Archive for the 'AR-01' Category

Open seats: Rep. Watson retires, Dems struggle in Kansas and recruit in Arkansas

Published
by
Taniel
on February 10, 2010
in AR-01, AR-02 and KS-03
. 9 Comments

In the previous cycle, just 4 congressmen announced their retirement after January 2008; one of them, Rep. Vito Fossella, did so following a late-breaking cycle This cycle might be different: two representatives have already announced they won’t seek re-election since February started. This morning, Republican Rep. Vern Ehlers confirmed last night’s reports that he would not seek re-election, and this afternoon came news that 77-year old Rep. Diane Watson would retire as well.

While this raises the number of open seats Democrats have to defend in November to twelve, this is one district the GOP have absolutely no chance of picking-up. Located entirely in Los Angeles County and covering much of central LA, CA-33 is one of the country’s most Democratic districts: It voted for Barack Obama 87% to 12%, for John Kerry 83% to 16% and for Al Gore 83% to 14%. Watson’s successor will be decided in the June 8th primary.

That does not mean that the stakes are not high, since districts like this play a major role in determining the Democratic caucus’s ideological make-up. Watson was one of the chamber’s most left-wing members. A member of the Progressive Caucus, she voted against the Iraq War, the Patriot Act, the bill reforming FISA, June 2009’s war supplemental and the free trade agreement with Peru - all passed with substantial help among Democrats; she has also repeatedly supported the progressive budgets, introduced as amendments by the CPC. On the other hand, Watson was not that high-profile a House member, which might be due to the fact that she was already 68 when she first she joined Congress!

As such, her retirement offers the left a chance to get a more active champion out of this staunchly blue a district while also putting them at risk, since it would be quite a blow if Watson’s successor was not a committed progressive. (While it is likely that such a staunchly Democratic district produce a liberal lawmaker, there are plenty of examples of moderate-to-conservative congressmen being elected to such seats; think Harold Ford or Artur Davis, just to name a few.)

All of this said, at the moment it does not appear that the Democratic primary will be any more competitive than the general election: state Speaker Karen Bass is by all accounts preparing to enter the race, in which she would start as the undisputed favorite and should also receive Watson’s endorsement. Bass has a very progressive profile, she is “only” 57 and she would move to the House from a position of power, which potentially positions her to gain some influence on the Hill.

Will she have the primary for herself? Given that state officials are term-limited and that House districts open up so rarely, it might be tough for some Democrats to pass up this opportunity.

More open seats: Dems are in trouble in KS-03, land Arkansas candidates

In a development that was discussed in the comments section of my new House ratings, Democrats are losing their chances of defending a key open seat: KS-03. While I had left the district in the “toss-up column” because of the prospect that Kansas City Mayor Joe Reardon might run, he had in fact announced on Friday that he would do no such thing, which leaves Democrats in a very precarious position as it is now unclear where they will even manage to contest a district they have held since 1999.

State party chairman Larry Gates, who now has a dismal track record of convincing anyone to run for anything, argued in an interview Democrats had good choices left, but when a party is reduced to touting the possibility that congressional staffers could jump in a race, it doesn’t suggest it is preparing to make a full-throated effort to defend the district. The winner of the GOP primary, which opposes among other candidates state Rep. Rep. Kevin Yoder and former state Senator Nick Jordan, will move to the general election favored.

The reason this is rough news for Democrats: Of all the open House races the party is very worried about, KS-03 is a rare district that voted for Obama in 2008. The two Dem-held seats that I rated “lean takeover” (TN-06 and LA-03) both gave McCain over 60% of the vote; many of the other open seats gave the Republican decisive victories. As such, on paper KS-03 should not have been the toughest of these open seats.

On the other hand, many districts in which Obama was far weaker have been historically far more friendly to Democrats, who thus have a deeper bench; as such, the party’s Kansas failure is not necessarily a harbinger of what might happen in AR-01, AR-02 or TN-08.

Case in point, AR-01, where Democrats just landed two elected officials: state Senator Steve Bryles (who has served since 2000) and state Rep. David Cook; they’ll face Marion Berry’s chief of staff Chad Causey. Just a few days ago I was writing about the lack of activity in this district, so this is great news for the DCCC. The party will have more than a fighting chance with an experienced candidate who will run free of any association with Washington Democrats (unless Causey wins the nomination) and will thus be able to appeal to voters’ allegiance to Democrats in non-presidential races.

Democrats are also having no trouble finding candidates in AR-02. After state Speaker Robbie Wills, state Senator Joyce Elliott and Snyder’s former chief of staff David Boling, a fourth candidate announced his candidacy this week: Assistant Attorney General John Adams.

While many Democrats have been hoping that Lieutenant Governor Brian Halter jump in the race, there is now growing buzz that he is just days away from announcing a primary challenge to Senator Blanche Lincoln; this is at least what is being suggested by an unsure-sounding piece at The Arkansas Times and by Markos Moulitsas, who sounds quite confident that he will get what he wants within the next week. I’ll obviously have more on this when it comes to pass.

Tracking movement in AR-01, MN-03 and the two Orlando districts

Published
by
Taniel
on February 5, 2010
in AR-01, FL-08, FL-24 and MN-03
. 5 Comments

Rep. Paulsen unlikely to struggle in MN-03

As 2008 came to a close, Democrats were expected to mount a top-tier challenge against freshman Rep. Erik Paulsen, one of 2008’s unlikeliest Republican victors since he won a district Obama carried. Paulsen’s victory was partly due to the lackluster campaign of Democratic nominee Ashwin Madia, one of the many failed House candidates who confirmed that having served in the Iraq War is not enough to be elected. Madia had secured the DFL’s endorsement at the party’s convention over state Senator Terri Bonoff, whom Democrats were hoping would run again in 2010 but who announced this week she would do no such thing.

Two Democrats are still seeking the DFL’s nomination: psychiatrist Maureen Hackett, who might not need the DCCC’s attention since he appears to be self-funding, and Minnesota PTA President Jim Meffert. Things could get interesting in Democrats right their ship nationally, but as of now Bonoff’s move leaves Republicans with one less seat of their own to worry about.

Interestingly, Bonoff voiced interest in running in 2012, after redistricting. Not only could that yield significant change because Minnesota might see its number of seat change (it looks unlikely at this point, but not impossible), but if Democrats pick-up the Governor’s Mansion this year they would be able to draw a favorable map. Given that he represents an Obama district in which more Democratic precincts can easily be added, Paulsen would surely be the party’s main target.

AR-01 sees little activity since Berry’s retirement

While Democrats recently met some recruitment success in AR-02, they are still searching for their flag-bearer in the other Arkansas open seat they must defend. In recent days, two Democrats announced they would not run - the first of which was Democrats’ strongest potential candidate, Attorney General Dustin McDaniel. The move was entirely expected (McDaniel has been eying the Governor’s Mansion, which he’ll probably run for in 2014 when Mike Beebe is term-limited), but the DCCC is probably nonetheless disappointed. Another Democrat also bowed out of the race: state Sen. Robert Thompson.

One Democrat who is preparing to run is Chad Causey, Berry’s chief of staff. I doubt this is going to get Democrats that excited. While congressional staffers sometimes pull off victories of their own, it is tough to see Democrats hold AR-01 if they cannot nominate a candidate whom voters have already grown to know and be comfortable with; otherwise, how can they resist Arkansans’ increasing comfort with shedding their loyalty to the Democratic Party?

That said, the party has such a deep bench in the state that they still have many elected officials who could run, including state Senators Steve Byrles, Paul Bookout, Tim Wooldridge, Kevin Smith as well as a number of state representatives. Furthermore, the Republican side has been just as curiously inactive: Radio owner Rick Crawford was already in the race when Berry retired and no other Republican has joined him since then, though a couple of state legislators have yet to rule out doing so. I would argue that this is one district in which the quality of the GOP nominee is less important than the quality of the Democratic nominee, however.

Gutierrez drops out in FL-8

For months, Republicans struggled to recruit a credible nominee against Rep. Alan Grayson but in recent months a number of candidates have emerged to challenge the outspoken progressive, namely state Rep. Kurt Kelly and businessman Bruce O’Donoghue, who appears to be the NRCC’s preferred candidate because he might be willing to self-fund a campaign. (Note that Grayson is one of the biggest self-funders in Congress, so spending could quickly skyrocket.)

O’Donoghue and Kelly’s entry allowed the GOP establishment to marginalize 28-year old developer Armando Gutierrez, whom for a time in the fall had come to look as the party’s probable nominee. Thanks to his family’s connections to Southern Florida’s political establishment, Gutierrez had received the endorsements of at least 2 House members and numerous state legislators, but his lack of familiarity with the Orlando area (he had just moved to the region from Southern Florida a few weeks before he entered the race) led to NRCC concerns that they were endangering what they view as one of their top opportunities of the cycle.

Yet, Gutierrez announced this week that he was dropping out, explaining that he was now more interested in trying to bring a baseball team to Orlando. “I feel I can do more for the Central Florida economy by bringing a baseball team to the community than I can as a Member of Congress,” he said. This development leaves Kelly, O’Donoghue pitted against attorney Todd Long and Tea Party activist Patricia Sullivan in what will be one of Florida’s many highly contested GOP primaries: Given that these fights will not be settled until late August, might this help Democrats?

The question applies not just to FL-8 but also to the Senate race, where the summer battle ought to be brutal, and to FL-24, where the Republican field might be getting even more crowded soon. With Winter Park City Commissioner Karen Diebel and state Rep. Sandy Adams headlining the GOP primary for now, the NRCC has nonetheless been looking for an alternative because of their preference for someone who can afford buying himself a congressional seat: Craig Miller, the CEO of Ruth’s Chris Steakhouse, is now reportedly planning to run and use his deep pockets to finance his challenge to Kosmas. That should also make for a rough primary.

Yet another GOP opening: Rep. Marion Berry retires

Published
by
Taniel
on January 25, 2010
in AR-01
. 2 Comments

Democrats can be grateful Arkansas only has 4 House seats, because the state has become a source of unending good news for the GOP. Just a week after Rep. Vic Snyder announced he would not seek re-election, Marion Berry joined the ever-growing list of Democratic retirees, giving the GOP yet another golden opportunity at picking-up an open seat.

While AR-1 has never sent a Republican to the House, it gave John McCain 59% of the vote last year. Needless to say, Republicans are salivating at the prospect of contesting it incumbent-less. Despite the GOP’s confidence, it will be no slam-dunk; but given the national environment this gives Republicans as good a shot at gaining a foothold in Northeastern Arkansas as they can hope for.

AR-1 is Democrats’ twelfth open seat, 10 of which are vulnerable. That compares to only 2/3 competitive Republican open seats, though the party is defending a total of 14. Given that waves make themselves felt the most sharply in open seats, this widening discrepancy has become a major source of anxiety for the DCCC. If incumbents from marginal districts continue to retire, it will be time for Democrats to start worrying about losing their majority, a possibility I have for now not seriously entertained.

Berry’s decision is brutal for Democrats because the 7-term representative did not face a tough rough re-election race: His retirement single-handedly creates an additional vulnerability for his party, which was not the case with Snyder’s exit. It is hard to fault a 67-year old with wanting to retire, but so many veteran Democrats’ willingness to leave their seat vulnerable when they could have easily defended it and left office in 2012 instead has to be tough for the DCCC to deal with (Berry, Brian Baird, John Tanner, even Dennis Moore).

On the other hand, the potential loss of AR-1 is less damaging to Democrats in regards to having a working majority. While Snyder has a fairly liberal voting record, Marion Berry is one of House Democrats’ more conservative members. A member of the Blue Dog Coalition, he was one of a few dozen Democrats to support the Federal Marriage Amendment, the Real ID Act and permanent repeal of the estate tax. He also supported the Patriot Act, the trade deal with Peru, the Iraq War Resolution and the FISA Amendment, all measures opposed by a majority of his party. In 2009, he did vote for the health-care bill, a somewhat surprising decision that came a few months after his opposition to the cap-and-trade legislation.

That Arkansas is giving Democrats so many headaches is hardly surprising. Unlike many other Southern states, Arkansas underwent little realignment in 1994 and in 2002 (in fact, Democrats picked-up a Senate seat that year, even as countless of their incumbents unexpectedly fell in GA, SC or AL). While Republicans now have solid majorities in most Southern states’ congressional delegations, 5 out of 6 of Arkansas’s congressmen are Democrats. In a cycle that has become the GOP’s third opportunity in 16 years to take over the South, Arkansas was bound to produce numerous Republican opportunities.

The other Southern state in this position is Tennessee, and it’s no coincidence that AR and TN are the two Southern states in which Al Gore competed in 2000. Indeed, AR-1 has come a long way since 2000, when it gave Gore a 2% victory; four years later, it voted for George W. Bush over John Kerry by 5%; in 2008, John McCain pulled off a dramatic 16% swing as he carried the district 59% to 38%. In short, the district has been quickly trending Republican over the past decade alone - and this is the first time Democrats will have to defend it since this transformation.

All of this said, Democrats have no reason to be discouraged: they have a good chance at defending AR-1. Arkansas has remained as blue as it gets at every level but the presidential one, which means the party have a very strong bench from which to choose a candidate, whereas Republicans might struggle to field a top-tier contender. It also means district voters have not given up their loyalty to the Democratic Party (it’s probable many AR-1 residents have never voted for a Republican in a non-presidential federal race other than in the 1996 Senate race); the fact that the party should be able to nominate someone who voters already know will help them carry that loyalty to the AR-1 race.

Democrats’ strongest potential candidate appears to be Attorney General Dustin McDaniel, though McDaniel has been said to be interested in the Governor’s Mansion. Other potential contenders are state Senator Robert Thompson, state Rep. Keith Ingram and many other state legislators. On the GOP side, the one candidate already in the race - Rick Crawford, who owns a local radio channel - hadn’t gained much traction for now, so the NRCC will be looking elsewhere, but it has far less state legislators to choose from; state Senator Johnny Key and state Rep. Davy Carter are mentioned.

Interestingly, we could soon still have a third open seat in Arkansas: Republican Rep. John Boozman is now actively contemplating a Senate run. That leaves Democratic Rep. Mike Ross as the only member of the state’s House delegation who does not look on the brink of retirement. Democrats should be rather depressed that this is the case, since Ross is arguably the most conservative of the group, and one of those who holds the most responsibility in the health-care bill’s trouble since he led Blue Dog efforts to postpone debate on the legislation from July to October, a delay that has now come back to haunt Democrats. In any case, Ross is only 49, so it would be a surprise for him to follow Snyder and Berry out the door. At this point, however, Democrats would be foolish to take anything for granted.

NRCC works to ensure vulnerable Blue Dogs are not once again left unchallenged

Published
by
Taniel
on May 8, 2009
in AR-01, ID-01, LA-04, ND-AL, OH-18 and TN-08
. 1 Comment

Two days ago, the NRCC celebrated two recruitment successes against traditionally safe Democrats. Puzzled by the GOP’s excitement in at least one of these districts, I warned that Republicans should be careful not to be distracted: Given all the red territory Democrats conquered in 2006 and in 2008, they are many seats they should be a higher priority to them and their limited funds than CA-47.

The NRCC has also been working to expand the map in other districts that have not been competitive in recent cycles - but this time, their strategy is more logical as they are not losing sight of Democrats who should be their primary targets.

A few days ago, the committee launched a new wave of ads; unlike earlier mass offensives that attacked dozens of Democrats, this one targets a far narrower group of only 5 Democrats:

  • Marion Berry (AR-01): He represents an increasingly Republican district that voted for Al Gore in 2000 but gave John McCain a 21% victory last fall.
  • Charlie Melancon (LA-04): Melancon has faced no trouble winning re-election over the past two cycles despite representing a district that gave McCain 61%.
  • Earl Pomeroy (ND-AL): First elected in 1992, he has faced no trouble winning re-election since he survived a tough race in 2004. Interestingly, the district swung leftward last year: Bush received 63%, McCain received 53%.
  • Zach Space (OH-18): This district is not overwhelmingly conservative but it nonetheless leans red (Bush received 57%, McCain 43%). Interestingly, Space is the only Democrat to have been targeted by a NRCC-sponsored TV ad so far this cycle. But something changed
  • John Tanner (TN-08): A conservative Democrat, Tanner has easily won re-election since 1988; yet, his district has become increasingly Republican. In 2000, Al Gore won by 3%; last year, McCain prevailed by 13%.

As you are no doubt noticing, this is not the list of the GOP’s top takeover opportunities. Except for Space, these incumbents are well entrenched and not obviously vulnerable, while districts like AL-02, ID-01, MD-01 are not on this list. Does this mean that the NRCC is wasting its money? Certainly not.

At this early point of the cycle, the NRCC is not interested in spending too much money softening up Walt Minnick or Bobby Bright because those incumbents will be endangered in 2010 no matter what happens in 2009; they barely won last year, they represent conservative strongholds and they are certain to draw top-tier opposition. (In Idaho, for instance, Treasurer Ron Crane has been traveling to Washington in preparation for a challenge to Rep. Minnick.)

Yet, the 5 incumbents on this list are not certain to receive a credible challenge - even though the demographics of their districts makes them obvious targets. Indeed, what do these 5 Democrats have in common? Two things:

  1. They all won their 2006 and their 2008 races with ease and faced minimal opposition.
  2. They all represents districts won by George W. Bush in 2004 and for John McCain in 2008. (Interestingly, two of them went for Al Gore in 2000.)
  3. They are all part of the Blue Dog Coalition.

In short: The GOP has an interest in softening them early because it is the only way to ensure that at least some of them end up on the list of endangered incumbents in the summer and fall of 2010.

Many Blue Dog Democrats are so entrenched that nothing Republicans can do will hurt their poll numbers; but how can the NRCC know whether any of them might not be immune to their district’s rightward drift without going after them to test their strength and to signal to potential Republican candidates that they will have the national party’s attention?

The question the GOP wants answered is: Which (if any) of these Blue Dog Democrats have not solidified their conservative credentials enough that the district’s conservative voters could be turned against them? Accordingly, the new radio ads attack them for supporting congressional Democrats’ economic agenda; they questioned their Blue Dog credentials. (Listen to the ad against Melancon here.)

It is possible all 5 of these Democrats will prove too solid for the GOP to spend much time on them; but the fact of the matter is that the NRCC needs to target such districts if it wants to climb back to a majority.

Consider this a preview of the full ratings of the 68 Dem-held vulnerable House seats, which I will (finally) post on Monday.

NRCC hoping to go where it hasn’t gone lately

Published
by
Taniel
on April 13, 2009
in AR-01, AR-02, FL-02, FL-18, IL-11, LA-03, MI-01, NH-01, NV-03, NY-01, NY-24, OH-15, OH-18, OR-04, PA-03 and TX-17
. 2 Comments

Early in a cycle, national parties launch large waves of attack that target dozens of U.S. representatives, many of whom will not end up facing a competitive race. Yet, the list of chosen districts tells us a lot about the party’s offensive strategy - and the NRCC is letting us know that it intends to mount a real offensive for seats that are not commonly thought of as top-tier opportunities.

The NRCC’s first mass offensive, which occurred in early February, targeted 30 House Democrats with radio ads devoted to the stimulus bill. Now, the committee is targeting 43 Democrats for supporting Barack Obama’s budget - or rather, for supporting Nancy Pelosi’s budget, since the GOP is doing its best to separate congressional Democrats (who are generally unpopular) from the President (who enjoys high approval ratings).

33 of these incumbents are only being stung by robocalls; radio ads are running in 9 districts; and only 1 Democrat - Ohio’s Zach Space -  is finding himself targeted by a TV ad.

“Just how fast is Congressman Zack Space spending your money?” asks the announcer. “Newspapers say Space and Nancy Pelosi authorized 1.2 trillion dollars in spending in less than two months. Now they’re spending even faster. Nancy Pelosi pushed a budget with a trillion dollar deficit. And Space voted to let Nancy Pelosi get her way.”

Space picked-up an open seat in 2006, boosted by the scandals that engulfed Rep. Ney; in 2008, he easily won re-election, 60% to 40%. He is certainly vulnerable in 2010 because he represents a conservative district that voted for McCain 52% to 45%; yet, he looks to be a good fit for the district and he is less obviously endangered than many Democrats who won their first election last fall.

That the NRCC is choosing to make this the one district in which they are airing a TV ad is a recognition on the GOP’s party that OH-18 is the type of district they will need to contest if they want any hope of meaningfully cutting the Democrats’ majority next year: Just as winning back TX-22 and KS-02 was not enough in 2008, winning back heavily conservative seats like AL-02 and ID-01 will not do much for the GOP in 2010. What they need is to reconquer conservative districts with relatively entrenched incumbents.

Just like OH-18, many of the 43 districts that are now being targeted by the NRCC meet that description. First, the 9 districts that are being targeted by radio ads:

Allan Grayson (FL-18), Debbie Halvorson (IL-11), Charlie Melancon (LA-03), Dina Titus (NV-03), Carol Shea-Porter (NH-01), Michael Arcuri (NY-24), Mary Jo Kilroy (OH-15), Kathy Dahlkemper (PA-03) and Chet Edwards (TX-17)

5 of these Democrats were first elected in 2008, and 2 others are sophomore lawmakers. While there are no surprises on this list, it is noteworthy that a number of these districts are not what we would consider the early top-tier of 2010 contests. While Dahlkemper, Shea-Porter and Grayson are sure to be on the GOP’s target list, others should be harder to defeat.

Dina Titus and Mary Jo Kilroy represent blue-trending districts, and the GOP’s confidence is certainly noteworthy - especially in NV-03, which dramatically swung to Democrats last year. While IL-11 remains a swing district, Debbie Halvorson did easily win her open seat and Obama prevailed by a decisive margin. Michael Arcuri was supposed to be ultra-safe last year but he received a shockingly low 52% - a clear indication that he has a weak base of support in NY-24 - but he will not let himself be dulled by a false sense of security in 2010. As for Charlie Melancon, he represents a conservative district but looks to be well entrenched - at least until the next round of redistricting disrupts the state’s congressional lines.

In other words, districts like NV-03, OH-15 and IL-11 are places Democrats are favored to keep but in which the GOP needs to do well if it wants to regain its status as a party that should be taken seriously and could conceivably regain a majority. The same principle applies to the 33 Democrats who are only the target of robocalls:

John Adler (NJ-03); Jason Altmire (PA-04); Tim Bishop (NY-01); John Boccieri (OH-16); Leonard Boswell (IA-03); Allen Boyd (FL-02); Chris Carney (PA-10); Gerry Connolly (VA-11); Peter DeFazio (OR-04); Steve Driehaus (OH-01); Brad Ellsworth (IN-08); Gabby Giffords (AZ-08); John Hall (NY-19); Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (SD-AL); Baron Hill (IN-09); Jim Himes (CT-04); Steve Kagen (WI-08); Paul Kanjorski (PA-11); Larry Kissell (NC-08); Ron Klein (FL-22); Dan Maffei (NY-25); Eric Massa (NY-29); Jerry McNerney (CA-11); Dennis Moore (KS-03); Gary Peters (MI-09); Loretta Sanchez (CA-47); Mark Schauer (MI-07); Kurt Schrader (OR-05); Joe Sestak (PA-07); Heath Shuler (NC-11); Vic Snyder (AR-02); John Spratt (SC-05); Bart Stupak (MI-01).

The inclusion of some of these districts is expected: Adler, Altmire, Carney, Driehaus, Kagen, Kanjorski, Kissell, Klein, Massa, McNerney, Moore, Peters and Schauer have all picked-up their seat over the past two cycle, and the GOP has to test their vulnerability as soon as possible to prevent them from having the time to entrench themselves. Other districts could conceivably be vulnerable, but it’s difficult to consider Ellsworth, Herseth Sandlin, Hill or Maffei as even being part of the second-tier of competitive races - especially as the GOP has no credible candidate in sight in some of these states.

Finally, there are some truly surprising inclusions on this list, at least considering the playing field we have gotten used to over the past two cycles: Tim Bishop (NY-01), Allen Boyd (FL-02), Peter DeFazio (OR-04),  Vic Snyder (AR-02) and Bart Stupak (MI-01) are certainly not names we have gotten to used to hearing in the context of competitive races as they regularly coast to comfortable re-elections. Yet, all of these Democrats represent swing districts that are very competitive at the presidential level - all but OR-04 were won by George W. Bush in 2004, and Bush prevailed in that district four years earlier (making OR-04 one of only two district to switch from Bush to Kerry).

Bishop, Boyd, DeFazio, Snyder and Stupak remain undoubtedly favored to win another term, and for the GOP to even make one of them worry about re-election would already be a significant achievement. So the fact that these Democrats are being targeted should once again be taken as a sign that the GOP needs that it needs to seriously think about expanding the field to places it did not seriously contest over the past few cycles - places (like OR-04) it has not seriously contested for decades!

And it looks like the GOP is already having some success in its simple goal of being competitive in districts that should be competitive on paper. In AR-01 Rep. Marion Berry has had little reason to be concerned about keeping his job since he first won his seat in 1996; yet, the district has taken a dramatic swing rightward over the past decade. While AR-01 voted for Al Gore by 1% in 2000, it chose George W. Bush by 5% in 2004 and John McCain by 16% in 2008 - a dramatic collapse of Democratic performance that could open the door to a credible Republican congressional challenge.

For the NRCC to successfully put AR-01 on the radar screen will require a top-notch candidate, and the GOP is already touting buisnessman Rick Crawford, known in the district for his agricultural broadcasting. Crawford, who just formed an exploratory committee, could be all the GOP needs to test how loyal Arkansas remains to its Democratic history.