Archive for the 'AK-Sen' CategoryPage 2 of 6

And we go on

Published
by
Taniel
on November 5, 2008
in AK-AL, AK-Sen, CA-04, GA-Sen, MD-01, MN-Sen, OH-15, OR-Sen, Uncategorized, VA-05 and WA-08
. 3 Comments

Call it post-Election withdrawal. There is something unsettling about the first few days after an election, when political junkies realize that the simplest acts of their daily routine have become meaningless. There is no tracking poll by Research 2000 to wake up to, nor any reason to refresh Gallup.com at 1pm. Wednesday afternoons will not bring us the latest CNN/Time delivery, nor will Monday evenings be the occasion of a Rasmussen extravaganza. We will have no new campaign ad to dissect for months, nor will we excitedly react to the DCCC’s latest Tuesday night expenditures. And looming on the horizon are no debates, infomercials, town halls and Election Nights.

Thankfully, there still are a dozen uncalled congressional races - including some looming recounts and a few runoffs. This will certainly not provide the same level of excitement as we lived over the past month, but hopefully enough to satisfy some of our thirst for electoral drama.

Here is a run-through of the 4 remaining Senate races (Democrats have picked-up 5 already, while incumbents have survived in KY, LA and MS):

  • Alaska: This is simply incredible. Just 8 days after being convicted on 7 felony charges, Ted Stevens is not only alive - but he is ahead! With nearly all precincts reporting, he leads 48% to 46,5%, a difference of about 3,500 votes. However, 40,000 absentee ballots have to be counted, which is obviously a significant number that could change a lot in the race. In typical Alaska fashion (remember the Young-Parnell primary?), counting those absentee ballots is not likely to start for a few days and could take a few weeks.
  • Georgia: Chambliss looked set to pass 50% throughout the night, but as African-American neighborhoods reported less his percentage dwindled down and as thousands of previously unreported early votes were accounted for. The totals now have Chambliss ahead at 49.8%, with Jim Martin at 47%. The Atlanta Journal Constitution and the AP have called a runoff, which would take place on December 2nd and surely become a heated multi-million battle.
  • Minnesota: As many had predicted, the Coleman-Franken dogfight has turned into the tightest Senate race in the country - perhaps even the tightest congressional contest. Coleman and Franken traded leads throughout the night - every few minutes, even, around 4am as the last precincts were reporting. Now, Coleman - who has declared victory - is holding on by the tiniest of margins (less than 500 votes) with some provisional ballots evidently still being counted and some counties adjusting their totals. The race appears set to go to a recount, which might not be resolved until December! For now, the advantage goes to Coleman.
  • Oregon: Republican Senator Gordon Smith is holding on to a 9,000 vote lead with 77% of estimated votes counted. However, only about half of Multnomah County (Portland)’s estimates votes have been counted, and Merkley is likely to gain tens of thousands more votes there than his opponent. Given where the outstanding votes are slated to come from, Merkley is still favored to come out ahead (Blue Oregon is following the results with great detail).

At the House level, Democrats have already picked-up a net 19 seats and all of their seats have been called, so the 8 remaining races are all on Republican turf:

  • AK-AL: Truly stunning. Republican Rep. Don Young is leading 52% to 44% though with 40,000 absentee left to count the AP is holding off a call. Young seemed to be the most vulnerable of all Republican incumbents, but Alaska once again proved to be a tough state for Democrats to win in. If Young pulls it off - and it looks like he will - this will go down as the biggest upsets of the 2008 cycle.
  • CA-04: Two years after losing a close race to Rep. Doolittle, Democrat Charlie Brown is trailing by just 400 votes against Republican candidate McClintock. There are many absentee ballots left to be counted, however, and we will probably not know the result for a while.
  • LA-04 and LA-07: In these two districts, the election yesterday was only a primary. The general election will be held in early December. The former is a toss-up, the latter leans Republican.
  • MD-01: With all precincts reporting, Democratic candidate Kratovil has a 915 vote lead in this conservative open seat. There are about 32,000 absentee ballots to be counted, so this could go either way.
  • OH-15: Mary Joe Kilroy is in the same situation she was in two years ago. She was expected to beat GOP Rep. Pryce, trailed by 3,000 on Election Night and cut that led by half after provisional ballots were counted. Now, Kilroy was expected to beat GOP candidate Stivers but she fell so far behind on Election Night that the AP and CNN called the race for her opponent. The race was later uncalled. It’s unclear what is going on at the moment. CNN has Stivers leading by 12,000 while other outlets have a 321 vote margin… If the race is tight, it will likely not be decided for more than a week as there are many provisional and absentee ballots that will have to be counted.
  • VA-05: Tom Perriello led through the night against Republican Rep. Goode in what would have been the biggest Democratic upset of the night but the margin tightened today - Goode even took a 400 vote lead for a few hours. In the latest reporting, Perriello is back on top by 81 votes (!). There are still provisional ballots to be counted, and this is sure to go to a recount.
  • WA-08: Only 41% of the district is reporting, making it difficult to know what is going on between Rep. Dave Reichert and Democratic challenger Darcy Burner. Reichert has a 1,500 lead now, but this has a long way to go.

All gubernatorial races have been called - yes, even the Greoire-Rossi match-up! Neither Prop 8 nor Prop 4 have officially been called by the AP or by CNN as millions of absentee votes might still remain, but there is no question that the road looks tough for gay rights advocates.

At the presidential level, Missouri has been called for McCain by some outlets but not others, while Obama maintains a narrow lead in North Carolina which has also not been called. Also up in the air is NE-02’s electoral votes, as we await further counting.

Down-ballot polling: Hagan closes strong, Georgia heading to runoff, GOP set to pick up PA-11

Published
by
Taniel
on November 3, 2008
in AK-AL, AK-Sen, GA-Sen, IN-09, IN-Gov, MN-03, MN-06, MN-Sen, MO-Gov, NC-Gov, NC-Sen, NH-01, NH-02, NH-Sen, PA-11, VA-05, VA-Sen and WA-Gov
. 0 Comments

The gigantic amount of presidential polling that has been released today leads me to do something I haven’t done for a while: devote a separate post to congressional polling. There is a large number of competitive Senate and House races, and they have tended to be overshadowed by the presidential race, so we might as well give them more room tonight.

At the Senate level, most of the attention tomorrow should be devoted to those races that look the most unpredictable, starting with Minnesota where there is no consensus as to which candidate has the lead. Al Franken and Norm Coleman have come out ahead in a number of surveys over the past few days, and the main disagreement between different outlets appears to be over the Barkley factor. Some surveys find Barkley drawing disproportionately from Democrats (for instance today’s SUSA poll), while others find him playing less of a spoiler effect, in which case Franken does much better.

In Georgia, meanwhile, three new polls suggest that the Senate race is likely to head into a runoff. Chambliss comes narrowly ahead in all three but there are very few undecided left for him to get over 50%. Furthermore, we know that at least SUSA predicts African-Americans to make up the same share of the electorate as they did four years ago (26%, up from 25%); given that African-Americans make up 35% of early voters (which are likely to be more than half of all voters), it would mean that tomorrow’s voters are overwhelmingly white for the racial breakdown to be at the 2004 level.

In the two races that are rated lean take-over in my latest ratings, Kay Hagan and Mark Begich confirm that they have the lead; Hagan especially appears to have pulled ahead even more in the final days, possibly because of the controversy over Dole’s Godless ad.

At the House level, both parties get good news: Democrats are looking good in AK-AL and their incumbents in NH-01 and IN-09 are heading into Election Day in a better position than most would have predicted a few months ago. Furthermore, VA-05, a district that has only recently been added to the list of competitive districts, looks ripe for a pick-up.

On the other hand, the GOP is poised to pick up PA-11, as Rep. Kanjorski is finishing in as week a position as he started. And SUSA’s dual polls from Minnesota bring good news to Republicans, as Erik Paulsen is not only alive but slightly ahead in MN-03 while Rep. Bachmann has stopped the bleeding.

  • Minnesota, Senate race: Coleman leads 44% to 39% in a SUSA poll, with 15% going to Barkley; Coleman led by 2% two weeks ago. Barkley draws 15% of Democrats and only 8% of Republicans.
  • North Carolina, Senate: Kay Hagan leads 51% to 44% in a PPP poll, expanding her lead and coming ahead by 15% among those who have already voted. Hagan leads 50% to 43% in a SUSA poll; she led by 1% two weeks ago.
  • Georgia, Senate: Saxby Chambliss leads 48% to 46% with 4% for Buckley in a PPP poll. Chambliss leads 48% to 44% in a SUSA poll, with 5% for Buckley; SUSA predicts blacks will make up 26% of the electorate; the two candidates are tied if we recalculate it with blacks making up 31% of the electorate (they made up 35% of early voters). Chambliss also leads 48% to 44% in a Strategic Vision poll.
  • New Hampshire, Senate: Jeanne Shaheen leads 48% to 42% in UNH’s final poll conducted Friday through Sunday.
  • North Carolina, Governor: Bev Perdue leads 49% to 48% in a PPP poll.
  • Washington, Governor: Christine Gregoire leads 50% to 48% in a University of Washington poll and in Strategic Vision.
  • Safe(r) seats: Mark Warner leads 62% to 36% in a PPP poll of Virginia’s Senate race. Jay Nixon leads 54% to 39% in a SUSA poll of Missouri’s gubernatorial race. Mitch Daniels leads 60% to 37% in a PPP poll of Indiana’s gubernatorial race.
  • In MN-06, Michelle Bachmann leads 46% to 45% in SUSA, a margin that is well within the MoE; it’s a slight improvement for Bachmann over Tinklenberg’s 47% to 44% lead 10 days ago.
  • In MN-03, GOP candidate Erik Paulsen leads 46% to 41% in SUSA after seizing a 1% lead a few days ago and trailing by 3% last month.
  • In PA-11, Republican challenger Lou Barletta leads 51% to 45% against Rep. Kanjorski in a new SUSA poll.
  • In VA-05, GOP Rep. Goode only leads 50% to 47% in the latest SUSA poll; he led by 13% a month ago and by 34% in August.
  • In NH-01, Rep. Shea-Porter leads 46% to 41% in UNH’s final poll conducted Friday through Sunday. Rep. Hodes leads 52% to 31% in NH-02.

I imagine a few more congressional polls might be released by mid-day tomorrow, but that will probably not change the fact that we have not seen any independent polling from a huge number of House races that are currently listed as vulnerable on my House ratings. And in some districts in which polling was released, we might not have gotten numbers in more than a month or two (say AL-02 or CO-04, for instance). This means that the results in a number of House races will be largely unpredictable and we should expect some big surprises - just as in 2006.

Senate rating changes: With Democrats certain to expand majority, 7 races to watch

Published
by
Taniel
on November 2, 2008
in AK-Sen, GA-Sen, LA-Sen, MS-Sen, NH-Sen and OR-Sen
. 3 Comments

There are no more doubts that Democrats will have a significantly expanded majority in the 111th Congress. A grand total of five GOP-held seats are now rated likely or safe Democratic: Virginia, New Mexico, Colorado, New Hampshire and Oregon. (As I explain below, Jeff Merkley’s now being clearly favored is not due to the size of his lead as much as to the fact that Oregon’s Election Day has by and large already passed.)

While an upset is certainly possible in some of the races listed above, most of Tuesday’s Senate action will take place in 7 states: Alaska, North Carolina, Minnesota, Georgia, Kentucky, Mississippi and Louisiana. Some of them are currently leaning for one party or another, but all remain highly competitive.

The Senate races that look the tightest heading into Election Day tend to overwhelmingly break towards one party, and this year it is these seven seats that are likely to heavily break one way or another. To get to 60 seats, Democrats need to win five of them - and at least two (Mississippi and Kentucky) appear to be trending away from them in these final days of campaigning. And that Georgia’s race could head to a runoff is of course the biggest Senate wild card, potentially prolonging the fight all the way until December 2nd.

Democrats should also not ignore Louisiana, a state about which little is said though the two parties genuinely disagree about the state of play. There has been very little non-partisan polling of the race, and the bottom line is that this is the first truly competitive statewide election occurring after Katrina displaced New Orleans residents. No one really knows how to poll the state, and though Senator Mary Landrieu is favored going into Tuesday’s vote, an upset cannot be ruled out.

A reminder about the meaning of these ratings: A race that is classified as “leaning” remains highly competitive and the opposite result would not be surprising; the rating is merely meant to indicate that one candidate has gained an edge. A race is classified as “likely,” meanwhile, when the opposite result is still conceivable but would be considered a huge upset. Finally, a race is classified as “safe” when an upset would shock the very core of American politics.

Alaska, toss-up to lean Democratic: It has only been six days since Ted Stevens’s conviction, but the Alaska Senate race has been radically transformed. The incumbent Senator had fallen in a hole after his late July indictment but had managed to battle his way into a dead heat. His electoral fate looked to be entirely dependent on the outcome of his high-profile trial, and Stevens would probably have won re-election had he been acquitted; but it took a reconfigured jury only a few hours to find him guilty on all seven counts on Monday. Since then, bad news has accumulated for Stevens: Rasmussen and Research 2000 found him trailing by 8% and 22% respectively, and countless Republicans called for Stevens’s resignation - including Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and Alaska Governor Sarah Palin. Their repudiation helps the Democratic argument that Stevens is too discredited to even be able to bring back earmarks to the state.

In any other state and against any other incumbent, a late October conviction and such pile-up by members of one’s own party would be enough to swing the race to the safe takeover category. But this is Ted Stevens, perhaps the politician that has the most towering dominance on his state’s politics anywhere in the country. The now-convicted felon is trying to rally Alaskans around him by arguing that the trial’s verdict was the work of outside forces trying to influence Alaska. While Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich is now clearly favored, Stevens’s political obituary should not be written before Tuesday night.

Georgia, lean Republican to toss-up: With Libertarian Allen Buckley is holding in the mid single-digits, the most plausible scenario in this unexpectedly competitive Senate race is that no candidate crosses 50%, sending incumbent Senator Saxby Chambliss and former state Senator Jim Martin in a high-stakes high-profile runoff. Very few October polls have found any breathing room between the two candidates, with Martin doing significantly better among registered voters - a model that Georgia’s early voting data suggests could be closer to Tuesday’s vote. And with this stunning boost in African-American turnout, an outright Martin victory on Tuesday is perhaps more plausible than Chambliss’s crossing 50%.

Both parties have poured in millions in the final stretch, but all of that will pale in comparison to the resources that will be invested if the race goes in the runoff. It is doubtful that Barack Obama, if he becomes President Elect, would want to be associated with the race too closely as a defeat would then risk undermining his mandate before he even starts governing, but there is no question that the state will be swamped by both parties’ top surrogates. It’s an open question as to who would be most favored by a runoff. On the one hand, Republicans would have an easy time arguing that Democrats should not be given full powers if Obama is elected and if his party makes Senate gains elsewhere; on the other hand, special elections tend to favor whichever party is more enthusiastic - and in 2008 that would be Democrats.

Mississippi, toss-up to lean Republican: Senator Roger Wicker has been slowly improving his re-election prospects ever since he was appointed Senator 11 months ago, confirming the Democrats’ contention that Gov. Barbour’s ploy to delay this special election from March to November was meant to help Wicker. The NRSC has put few Democratic candidates on the defensive as much as Musgrove: They have hammered him on his gubernatorial record, accused him of costing the state jobs and of being involved in shady transactions, taken veiled shots at his family life and at his efforts to change the state flag to no longer reflect any Confederate heritage, and described him as an “out of touch” liberal who supports Hillary-esque policies and the homosexual agenda.

In one of the GOP’s most ingenious tricks, they have sought to weaken Musgrove’s hold on the black vote. On the one hand, they are charging that Musgrove supports Barack Obama to lower his support among white voters; and they are exploiting the fact that Musgrove cannot appear to close to Obama or to African-American voters to run ads on black radio accusing Musgrove of neglecting African-Americans. The two latest polls (conducted by Rasmussen and Research 2000) showed Wicker pulling ahead to a high single-digit lead, suggesting that the Republican offensive has been working.

All of this said, victory remains in sight for Ronnie Musgrove, and the race is only moving to the “lean” category. The former Governor has been elected statewide before, and he enjoys strong name ID. The DSCC has heavily invested in the race and has sought to drive up the importance of economic issues by waging a populist campaign - for instance accusing Wicker of voting to increase his pay raise. Most importantly, black turnout is a big unknown here: If African-Americans vote at a higher pace (as they have been in the early voting of other Southern states) and boost their share of the electorate, all bets are off.

Oregon, lean Democratic to likely Democratic: This race’s new rating is somewhat deceiving: It is not meant to describe the size or the ease of a Merkley’s victory (in fact, I only moved the race out of the toss-up column eight days ago) as much as the fact that it looks like Merkley has already won the race. As the entire voting in Oregon is conducted via mail, which means that the vast majority of voters have already sent in their ballot. Election Day has already passed in the state, and a number of polls released over the past few days show that Gordon Smith has remained stuck in the low 40s, trailing widely among those respondents who said they had already voted. Merkley’s margin will not be large enough for a Smith victory to be ruled out, but the incumbent Senator would have to perform very well among the last batch of mailed ballot to keep his seat.

New Hampshire, lean Democratic to likely Democratic: For a few weeks in September, It looked like Sununu might be climbing back as he regained his footing among independents, aired hard-hitting ads attacking Shaheen’s gubernatorial record and portrayed himself as an energetic maverick; but the economic crisis and the GOP’s collapse in late September halted any momentum Sununu might have been enjoying.

Besides that short period of shifting momentum, this race has been remarkably stable for more than a year. Former Governor Jeanne Shaheen was already dominating incumbent Senator John Sununu before she announced her candidacy. In fact, she has only trailed in only two polls - an ARG poll from December 2007 and a Rasmussen poll from September 2008; both surveys had Sununu up big, and both seemed like complete outliers. (ARG and Rasmussen’s next surveys corrected themselves and showed Shaheen regaining a commanding advantage.) While Shaheen’s edge isn’t big enough for a Sununu comeback to be ruled out, it is hard to conceive of an incumbent prevailing after being consistently stuck in the low 40s and a GOP hold would have to be considered as one of the biggest upsets in modern politics.

This leads to the following rankings of all 12 states that could switch over on Tuesday:

  • Safe take-over: 1. Virginia
  • Likely take-over: 2. New Mexico, 3. Colorado, 4. New Hampshire, 5. Oregon
  • Lean take-over: 6. Alaska, 7. North Carolina
  • Toss-up: 8. Minnesota, 9. Georgia
  • Lean retention: 10. Kentucky, 11. Mississippi, 12. Louisiana

Full rankings available here.

Congress: Hillary’s impact, Dole’s second godless ad, Stevens’ plea and the NRCC’s hit on Murtha

Published
by
Taniel
on October 31, 2008
in AK-Sen, FL-18, KY-Sen, MS-Sen, NC-Sen, NJ-05 and PA-12
. 2 Comments

One of the most puzzling developments of the past few days has been Hillary Clinton’s transformation from a boogeywoman Republican use to scare conservative voters away from Democratic candidates into a working class heroin praised by the GOP’s presidential ticket!

Hillary’s new ambiguous position on the American political scene was confirmed by two new ads airing in red states. In Mississippi, Roger Wicker is using her as a stand-in for Washington Democrats in a spot that urges voters not to “send a failed ex-Governor to support Hillary’s liberal agenda:”

Meanwhile, in conservative Kentucky, Bruce Lunsford is touting Clinton’s support. Not only will the New York Senator visit the state a second time Sunday to boost Lunsford, but footage of her first visit a few weeks ago is now being highlighted in a new Lunsford ad:

That’s right, a Democratic Senate candidate in Kentucky is doing his best to tie his fate to Hillary Clinton’s popularity. Who could have predicted that a few months ago? Given that Mississippi and Kentucky are both red states that McCain is likely to win by wide margins, the discrepancy between Wicker and Lunsford’s ads is somewhat curious - though perhaps not dramatically so.

Democrats enjoy a large registration advantage in Kentucky, but conservative-minded blue-collar Democrats have become reliable Republican voters. It is precisely that constituency that Clinton championed in the latter half of the primary, and Kentucky’s Democratic voters rewarded her with a resounding 35% victory in the late May contest. Today, Lunsford is looking to mobilize the Democratic base by proving to Kentucky’s Democratic voters that he belongs to the Clinton wing of the party rather than to the Obama wing - whatever those distinctions came to mean in the last few months of the Obama-Clinton showdown.

—

In North Carolina, the entire Senate campaign has come to a scratching halt and has been replaced by the controversy over Elizabeth Dole’s “Godless” ad. Kay Hagan filed a defamation lawsuit, but that is not preventing Dole from firing another shot. This is not about “Hagan’s faith,” the new ad says, but about the “fact” that she attended a party thrown by Godless Americans. The concludes by asking, “If Godless Americans threw a party in your honor, would you go?”

Elizabeth Dole is putting all her re-election hopes on this one attack against Hagan - not that she has a choice. After Kay Hagan’s forceful response, Dole would be admitting that her initial ad was a disgrace if she backed down, so she is accepting the showdown. At the very least this new ad no longer juxtaposes Hagan’s image with a woman’s voice announcing that there is no God.

It is nearly impossible to predict what impact such attacks have, so we will have to wait until Tuesday night to see whether it allowed Dole to discredit Hagan and mount a comeback or whether it backfired. One factor to take into account, of course, is the jaw-dropping early voting turnout rate (already 60% of the total 2004 vote), which means it is probable than more than half of voters already cast their ballot as this controversy is heating up.

—

In Alaska, Ted Stevens is trying to convince voters to re-elect him despite his guilty verdict. In a new ad in which he talks directly to the camera, Stevens insists he is innocent and seeks to cast the trial and its conclusion as non-Alaskans trying to intrude in Alaska affairs:

As we discovered over the past few months, there is a powerful anti-lower 48 current in Alaska (even Todd Palin was a member of the Alaska Independence Party, after all), and Stevens is trying to channel that anger to get voters to not only forgive him for his conviction but to also rally around him. If anyone can pull this off, it’s probably Stevens, who is as towering a figure in his home state as any politician in the country, making it easier for him to appeal to voters’ Alaskan pride.

—

In House races, both parties are making last-minute expenditures - and the NRCC is by far making the biggest splash. It has bought $465,000 worth of air time against Democratic congressman Jack “Western Pennsylvanians are racist” Murtha. That’s a very substantial sum of money to spread over just 4 days, especially when it comes to the NRCC. The Republican committee has budgetary difficulties and it has pulled the plug on an number of highly endangered incumbents (Musgrave in CO-04, Bachmann in MN-06, Knollenberg in MI-09, …).

For the NRCC invest this much money in this seat at the last minute means that they are very confident that Murtha’s comments have made him highly vulnerable. If Murtha loses Tuesday night (which is very possible), it will mark a stunning upset that just two weeks ago was unthinkable; if Murtha wins by a comfortable margin, this is one $465,000 that Republicans who’ll go down in tight races will be particularly bitter about.

Meanwhile, the DCCC is spending modest expenditures in at least two GOP-held seats in which they had yet to invest: FL-18 and NJ-05. Both districts are rated likely Republican in my recent House ratings, and polls in both have suggested that the once-comfortable GOP incumbents risk being upset on Tuesday. The DCCC’s last-minute push could help make the most of this - but it is certainly getting late.

In Senate races, it’s the season of bizarre ad wars

Published
by
Taniel
on October 29, 2008
in AK-Sen, KY-Sen, NC-Sen and OR-Sen
. 4 Comments

We will need to be removed from the excitement of daily ad releases to get a sense of which 2008 ads will be remembered as the most vicious, but Elizabeth Dole’s spots will certainly be in contention. A few months after portraying Kay Hagan as a yapping dog, Dole is now airing an ad accusing her opponent of… atheism:

[youtube="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6JkxTv4SQww"]

In September, Hagan attended a fundraiser in Boston sponsored by 30 people and organized by fundraising powerhouse ActBlue; the event was held at the home of one of the founders of Godless Americans PAC, a group that works to remove religious references from the public sphere. Dole’s ad features footage of members of that group appearing on various shows to defend their position before connecting all of them to Hagan.

In what is surely the ad’s most twisted moment, an image of Kay Hagan appears at the end of the spot while a woman’s voice says “there is no God.” The juxtaposition is meant to suggest that the voice is Hagan’s, when it is not hers. (Demonstrating further that Dole is channeling Jesse Helms, whose seat she occupies, this ad comes just a few days after Dole sent out a gay baiting mailer to North Carolina households.)

Needless to say, it is difficult to win as an atheist anywhere in America - even more so in a state like North Carolina that remains conservative - so the attack could hurt Hagan if it takes hold. That said, such brutal ads are even more likely to backfire by making a candidate seem excessively nasty and desperate, especially if the media jumps in to point out that the ad’s problems.

An attack is is unlikely to work unless it latches on an impression voters already have of a candidate and reinforces their doubts. In this case, there seems to be very little in Hagan’s background that can confirm the ad’s “accusations,” as Hagan appears to be a regular attendee at her Presbyterian Church and as her pastor has already cut a radio ad on her behalf.

In Kentucky, meanwhile, Bruce Lunsford is running an ad in which a Mitch McConnell impersonator is chased around by two threatening dogs who are first made to sniff a book entitled “McConnell’s record:”

[youtube="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rC8QSGvRDLE"]

As bizarre as this ad is, Politico points out that it is a quasi-exact remake of an ad that McConnell ran against the Democratic incumbent he was facing in 1984. That might make it difficult for the GOP to accuse Lunsford of anything else than copying them, but threatening to let the dogs out on your opponent doesn’t strike me as the most gracious campaigning tactic.

In Oregon, finally, Gordon Smith’s new ad underscores just how precarious his position is. Smith devotes the last third of his ad to attacking Constitution Party candidate Dave Brownlow as being “too liberal:”

[youtube="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gM_PNMhbtGo"]

Why would Smith waste his time on a candidate who is polling in the mid-single digits (5% in the latest SUSA survey)? Oregon Republicans have been grumbling for months that Smith went too far to the center by airing ads touting his relationship with Ted Kennedy, Barack Obama and John Kerry - perhaps leading a number of disgruntled conservatives to desert him in favor of the candidate of the (right-wing) Constitution Party. That Smith is now feeling like he has to blast Brownlow illustrates how Smith has put himself in an uncomfortable situation and is now looking increasingly desperate.

Smith’s ads comes in the heels of a new NRSC ad that urges Oregon voters to not give Democrats an undivided government in Washington, making it the second spot the NRSC has run that assumes an Obama presidency. (The first ran in North Carolina.) Don’t forget that Smith that Oregon’s Election Day is not next Tuesday, as all the vote is conducted via mail and ballots need to be returned by that November 4th; in other words, all voters have already voted or are voting right now - making these ads the last salvos in the Oregon Senate race.

Beyond these latest ads, the Senate battle continues in Alaska, and those who thought Stevens would go away quietly will be disappointed. Stevens, now a convicted but not-yet-sentenced felon, returned in his home state today to campaign in the home stretch to Tuesday’s vote and the Anchorage Daily News reports that his campaign is by no means admitting defeat. Their hope is that the conviction will trigger a backlash against “outside influence.”

Senate: Ad wars intensify as GOP brings in child abuse, Dems exploit Stevens verdict

Published
by
Taniel
on October 28, 2008
in AK-Sen, MN-Sen, NC-Sen, NH-Sen and OR-Sen
. 0 Comments

The news that the DNC will tap into a $10 million line of credit to be split equally on House and Senate races means that the DSCC and DCCC has $5 million more than what they had budgeted for the campaign’s final week, allowing them to put even more House races in play and increase their spending against Sens. McConnell and Chambliss.

That makes for that much more excitement in the campaign’s closing week - and given how much more vicious ads have become in recent days, we should expect quite a few fireworks. It is no surprise, of course, that the nastiest of recent attack ads comes from the NRSC’s efforts to discredit Al Franken in Minnesota. This latest spot is a compilation of all of the GOP’s attacks on Franken, strung together in an incredibly hard-hitting sequence. Franken “lashes out at those who disagree,” “humiliates minorities”, “demeans women,” “makes child abuse a joke” and “laughs at the disabled:

The problem for Republicans is that the ad wars in the Minnesota Senate race might very well have exhausted their effectiveness. There are, after all, diminishing returns in political advertisement, and the GOP has been airing the same attacks since the spring. Furthermore, the fact that the Minnesota contest is is a three-way race with Independent Party candidate Barkley means that Coleman and Franken have to win on the strength of their base, making any attack less effective. Finally, the negative tone of campaigning has taken a toll on both of the major party candidates and allowed Barkley to progress; that means that the NRSC’s ads are as likely to get Franken voters to peel away to Barkley as they are to get Coleman voters to vote for a third party in disgust.

Note that the NRSC appears to have launched a broad child abuse offensive against Franken… confirming that Minnesota’s Senate race will go down as the most vicious of this year’s contests. Their latest mailer to Minnesota households features a cartoonish Franken telling children to “come on in…” The mailer has ignited a firestorm in the final week of campaigning, as the state’s Democratic Party has vehemently denounced the mailer and Senator Coleman has had to condemn the tactics used by his national party.

But child molestation-themed attacks apparently extend beyond Minnesota! They are also the focus of a new NRSC ad aimed at Jim Martin in Georgia. The spot starts with footage of a young woman in a bathing suit and proceeds to accuse Martin of not supporting making soliciting children for prostitution a felony. “Liberal extreme,” charges the ad, before listing other allegedly radical position Martin holds - like his refusal to make English the official language:

Given how late the NRSC is starting to air its anti-Martin ads, there isn’t that much time left to discredit him (except if the election goes to a December runoff, of course), which is why the GOP is unloading what looks like its entire oppo file in one ad. I also doubt how much ads featuring footage of seductive women ever move the electorate, as going for racy just makes an ad look ridiculously over the top; witness these stunningly hilarious robocalls in a California House race or the infamous Arcuri ad from 2006.

In New Hampshire, meanwhile, Jeanne Shaheen has released a powerful new ad. Not only is it focused on the economy (though this race has been hardly contested, neither side has gone personal), but it uses Sen. Sununu’s words against him - always the most effective tactic to use in political ads. After an average voters tells the story of his struggles paying for health care, the ad features audio recording of Sununu saying “stop complaining about health care costs” - repeatedly:

This ad is a reminder of how much the financial crisis hurt Republicans. Not only did it close the door on candidates like Sununu who were closing the gap in the first half of September, but it made the issues Democrats would rather talk about (like health care and Social Security) suddenly relevant. An ad like this one would be effective in any environment, but it becomes even more powerful when voters are worried about their subsistence.

—

As expected, Democrats are making the most of Ted Stevens’ endorsement by putting other endangered GOP Senators on the defensive over their ties to the convicted Alaskan. Republicans are doing their best to distance themselves from Stevens (McCain called for him to step down this morning, Palin followed his lead after not quite daring to do so yesterday, and McConnell called it a “sad but serious day” and pledged that Stevens will “be held accountable”), but that is not enough for Democrats who want to press their advantage.

Democrats are calling on Norm Coleman, Gordon Smith and Elizabeth Dole to return campaign donations they received from Stevens over the years. This would not represent that significant an amount of money, of course, but the Democrats’ goal is not to deprive their opponent of a few thousand dollars but to push coverage of the Stevens conviction in the local press and tie the incumbents they are facing to the convicted Senator. Stevens was, after all, the longest serving Republican in the Senate, with ties to many of his colleagues.

In a year in which the GOP brand is at an all-time low, Stevens’ conviction further tarnishes the party’s image and could thus damage those incumbents - especially Coleman and Smith - who are in danger mostly because of the political environment.

As for the Alaska Senate race, it now clearly leans Democratic though Stevens is such a towering figure in state politics that an upset cannot be entirely be ruled out. Ivan Moore, an Alaska-based pollster whose surveys we have been looking at carefully for the past few months, is now saying that the race is over - but he awknowledges that he (mistakenly) thought the same after Stevens was indicted. If Stevens somehow wins, it would only be the beginning of his troubles: Would the Senate expell him? Would the Republican leadership dare abandon a Senator that has been part of their caucus for decades?

Stevens convicted on all seven counts

Published
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Taniel
on October 27, 2008
in AK-AL and AK-Sen
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It was the biggest outstanding question left in the 2008 cycle, and it has just been resolved: Senator Ted Stevens has just been convicted on seven counts of lying about gifts worth more than $250,000 on financial disclosure forms.

This is first and foremost a major blow for Stevens, and a stunning fall for the towering figure of Alaska politics. The Alaska Senator now faces up to five years in prison, and his legal troubles are only the beginning. Two weeks ago, I noted that prosecutorial mishandling and disregard for defense rights should make us at least somewhat uncomfortable with a guilty verdict, but that has little to do with the verdict’s huge political fallout: Stevens is up for re-election in 8 days, and it’s difficult to see how he can survive this.

Stevens fell in a deep hole in the polls in the immediate aftermath of his July indictment, but he had battled his way back to a dead heat in most recent surveys. The news of his sweeping conviction (on all counts) will now dominate Alaska’s news coverage over the next eight days, and Stevens will come under pressure to resign.

Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich has just become the clear favorite to pick-up the seat, and Democrats are one seat closer to their dream of a 60 seat super-majority. And even if Stevens somehow prevails next Tuesday, he would face expulsion, though he could perhaps delay that procedure until an appeal is heard.

Alaska thus joins Virginia, New Mexico, Colorado and New Hampshire as GOP-held seats in which a Democratic victory is likely - bringing the total to 5 seats.

But the damage could reverberate beyond the Alaska Senate race. Stevens is no ordinary politician, he is the longest serving Republican in the U.S. Senate and he represents the home state of the GOP’s vice-presidential nominee. At the very least, this will cost McCain one of the last news cycle he has available to change the narrative and tighten the race. Today was going to mark a Republican offensive on Obama’s “redistributive” goals, but the verdict will be the day’s dominant political story, obscuring the presidential race - and that is great news for Obama.

At worst for the GOP, the verdict could lead the media to talk about other stories of alleged political corruption like those facing Don Young and even Palin with troopergate. It could also mean trouble for Republicans who have received contributions from Stevens. Al Franken already tried to make this into an issue against Sen. Norm Coleman. And any hope Alaska’s Rep. Don Young had to survive have probably just been crushed, as Young’s own ethical problems will be tied in to Stevens’s fate and lead Alaska voters to reject the state’s Republican establishment. Could this also endanger McCain-Palin’s hold on Alaska’s 3 electoral votes?

Senate: Delay in Stevens trial, Merkley gets high-profile help

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Taniel
on October 24, 2008
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Alaska: The Ted Stevens trial is getting more complicated by the day - and we should no longer rule out the possibility that the jury deliberations will not be completed by the election, making the Alaska Senate race as unpredictable as any in the country.

Yesterday, the jury hit a roadblock because of a juror who allegedly engaged in “violent” and “unreasonable” behavior. Hours after the Judge Sullivan decided not to expel that juror, another juror sent word that she had to leave Washington, DC to attend her father’s funeral in California, thereby shutting down the jury deliberations for the day. Sullivan and lawyers representing the defense and the prosecution will meet on Sunday night to decide how to proceed.

If the juror returns, the jury’s deliberations are unlikely to resume until Tuesday at the earliest; if she is replaced by one of the alternates, the jury would have to start its discussions from the beginning. In both cases, we are getting awfully close to November 4th. Remember that Ted Stevens asked for a speedy trial precisely because he wanted a verdict by Election Day.

Oregon: For months, Republican Sen. Gordon Smith has been airing ads touting his relationship with Democrats like Barack, Obama Ted Kennedy, John Kerry and (Oregon Senator) Ron Hayden. The problem, of course, is that any of these Democrats can easily undermine Smith’s entire argument by taking a strong stance in favor of Merkley - and that is exactly what Obama did today by shooting his very first ad for a down-the-ballot candidate:

[youtube="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k-UkAR81gmk"]

Obama’s decision to choose this race to intervene in can probably be attributed to Smith himself invoking him, as well as to Obama’s popularity in Oregon. He demolished Clinton in the state’s primary and has surged to unexpectedly dominant leads against McCain. Furthermore, Oregon’s election is taking place right now (Oregon vote entirely via mail, and ballots have to be returned by November 4th), so Obama’s ad is essentially Merkley’s closing positive argument. A new DSCC ad, meanwhile, is the Democrats’ closing negative argument, and it’s back to the basics as Gordon Smith is linked to George Bush in simple and broad terms.

Hard-hitting ads in North Carolina and Mississippi: Oregon isn’t the only state in which the parties are now unleashing their harshest and most clearly expressed attack lines now that we have entered the final stretch. In North Carolina, a new DSCC spot recycles common charges state voters have been hearing for the past few months (Dole is ranked 93rd in effectiveness, she has voted with Bush 92% of the time) and adds a deadly punch line by invoking the recent report that revealed that Dole had spent less than 35 days over the entirety of 2005 and 2006 in the state she is supposed to represent. The ad calls Dole an ineffective, “absentee Senator:”

[youtube="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=isoafmiRb-Y"]

In Mississippi, one of the GOP’s main tactics has been to run against Ronnie Musgrove’s gubernatorial record. Musgrove lost his re-election bid in 2003, testifying to the fact that many voters were dissatisfied with him. A new NRSC ad targeted at the coasts hits Musgrove for having ruined the state’s economy as a governor and having “killed jobs” in the Golf Coast, raising unemployment in the region by 42%:

[youtube="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t4TCOY1EA50"]

Outside spending: The DSCC and NRSC are facing some tough financial decisions, but outside groups are coming to their rescue. On the right, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce has been particularly active on behalf of a number of Republican Senate candidates, airing ads lambasting the Democratic agenda - particularly on the issue of union card checks. The group has spent about $3.3 million on behalf of Sen. Sununu in New Hampshire and more than $1 million to help Sens. Dole, Smith, McConnell, Wicker as well as Bob Schaffer. Also budgeted is a $1 million campaign on behalf of Sen. Coleman in Minnesota. The Chamber of Commerce’s total budget for the 2008 cycle is $35 million.

Meanwhile, labor is playing its traditional role in boosting Democratic candidates - starting with SEIU. Not only has the union spent nearly $5 million to organize canvassing since the convention, they are also heavily investing in Senate races. Two new ads have just gone up against Sens. Smith and Sununu, for instance, both devoted to the economy. Against Smith, SEIU is running a $400,000 ad entitled “Hole; against Sununu this $600,000 spot entitled “Register” that links Sununu to Bush and Wall Street.

Congress: The violent Stevens juror, Boulder liberals, and connecting rabbis to terrorists

Published
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Taniel
on October 23, 2008
in AK-Sen, CO-Sen, KY-Sen, NC-08 and NJ-05
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In yet another twist in the Ted Stevens trial, the jury sent the judge a note… asking for the removal of one of its members. The note, written by the foreman, explained that, “she is being rude, disrespectful and unreasonable. She has had violent outbursts with other jurors and that’s not helping anyone. The jurors are getting off-course. She’s not following the laws and rules that are being stipulated to in the main instructions.” Judge Sullivan convoked the jury and asked to be courteous towards one another, so no juror has been removed for now, and the jury is back to deliberating over Stevens’ legal - and electoral - fate.

If this juror’s hostility is based on disagreement over the facts of the case, it could mean that the jury is having trouble reaching a decision - a good sign for the defense. If it is due to the juror’s natural propensity to be “rude, disrespectful and unreasonable,” well, it might not mean anything at all. For now, the consequence of all of this is to delay a verdict and with it any sense of resolution in what is the biggest outstanding question that will be answered before Election Day. (That said, it is highly unlikely that the jury is unable to reach a decision by November 3th, so it’s unlikely that voters will go to the polls before knowing the verdict.)

Meanwhile, the volume of ads in some of the most heated congressional races is being dialed up. In Colorado, Republicans are getting desperate in their attempts to destabilize Mark Udall, who has led in ever single poll taken this year. While third party groups have poured millions in the race and the GOP has invested a lot of efforts in painting Udall as too far to the left, numbers have barely moved for months now, so the NRSC’s latest ad literally goes all-out on the font size department, proclaiming to all viewers that Udall is a “Boulder liberal” who marches in lockstep with his party:

[youtube="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I-bgF-aiDTM"]

You decide whether such an ad has a chance of being effective. It doesn’t introduce a new argument, simply recycles attacks that have been running (unsuccessfuly) for months and illustrates them more directly. In Kentucky, it is Democrats who are upping their attacks, though they are doing so on a topic that has proved effective over the past few weeks. Mitch McConnell’s decline in the polls can be directly related to the economic crisis, and the DSCC’s new ad accuses the incumbent Senator of being responsible for the state’s losing jobs. The spot details the number of jobs particular counties lost to different countries:

[youtube="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PRLaEYxR1vM"]

Mitch McConnell is also being targeted by a 527, Campaign Money Watch. The group is spending $380,000 on an ad accusing the incumbent of using his clout to help pharmaceutical and insurance interests. All of these expenditures are taking place in the midst of heightening tensions between the two campaigns. Republicans are charging that Lunsford stole and erased recordings out of a McConnell digital recorder during a debate, and they are considering filing a lawsuit against the Democratic candidate himself.

The prize for the day’s most outrageous ad goes to GOP Rep. Scott Garrett of NJ-05, who occupies what is still considered as a relatively safe seat. But his opponent, Dennis Shulman, is credible enough that the race merits attention. Shulman is a blind rabbi but that is not preventing Garrett of running a jaw-dropping ad that accuses Shulman of wanting to “negotiate with terrorists” while Shulman’s face is juxtaposed with Ahmadinejad’s:

[youtube="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4a1GsGv5Dlo"]

The DCCC has not spent any money on this district; given how many seats they are spending in, that suggests that Rep. Garrett is not that vulnerable, which makes his decision to go so negative rather surprising. This gives an opening for Shulman to get some media attention, after all. But Republican congressional candidates are not being particularly careful about what they are saying these days, which is surely giving NRCC officials huge headaches.

While it has not reached the level of Bachmann’s anti-Americanism rant, a recent statement by Rep. Hayes of NC-08 (”Liberals hate real Americans that work and accomplish and achieve and believe in God”) has attracted significant attention in the local media and has forced Hayes on the defensive. (NC-08 is rated a toss-up in my most recent ratings.) Hayes made the problem worse when his campaign denied it made the comments, then acknowledged them after an audio recording surfaced, and then Hayes denied that the comments had been denied! Of course, Democrats have their own problem with incumbents shooting themselves in the foot, as Rep. Murtha (PA-12)’s comments about his district’s racism and his later correction that they were rednecks has suddenly put that race on our radar screen.

Poll watch: As LV and RV models split, Obama leads VA, McCain stops bleeding in yet another FL poll

Published
by
Taniel
on October 22, 2008
in AK-AL, AK-Pres, AK-Sen, FL-18, FL-Pres, KY-Pres, KY-Sen, LA-Sen, NC-Gov, NC-Pres, NC-Sen, NV-Pres, OH-Pres, PA-Pres, TN-Pres, VA-Pres, WA-Gov, WA-Pres, WI-Pres and WV-Pres
. 12 Comments

We are starting to see polling taken after the week-end (and thus after the Powell endorsement and McCain’s socialism charge), and there is little sign that McCain is closing the gap. He does gain a bit in two of the tracking polls, but he loses ground in four others, as Zogby, Research 2000 and Washington Post/ABC now all show Obama leading by double-digits. In all 10 of the national polls released today (including the AP survey, about which I will talk in a minute), McCain is stuck in the low 40s, between 40% and 45%.

One possible worry for Obama is that the size of his national lead is due to his gains in states that will not influence the electoral college: We have been seeing Obama open dramatic leads in safe blue states like California and Washington and cut margins significantly in places like Texas and Kentucky. The trends in places like Ohio and Florida are at a much smaller scale (surely because the volume of campaigning and advertisement makes these states less susceptible to follow national trends). So could the size of Obama’s lead in non-battleground states be obscuring a tighter race in the electoral college?

There isn’t much evidence of that in polls from battleground states, where Obama continues to get strong numbers - though he hasn’t put it away the way the way he appears to have secured a popular vote lead. But he dominates in Virginia, where CNN/Time finds him leading by double-digits yet again. Mason-Dixon does find the Old Dominion within the margin of error, but its previous survey had been the only one with McCain ahead since September. Furthermore, Obama leads outside of the margin of error in three out of the five CNN/Time polls (VA, Nevada and Ohio) and is leading within the MoE in two polls of North Carolina.

The good news for McCain comes from Florida: his lead in Mason Dixon is well within the margin of error, but it is the fourth survey in a row to find McCain gaining in the Sunshine State, a significant break from Obama’s fifteen consecutive - many of which were outside of the margin of error.

The second good news for McCain comes from the much-discussed AP poll that has a 1% lead. But three remarks apply here. First, McCain is stuck in the same range as every other poll (the low 40s), and Obama is much lower than his national average. As long as McCain cannot break 45% (or 46% in his best Rasmussen days), he doesn’t have much hope of besting Obama nationally. Second, Marc Ambinder remarks that evangelicals make up about twice as much of the sample as they usually do. Third, this gets us to the important slip between registered voters and likely voters.

Obama leads by 5% among registered voters in AP’s poll, a differential that also exists in Gallup’s tracking (+9% among registered voters, +5% or +8% among likely voters). And it is most dramatic in CNN/Time’s state polls. In all five, Obama performs better among RVs than among LVs (especially in Nevada, where he is ahead by 13% among RVs). What this means is very simple: Obama will benefit from higher turnout, and the size of his lead is partly dependent on how tight a likely voter screen pollsters apply.

There are clear indications that turnout will be larger than usual, particularly among Democrats, meaning that Obama’s lead could range somewhere between the LV screen and the RV results. Early voting numbers are going through the roof among Democrats and African-Americans in North Carolina, Georgia and Nevada; furthermore, Gallup’s tracking poll acknowledges that the traditional LV model might not apply - which is why they have an expanded model which closely mirrors the RV results.

That said, it is impossible to predict how large turnout will be and whether Obama’s organization will fully function. And that’s why we have elections. On to the full roundup of the day’s polls:

  • Obama remains in command of the tracking polls, though they are not moving as uniformly in his direction yesterday. Obama gains 2% in Zogby (up 52% to 42%), 2% in Research 2000 (up 51% to 41%), 2% in Rasmussen (up 51% to 45%) and 2% in Washington Post/ABC (54% to 43%). Hotline finds a stable margin (47% to 42%). McCain gains 2% in Gallup’s expanded likely voter model (52% to 44%, with a 9% lead for Obama among RVs and a 5% lead in the traditional LV model), 2% in IBD/TIPP (46% to 42%). To recap, Obama’s leads are: 4%, 5%, 6%, 8%, 10%, 10%, 11%.
  • Obama leads 49% to 40% in a national Fox News poll conducted Monday and Tuesday. He led by 7% two weeks ago. Who knew a few months ago that Obama would achieve the support of 88% of Democrats (versus 83% of Republicans for McCain)? Interestingly, 66% of Democrats and 47% of independents think that spreading the wealth is a good idea.
  • Obama leads 44% to 43% in a national AP/GfQ poll conducted Thursday through Monday. He led by 7% three weeks ago. Obama leads by 10% among all adults and by 5% among registered voters, however.
  • Obama leads 50% to 42% in a national poll conducted by Ipsos/McClatchy conducted Thursday through Monday.
  • Obama leads 54% to 44% in a CNN/Time poll of Virginia. Among registered voters, Obama leads 54% to 42%. When other candidates are included, he leads 51% to 44%.
  • Obama leads 47% to 45% in a Mason Dixon poll of Virginia. McCain led by 3% two weeks ago.
  • Obama leads 51% to 47% in a CNN/Time poll of Ohio, just within the margin of error. Among registered voters, Obama leads 51% to 45%. When other candidates are included, he leads 49% to 44%, with 2% for Barr (50% to 43% among registered voters).
  • Obama leads 48% to 46% in a WSOC-TV poll of North Carolina.
  • Obama leads 50% to 46% in a CNN/Time poll of North Carolina, just outside of the margin of error. Among registered voters, Obama leads 51% to 46%. When other candidates are included, he leads 51% to 46%, with 2% for Barr.
  • Obama leads 51% to 46% in a CNN/Time poll of Nevada. Among registered voters, Obama leads 54% to 41%. When other candidates are included, he leads 49% to 43%, with 3% for Nader and 2% for Barr.
  • McCain leads 46% to 45% in a Mason Dixon poll of Florida. Obama led by 2% two weeks ago.
  • Obama leads 52% to 41% in a Research 2000 poll of Wisconsin, conducted Monday and Tuesday.
  • Obama leads 51% to 38% in a Wisconsin Public Radio poll of Wisconsin. However, the poll was was conducted form the 9th to the 17th, so it is not at all an indicator of what is going on currently on the ground.
  • Obama leads 55% to 36% in an Elway poll of Washington.
  • McCain leads 53% to 42% in an Ivan Moore poll of Alaska. McCain led by 17% two weeks ago.
  • McCain leads 53% to 44% in a CNN/Time poll of West Virginia, just outside of the margin of error. Among registered voters, Obama leads 51% to 44%.
  • McCain leads 42% to 41% in a one-week old poll of West Virginia conducted by Democratic-firm Rainmaker.
  • McCain leads 54% to 42% in a Rasmussen poll of Tennessee. He led by 19% last month.

Meanwhile, in down-the-ballot polls:

  • Mark Begich is ahead 47% to 46% in an Ivan Moore poll of the Alaska Senate race. Begich led by 4% two weeks ago.
  • Kay Hagan leads 44% to 43% in a WSOC-TV poll of North Carolina’s Senate race.
  • McConnell leads 50% to 43% in a Rasmussen poll of Kentucky’s Senate race. He led by 9% three weeks ago.
  • Mary Landrieu leads 54% to 34% in an internal poll of the Louisiana Senate race.
  • Chris Gregoire leads 51% to 39% in an Elway poll of Washington’s gubernatorial race.
  • Perdue and McCrory are tied at 44% in a WSOC-TV poll of North Carolina’s gubernatorial race.
  • In AK-AL, Ethan Berkowitz leads 51% to 43% against Don Young in an Ivan Moore poll. He led by 9% two weeks ago.
  • In FL-18, Rep. Ros-Lehtinen leads 48% to 41% in an internal poll for Democratic candidate Annette Taddeo.

No big surprises in this batch of congressional polls. If anything, the news is good for the GOP as Sens. Stevens and Dole stay within the margin of error in their respective cases (as we await the verdict of the Stevens trial) and as Mitch McConnell remains ahead outside of the margin of error in Rasmussen’s survey. But the Louisiana numbers are naturally excellent news for Democrats; while Landrieu’s own survey might be overstating her lead, it does confirm the conventional wisdom that the incumbent is ahead.

Congress: NRCC spends money (!), Stevens trial enters final stage

Published
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Taniel
on October 22, 2008
in AK-Sen, AL-02, AL-05, AZ-01, AZ-03, CO-04, FL-21, FL-24, ID-01, IL-10, IN-03, KY-02, LA-06, MD-01, MI-07, MN-03, MO-06, MO-09, NC-08, NE-02, NH-01, NJ-03, NJ-07, NM-01, NV-03, NY-26, NY-29, OH-01, OH-02, OH-15, OH-16, PA-03, PA-11, VA-02, WA-08 and WI-08
. 0 Comments

Spending: After weeks of holding back on TV advertisements because of its meager budget, the NRCC finally unloaded over the past two days, buying more than $4 million worth of ads in a total of 20 districts. And some of these buys are quite large - perhaps unexpectedly so.

Over the past two days, the NRCC spent more than $400,000 in two red district (MN-03 and WA-08), $300,000 or more in CO-04, MI-07, NH-01 and PA-11, more than $200,000 in MO-09, NY-26, NY-29, OH-02 and OH-15, more than $100,000 in LA-06, MO-06, NJ-03, NJ-07, OH-01, PA-03 and WI-08 and less than $100,000 in AL-02 and AL-05. (Alabama media markets are inexpensive, so the NRCC’s spending those two districts is substantial.)

To this list should also be added districts in which the NRCC bought ad time at the end of last week, so that they will not have to invest more money to stay on air for a few more days. Those include: FL-21, ID-01, VA-02. Furthermore, Politico reports that the NRCC has just made expenditures it has not yet reported (and will likely do so by tonight) in three more districts, KY-02, IN-03 and NE-02 - three very conservative districts, the latter two of which were not expected to be competitive as of a month ago.

This spending offers a fascinating window into the GOP’s view of which blue seats are competitive and which red states are salvageable or deserve defending. Some omissions of vulnerable red seats continue to be glaring, particularly FL-24, NM-01, NC-08, NV-03, OH-16. That the NRCC is spending so much money helping Rep. Walberg in MI-07 while investing nothing in Rep. Knollenberg’s MI-09 is telling of the latter’s vulnerabilities. However, there are some surprises in the list.

The first is MN-03, the heated open seat in which the GOP has just poured in a huge amount of money: a week ago, the NRCC was reported to be moving out of the district and allocating that budget to MN-06 (Bachmann’s seat) instead. Clearly, the NRCC has since then decided that the district is still winnable. Similarly, Reps. Musgrave and Kuhl in CO-04 and NY-29 look to be trailing, so it is curious that the NRCC has decided to invest some of its limited expenditures into saving them. The calculation is surely that it is always easier to pull incumbents through rather than salvage open seats or help challengers.

Meanwhile, the DCCC posted far less expenditures yesterday than it usually does on Tuesday, including a strange omission of a number of seats in which it has been on air for weeks (the New Mexico, Ohio and New Jersey open seats, for instance). That suggests that there are still DCCC expenditures to come today, which will up the Democrats’ total (they have, after all, a lot of money to spend), but a few investments are very noteworthy.

The ease with which the DCCC invests amounts which appear prodigious when spent by the NRCC tells us all we need to know about the parties’ financial disparity. The DCCC just poured in a stunning $566K in IL-10. This is an extensive district to spend in because of the Chicago media market, certainly, but it is certainly a large buy - especially considering that Rep. Kirk appears to be gaining in recent polls. The committee spend more than $400,000 in NC-08, bringing its total investment in that district to nearly $2 million (the NRCC has spent nothing). The new spending is more than $300,000 in AZ-01, AZ-03, CO-04, MD-01 and almost reaches $200,000 in AL-02 (as I said, that is a lot of money to spend in an Alabama media market).

Given that nearly everyone has long expected AZ-01 to be among the easiest pick-ups for Democrats, it is somewhat bizarre that the DCCC is pouring that much money in the district, but that is their only defensive-looking move (if that can be said about a red district). Apart from that, the overall picture is as remarkable as last week: The NRCC is building a firewall in second-to-third tier seats while the DCCC is spending heavily on seats it should not even be thinking about: more than $700,000 of Democratic money spent in one day in AZ-03 and MD-01?! Who would have thought that would be possible just four weeks ago?

—

Alaska: Ted Stevens’s trial enters its final stage today, as the case will be handed to the jury which will start its deliberations. The always-useful Anchorage Daily News provides an overview of yesterday’s closing arguments - and through them a recap of what has happened in the trial over the past month. While Stevens’s defense made some important gains over the past month - in particular getting the judge to throw out some evidence - the trial’s last few days were not kind to the Alaska Senator. The government’s chief attorney got Stevens to lose his temper at times during his cross-examination, and she ridiculed his claim that a chair that had been in his house for seven years was a “loan” rather than “a gift.”

As soon as the jury returns, we shall have a much better idea of the dynamics of the race, as it is looking more likely every day that the trial’s verdict will also decide Stevens’ electoral fate. A new just-released Ivan Moore poll confirms that Stevens has closed the gap and that the race is now a dead heat; an acquittal would be likely to boost Stevens on top, while a guilty verdict would make it difficult for him to pull through. But what happens if the jury only partially acquits Stevens? He is, after all, being tried on seven different charges, so a guilty verdict might not be as damning as the prosecution would want it to be.

Poll watch: Trackings tighten but Obama remains in command; Hagan, Collins and M. Udall lead

Published
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Taniel
on October 18, 2008
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The latest tracking polls suggest the presidential race might be tightening. Though the trend lines are not uniform, Obama’s biggest lead is 7% whereas last Saturday three trackings had him at 9%, 10% and 12%. In fact, compared to last week four of five trackings have McCain in a significantly stronger position, while the margin is the same in the fifth. That said, it also looks like all the trackings are converging to a similar 6-7% range, with most of the six polls released today going in opposite directions but towards that margin:

  • Research 2000 had shown a double-digit lead for Obama (between 10% and 13%) since September 13th; today’s poll showed a lead of “only” 7%, 50% to 43%. Given the stability of the past three weeks, this was certainly a noticeable drop, especially because it is due to two consecutive nights of tighter polling (+6% on Wednesday night and +7% on Thursday night). On the other hand, IBD/TIPP had been showing a tighter race than the other trackings, but Obama has now opened up a 7% lead.
  • A third tracking poll (Diego Hotline) also shows a 7% lead, down from 10% yesterday but similar to the last pre-debate poll. Two other trackings have slightly smaller margins, but no uniform trends: Obama’s lead in Zogby goes from 5% to 4% while his edge in Rasmussen goes from 4% to 5%.
  • That leaves us with the silliness that has become Gallup’s tracking poll. Gallup’s reputation should make its tracking poll the most important of the bunch, but the firm’s decision to release three different daily measures is making this impossible to follow: Obama’s lead today is 2% (likely voters, traditional model), 4% (likely voters, expanded model and down from 6% yesterday) and 8% (registered voters, up from 7% yesterday). Gallup thus ensures it cannot be wrong by offering a variety of margins and a trend towards both men - but how are we to know just what model Gallup thinks reflects the situation on the ground, what model Gallup’s interviews are suggesting should be the closest to the truth?

Taken together, these polls should give the McCain campaign some reason to hope, as Obama’s lead appears to now be hovering in the mid-to-high single digits, a far more manageable gap than the double-digit advantage Obama was posting last week. It should also serve as a big relief for Republicans, as the post-debate snap polls favored Obama and suggested that the Democrat’s lead would grow rather than shrink.

That said, a 5% to 7% lead in the second half of October is far more significant than a similar lead in the summer. Bush only led by more than 5% in three polls in the entire month of October 2004. Furthermore, it will take a few more days to see whether the national tightening (if there is indeed a tightening) will be spread homogeneously across the country or if it will primarily affect certain regions or demographics. Yesterday, we saw a few post-debate state polls that had Obama in a commanding position (CO, NV and MO). Today’s state polls were taken before the debate, but they have good news for Obama:

  • Despite most recent polls showing Obama in the lead in Virginia, McCain leads in Real Virginia. It is unclear how many electoral votes the McCain campaign expects to gain from Real Virginia, nor by how much the GOP’s polls show McCain leading Real Virginia.
  • Obama leads 46% to 44% in a Research 2000 poll of North Carolina. A month ago, McCain led by 17%, but that survey looked like an outlier. The poll was taken on the 14th and 15th, so right before the debate.
  • Obama leads 53% to 38% in a Research 2000 poll of Maine. He leads 58% to 35% in the first district and 52% to 41% in the second district, so there is little danger of McCain snatching away an electoral vote.
  • Obama leads 47% to 43% in a poll of Florida conducted by a Democratic firm, Hamilton Campaigns, before the debate. One big problem in the poll’s internals is that Obama leads by 18% among Hispanics. Republicans are very strong among Florida Hispanics because of the high number of Cubans, and most other polls show McCain with a narrow edge among that constituency. Obama leads in the crucial Tampa region.

Meanwhile, in down-the-ballot polls:

  • Susan Collins leads 53% to 40% in a Research 2000 poll of Maine Senate race. 32% of Democrats cross-over to vote for Collins. She led by 19% in mid-September.
  • Mark Begich leads 48% to 46% in a Research 2000 poll of Alaska’s Senate race. A month ago, he led by 6%.
  • Ethan Berkowitz leads 50% to 44% in a Research 2000 poll of AK-AL. A month ago, he led by 14%.
  • In MN-06, an internal poll for the Bachmann campaign has her leading 44% to 33%. The poll was taken on the 12th and 13th. A DCCC poll taken last week had Bachmann leading by 4%.
  • In VA-02, Rep. Drake leads 47% to 42% in an internal poll for her Democratic challenger.
  • In CA-50, an internal poll for the Bilbray campaign has him leading 48% to 35%; an internal poll for the Leibham campaign has Bilbray leading 44% to 42%.

Senate: No surprises whatsoever among these four surveys: The Alaska race is entirely dependent on the outcome of Stevens’ trial (the jury should start to deliberate on Tuesday) while Hagan retains a slight edge. As for Maine, it is not looking good for Allen - just as we have known for months. It might make sense for the DSCC to invest in the race given how cheap the state’s media markets are, but the money could be put to better use with a bigger DSCC investment in Kentucky or Georgia.

House: Bachmann’s race is one many people are now interested in, and it confirms what we already know: Bachmann is slightly favored, but she is vulnerable. Depending on how much the DCCC invests, this race could certainly emerge as a hotspot, though Tinklenberg’s newly-raised half-a-million will certainly come in handy. In AK-AL, Berkowitz retains a lead but Young remains within striking distance, something other polls have also found. It is very much possible that a not guilty verdict for Stevens could also prove a boost for Young.

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