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Strict Standards: array_filter() expects parameter 2 to be a valid callback, non-static method K2::strip_trackback() should not be called statically in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-content/themes/k2/app/classes/k2.php on line 458

Strict Standards: array_filter() expects parameter 2 to be a valid callback, non-static method K2::strip_trackback() should not be called statically in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-content/themes/k2/app/classes/k2.php on line 458

Strict Standards: array_filter() expects parameter 2 to be a valid callback, non-static method K2::strip_trackback() should not be called statically in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-content/themes/k2/app/classes/k2.php on line 458

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Strict Standards: array_filter() expects parameter 2 to be a valid callback, non-static method K2::strip_trackback() should not be called statically in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-content/themes/k2/app/classes/k2.php on line 458

Strict Standards: array_filter() expects parameter 2 to be a valid callback, non-static method K2::strip_trackback() should not be called statically in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-content/themes/k2/app/classes/k2.php on line 458

Strict Standards: array_filter() expects parameter 2 to be a valid callback, non-static method K2::strip_trackback() should not be called statically in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-content/themes/k2/app/classes/k2.php on line 458
Category Archive for ‘AR-02’ at Campaign Diaries
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Archive for the 'AR-02' Category


Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

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Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

Open seats: Rep. Watson retires, Dems struggle in Kansas and recruit in Arkansas

In the previous cycle, just 4 congressmen announced their retirement after January 2008; one of them, Rep. Vito Fossella, did so following a late-breaking cycle This cycle might be different: two representatives have already announced they won’t seek re-election since February started. This morning, Republican Rep. Vern Ehlers confirmed last night’s reports that he would not seek re-election, and this afternoon came news that 77-year old Rep. Diane Watson would retire as well.

While this raises the number of open seats Democrats have to defend in November to twelve, this is one district the GOP have absolutely no chance of picking-up. Located entirely in Los Angeles County and covering much of central LA, CA-33 is one of the country’s most Democratic districts: It voted for Barack Obama 87% to 12%, for John Kerry 83% to 16% and for Al Gore 83% to 14%. Watson’s successor will be decided in the June 8th primary.

That does not mean that the stakes are not high, since districts like this play a major role in determining the Democratic caucus’s ideological make-up. Watson was one of the chamber’s most left-wing members. A member of the Progressive Caucus, she voted against the Iraq War, the Patriot Act, the bill reforming FISA, June 2009’s war supplemental and the free trade agreement with Peru - all passed with substantial help among Democrats; she has also repeatedly supported the progressive budgets, introduced as amendments by the CPC. On the other hand, Watson was not that high-profile a House member, which might be due to the fact that she was already 68 when she first she joined Congress!

As such, her retirement offers the left a chance to get a more active champion out of this staunchly blue a district while also putting them at risk, since it would be quite a blow if Watson’s successor was not a committed progressive. (While it is likely that such a staunchly Democratic district produce a liberal lawmaker, there are plenty of examples of moderate-to-conservative congressmen being elected to such seats; think Harold Ford or Artur Davis, just to name a few.)

All of this said, at the moment it does not appear that the Democratic primary will be any more competitive than the general election: state Speaker Karen Bass is by all accounts preparing to enter the race, in which she would start as the undisputed favorite and should also receive Watson’s endorsement. Bass has a very progressive profile, she is “only” 57 and she would move to the House from a position of power, which potentially positions her to gain some influence on the Hill.

Will she have the primary for herself? Given that state officials are term-limited and that House districts open up so rarely, it might be tough for some Democrats to pass up this opportunity.

More open seats: Dems are in trouble in KS-03, land Arkansas candidates

In a development that was discussed in the comments section of my new House ratings, Democrats are losing their chances of defending a key open seat: KS-03. While I had left the district in the “toss-up column” because of the prospect that Kansas City Mayor Joe Reardon might run, he had in fact announced on Friday that he would do no such thing, which leaves Democrats in a very precarious position as it is now unclear where they will even manage to contest a district they have held since 1999.

State party chairman Larry Gates, who now has a dismal track record of convincing anyone to run for anything, argued in an interview Democrats had good choices left, but when a party is reduced to touting the possibility that congressional staffers could jump in a race, it doesn’t suggest it is preparing to make a full-throated effort to defend the district. The winner of the GOP primary, which opposes among other candidates state Rep. Rep. Kevin Yoder and former state Senator Nick Jordan, will move to the general election favored.

The reason this is rough news for Democrats: Of all the open House races the party is very worried about, KS-03 is a rare district that voted for Obama in 2008. The two Dem-held seats that I rated “lean takeover” (TN-06 and LA-03) both gave McCain over 60% of the vote; many of the other open seats gave the Republican decisive victories. As such, on paper KS-03 should not have been the toughest of these open seats.

On the other hand, many districts in which Obama was far weaker have been historically far more friendly to Democrats, who thus have a deeper bench; as such, the party’s Kansas failure is not necessarily a harbinger of what might happen in AR-01, AR-02 or TN-08.

Case in point, AR-01, where Democrats just landed two elected officials: state Senator Steve Bryles (who has served since 2000) and state Rep. David Cook; they’ll face Marion Berry’s chief of staff Chad Causey. Just a few days ago I was writing about the lack of activity in this district, so this is great news for the DCCC. The party will have more than a fighting chance with an experienced candidate who will run free of any association with Washington Democrats (unless Causey wins the nomination) and will thus be able to appeal to voters’ allegiance to Democrats in non-presidential races.

Democrats are also having no trouble finding candidates in AR-02. After state Speaker Robbie Wills, state Senator Joyce Elliott and Snyder’s former chief of staff David Boling, a fourth candidate announced his candidacy this week: Assistant Attorney General John Adams.

While many Democrats have been hoping that Lieutenant Governor Brian Halter jump in the race, there is now growing buzz that he is just days away from announcing a primary challenge to Senator Blanche Lincoln; this is at least what is being suggested by an unsure-sounding piece at The Arkansas Times and by Markos Moulitsas, who sounds quite confident that he will get what he wants within the next week. I’ll obviously have more on this when it comes to pass.


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Five crucial House races taking shape

AR-02: Democratic candidate jumps in

Democrats have deep benches in the newly open Arkansas districts, which means their primaries are likely to be heated showdowns between some of the state party’s biggest name. The possibility that Lieutenant Governor Brian Halter and Wesley Clark might run in AR-2 did not dissuade House Speaker Robbie Wills to announce his candidacy yesterday. He joins state Sen. Joyce Elliott, who is likely to be the primary’s more liberal option; Wills, meanwhile, seems to be a mainstream Arkansas Democrat, which also means he is not as conservative as Senate Majority Leader Bob Johnson, who is also mentioned as a potential candidate.

At this point, there is no buzz that Republicans might try to find an alternative to former U.S. Attorney Tim Griffin. While I know some of you don’t think his prominent role in the U.S. Attorney’s scandal could hurt him, the GOP could try to find a candidate with less baggage; last year Griffin looked as formidable a challenger as the GOP could dream of, but it’s a whole new ball game by now.

PA-10: Carney lands additional challenger

Speaking of former U.S. Attorneys, yet another decided to put his name on the ballot this fall: Thomas Marino announced he would challenge Rep. Chris Carney. Just like Griffin, Marino was forced to resign in 2007, though his exit was not caused by the scandal that erupted around the Bush administration but rather by his ties to Louis DeNaples, whose aggressive efforts to secure a casino license made him the target of a government probe. That is sure to haunt him on the campaign trail; in fact, Democrats have already gone all-out on the issue. (Marino also faces a competitive primary, most notably against Snyder County Commissioner Malcolm Der.)

Carney is apparently very happy letting Democratic Party officials do the dirty work while he portrays himself above the fray. In the statement he released following Marino’s entry in the race, Carney chose instead to highlight the fact that Republicans tried to convince him to switch parties back in December as proof of his independent streak. “Congressman Carney is proud of his bipartisan record in Congress and was flattered to have recently been approached by Sen. John McCain and other Republican leaders about switching parties,” the statement said. “He believes, however, that his job is not about a political party.” This was something everyone saw coming as soon as we read reports about the GOP’s outreach; Republicans really shoot themselves in the foot on this one.

AR-08: Giffords lands her first one

It looked like Rep. Gabrielle Giffords would be one junior Democrat who would not face too difficult a re-election race, but the GOP has put competitive AZ-08 on the map by recruiting state Sen. Jonathan Paton. The 38-year Paton has only been serving in the state Senate for a year (he was in the state House before), but his decision to run suggests he is really confident he can pull victory: Arizona law requires state politicians to resign if they want to seek another office, so Paton will now have to leave his job in order to challenge Giffords.

Yet, Giffords has won her first two races with surprising ease - both were double-digit victories, which means she considerably overperformed relatively to Barack Obama’s performance - and she’s one of House Democrats’ most successful fundraisers. Furthermore, Arizona could be more or less susceptible to a red wave depending on who wins the GOP’s gubernatorial primary.

SC-05: PPP confirms a veteran congressman is vulnerable

One of the most powerful House Democrats, Budget Committee Chairman John Spratt has served for 28 years, which makes him as entrenched a congressman as it gets and which means he has survived tough national environments before. Yet, a new PPP survey finds that he is vulnerable to losing his red-leaning South Carolina district: Not only is his approval rating in negative territory (41-42) but he is under 50% against both of his Republican opponents; he tops state Senator Mick Mulvaney 46% to 39% and leads Albert Spencer 46% to 37%.

Given the number of Democratic incumbents who have been trailing by decisive margins - think Reid, Lincoln, Snyder, Driehaus, Hill - for Spratt to post a 7% lead against a state Senator does suggest his standing is better than that of other congressmen; but the fact that such numbers might in any way be spun as good news for Democrats speaks to how rough a landscape they are facing. On the other hand, the poll also finds that Obama has a stronger approval rating than you might expect in districts that voted for John McCain by 7% (46-49).

KS-04: The best defense is offense

Given the environment, a staunchly red Kansan district that voted for Bush by 32% and for McCain by 18% is the last place you would expect Democrats to try and mount an offense. Yet, the DCCC has been so excited by state Rep. Raj Goyle’s candidacy in the open KS-04 that they’ve included the district in the list of their 16 top offensive targets! Goyle has been raising large sums of money for a House challenger; he just reported more than $250,000 in the fourth quarter, and he outraised the most prolific Republican 4:1 in the 3rd quarter. But is this a case in which national parties’ obsessive focus on fundraising strength makes them overstate their chances?

Whatever Goyle’s merits, he has been in the state legislature for only 2 years (so it’s not like he is an entrenched political figure) and if he picked up the seat KS-04 would become one of the most conservative districts represented by a Democrat; is that likely to happen in 2010, especially in a state in which the GOP will enjoy huge victories in statewide elections? It’s good of the DCCC to seek to counter  the narrative that it is stuck playing defense, but it would certainly be a huge surprise if Goyle can make the race close.


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With Snyder’s retirement, Dems receive brutal confirmation of worsening landscape

For decades, Arkansas remained one of the most staunchly Democratic states in the country at every level but  presidential elections: the party currently controls both Senate seats, 3 of the 4 House seats, all statewide offices and supra-majorities in both chambers of the state legislature. Since Reconstruction, the GOP has only one a single Senate race and has held the governorship for 17 years.

After 2010, the landscape could be very different. Republicans are now very well positioned to pick-up Blanche Lincoln’s Senate seat and at least one House seat, Rep. Vic Snyder’s AR-02. While the GOP also has hopes of contesting AR-1 and AR-4 (only the Governor’s Mansion remains off limits), the 62-year old congressman just announced he would not seek re-election, handing the DCCC yet another tough open seat to defend.

AR-2 becomes the ninth open seat opportunities for Republicans, but it might very well be the clearest sign yet that 2010 will be a banner year for the GOP: Snyder becomes the first congressman to explicitly link his retirement to his fear of a tough re-election race. But at the start of the cycle who could possibly have expected Snyder would have to spend a single minute worrying about securing another term, let alone become so vulnerable as to choose an early exit?

And yet there he was today, trailing his top-tier Republican opponent by a truly stunning margin in a SUSA poll. How could we have expected that a 7-term incumbent who didn’t even face any opponent in 2008 would trail his challenger 56% to 39%? (There’s justifiable criticism aimed at this survey, which was commissioned by Firedoglake in an attempt to scare Democratic congressmen into opposing the health-care bill, but most of those concerns are directed at the survey’s second part.) It’s obviously impossible to know just what motivated Snyder’s decision, nor whether he was already leaning towards retirement before SUSA’s poll came out; all we can say is that he announced he would not seek re-election just hours after word spread that he was trailing by 17% in a new survey.

If every Democrat that is struggling in a 2010 poll were to retire, where would that leave the party? The NRCC might not have a Tim Griffin in every district, but if Snyder is trailing by 17%, what must the situation be for all the junior Democrats who represent as tough if not tougher districts?

Just like with Bill Ritter and Chris Dodd’s retirements, Snyder’s can be considered good news for Democrats - but only if we forget about how the political landscape looked just 8 months ago. The SUSA poll shows Snyder was so vulnerable that his party might very well be better off without him on the ballot: it is tough to envision any incumbent trailing by 17% eleven months before the election coming back to win it. This is all the more so the case because Democrats have a strong bench in the district, which should allow them to field a solid candidate without the baggage of incumbency. (More on this below.)

On the other hand, AR-2 was nowhere on our radar screen at the start of 2009 - and it should never have gotten there. Even when Griffin announced his candidacy in September, he looked to be coming to the race with too much baggage (see below) to guarantee he’d be able to mount that formidable a campaign against Snyder. And as recently a November, PPP had Snyder edging Griffin 44% to 43%. While that suggested he’d be in a lot of trouble, it is obviously an incomparable result to SUSA’s.

My point: AR-2 was already highly vulnerable prior to Snyder’s retirement, so today’s development isn’t in itself a bad news for his party. But it is the undeniable confirmation that the landscape has deteriorated to a stunning extent for Democrats, leaving them bracing for tougher losses than were imaginable just this fall.

It becomes all the harder for Democrats to take the sting out of Snyder’s retirement when we consider that he was closer to the party’s mainstream than other lawmakers who represent marginal districts. He is not a member of the Blue Dog Coalition; he voted for the health-care bill, against the Federal Marriage Amendment, the ban on partial-abortion, the bankruptcy bill and even the Iraq War. Even if Democrats hold the district, odds are the new congressman will be to Snyder’s right. (Update, with an endearing fact about Snyder: He never raised any money during off-years, which probably makes him unique.)

So what is the situation in AR-2 going forward? Like much of the South, the district has been trending more Republican. In 2000, it voted for George W. Bush by just 1%; three years later, it went for Bush by 3%; in 2008, McCain prevailed by 10%. In short: Voters are increasingly willing to abandon their ancestral allegiance to the Democratic party, which gives Republicans an obviously great shot at a pick-up.

Yet, Democrats can undeniably defend this district. Arkansans have clearly not given up all attachment to the party, which has a lot of well-known and established options to choose from - one of the benefits of the unshakable dominance the party has mentioned at the local level. Their best bet is Lieutenant Governor Brian Halter, who lives in the district; he was last seen mulling a primary run to Blanche Lincoln. The district is less conservative than the state-at-large, so Halter would be going to a more friendly district; he is prominent enough that voters could feel they are voting for a Democrat they can trust, and he would not be encumbered by a tenure in unpopular Washington.

Other potential Democratic candidates include state Sen. Shane Broadway, state Speaker Robbie Wills, Little Rock Mayor Mark Stodola and state Senate President Bob Johnson, who considered challenging Lincoln from the right. In short, the DCCC doesn’t have to worry about AR-2 going the same way as KS-3 or TN-6, where they are still struggling to find a candidate.

Griffin should remain the presumptive GOP nominee. Yet, it’s important to note that he comes witha glaring weakness: he is intimately connected to the U.S. Attorney firing scandal. Here’s what I wrote about him back when he entered the race: “A former aide to Karl Rove, he was appointed U.S. Attorney to replace one of those Bush dismissed in 2006. Griffin was not just a side player in the controversy. His appointment was central to the scandal; it infuriated Democrats, helped them paint the Justice Department as driven by politics, led to a congressional probe - a series of events that forced Griffin to resign from his position in May 2007, just 6 months after being appointed.” (More here.) With Snyder running for re-election, this race would have been a referendum on the incumbent and on Democrats’ record in Washington; but an open seat contest could make it easier for Democrats to turn the spotlight on Griffin.

On the other hand, it appears the DCCC will avoid an open seat in MI-2 MI-1, where Rep. Stupak was considering running for Governor in a district that twice voted for George W. Bush. He strongly indicated today that he was more than likely to run for re-election instead. There’s no indication for now that the GOP will try to target him, so MI-2 MI-1 is one seat that should be safe for Democrats. This should also relieve Michigan liberals, as the last thing they presumably wanted was to have as their standard-bearer one of their ultimate villains of 2009.

But if Democrats care for more bad news, they can look over at Massachussetts. Martha Coakley now trails her own internal polls (!), while a GOP internal poll has Scott Brown leading by a stunning 15%. More on the special election tomorrow.


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NRCC tries to showcase map expansion efforts

In case you were wondering what is the one thing the NRCC would like to see congealed as conventional wisdom, its attempt to get minuscule ad buys in 3 districts held by veteran Democrats covered as a major strategic move should give you the answer: Republicans want to show they are serious about expanding the playing field so that the prospect of a red wave is treated seriously, which would in turn allow them to have an easier time recruiting and fundraising in marginal districts.

Who are the three Democrats the NRCC chose for this somewhat artificial demonstration? Rep. Vic Snyder (AR-02), Rep. John Spratt (SC-05) and Rep. Earl Pomeroy (ND-AL). All three have served in the House for a long time (respectively 12, 16 and 26 years); all three represent districts that twice voted for George W. Bush and then for John McCain; none of them has faced a competitive challenge in recent cycles.

The spots attack these 3 Democrats for voting for health-care reform, so they could be a preview of what the NRCC has in store for its 2010 advertisement. (Here’s the one aimed at Snyder.) But the people the NRCC is aiming at are not swing voters but political observers like you and me - people who in seeing these ads might themselves: “Wow, the NRCC must be really serious about targeting just about any Democrat if they’re willing to spend money on Pomeroy despite the fact that he faces no top-tier opposition.” (Of course, Spratt and Snyder do face tougher challenges, the former from state Senator Mike Mulvaney and the latter from former U.S. Attorney Tim Griffin.)

The bottom-line: Given that the NRCC’s fundraising troubles haven’t been resolved this cycle - far from it - they are in no position to buy actually air time for now. As such, there’s little use for them to waste money at this point on districts like Tom Perriello or Steve Driehaus’s (no one disputes that these Democrats are highly vulnerable next year, so there’s nothing to prove) whereas symbolic buys that will at least showcase their determination to expand the map could have more value.

One more veteran Democrat targeted, this time in Iowa

Republicans are sure optimistic enough that they continuing to try to throw all they’ve got at the wall and see what sticks. Their latest target in the ranks of entrenched Democratic incumbents is Rep. Leonard Boswell (IA-03), who the GOP has long considered weak; at 75, Boswell has spent decades in politics (though only 12 years in the House) and he could be vulnerable if the electorate is an anti-incumbent mood. This week, two prominent Republicans made it clear they will run in 2010: former Iowa State University wrestling coach Jim Gibbons and second-term state Senator Brad Zaun; both would make strong challengers.

That said, the GOP faces a number of major obstacles to making this race competitive. For one, IA-03 is not a conservative district (Barack Obama won a 10% victory, and the district was split roughly equally in 2000 and 2004); much of the GOP’s tune has been that the Democratic brand is growing so unpopular that incumbents sitting in red districts will be submerged, but Boswell does not enter in that group.

Second, and here again unlike other veteran Democrats who are being targeted, Boswell did face a competitive race recently: He beat state Senator Jeff Lamberti in what was one of 2006’s hottest races. While he was surely helped by the national environment, that doesn’t erase the fact that this forced him to remember how to campaign, stay in touch with the base and keep a ground infrastructure that should serve him next year. In short, the GOP cannot count on the element of surprise in this district. 

Finally, desmoinesdem points out that the stakes might not be particularly high in this race: In 2011, Iowa will lose a district and the independent redistricting commission is widely expected to remedy the situation by roughly combining this district and Republican Rep. Latham’s IA-04. It’s unlikely that Boswell would then choose to seek re-election, which means that Latham will be favored to win the new IA-03 in 2012 no matter who wins this year.

Believe it or not, but the GOP also targets freshmen

Meanwhile, one junior Democrat who is in serious danger next year is Rep. Frank Kratovil. In 2008, Kratovil won a tiny victory in a district McCain won by 18%, mostly because of dramatic divisions among Republicans. State Senator Andy Harris is now back for a rematch, and he can count not only on a more favorable environment but also on the fact that the deep wounds of last year’s primary will be forgotten by November 2010. To make sure people take his bid seriously rather than dismiss him as a poor candidate who might again ruin the GOP’s chances, released an internal poll today: It shows him leading Kratovil 52% to 39%. Sure, partisan surveys should always be taken with a big grain of salt, but that sure is a big margin.


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Republicans receive encouraging poll results from Arkansas, Iowa

We’re back to the 80s in Iowa: Branstad and Grassley hold big leads

As soon as former Iowa Governor Terry Branstad signaled he would seek to regain his old job, we knew that Chet Culver would be one of the cycle’s most endangered incumbents. And a new Des Moines Register poll suggests the race might not even be competitive: Branstad leads by a stunning 24% margin - 57% to 33%. Despite the fact that his approval rating is not dismal (40-49) and his favorability rating remains positive (47-46), Culver finds himself in David Paterson-territory! (This survey, conducted by Selzer & Co., is one of the country’s most reputable polls so it’s hard to dismiss these results - especially since Rasmussen found Culver facing just as large a deficit earlier this fall.)

The magnitude of the hole Culver finds himself in might be due to Branstad’s strength (the former governor has a 60% to 22% favorability rating), but a lot of it stems from the incumbent’s vulnerability and from voters’ worry about the state economic situation. Matched-up to businessman Bob Vander Plaats, Culver trails 45% to 37% - a damning margin given that it is well outside of the margin of error and that 64% of voters have no opinion of Vander Plaats. Culver leads by 7% and 8% against even lesser-known Republicans, but he fails to break 42%.

As if that was not enough good news for Republicans, the poll also finds Senator Chuck Grassley is as safe as can be in his quest for a sixth term. Democrats have been touting the candidacy of attorney Roxane Conlin, who trailed by only 12% in a recent Research 2000, but the DMR has Grassley leading 57% to 30%. His approval rating stands at 57%; that might be a dip from the 75% he enjoyed earlier this year, but it will take far more of a decline for this Senate race to get interesting.

In AR-02, Rep. Snyder is in trouble

The GOP has been recruiting candidates against long entrenched Democratic representatives who haven’t received a competitive challenge in years - sometimes decades. Combined with the absence of reliable House polling, that has made it hard to determine which are actually vulnerable and which have a solid enough hold on their district that they’ll coast to re-election no matter who they face. PPP remedies the situation for one such district, finding that Rep. Vic Snyder does have a lot to worry about heading into 2010 - and it’s not even because of the identity of his challenger.

Former U.S. Attorney Tim Griffin’s entry in the race was heralded as a NRCC coup, but he is little-known (only 33% of respondents have an opinion about him) and he doesn’t poll substantially better than two unknown Republican candidates. That doesn’t help Snyder mount a meaningful lead, however: He is up 44% to 43% against Griffin, 45% to 42% against David Meeks and 44% to 42% against Scott Wallace. Snyder’s approval rating is not that terrible (42% to 46%), but it looks like nearly everyone who views his performance unfavorably is looking to vote against him.

And that’s exactly why so many Democratic incumbents are facing terrible polls right now: Voters are so committed to ousting Reid, Lincoln or Culver that they are already willing to back their opponent, no matter how obscure a candidate we’re talking about. That is not the case for Republican incumbents: Vitter and Burr might face underwhelming approval rating, but voters who are skeptical of them aren’t rallying behind Democratic challengers; this allows them to enjoy large leads, even if they’re stuck under 50%.

Paterson continues to sink, but Gillibrand finally improves her standing

Believe it or not, David Paterson continues to sink. His approval rating and his re-elect enjoy a slight 2% uptick in the latest Siena poll, but his match-up against Andrew Cuomo leads to unbelievable results: 75% to 16% in the Attorney General’s favor, by far the largest lead he has enjoyed all year. A reminder: In the November 2008 survey, Paterson led Cuomo 53% to 25%. What a disaster 2009 has been for the New York Governor.

Worst still for Paterson: He trails Rick Lazio for the very first time, as the little-remembered former congressman grabs a 42% to 39% edge. That removes the last bright spot Paterson was enjoying in these polls. No surprise in Paterson’s match-up against Giuliani (56% to 33% for the former Mayor), nor in Cuomo’s results (he leads Giuliani 53% to 41% and he crushes Lazio 67% to 22%). With Cuomo enjoying 67% approval rating, it’s looking as unlikely as ever that anyone could stop his march to the Governor’s Mansion. It’s not even like voters would be annoyed at him for leaving his position to take on an incumbent: 59% of respondents want Cuomo to run for Governor rather than for Attorney General.

Over on the Senate side, Kirsten Gillibrand finally manages to right her numbers: Her re-elect reaches 33%, by far the highest level she has reached all year. Her favorability rating stands at 34-24; that still means that she has a lot of work to do to introduce herself to New Yorkers, but she hadn’t enjoyed that large a net rating since the spring. Most encouraging for Gillibrand: She dramatically improves her general election numbers. While she trailed by 13% against Giuliani in October, she is now behind 49% to 43%; against Pataki, she recovers from a 5% deficit to grab a 45% to 44% edge - the first time in 5 polls she has enjoyed any type of lead.


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Griffin’s entrance unexpectedly strong NRCC coup, but it’s not enough to make Snyder top GOP target

The NRCC scored a rather unexpected recruitment coup this morning, when former U.S. Attorney Tim Griffin announced he would challenge Rep. Vic Snyder in Arkansas’s 2nd District.

Griffin was long considered a likely challenger to Senator Blanche Lincoln, but he abruptly pulled the plug on that run back in May. As such, I remained skeptical Griffin would downgrade his ambitions to the House for no obvious electoral reason: He would have been the highest-profile Republican running for Senate and there is far more evidence pointing to Lincoln’s vulnerability than to Snyder’s.

I can think of a number of potential explanations. First, Griffin might be more eager to run for something now that the political environment looks more favorable to his party than it did back in May; since the Senate race’s GOP field has gotten rather crowded since his withdrawal, he figured he missed his chance to challenge Lincoln and chose to challenge Snyder instead.

Second, Griffin might be motivated by Republican confidence that the cycle will be a disaster for Democrats and that 2010 will be a mirror image of 2006, in that any incumbent in somewhat hostile territory - however entrenched they are - will be vulnerable. (As I argued in early August, both parties genuinely believe that next year could favor them, which is making everyone’s recruitment job easier.) In other words, there is no need for a poll to show Snyder is as endangered as Lincoln; he must be by the very fact that he is a Democrat.

Since I do not subscribe to the view that Democrats are heading straight off the cliff, I am not prepared to label AR-02 one of the GOP’s top pick-up opportunities. Arkansas is the Southern state that has stayed the most loyal to Democrats at the presidential level (the party enjoys super majorities in both chambers of the legislature, holds all statewide positions including the 2 Senate seats and 3 of the 4 House seats) and AR-02 is the most Democratic of Arkansas’s four districts (Kerry lost by 3%, Obama by 10%).

Furthermore, Southern Republicans have had a hard time dislodging entrenched Democratic incumbents in cycles since 1994, and Snyder is certainly entrenched. First elected in 1996, he has hardly broken a sweat ever since: He received 58% in 2000 and 2004, topped 60% in 2006 and did not face any Republican challenger in either 2002 or 2008.

That does mean he has not honed his campaigning skills in a while, yes, but it also means that it is in no way obvious that Snyder is so vulnerable that a credible Republican opponent is enough to catapult the district at the center of the 2010 map.

Finally, Griffin comes with a major weakness of his own: he is intimately connected to the U.S. Attorney firing scandal. A former aide to Karl Rove, he was appointed U.S. Attorney to replace one of those Bush dismissed in 2006. Griffin was not just a side player in the controversy. His appointment was central to the scandal; it infuriated Democrats, helped them paint the Justice Department as driven by politics, led to a congressional probe - a series of events that forced Griffin to resign from his position in May 2007, just 6 months after being appointed.

From The Los Angeles Times:

The documents show that in one case, officials were eager to free up the prosecutor’s slot in Little Rock, Ark., so it could be filled by Timothy Griffin, a GOP operative close to White House political advisor Karl Rove, at all costs. “We should gum this to death,” Sampson e-mailed Monica Goodling, the Justice Department’s liaison to the White House. He said officials should talk up Griffin’s appointment and try to “forestall” any criticism from Capitol Hill. Just “run out the clock” on any objections, he said.

From CNN:

Griffin’s predecessor, Bud Cummins, was one of the eight attorneys fired last year, sparking a firestorm of criticism against the Justice Department and spurring a wave of hearings aimed at uncovering whether the ousters were politically motivated. The Justice Department and Attorney General Alberto Gonzales originally said Cummins and other attorneys were fired because of performance, but they later acknowledged that Cummins was dismissed to make room for Griffin, a former aide to Karl Rove, President Bush’s political adviser.

A congressional investigation into the firings is ongoing. E-mails released as part of the probe show that White House and Justice Department officials discussed for months how to get Griffin into the U.S. attorney’s office in Little Rock. The e-mails also revealed discussions about whether the Justice Department should tap a controversial provision of the Patriot Act allowing Gonzales to appoint U.S. attorneys without Senate confirmation.

In August, old emails written by Karl Rove were released, putting Griffin’s name in the news once again. Now, that was not enough to trip Christie’s quest for New Jersey’s governorship, but Christie is facing such an unpopular incumbent that no story about Christie seems to be impacting the race. Based on Snyder’s electoral history, we certainly can’t say that he is so polarizing that a challenger’s weaknesses simply won’t matter.

All of this said, Griffin’s resume combined with his political connections and the NRCC’s determination to put Arkansas on the map make his entry an important development. In a state the national GOP is often forced to neglect, Griffin is as strong a challenger as the NRCC could have hoped for - and as strong a challenger Snyder has had to face this decade. At the very least, he will force Snyder to campaign and the DCCC to spend money; and if 2010 does take the same direction as 1994 and 2006 and if long-safe Democrats indeed start feeling the heat of having their party control the White House, he’ll be in a position to take advantage.

A side note: Griffin is the latest in a series of Bush-appointed U.S. Attorneys who have transitioned to electoral politics: Chris Christie is well positioned to win New Jersey’s governorship and Pat Meehan has made the PA-07 open race one of the year’s most contested. This suggests Democrats have something to look forward to in the 2014 or 2018 cycles (!), when U.S. Attorney appointed by Obama will be in a position to run for office!


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GOP candidates are popping up in House races, including one who’ll challenge a Republican

AK-AL: Don Young’s second opponent is a Republican

Don Young’s re-election prospects have gotten unexpectedly complicated in recent weeks. As it became clear that his two 2008 opponents would not seek a rematch - Sean Parnell replaced Sarah Palin as Governor and Ethan Berkowitz is running for Governor as well - it looked like Young might be spared that competitive a race. But that was before Democratic state Rep. Harry Crawford entered the contest, guaranteeing that the race will be worth watching.

Now, the ethically embattled Young has another challenger to worry about - this time a Republican. A former state legislator, radio talk show host Andrew Halcro has announced he will run. His conservative profile means we should have a repeat of the 2008 primary, in which the Club for Growth-endorsed Parnell hit Young for fiscal irresponsibility (Young barely survived after weeks of counting). On labor and fiscal matters, Young is a rare Republican moderate: one of the few who voted in favor of EFCA in 2007, he often bucks his party on appropriation votes.

Yet, there is one major twist. In 2008, Parnell represented the Palin wing of the Alaska party - the one that claims to prefer fiscal restraint and makes a big show of refusing stimulus funds rather than the one that prides itself on securing congressional earmarks. Halcro might use similar arguments as Parnell did, but he will do so as a one of the state’s most outspoken opponents of Palin: Ever since receiving 10% in an independent bid for Governor in 2006, he has been a conservative critic of the governor. That makes it highly unlikely Palin or Parnell will get involved in next year’s primary.

It will be interesting to see whether the Club is interested in getting involved again; Alaska is certainly a cheap enough state that they can do so without draining their financial resources - and for once they couldn’t be accused of helping Democrats pick-up a seat. Indeed, Crawford would probably prefer facing Young than Halcro: Alaska is red enough that it’s unlikely a Republican without any ethical baggage loses a statewide race. Even if Young is a towering figure in state politics, the bottom line is that he is under federal investigation and might be indicted any moment.

Combine the fact that the DCCC’ best chance is to face Young and the fact that Democrats can at least count on Young’s vote on some issues whereas they’d have nothing to expect from a new-guard Republican congressman, and we’re left with the rare conclusion that Democrats could be better-off having an incumbent survive a primary challenge.

In Dem-held districts, meanwhile, NRCC scores or nears recruitment coups

The most noteworthy is former U.S. Attorney Patrick Meehan, who announced he will run for Joe Sestak’s open House seat. Given that Meehan was deemed credible enough to be a top-tier gubernatorial contender, he should be quite formidable in a congressional race and he makes PA-07 far more competitive than it would be otherwise. The only reason I am not making a bigger deal out of this is that I already wrote a lengthy analysis when the rumors first started, so I refer you back to this post.

In AR-02, the NRCC has been talking up its chances against entrenched Blue Dog Vic Snyder for months. According to a Politico report, it might be on its way towards recruiting a top-tier candidate as former U.S. Attorney Tim Griffin is considering the race. I will wait for Griffin to actually make an announcement before analyzing this in more detail, however, because for now I share SSP’s skepticism: Griffin was expected to run for Senate until he ruled out a run this spring. Given that he could have cleared the GOP primary (unlike Meehan in PA) and that Lincoln is far more obviously vulnerable that Snyder, why would he do so only to consider a House race months later?

In the NH-02 open seat, the GOP is close to getting its wish: former Rep. Charlie Bass now says he is leaning towards seeking his old seat back. His 2006 defeat is enough not to make him that formidable a candidate, but Republicans don’t have enough of a NH bench left to be picky. If Bass does get in, it would make NH-02 a key 2010 battleground. There is also speculation that the NRCC might land a state Senator in TX-17, the most Republican district represented by a Democrat; Chet Edwards survived with only 53% against a low-tier candidate last year, so a higher-profile contender would go a long way towards making him endangered.

OH-18: GOP does find a state Senator after all

Back in August, the last of the 3 Republican legislators mentioned as challengers to Rep. Zach Space announced he would not run in 2010. With the NRCC clearly disappointed, I wrote that this would force the NRCC to find a Plan B and reduce Space’s vulnerability. I might have spoken a bit too soon, as a state Senator is getting in after all: Bob Gibbs just filed a candidacy statement, giving Republicans a higher profile candidate than I expected them to land at this point. That said, Gibbs does not look like he is a top-tier contender like the Republicans who declined the race.

While some of his legislative district falls in the 18th congressional District, most of it is in the 16th District. This obviously reduces Gibbs’ appeal since most of Space’s constituents have no exposure to him - not to mention that he will have to campaign in unfamiliar territory. Furthermore, the one county he represents that falls in the 18th District is staunchly conservative so Gibbs has no track record as to how he will fare in more competitive areas. Finally, Gibbs served in the state House until 2009, which further reduces the share of the district he has a history representing.


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In aftermath of cap-and-trade vote, NRCC targets 14 other Democrats

As the House took a high-profile and controversial vote last Friday, we knew what was coming: Attack ads! While many vulnerable Democrats voted against the Waxman-Markey, the NRCC wasted no time going after those who supported it: A new wave of ads and robo-calls targets 14 Democrats who voted for cap-and-trade despite representing red-leaning districts.

Only one Democrat earns the right to be targeted by a TV spot: Rep. Tom Perriello (VA-05), an obvious Democratic target whose re-election bid is rated a toss-up in my ratings. The ad starts with footage of Obama saying that his cap-and-trade proposal will result in skyrocketing energy prices and concludes by hitting Perriello for his party loyalty. “Tom Perriello’s voting with Obama and with Pelosi over and over. Call Perriello. Tell him he was wrong to vote for the Pelosi energy tax,” says the narrator:

The 13 other Democrats are being targeted with a radio ad. Here’s the version running against Rep. Vic Snyder (AR-02):

The NRCC has two obvious goals. First, drive down the popularity of these incumbents to endanger their 2010 re-election bid. At least eight of these Democrats are considered highly vulnerable; in 2008, they prevailed by winning the support of voters who also chose McCain and the GOP’s priority is to reconquer these ticket-splitter.

Second, scare these Democrats into switching their vote and opposing cap-and-trade if the legislation returns to the House in the form of a conference report. Last week, Waxman-Markey passed by a narrow 219 to 212 margin so all it would take is for 4 representatives to change their mind for the bill to be killed; pressuring those supportive Democrats who represent the most conservative districts is the surest way for the GOP to get there.

Of course, any backlash these Democrats might endure will only be heightened by the party’s reluctance to fully stand behind Waxman-Markey. The narrow margin by which the bill passed and the dozens of Democrats who voted “no” have done as much to make the bill look controversial as anything the NRCC could say. By contrast, legislation that passes on a 245-186 vote will be covered differently by the press and won’t be as likely to become electorally explosive.

Furthermore, it would be silly for these 14 Democrats think that they would suddenly put the cap-and-trade issue behind them if they oppose an eventual conference report: The NRCC would certainly not hold back from pointing out that they voted in favor of initial passage, and such congressmen would only be weighed down by the need to explain their change of heart. Yet, while a flip-flop might be unlikely, there is no doubt that this is what the GOP is aiming at.

How else to explain the presence on this list of Rick Boucher (VA-09), Bart Gordon (TN-06) and Ike Skelton (MO-04)? (The NRCC is running radio against all three.) While all represent districts that gave McCain more than 59% of the vote, they are veteran congressmen elected in 1982, 1984 and 1976, respectively. They are never described as vulnerable and they very rarely show up on such lists. To a lesser extent, the same goes for Baron Hill (IN-09): He is not expected to face a competitive race in 2010 but his conservative voting record makes him a potential vote-switcher.

(In February, the NRCC ran radio ads attacking Gordon and Skelton for supporting the stimulus but the ads were released before the House voted on the conference report; neither flip-flopped on that second vote.)

Another surprise appearance on this list is Bruce Braley (IA-01), a relatively liberal Democrat who represents the only clearly Democratic district of the list: IA-01 went for Gore and Kerry and gave Obama 58% of the vote, so I’m not sure what the NRCC is trying to do here. (He was also included among the targets of those February stimulus ads.)

Besides these five Democrats, the other targeted congressmen are all to some extent vulnerable: John Boccieri (OH-16), Alan Grayson (FL-08), Deborah Halvorson (IL-11), Mary Jo Kilroy (OH-15), Betsy Markey (CO-04), Tom Perriello (VA-05), Vic Snyder (AR-02), Zack Space (OH-18) and Harry Teague (NM-02). (I’ve talked enough about these races not to launch in a detailed analysis now, but you can check here for more race-specific information.)

There are some notable absences, like Frank Kratovil (MD-01) and Steve Driehaus (OH-01), but the NRCC is going after at least one other Democrat - Suzanne Kosmas (FL-24) - by launching robocalls on another topic altogether: NASA. Their attack is rather disingenuous since Kosmas voted against the appropriations bill that cut millions from NASA funding; the GOP circumvents that little problem and attacks her nonetheless for not prevent[ing] that cut.”

(For those more interested in the legislative battle behind Friday’s vote, Politico published an interesting story on Nancy Pelosi’s whip efforts.)

In other House news, the GOP landed a top contender in NY-29: Corning Mayor Tom Reed announced he would take on Rep. Eric Massa, who defeated a Republican incumbent last fall. While Corning is too small a city to make Reed that threatening a candidate (its population hovers around 10,000), his political experience and the NRCC’s enthusiasm for his candidacy make him a very credible challenger. As most of the GOP’s 2010 candidates are likely to do, Reed emphasized fiscal issues and his concern for “irresponsible deficit spending.” Note that the NRCC’s preferred candidate was Assemblyman Brian Kolb, but Kolb decided not to run when he became the state Assembly’s Minority Leader; other Republicans could still jump in, including a pair of state Senators.


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NRCC goes after Kratovil and red-district Democrats, loses a challenger in North Carolina

Earlier this year, the NRCC launched a massive attack against 33 Democratic representatives; but only one incumbent found himself targeted by a TV ad: Zach Space (OH-18). A few months have passed and the Republican committee is using the same strategy.

In a new wave of attacks that targets 17 Democrats, TV ads will be aired in only one district: MD-01, held by Frank Kratovil. Additionally, radio ads will air against six Democrats: Vic Snyder (AR-02), Suzanne Kosmas (FL-24), Harry Teague (NM-02), Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (SD-AL), Glenn Nye (VA-02) and Tom Perriello (VA-05).

What do all these Democrats have in common? They all represent conservative-leaning territory: John McCain won all but VA-02, a district in which Obama received 2% but where George W. Bush prevailed by 16% in 2004. In 2010, Republicans are hoping that these district’s conservative nature will reassert itself since the environment is unlikely to be as favorable to Democrats as it was over the past two cycles and they are thus looking to soften these incumbent’s image by blasting them as partisan Democrats and as liberals.

And the GOP has long decided how it will do that: Use Nancy Pelosi as a boogeywoman. The NRCC’s previous wave of ad attacked Blue Dog Democrats on spending matters. “Nancy Pelosi pushed a budget with a trillion dollar deficit,” said the ad that aired in OH-18. “And Space voted to let Nancy Pelosi get her way.”

Now, the NRCC is focusing on Pelosi’s recent back-and-forth with the CIA. “Lying to Congress would be a crime, so why won’t Pelosi investigate the “crime”?,” asks the ad that will air in Maryland’s 1st District. “Frank Kratovil sided with Pelosi to block an investigation. Frank Kratovil, voting with Nancy Pelosi 89% of the time.”

Contrary to what the GOP seems to think, it has not gained the upper-hand on this issue: Polls suggest that the CIA’s reputation is damaged enough that the public did not automatically dismiss Pelosi’s claims. Yet, what might not be a winning argument for the NRCC in most parts of the country could very well be a successful one in red districts like MD-01: Pelosi is very unpopular among Republicans and conservative-leaning voters (a constituency among which these 7 Democrats need to do well) were likely appalled by the Speaker’s contention that the CIA lied.

Democrats who have represented very hostile districts for decades (think Rep. Taylor of Mississippi) have had the time to convince their Republican constituents that they are not automatic votes in favor of the leadership of their party. As such, they have become very difficult to dislodge. But Kratovil, Kosmas, Teague, Nye and Perriello are all freshman and sit in red-leaning districts: the NRCC thus believes it can turn conservative-leaning voters against them, which explains why they are all being targeted.

Herseth Sandlin has easily won her 3 re-election races so her situation is different, but there is some buzz about her facing her first serious challenger - not to mention that she is mulling a gubernatorial run so the NRCC might be looking to pressure into leaving the House. As for Vic Snyder, he is one of those entrenched Democrats I mentioned above but the NRCC has by now made it clear it will go after Snyder and AR-01’s Marion Berry.

To truly make thee Arkansas Democrats vulnerable, the GOP will have to land top challengers, but given how entrenched both Snyder and Berry are the NRCC can hope to convince anyone to run unless they demonstrate their willingness to spend hard money on these districts. Indeed, early advertising is one thing, recruiting credible challengers is quite another. While the GOP has met some success in blue-leaning districts like OR-04 and CA-47, it still has work to do against the more obviously vulnerable Democrats.

In NC-08, a swing district in which Larry Kissell won a tough battle in 2008, Republicans were talking up the potential candidacy of Mike Minter. A former football, Minter looked interested in the race but, in a clear blow to the NRCC, he recently announced that he would not run. (This might open the door to a comeback by former Rep. Hayes, though he would probably not be the GOP’s best option.)

As much as I would like to think that athletes cannot just waltz their way into the political arena and win, there is enough evidence to suggest that Minter would have been a formidable candidate - starting with Democrat Heath Shuler, another football star who successfuly ran against an incumbent in 2006. Minter spent his entire career playing for the Carolina Panthers, which gives him huge name recognition and popularity in this district. (The Panthers are based in Charlotte, part of which is contained in NC-08.)

The GOP might have more success in WI-03: Rep. Ron Kind, who has easily held since his first victory in 1996, has not mentioned as a potentially vulnerable incumbent but he could soon draw a serious opponent: state Senator Dan Kapanke is signaling his interest in challenging Kind. WI-03 only narrowly went for Gore and Kerry (3% each time) but Obama received 58% of the vote. As such, it is not the most obvious place for an unexpected Republican offensive, but trying to expand the map to usually uncontested districts certainly did not hurt Democrats in 2006.


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NRCC hoping to go where it hasn’t gone lately

Early in a cycle, national parties launch large waves of attack that target dozens of U.S. representatives, many of whom will not end up facing a competitive race. Yet, the list of chosen districts tells us a lot about the party’s offensive strategy - and the NRCC is letting us know that it intends to mount a real offensive for seats that are not commonly thought of as top-tier opportunities.

The NRCC’s first mass offensive, which occurred in early February, targeted 30 House Democrats with radio ads devoted to the stimulus bill. Now, the committee is targeting 43 Democrats for supporting Barack Obama’s budget - or rather, for supporting Nancy Pelosi’s budget, since the GOP is doing its best to separate congressional Democrats (who are generally unpopular) from the President (who enjoys high approval ratings).

33 of these incumbents are only being stung by robocalls; radio ads are running in 9 districts; and only 1 Democrat - Ohio’s Zach Space -  is finding himself targeted by a TV ad.

“Just how fast is Congressman Zack Space spending your money?” asks the announcer. “Newspapers say Space and Nancy Pelosi authorized 1.2 trillion dollars in spending in less than two months. Now they’re spending even faster. Nancy Pelosi pushed a budget with a trillion dollar deficit. And Space voted to let Nancy Pelosi get her way.”

Space picked-up an open seat in 2006, boosted by the scandals that engulfed Rep. Ney; in 2008, he easily won re-election, 60% to 40%. He is certainly vulnerable in 2010 because he represents a conservative district that voted for McCain 52% to 45%; yet, he looks to be a good fit for the district and he is less obviously endangered than many Democrats who won their first election last fall.

That the NRCC is choosing to make this the one district in which they are airing a TV ad is a recognition on the GOP’s party that OH-18 is the type of district they will need to contest if they want any hope of meaningfully cutting the Democrats’ majority next year: Just as winning back TX-22 and KS-02 was not enough in 2008, winning back heavily conservative seats like AL-02 and ID-01 will not do much for the GOP in 2010. What they need is to reconquer conservative districts with relatively entrenched incumbents.

Just like OH-18, many of the 43 districts that are now being targeted by the NRCC meet that description. First, the 9 districts that are being targeted by radio ads:

Allan Grayson (FL-18), Debbie Halvorson (IL-11), Charlie Melancon (LA-03), Dina Titus (NV-03), Carol Shea-Porter (NH-01), Michael Arcuri (NY-24), Mary Jo Kilroy (OH-15), Kathy Dahlkemper (PA-03) and Chet Edwards (TX-17)

5 of these Democrats were first elected in 2008, and 2 others are sophomore lawmakers. While there are no surprises on this list, it is noteworthy that a number of these districts are not what we would consider the early top-tier of 2010 contests. While Dahlkemper, Shea-Porter and Grayson are sure to be on the GOP’s target list, others should be harder to defeat.

Dina Titus and Mary Jo Kilroy represent blue-trending districts, and the GOP’s confidence is certainly noteworthy - especially in NV-03, which dramatically swung to Democrats last year. While IL-11 remains a swing district, Debbie Halvorson did easily win her open seat and Obama prevailed by a decisive margin. Michael Arcuri was supposed to be ultra-safe last year but he received a shockingly low 52% - a clear indication that he has a weak base of support in NY-24 - but he will not let himself be dulled by a false sense of security in 2010. As for Charlie Melancon, he represents a conservative district but looks to be well entrenched - at least until the next round of redistricting disrupts the state’s congressional lines.

In other words, districts like NV-03, OH-15 and IL-11 are places Democrats are favored to keep but in which the GOP needs to do well if it wants to regain its status as a party that should be taken seriously and could conceivably regain a majority. The same principle applies to the 33 Democrats who are only the target of robocalls:

John Adler (NJ-03); Jason Altmire (PA-04); Tim Bishop (NY-01); John Boccieri (OH-16); Leonard Boswell (IA-03); Allen Boyd (FL-02); Chris Carney (PA-10); Gerry Connolly (VA-11); Peter DeFazio (OR-04); Steve Driehaus (OH-01); Brad Ellsworth (IN-08); Gabby Giffords (AZ-08); John Hall (NY-19); Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (SD-AL); Baron Hill (IN-09); Jim Himes (CT-04); Steve Kagen (WI-08); Paul Kanjorski (PA-11); Larry Kissell (NC-08); Ron Klein (FL-22); Dan Maffei (NY-25); Eric Massa (NY-29); Jerry McNerney (CA-11); Dennis Moore (KS-03); Gary Peters (MI-09); Loretta Sanchez (CA-47); Mark Schauer (MI-07); Kurt Schrader (OR-05); Joe Sestak (PA-07); Heath Shuler (NC-11); Vic Snyder (AR-02); John Spratt (SC-05); Bart Stupak (MI-01).

The inclusion of some of these districts is expected: Adler, Altmire, Carney, Driehaus, Kagen, Kanjorski, Kissell, Klein, Massa, McNerney, Moore, Peters and Schauer have all picked-up their seat over the past two cycle, and the GOP has to test their vulnerability as soon as possible to prevent them from having the time to entrench themselves. Other districts could conceivably be vulnerable, but it’s difficult to consider Ellsworth, Herseth Sandlin, Hill or Maffei as even being part of the second-tier of competitive races - especially as the GOP has no credible candidate in sight in some of these states.

Finally, there are some truly surprising inclusions on this list, at least considering the playing field we have gotten used to over the past two cycles: Tim Bishop (NY-01), Allen Boyd (FL-02), Peter DeFazio (OR-04),  Vic Snyder (AR-02) and Bart Stupak (MI-01) are certainly not names we have gotten to used to hearing in the context of competitive races as they regularly coast to comfortable re-elections. Yet, all of these Democrats represent swing districts that are very competitive at the presidential level - all but OR-04 were won by George W. Bush in 2004, and Bush prevailed in that district four years earlier (making OR-04 one of only two district to switch from Bush to Kerry).

Bishop, Boyd, DeFazio, Snyder and Stupak remain undoubtedly favored to win another term, and for the GOP to even make one of them worry about re-election would already be a significant achievement. So the fact that these Democrats are being targeted should once again be taken as a sign that the GOP needs that it needs to seriously think about expanding the field to places it did not seriously contest over the past few cycles - places (like OR-04) it has not seriously contested for decades!

And it looks like the GOP is already having some success in its simple goal of being competitive in districts that should be competitive on paper. In AR-01 Rep. Marion Berry has had little reason to be concerned about keeping his job since he first won his seat in 1996; yet, the district has taken a dramatic swing rightward over the past decade. While AR-01 voted for Al Gore by 1% in 2000, it chose George W. Bush by 5% in 2004 and John McCain by 16% in 2008 - a dramatic collapse of Democratic performance that could open the door to a credible Republican congressional challenge.

For the NRCC to successfully put AR-01 on the radar screen will require a top-notch candidate, and the GOP is already touting buisnessman Rick Crawford, known in the district for his agricultural broadcasting. Crawford, who just formed an exploratory committee, could be all the GOP needs to test how loyal Arkansas remains to its Democratic history.



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    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

    Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55
  • Election night cheat sheet

  • Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

    Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55
  • Final ratings: Democrats brace for historic losses

  • Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

    Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55
  • What to watch for down-ballot

Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

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