, the popularity enjoyed by his well-known opponent is just as worrisome as Dodd’s own numbers: At 43-17, Simmons needs no introduction to 60% of voters and he even has a positive rating among Democratic respondents! The other potential Republican nominees have far lower name recognition - though they have 11 more months to introduce themselves to primary voters.

In the general election, Dodd trails Simmons 46% to 42%. This comes from a daunting margin among independents, a powerful constituency in Connecticut (55-32) and from a less than impressive number among Democrats (72%). He does lead state Senator Sam Caliguri 46% to 37%, former Ambassador Tom Foley 44% to 40% and Peter Schiff 47% to 35%.

The good news for Dodd is that his margin against Simmons is not as daunting as that of other surveys - this is the first since March the Republican does not lead outside of the MoE! - and that he manages outside-the-MoE leads against 2 Republicans. The bad news, of course, is that he fails to break 50%, that it won’t even take a Simmons nomination for the NRSC to have a shot at this seat and that he fails to even get close among independents in any of these match-ups.

In short, there is no reason not to think of Connecticut as one of the Democrats’ most endangered state - but the party is also not marching towards a sure disaster, as some have predicted. For instance, calls that Democratic leaders pressure Dodd to retire are unlikely to get very far with numbers like this, as an incumbent trailing within the MoE is not unusual enough for the leadership to go to such unusual lengths to ensure a retirement.

Interestingly, Dodd’s re-election prospects are also tied to the chairmanship decision he made in the wake of Kennedy’s death. With the vacancy at the head of the HELP committee, he was in a position to take over as chairman - but he chose to keep his position as the chairman of the Banking Committee. (Harkin then took over at HELP, which allowed Lincoln to take over at Agriculture.) Why would Dodd do that, given that HELP is generally considered to have a higher profile? The hits Dodd has taken over his connection to the financial industry is the main reason he is now so endangered, so he might be thinking that the only way to improve his standing is to be perceived as fighting for meaningful reforms - and what better way to do that than to be at the helm of the coming regulatory bill?

R2000 also tested the 2012 Senate race, and found Joe Lieberman in big trouble. In a three-way race involving Republican Jodi Rell and Democrat Ned Lamont, Rell leads with 46%; Lamont and Lieberman are tied at 26%. If the Democratic nominee is AG Richard Blumenthal, Rell leads 40% to 32% for Blumenthal and 23% for Lieberman. (One issue: Just as in 2006, Lieberman’s prospects depends on the GOP nominating a low-profile candidate, which will allow the incumbent to pile up Republican support. Consider that, in the match-up with Blumenthal and Rell, Lieberman gets a higher share of the GOP vote than the independent and Democratic votes!)

Let’s put Arkansas on the map and leave it there

Published
by
Taniel
on August 26, 2009
in AR-Sen
. 12 Comments

One of the criteria for determining whether Democrats have to fear a red wave is whether Republicans are managing to contest races that have no business being competitive. While I argued Nevada, Illinois and Delaware’s Senate races cannot be said to belong to that category, Connecticut’s does - and it looks like we can now add Arkansas to the list.

Sure, this a conservative state that voted for John McCain by 21% last fall, but it has never been easy for Republicans to be competitive in this longtime Democratic stronghold. Republicans have only won a single Senate race in Arkansas since 1879: Tim Hutchison’s 1996 victory was short-lived, since he lost his first re-election race to Mark Pryor in 2002. Not only one was that one of the GOP’s only tough losses in an otherwise favorable cycle, but Pryor did not even face any opponent when he ran for re-election in 2008.

With that kind of track record, we expected it to take a top-tier GOP opponent to get this state on the map - if not Mike Huckabee, than at least former U.S. Attorney Tim Griffin. This is certainly not a state we should expect any Republican to be competitive just based on his party affiliation.

But that is exactly what is happening according to PPP’s latest poll: Lincoln struggles to break the 40% mark against second-to-third challengers, none of which enjoy significant statewide name recognition: Only 23%, 22% and 16% of voters have an opinion on businessman Curtis Coleman, state Senator Gilbert Baker and former attorney Thomas Cotton, respectively. More surprisingly, those who do have an opinion intensely dislike these Republicans: For each, their unfavorability rating is at least twice as high as their favorability rating.

Yet, Lincoln’s dismal approval rating - 36% to 44% - is too much for her to overcome: She trails Baker 42% to 40% and she trails Coleman 41% to 40%; she can only muster a 40% to 39% lead against Cotton.

Let’s say it again: A two-term Democratic Senator who holds a seat Republicans have not won in 131 years is leading an unknown (yet disliked but those who know him) political novice by only 1% - and she is well under the 50% mark. If that is no sign that Lincoln is facing a very tough cycle, I don’t know what is.

In short, it’s time to put Arkansas on the map of competitive Senate races, and most probably leave it there. Even though Republican prospects will improve if Baker jumps in, Coleman is already running - and probably willing to spend substantial sums of his own money.

To conclude on a perhaps more comforting note for Democrats, the poll does contain some hints that Lincoln’s vulnerability should not solely be attributed to a pro-GOP environment. Just as we knew that Reid was in trouble months before there was any talk of Republican momentum, Lincoln’s unpopularity appears to have as much to do with voters’ long-held opinions as with any sudden change in their view of the Democratic Party. The share of voters who approve of Lincoln (36%) is lower than that of Pryor (47%) and Obama (40%). In fact, Obama’s 40% is higher than the support he received in last year’s election (39%).

This is not to say that Lincoln is not highly endangered; if anything, I am suggesting that Lincoln’s vulnerability might be even greater than the numbers by themselves suggest since it could be harder for her to repair an unpopular image than for Democrats to reclaim some momentum nationally. The fact that Lincoln’s unpopularity isn’t related to her party affiliation also explains why we are hearing talk of a potential primary challenge against her, with Democratic state President Bob Johnson going as far as to publicly express his interest this week.

But these numbers do suggest that it would be too simplistic to argue that Lincoln’s numbers are falling simply because Democrats are trying to pass health care reform or establish a cap-and-trade system, and I want to caution that her declining numbers do not mean that Russ Feingold, Patty Murray and Ron Wyden will suddenly also have to fight for their political life.

A potential primary challenger for Blanche Lincoln

Published
by
Taniel
on August 24, 2009
in AR-Sen
. 0 Comments

Talk of a primary challenge against Blanche Lincoln has been circulating in liberal circles ever since the Arkansas Senator emerged as one of the staunchest Democratic opponents to progressive reform. Awareness that Arkansas is a conservative-leaning state made it obvious Lincoln could not obviously be turned into Joe Lieberman, but some eyes were on Lieutenant Governor Bill Halter as a potential contender.

The week-end brought news that a prominent state politician - state Senate President Bob Johnson - is considering challenging Lincoln in the Democratic primary. The twist: He is thinking of doing so from the right!

While Johnson did not take a direct shot at Lincoln while declaring that he is “weighing [a run] very carefully,” he did say that he would run as a conservative Democrat and promise that he would not be a “functionary” of Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi if he was elected. It’s hard not to take that as anything but on attack on Lincoln for being too supportive of her party’s line.

That’s right, the Senator who is arguably more responsible than any other for the Employee Free Choice Act’s faltering and who led the fight to lower the estate tax for multimillionaires back this spring now has to worry about fending the challenge of a Democrat who thinks she has not been conservative enough. Even in Arkansas, that is a bit surprising.

In many Southern states, registered Democrats far outnumber registered Republicans - but only because of habits and ancestral affiliations. In Arkansas, the Democratic Party is particularly dominant at the local level - it controls supermajorities in both chambers of the state legislature, the governorship, the 2 Senate seats and 3 out of 4 House seats - but it’s hard not to call the state staunchly conservative: It went for John McCain by 21% - 28% more Republican than the country at large. As such, the state’s Democratic electorate is not at all as liberal as in other states, which is why Johnson is hoping to get traction by criticizing Lincoln’s coziness with Reid and Pelosi.

We might now once again see the magic of a primary threat at work. In New York and Pennsylvania, Arlen Specter was pulled to the right by Pat Toomey’s challenge before moving leftward once his biggest worry became Joe Sestak - witness his zigzags on EFCA; Kirsten Gillibrand became a reliable Democratic vote since being threatened with top-tier Democratic opponent and in Iowa, the intangible prospect of a conservative challenger is reportedly holding Chuck Grassley back from striking a deal with Max Baucus.

If Johnson follows through on his comments, it could have serious consequences on Lincoln’s political positioning. Whatever the electorate’s leanings, the best way for incumbents to smolder a primary challenge is to leave no space between themselves and their opponent: That way, the power of incumbent will function in full force to carry them through.

All we need to do is take a look at the 1990s’ Southern Democratic Senators to realize she could drift further still to the right - and that could give her party’s leadership even bigger headaches than it has now. This comes at a particularly frustrating time for Democrats. Pressured by liberal groups, Lincoln had just started to shift her stance on health care reform leftward, for once: After declaring that co-ops were preferable to a public option back in June, she shifted to a position far more favorable to the creation of a public plan in July - a step that was celebrated by liberals as one of their best Senate victories.

All of this said, I remain doubtful that Arkansas’s Democratic electorate is quite as conservative as it would take for Johnson to unseat a two-term Senator from the right.

While I explained above that the prominence of registered Democrats in a conservative state suggests that the primary electorate tilts right, this is not as pronounced a trend as in states like West Virginia and Kentucky, where Democrats add up to around half of the electorate. In 2008, 36% of voters described themselves as Democrats in the presidential exit poll, and they voted for Barack Obama 77% to 21%; that’s nothing to boast of, but it’s also nothing to suggest that Arkansas Democrats are fundamentally uncomfortable with national Democrats. And John Kerry received more than 80% of the state’s Democratic vote in 2004.

One twist is that Arkansas holds open primaries, so independents and Republicans could participate in a primary if they so chose. But with the GOP also set to feature a competitive race - perhaps between state Sen. Gilbert Baker, who is by the way close to Bob Johnson, and businessman Curtis Coleman - let’s not exaggerate the prospects of Republicans swarming the Democratic primary: In the 2008 presidential primary, 78% of voters were Democrats and 36% described themselves as liberal - versus 15% who said conservative.

In short: Johnson could mount a competitive challenge but the state’s Democratic electorate is not quite as conservative for Lincoln suddenly to have to drift even further right if he attacks her as a liberal. (It feels weird just to write that.)

Can new Senate candidates get Arkansas and Iowa to rise to the top?

Published
by
Taniel
on August 12, 2009
in AR-Sen and IA-Sen
. 0 Comments

Iowa and Arkansas have fallen off the Senate radar. In the former, not only is it clear that Chuck Grassley will not retire but Tom Vilsack, the Democrats’ best hope, is serving in Obama’s Cabinet; in the latter, the most promising Republican, Tim Griffin, unexpectedly ruled out a run while the rest of the state party sank in an unending series of disqualifying gaffes. With new challengers announcing candidacies today, it’s worth taking a look at these races again: Might they help AR or IA rise to the top?

Undaunted by early gaffe, Coleman follows through in Arkansas

We met Coleman a few months ago, when he raised eyebrows for declaring that you need “a visa and shots” to go to southeast Arkansas. He later claimed his comments should be taken as a celebration of the state’s diversity. This cringe-worthy incident gained even more coverage from the fact that it came just a few weeks after state Senator Kim Hendren sabotaged his nascent campaign by referring to Chuck Schumer as “that Jew” and digging himself in a deeper hole in subsequent attempts to apologize.

While Hendren put his campaign on hold after that incident, Coleman doesn’t seem to have gotten second thoughts: He just announced he would challenge Lincoln in 2010.

Apart from his apparent inability to control his thoughts, Coleman is the type of second-tier candidate Republicans should hope for at this point. It’s now clear they won’t land a prominent name so why not go with a wealthy businessman with political connections and the potential to self-fund? The CEO of Safe Foods Corp., Coleman’s business background could be a boost in a state that is hostile to labor. Coleman looks to be staunchly conservative, which could help excite the grassroots. And his ties to Huckabee - he managed the his unsuccessful Senate campaign in 1992 - could help convince the still-popular former Governor to get involved in the race, perhaps even open up his fundraising network.

And yet, it’s hard to get past the way in which we first met Coleman. Such unfiltered rhetoric is what parties risk when they rely on a businessman who has suddenly developed political ambitions. (See Democrat Jack Davis’s repeated runs in NY-26.) Coleman might have managed a statewide campaign in the early 1990s, but it remains to be seen whether he’s ready for the public spotlight and how he will hold up under pressure once Lincoln unleashes the millions she has stocked up.

If the environment turns nasty for Democrats or if Coleman catches fire - fundraising-wise, grassroots-wise and on the trail, this businessman could give Lincoln a run for her money and make the race well worth watching. But the NRSC would still be well-advised to try to recruit Gilbert Baker, a state Senator who would not be the most formidable of contenders but should at least prove more reliable.

A second challenger for Grassley

The prospect of running against five-term Senator Chuck Grassley is understandably not getting Iowa Democrats terribly excited. For now, Grassley had drawn only one candidate - party activist Bob Krause, who chairs the the Iowa Democratic Veterans’ Caucus. Krause’s enthusiasm does not seem to be quite enough to catch the DSCC’s attention, and another Democrat is now attempting to get some traction: Tom Fiegen, a former state Senator who now works as a bankruptcy lawyer.

Fiegen can point that he has successfully ran for office before - and that surely raises his credibility: In 2000, Fiegen won a surprising upset against a five-term Republican incumbent who had served as minority leader. Yet, he soon fell victim of redistricting: In 2002, district redrawing forced him to against an incumbent Republican, a race Fiegen lost. He also lost a subsequent attempt to return to the legislature.

At least, Fiegen has experienced the rigors of campaigning and should avoid committing Coleman-like rookie mistakes. Voters’ distaste in the political establishment could give him an opening to exploit against Grassley. “[People are] wondering if this is the same Chuck Grassley that has represented them in Washington since 1975,” he said. In launching his campaign, Fiegen highlighted the issue of health care, saying the country needed a public option, and Grassley’s ties to the finance industry in what could be the Democrats’ response to Republican attacks on Chris Dodd.

But a two-year stint in the political legislature does not give Fiegen a big enough profile or extensive enough connections to mount a top-tier challenge against a 30-year Senator who hasn’t been held under 66% in any of his 4 prior re-election races.

After all, even if the environment favors Democrats, it’s highly unlikely to be as favorable as in 2008, where they could just recruit a low-profile candidate and hope the GOP’s toxic brand would do the rest. Now, unless a successful health care reform becomes so popular that Democrats go after those who opposed the public option - a scenario we cannot dismiss - Grassley will remain highly favored and Fiegen’s candidacy will not catapult Iowa anywhere near the top of the Democrats’ priority list.

The final stage of catch-up: Hynes, C. Kennedy, Tausch and Heidepriem create 2010 waves

Published
by
Taniel
on August 1, 2009
in AR-Sen, IL-Gov, NH-Sen and SD-Gov
. 0 Comments

I am still trying to catch-up on the dozens of electoral stories I did not cover in the week I put politics on hold. Earlier, I went through the long list of House developments and a poll roundup so here’s a look at the week’s news in statewide races. Much of this is old news by now, but this way can all be up-to-date on the midterm picture - and then go from there.

AR: GOP in desperate search of credible candidate

The state Republican Party has such a weak bench that we never expected they would easily find a challenger for Senator Blanche Lincoln; but their adventures over the past few months remain downright extraordinary. First, state Senator Kim Hendren got into well-deserved trouble for his comments on Chuck Schumer. Then, it was Safe Foods CEO Curtis Coleman’s turn to make an offensive comment - this time about the need to have a visa to travel to Southeast Arkansas. That has left Republican in the hands of challengers like retired Army Colonel Conrad Reynolds, who just announced his bid. The GOP’s main hope at this point is that state Senator Gilbert Baker jumps in the race - and we are just learning that he might be interested.

IL: Democratic fields in flux

Ever since he became Governor, Pat Quinn had been nervously eying Lisa Madigan since most everyone expected the Attorney General to challenge the unelected Governor in next year’s Democratic primary. Once Madigan unexpectedly announced she would simply run for re-election, Quinn drew a huge sigh of relief and we thought he was out of the woods - heading towards an easy victory. And then emerged a new rival: state Comptroller Dan Hynes is reportedly settling on a gubernatorial run. A three-term Comptroller, Hynes has a high enough profile to be a credible candidate - not to mention that he has run a high-profile statewide primary before: He came in second to Barack Obama in the 2004 Senate race!

And yet another candidate might appear: While Chris Kennedy has long been believed to be a certain Senate candidate, The Chicago Sun Times reported last week that he is now considering running in the gubernatorial race instead. Not that Quinn is that formidable, but I am at a loss to explain why Kennedy thinks he will have an easier time beating an incumbent Governor than running for an open Senate seat. In any case, Kennedy’s exit would leave Alexi Giannoulias and Cheryle Jackson in a two-way race for the Democratic nomination.

NH: Tausch exits Senate race

Just a few days after I wrote that Kelly Ayotte doesn’t have much to fear from the grumbling that she is not conservative enough, one of her Republican rivals dropped out of the race: After dropping thousands of dollars of his own money to blanket the state with advertisement, businessman Fred Tausch announced he was nixing his plans to run in 2010.

While Tausch was a political novice, his vast fortune would at least have guaranteed that he give Ayotte a tough time so his departure is a good development for the Attorney General. The remaining Republican contender is Ovide Lamontagne, but this conservative has been out of the public spotlight since his failed 1996 gubernatorial run. It looks like we can prepare for a Hodes-Ayotte general election.

NC: Waiting for Marshall

Secretary of State Elaine Marshall looks increasingly likely to jump in the state’s Senate race, which would give Democrats a high-profile recruit to take on Senator Richard Burr. The latest on her thought process comes to us from a campaign strategist that tells CQ that she is “pretty seriously leaning toward” running and will make up her mind by “early fall.”

As I noted earlier this week, Marshall is probably waiting to see how much competition she would have in the Democratic primary. Now that Roy Cooper, Mike McIntyre, Heath Shuler, Brad Miller, Charles Meeker and Richard Moore have made clear they will not run, very few Democrats could offer Marshall serious resistance. That could make a Senate run too good for the longtime SoS to resist.

SD: Democrats land a contender

Republicans are overwhelmingly favored to win South Dakota’s open gubernatorial race ever since Stephanie Herseth Sandlin announced she’ll stick to the House. Yet, state Senate minority leader Scott Heidepriem’s candidacy announcement gives Democrats a credible candidate after all - and with it a shot at winning this position for the first time since 1974. SD might be a red state, but it is also accustomed to voting for Democrats (the party controls two of the state’s 3 congressional seats).

The catch: Heidepriem long served in the state legislature as a Republican so even if his gubernatorial campaign is successful he might not be the ideal heir-apparent for Johnson and Herseth Sandlin (not that either of these two are reliable votes for the Democratic leadership).

In blow to Senate Republicans, Griffin will not run in Arkansas

Published
by
Taniel
on May 25, 2009
in AR-Sen
. 2 Comments

The NRSC has been confident it has a chance at defeating Senator Blanche Lincoln in 2010 and their hopes have long looked somewhat justified: Not only were Lincoln’s poll numbers mediocre, but the GOP looked fairly certain to score a credible recruit in the form of Tim Griffin.

A former U.S. Attorney, Griffin spent much of the past few months traveling across Arkansas and releasing statements attacking the Democratic Senator on issues like the Employee Free Choice Act. But in an unexpected move, Griffin has abruptly pulled out of contention, telling an Arkansas News reporter that the timing is not right for a run. “He’s got a lot going on,” writes David J. Sanders, citing Griffin’s desire to grow a family and to develop his business.

Of course, none of these things are factors that suddenly popped up on the radar screen in recent weeks, so it is more likely that Griffin’s change of heart is due to his loss of confidence that he would be able to unseat Lincoln - or perhaps his fear that he would have to fight his way out of a Republican primary. For all the talk of a Republican resurgence in congressional races, it is important to remember that the environment is still unfavorable enough for the GOP that it remains difficult for the party’s committees to recruit top candidates.

Griffin’s decision is undeniably a blow to the GOP’s prospects of challenging Lincoln. To be sure, he would have brought a lot of baggage to the Senate race. A former aide to Karl Rove, he would have been easy for Democrats to tag as a lackey of the Bush administration - especially given that Griffin played a prominent role in the U.S. Attorney’s scandal (Alberto Gonzalez bypassed the confirmation process in appointing him, and it was later alleged that the previous U.S. Attorney was dismissed to make room for Griffin).

Yet, the state GOP is notoriously weak and Republicans have a laughably weak bench. By Arkansas standards, then, Griffin was as well-connected and promising a candidate as the NRSC could have hoped for and a PPP poll released at the end of March found Lincoln leading Griffin by an unimpressive 8% (46% to 38%).

To make matters worse for Republicans, Griffin’s withdrawal comes just days after state Senator Kim Hendren (Lincoln’s one declared challenger) announced he was no longer sure he would pursue the race because of the controversy he created when he called Chuck Schumer “that Jew.” Whatever Hendren decides to do, he will find it difficult to emerge as a credible candidate after the events of the past week: There were already enough doubts that a 71-year old state lawmaker has what it takes to mount a competitive Senate race that his offensive comments will make it hard for him to get his campaign off the ground.

Remain two Republicans: One is state Senator Gilbert Baker, who just said he is “more open” to runnign than he was a month ago; the second is Safe Food CEO Curtis Coleman, whose main advantage is that he could self-fund part of his campaign. Either could make a decent candidate, but there is no doubt that things have been looking up for Lincoln.

Might this impact her behavior in the Senate? While Lincoln has never been a liberal, she has been recently moving to the right on a variety of issues. According to Progressive Punch, her “progressive score” is 68.44; but her rating for the current Congress is far lower - only 44.44. It is hard not to attribute some of that significant rightward drift to her worry that she might face a competitive re-election race.

If Baker passes on the race or if his candidacy fails to take off, allowing Lincoln to feel more comfortable about her re-election chances, might she reintegrate the Democratic mainstream? On no issue would this play a bigger role than on the Employee Free Choice Act: Lincoln was the first Democratic Senator to announce her unequivocal opposition to EFCA but she voted in favor of its 2007 version. Her high-profile reversal now looks to be one of the toughest obstacles the bill has to overcome.

One Republican bows out in Ohio, another sabotages his own campaign in Arkansas

Published
by
Taniel
on May 16, 2009
in AR-Sen, KY-Sen, OH-Sen and OH-downballot
. 2 Comments

Taylor will not challenge Portman in Ohio

As soon as former Rep. Rob Portman announced his Senate bid, Ohio Republicans treated him as their presumptive nominee - as if no other prominent GOPer was considering a run. In fact, state Auditor Mary Taylor was still mulling the race. But the establishment’s pressure combined with her fear of giving up her job led Taylor to decide to stay out of the race yesterday; there is no doubt that Portman’s announcement that he had raised an impressive $3 million in the first quarter of 2009 contributed to scaring Taylor away.

This solidifies Portman’s claim to the Republican nomination. Not only was Taylor his most serious potential opponent, but former Senator Mike DeWine will now face even more pressure not to seek his old job back. (A few months ago, DeWine said he would run either for Governor, Senate or Attorney General. If Taylor had jumped in, perhaps DeWine would have felt the right to run as well since he would not be the one causing a crowded primary.) This will allow him to stock up on fundraising and introduce himself to voters while Democrats resolve their nomination fight.

On the other hand, I have repeatedly pointed out that avoiding a contested primary in Ohio is not that important since the election will be held in March May, an early date that will leave enough time for a wounded nominee to prepare for the general election. Instead of touting the fact that they have cleared the field in Ohio, Republicans should concentrate on avoiding divisive struggles in Kentucky, Missouri and Florida.

In fact, the most important consequence of Taylor’s decision does not concern the Senate race but the election for state Auditor. This might not seem that important, but the stakes are high. In 2011-2012, the state’s legislative lines will be redrawn by the State Apportionment Board, which has five members - one of which is the Auditor. Thus, Democrats are looking to pick-up this seat next year, and they have already recruited Hamilton County Commissioner David Pepper. Had Taylor not sought re-election, it would have been easier for Democrats to pick-up the seat - just as it will be easier for the GOP to contest the Secretary of State position since Jennifer Brunner is running for Senate. Thus, we will have to keep an eye on Taylor’s re-election campaign and on the open Secretary of State race.

As new GOPer makes move, strike Hendren from the list of credible candidates

The one Republican who is currently running against Arkansas Senator Blanche Lincoln no longer looks that credible. When state Senator Kim Hendren first announced a run, I pointed out his many liabilities but wrote that he had enough political experience to make for a competitive challenger. Well, it now looks like Hendren has antisemitic tendencies and is absolutely unprepared for primetime. First, he called Senator Chuck Schumer “that Jew.” Then he made matters worse when he attempted to apologize. Not only did he defend himself from charges of antisemitism by claiming that he sometimes agrees with Joe Lieberman, he also offered strange rationales for his comment:

I don’t use a teleprompter and occasionally I put my foot in my month… At the meeting I was attempting to explain that unlike Sen. Schumer, I believe in traditional values, like we used to see on ‘The Andy Griffith Show.’  I made the mistake of referring to Sen. Schumer as ‘that Jew’ and I should not have put it that way as this took away from what I was trying to say.

I am not sure why we should feel reassured that Hendren thought of calling Schumer “that Jew” in the context of discussing his lack of traditional values. It seems to me that this explanation only makes matters worse. “I shouldn’t have gotten into this Jewish business because it distracts from the issue,” Hendren also said.

The good news for the GOP is that there are other Republicans who are thinking of running in this state Democrats still dominate at the local level. Former U.S. Attorney Tim Griffin and state Senator Gilbert Baker are considering entering the race, and this week one GOPer made his move: Safe Food CEO Curtis Coleman announced the formation of an exploratory committee. A friend of Mike Huckabee, Coleman could tap into the former presidential candidate’s political network and fundraising. More analysis will be in order if he jumps in the race.

Rand Paul eyes Kentucky race

As if the Kentucky Senate race was not complicated enough, the Republican field has a new entrant: Rand Paul, son of former presidential candidate and Texas Rep. Ron Paul, announced this week that he was forming an exploratory committee for Bunning’s seat. (An important note: Paul made it clear that he would not run if Bunning does.)

Paul is an eye surgeon and is a political novice. Combined with the fact that his father’s libertarian views clash with those of a majority of Republican voters (as evidenced during last year’s presidential debates, during which Paul often found himself battling all other candidates on stage), it’s hard to envision Paul become a serious threat to win the GOP nomination against a well-known politician like Trey Grayson. On the other hand, Ron Paul’s ability to mobilize grassroot activists and raise staggering sums of money has been well documented; if some of that excitement transfers to his son, his candidacy could add some confusion to an already chaotic race.

Kansas Democrats still looking for a statewide candidate

Published
by
Taniel
on May 16, 2009
in AR-Sen, KS-Gov and KS-Sen
. 4 Comments

Ever since Barack Obama tapped Governor Kathleen Sebelius as HHS Secretary, Kansas Democrats have been at a loss: Who can they run in next year’s open gubernatorial and senatorial races? The obvious response would have been Sebelius’s Lieutenant Governor Mark Parkinson: Now Governor, he would be able to run as an incumbent, boosting Democrats’ chance to hold on to a vulnerable seat. But Parkinson has made it clear that he wants to join the private sector in 2011.

Democrats have no other clear candidates to run. While Treasurer Dennis McKinney and Attorney General Stephen Six are Democrats, they were recently appointed to their posts by Sebelius and both will have a hard enough time running for re-election; Sebelius can no longer run for Senate since she is in the Cabinet; Rep. Dennis Moore will not leave his House seat; and former Rep. Jim Slattery has ruled out a run.

The party had one hope left: Parkinson had to choose a new Lieutenant Governor, and Democrats hoped he would elevate an up-and-coming politician that would be able to use that prominent position to build name recognition, introduce himself to voters and look formidable enough to be a credible 2010 candidate. Frankly, that might have been the Democrats’ only shot at keeping the Governor’s mansion - not to mention any hope they still harbor to mount a competitive Senate run.

But Parkinson did no such thing. Yesterday, he picked Troy Findley, Sebelius’s former chief of staff. (The pick was described as a surprise by the local press.) Findley immediately declared that he would not run in 2010, making himself a lame-duck within minutes of his appointment and disappointing increasingly desperate Democrats.

To recap, then: Kansas had a popular Democratic Governor who could have been a formidable Senate candidate but a Democratic White House got her to join the Cabinet instead. Now, the state has a Democratic Governor and a Democratic Lieutenant Governor, both of whom are not barred by term limits and could coast to the Democratic nomination of whichever race they choose. Yet, neither will run for anything next year. Talk about a party shooting itself in the foot!

The culprit here seems to be Sebelius rather than Parkinson. Until he was tapped as Sebelius’s running mate in 2006, Parkinson was a partisan Republican: Not only did he serve as a GOP state legislator from 1991 to 1997, he was also the Chairman of the Kansas Republican Party from 1999 to 2003. While he calls himself a Democrat ever since he became candidate for Lieutenant Governor, he is presumably not interested in helping rebuild the state’s Democratic Party. If Sebelius had been interested in that herself, it might have been a wise choice to elevate as Lieutenant Governor a politician from her own party.

Might Blanche Lincoln face a competitive primary?

Published
by
Taniel
on April 21, 2009
in AR-Sen
. 2 Comments

Since primary threats seem to the theme of the day, here’s a post on the possibility of yet another Senator facing a primary challenge. (This is not breaking news whatsoever.)

Blanche Lincoln has emerged as one of the Senate’s most conservative Democrats. A member of Evan Bayh’s centrist caucus, she has been leading the fight to lower the estate tax and was recently the first (and for now only) Democratic Senator to announce her opposition to the Employee Free Choice Act. That has been enough for some to wonder whether Lincoln could be vulnerable in a primary.

In fact, there is a Democrat who is often mentioned as a potential challenger to Lincoln: Lieutenant Governor Bill Halter. He served in the Clinton Administration in the 1990s - first in the Office of Management and Budget, then as the Deputy Commissioner of Social Security - before being elected to his current position in 2006.

Last year, Halter was reportedly considering a challenge to Democratic Senator Mark Pryor - even earning a mention in Congressional Quarterly’s write-up - but he ended up passing on the race. At the time, some thought that he was only positioning himself for another run in the future. From a 2007 article in the Southwest Times Record:

[John Barth said] that speculation about Halter could be the catalyst for a run against Sen. Blanche Lincoln, D-Ark., or merely a way to keep the Arkansas political newcomer’s name at the forefront.

If true, Halter’s maneuver would not be the first time he has touted his interest in one position to better win another. In 2006, he first ran for Governor before abruptly pulling out and throwing his hat in the lieutenant governor field; the coverage he got as a gubernatorial candidate increased his name recognition and positioned him well to win a crowded Democratic primary for Lieutenant Governor.

For now, Halter has been raising funds for his re-election campaign in 2010 - but he is also not silencing speculation that he might run for Senate. In a recent interview, Halter was asked “are you going to run against Blanche?” He chose to sound exasperated: “Oh, for the love of . . . any other questions?”

Arkansas is no liberal state, and Lincoln’s rightward drift does not endanger her as much as it would other Democratic Senators. But there is little to suggest that Halter would challenge the Senator from the left. He looks to be an establishment politician who would provoke a collision of heavyweights if he were to pull the trigger. Halter would probably not rely on the support of grassroots, but on the political and financial network he has built during his years at the Clinton administration and during the years he spent on the board of trustees of Stanford University.

Yet, Halter could still capitalize on the frustration liberals are feeling towards Lincoln - not just in Arkansas, but (especially) across the country. That could mean receiving fundraising and ‘oppo research’ help from the progressive blogosphere. After all, Ned Lamont’s resume did not make him an obvious progressive hero, but he was able to surf the left’s anger to emerge as a credible opponent to Lieberman. As long as Halter does not emerge as a proud conservative himself, he could seek a similar path as Lamont.

Halter could also benefit from the support of organized labor. EFCA is labor’s priority and Lincoln’s announcement that she opposed the reform was the closest thing to a fatal blow the legislation has endured up until now. Sure, unions are weak in Arkansas (that explains why Lincoln is the only Democratic Senator to come out against EFCA) but they could still provide a significant financial and organizational boost.

What is most interesting about the possibility of a Halter run is that Lincoln’s supporters could hardly accuse him of endangering the Democrats’ hold on the seat. As I have noted many times before - most recently on Sunday - the GOP’s bench in Arkansas is stunningly weak; also, Halter has already wno a statewide race and his primary and he would make a strong general election candidate. In short, the situation it thus very different from that of, say, Toomey in Pennsylvania or Simcox in Arizona: A Halter victory would not spell doom for his party’s general election chances, and the opposition party is not strong enough for an incumbent’s fall to necessarily benefit them.

None of this is to say that Halter is leaning towards running: Just as the speculation he might run against Pryor was seen as a preparation for a challenge to Lincoln, his current maneuver could be an attempt to position himself for the open gubernatorial race in… 2014. But as long as Halter refuses to deliver Shermanesque statements about his 2010 plans, it will be enough cause for us to monitor him closely.

Blanche Lincoln draws her first challenger

Published
by
Taniel
on April 19, 2009
in AR-Sen
. 2 Comments

In 2008, Arkansas Senator Mark Pryor ran unopposed and thus won his first re-election race without facing any Republican opposition. The GOP has been dreading a similar scenario in 2010, but they can rest assured: Senator Blanche Lincoln has just drawn her first challenger, state Senator Kim Hendren.

Hendren has had a long political resume, which includes a loss against none other than Bill Clinton! Hendren started his political career as a Democrat and was elected to the state Senate in 1979. In 1982, he lost to Clinton in the gubernatorial race’s Democratic primary. (Clinton had already served two years as Governor before losing his 1980 re-election race, so Hendren faced the tough task of defeating a former Governor.)

Hendren got back into politics in 2001, this time as a Republican. He was elected state representative - and he moved on to the state Senate in 2003. By the midterm elections, Hendren will have served in the legislature for nearly a decade, and that should give him enough credibility to mount a credible challenge to Lincoln.

Yet, Hendren has a big liability: his age. At 71, Hendren has long passed the age at which politicians typically launch their statewide career - especially when they have to defeat an incumbent. (The problem is worsened by Hendren’s intent to frame himself as an outsider candidate. “Washington is out of touch on spending, bailouts and is overpowering state and local governments,” he said in his candidacy statement. Yet, he has spent long enough serving in Little Rock that he could have trouble presenting himself as removed from the centers of power.)

In an attempt to overcome this problem, Hendren has already promised to serve only one six-year term if elected to the Senate. He presented this as a way to ensure that he won’t feel like he needs to meet the expectations of campaign donors. While that is an interesting argument, voters are rarely concerned with ethics (especially when there is no scandal that surrounds Lincoln), and they are likely to be much more concerned about the fact that Hendren would be a backbencher with no prospect to rise in the Senate’s ranks. Small states like Arkansas depend on their legislator’s seniority.

Other potential candidates are state Senator Gilbert Baker [corrected] and former U.S. Attorney Tim Griffin. While Griffin attracted more attention early on, Baker is sending more signals that he intends to run. Baker, who is a former chair of the state party and currently serves as the co-chairman of the Budget Committee, survived the most expensive state legislative campaign in Arkansas history last fall - a sign that he might be ready for a campaign on the bigger stage.

Interestingly, Lincoln defeated state Senators in both her 1998 and 2004 victories; let Hendren and Baker be warned.

All in all, there is no question that the GOP has few candidates to choose from - and none of them are strong enough to be sure to worry Lincoln. Sure, such unknown quantities can turn out to be strong candidates (see Kay Hagan), but they more often fail to catch fire. And the problem for Arkansas Republicans is that they have a truly tiny pool to choose from!

Hendren and Baker are two of only 8 Republican state Senators - out of 35 members! The situation is not much better in the state House, where there are 71 Democrats against 28 Republicans. In other words, Democrats control more than 70% of both chambers. All of the statewide offices are also in Democratic hands, which leaves Rep. John Boozman as the state’s highest-level Republican official.

Yet, not only has Boozman given no hint that he is considering his Senate run (a reluctance perhaps explained by the fact that Lincoln won her first term in 1998 by defeating John’s brother Fay), but he recently offered glowing praise of the Senator. “We may offer different opinions or argue in Washington, but when it comes to what’s best for Arkansas, we are all able to work very well together and make sure we take care of our state,” he said. “The senators have been very good to the 3rd District, especially.”

How serious a challenge Lincoln faces could have consequences on governance, as it could determine how much of an obstacle she becomes to Barack Obama’s agenda. While Lincoln has always been well to the right of her caucus, she has been recently moving further to the right. If she comes to feel more comfortable about her re-election chances by next year, might she mount a less dedicated opposition to her party leadership?

Poll watch: Lincoln under 50%, Specter under 30%

Published
by
Taniel
on March 25, 2009
in AR-Sen and PA-Sen
. 3 Comments

Add Blanche Lincoln to the list of vulnerable Senators. A new PPP poll - the cycle’s first Arkansas survey - finds mediocre results for the Democratic Senator:

  • 45% of respondents approve of her performance, while 40% disapprove. That might not be a catastrophic approval rating, but it certainly is nothing to boast about.
  • When matched-up with two potential Republican opponents, Lincoln slips under 50%: She leads 46% to 38% against former US Attorney Tim Griffin and 48% to 37% against state senator Gilbert Baker.
  • Neither Republicans is well known by voters: 58% of respondents have no opinion of Griffin, 55% have none of Baker. (While Griffin and Baker have yet to jump in the race, both are said to be mulling runs.)

It might not look surprising for a Democrat to be vulnerable in Arkansas, but do not let the state’s Republican trend in presidential elections fool you. Arkansas remains one of the bluest states at any other level: Democrats hold the governorship, both Senate seats, three of the four House seats and supermajorities in both chambers of the state legislature! In 2008, the GOP did not even manage to field a candidate - any candidate - against Democratic Senator Mark Pryor, and it was certainly far from obvious that Republicans would have a shot at unseating Blanche Lincoln in 2010.

PPP’s poll does not suggest that Lincoln is in any sort of hole and she is far from posting Dodd/Specter/Bunning/Bennet-like numbers. It remains to be seen whether the GOP will field a credible challenger, and Lincoln is expected to be one of the best-funded Senators up for re-election in 2010. Yet, there is little doubt that she is vulnerable.

For an incumbent to lead a low-profile opponent by single-digits and in the mid-40s does not inspire confidence. (PPP’s write-up of the poll makes numbers look better for Lincoln than they are. “Allocate the undecideds proportionately in those contests and you find Lincoln getting 54-56% of the vote,” it says. Of course, undecideds should not be allocated proportionately in a match-up featuring a well-known incumbent and a little-known challenger - which is of course any incumbent under 50% is deemed to be vulnerable.)

—

If Lincoln is vulnerable, Arlen Specter is already half-way buried! Two polls of Pennsylvania’s Republican primary were released today; and while Quinnipiac and Franklin & Marshall find contrasting numbers, there is no doubt that Specter is in a huge hole.

[An important caveat: Quinnipiac's sub-sample of Republican is 423, which yields a 4% margin of error. Franklin's sub-sample is only 211; that's a small number, and the results should not be treated as reliable indicators.]

  • Quinnipiac has Toomey crushing Specter among Republican voters, 41% to 27%!
  • Franklin & Marshall provides better news for the Senator, who leads 33% to 18%. The poll included Peg Luksik, who only received 2%. [Big caveat about the margin of error, see above.]
  • Specter’s approval rating among Republicans in the Quinnipiac survey is disastrous: 29% approve, 47% disapprove. Among Democrats, his numbers are far better: 60% approve, 16% disapprove (!) Yet, Quinnipiac finds Specter narrowly trailing a generic Democrat, 33% to 31%.

Quinnipiac is one of the most reliable polling outfits, and they are experienced Pennsylvania pollsters. For them to find Toomey leading by 14% suggests that Specter’s prospects are dismal. Sure, Specter is leading in the F&M poll (the one with the unreliably small sample), but getting 33% is nothing to boast about. Swing State Project points out that Specter never trailed in a poll during the 2004 cycle, when he first trailed Toomey. The first survey for him was the 48-42 lead he posted in… a Quinnipiac poll! Specter ended up surviving by less than 2%.

In short: It is difficult to see how Specter could dig himself out of this hole - especially as there are no more prominent Republicans who could push him across the finish line, as George W. Bush and Rick Santorum did in 2004.

Two small consolations for Specter. First, his numbers are not as bad as those of David Paterson (who trails 67% to 17% in the latest primary survey)…. but that’s not saying much! Second, F&M’s poll suggests Specter would not face that strong a challenge by Peg Luksik if Toomey does not run - and Toomey still has not committed to the race. Yet, it is somewhat surprising to find Peg Luksik as low as 2%. She attracted large support in three different elections in the 1990s (more than 40% in 1990’s gubernatorial primary, more than 10% in the general elections of the 1994 and 1998 gubernatorial elections).

Frustratingly, neither poll contains general election trial heats, denying us a look at how Specter would fare against Democratic opponents. His high approval ratings among non-Republicans suggests he remains electable in a general election, though his numbers are poor when he is matched up against a generic Democrat.