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Category Archive for ‘AL-GOP’ at Campaign Diaries
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Archive for the 'AL-GOP' Category


Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

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Super Tuesday results thread: McCain has big night despite good Huckabee results, Democrats split delegates remarkably equally

States called, GOP: McCain (CT, IL, NJ, DE, NY, OK, AZ, CA), Romney (MA, UT, ND, MN, CO, MT), Huckabee (WV, AR, AL, GA)

States called, Dem: Obama (GA, IL, DE, AL, ND, CT, CO, MO, UT, AK), Clinton (OK, AR, TN, NY, NJ, MA, AZ, CA)

3am: Last thought of the night will be on the California results, where Clinton is ahead 53% to 39% with 48% reporting. The counties where Obama is the strongest are reported much more rapidly than Clinton’s strongholds. Marin County (55-39 Obama) is 98% in, and San Fransisco (52-44 Obama) is 78% in. In contrast, LA County (59-36 Clinton) is 36% in, and Clinton’s margin there could force some good delegate splitting in even district delegates. McCain, on the other hand, is getting wins across the state, leaving little hope that Romney could win some many districts. McCain should get a big delegate lead in CA.
Meanwhile, with 47% of the vote reporting in NM, Clinton is back up by 900 votes!

2:25am: Clinton just sank in the caucus states, and that by itself likely cost her a delegate lead tonight. Look at Idaho for example, where Obama got 80% of a total of 20,000 voters (!). That means a 15-3 delegate lead for Barack. In Colorado, where Obama won 2:1 against Clinton, he gets a 13-6 delegate lead. As I already pointed out, Obama got a bigger edge in IL than Clinton did in NY, and that also is helping him offset Clinton’s big leads in places like AR and MA.

1:45am: With 30% reporting in California, Clinton is up 53% to 37%. In the last state to have not been called, Obama is up by 400 votes in New Mexico, with 38% reporting.

12:50am: Chuck Todd’s estimates of the delegates count paints a stunningly divided race. Counting estimates in New Mexico and California — the only states in which the margins are not clear yet — Todd gives 841 delegates to Obama, 837 for Clinton (+/- 10 for both candidates). The reason for this is Obama’s massive victories in the caucus states that have given him a very comfortable lead. Clinton had to perform better in places like Minnesota and Kansas.
Overall, the Democratic race could hardly be more equally divided. Clinton did win some very important races — California, Arizona, Massachusetts and New Jersey — but Obama’s victories in Connecticut, Alabama and Missouri are significant, especially when you consider that Obama held Clinton to smaller than expected margins in states like Tennessee.
Obama will emerge out of Super Tuesday with a pledged delegate lead, if you don’t count Florida and Michigan. And expect those two states to soon become a very contentious issue that the DNC will have to deal with very quickly.

12:40am: Fox calls Missouri for Obama, an important win for the Illinois Senator. MSNBC invents a category, calling Obama the “apparent winner” without explaining how that differs from a call. McCaskill immediately says, “This is Middle America, this is not the far coast.” She also feels the need to say that, “I don’t agree with all of Senator Kennedy’s policy positions” before praising Kennedy’s endorsement…
Depending on how big Clinton wins California, Missouri should allow Obama to get the media to cover this as a tie. It is worth noting that his two most significant primary wins tonight (CT and MO) came in very small margins, and Obama has a bigger margin in Alabama.

12:25 am: NBC/CNN call California for both McCain and Clinton. This is huge news for both candidates, as it looks like neither race was that close. This should allow her to get a significant delegate lead out of California and offset whatever problems she faced in Illinois and even in places like Tennessee. In the Republican side, this confirms McCain’s big night. How are conservatives are going to stop McCain’s momentum with his hugely significant win in CA and Missouri? For the entire night the networks were talking about a bad McCain night with one CNN journalist wondering why we weren’t waiting for California. Within 15 minutes, McCain has turned the storyline around.

12:20am: Missouri called for McCain. This is a gigantic win for the Arizona Senator, and it is going to make it extremely difficult for his rivals to continue contesting this race. McCain wins 58 delegates here, and it is not going to be easy for his rivals to keep the delegate count close. The networks are speculating on why McCain failed tonight, but if he holds on in California (as both early results and exit polls suggest he might) it is going to be a big night for him.

12:10am: Obama has pulled ahead in Missouri, in a key move for him if he wants to spin this as a split decision. If California goes Clinton (which is obviously not a given for now) a victory in Missouri would be big for Obama. In California, with 15% reporting, it’s 55% to 32% for Clinton, though the regions of the state are not at all reporting at the same rhythm so these numbers will fluctuate. But remember the CNN exit polls are pointing at a strong Clinton showing here.

Midnight: Barack Obama takes hits at Clinton in his speech. The US needs a “clear choice,” he said, giving a list of reasons he is a much clearer alternative than Hillary (he cites original Iraq vote, not wavering on torture, Iran).
Colorado and Montana are called for Romney, in success for his caucus strategy that is starting to get him some major victories.
In Missouri, McCain is pulling ahead, now 7000 votes ahead with 94% percent in. As always in Missouri, St. Louis is coming in late and transforming the results, making Huckabee go down and lose 58 delegates… and making the Democratic race agonizingly close. (I apologize for covering this as a battle for victories, when it really doesn’t matter in the delegate race whether Obama or Clinton get 7000 votes more. It is hard to break out of the horse race habits.)
It is also worth pointing out — in the context of delegate allocation, that is very important — that Clinton’s win in Tennessee is now smaller than it seemed a few hours ago. She is leading 54% to 41%, and that should prevent her from getting too big a delegate lead. As I explained this morning, the distribution of which districts have even/odd delegates makes it very hard for Clinton to get a delegate lead here at the district level unless she wins big statewide.

11:45pm: Two big calls: Arizona is called for Clinton, and Tennessee is called for Huckabee. Polls were showing a very tight race in both states. Colorado goes Obama, like all the other caucus states, with a huge margin. While these wins were expected, Obama is going to get some big delegate leads out of Colorado, Minnesota, etc.
What a race in Missouri! McCain is now ahead by 3000 votes, with 91% reporting. Don’t forget (I can’t say it enough) that Missouri is a winner-take-all state, so McCain could be on his way from getting all 58 delegates. It would be very hard for In the Democratic race, it’s down 49-48!
Obama gets to the podium and starts his speech while McCain is still talking… But McCain stops talking just as Obama was about to say his first sentence, in strangely coincidental timing.

11:35pm: The delegate allocation in NY and IL is now coming in, and it bring good news for Obama who picked up a lot of delegates in New York. He got 90 delegates in NY, versus 142 for Clinton, a 52 delegate margin. In Illinois, Clinton gets 43 delegates only, with 110 for Obama, a 67 delegate margin. That’s a great margin for Barack.
One interesting note: Clinton won the only majority black district of New York, NYC’s 15th district, represented by Charlie Rangel (a major Clinton endorser). Clinton won 54% to 46% — but she had to split the delegates since it was an even number district.
More good news for Obama in Delaware, where he gets a 9 to 6 delegate lead for the entire state. And he is also likely to get some big delegate margins in the caucus states, as he is winning places like ND, KS with big proportions.

11:30pm: Exit polls in California are showing Obama winning the white vote, 49% to 43% but losing the Latino vote 66% to 33%. The Latino vote was the key measure we were waiting for in California, and it looks like the Kennedy effort to push Obama up in that group has not gone his candidate that far.
Meanwhile, in Missouri, Huckabee is up 214 votes with 87% reporting, but St. Louis is coming in slowly and Huckabee only has 17% in that county… That could spell trouble for Huckabee. With 88% reporting in Tennessee, Huckabee is up 34% to 32% with Romney.

11:15pm: Missouri is now a three point race in the Democratic side, with Obama rising quickly. Meanwhile, it’s worth pointing out that Obama’s lead in Alabama is much narrower than it appeared at first, which is obviously very significant in the context of delegate allocation. With 90% reporting, he is leading 56% to 42% — a big margin but better for Clinton than the 70% he was getting a few minutes ago.
Romney wins Minnesota, a caucus state, though the delegate allocation is proportional. The rules are really messing up any chance Romney had to make news tonight.

11:05pm: Polls close in California! The exit polls right now show McCain and Clinton up narrowly. In another key Western state, Arizona, Clinton is up 51% to 40% with 39% of the precincts reporting.
But the CRUCIAL state right now is Missouri, in both parties: With 78% reporting, McCain just took the lead here by a thousand votes. Don’t forget, this is winner-take-all. McCain wins by a vote, he gets 58 delegates. The Democratic race is also fascinating. Clinton is leading 51% to 46% but St. Louis and Kansas City are still coming in so Obama is still in the hunt for a win here.

10:55pm: Claiming victory in an upbeat speech, Clinton claims victory in… American Samoa!
Meanwhile, Minnesota is called for Obama, an important state which was holding a caucus, advancing the sweep of the caucus states for Obama. This gives him a good list of states… with Colorado probably coming out soon.

10:50pm: McCain wins Arizona. That is not a surprise at all, but it did take more than 90 minutes for his state to be called. As many of McCain’s strongholds, Arizona is winner-take-all so Romney is completely shut out of the state’s delegate.

10:45pm: VERY big win for Huckabee, as Georgia was just called for him. The state allocates 33 delegates winner-take-all statewide, with the rest being distributed district-by-district. Those 33 delegates are obviously very good for Huck.
For Obama supporters in Missouri, the good news is that Jackson County (Kansas City) is also reporting slower than the rest of the rest and Obama is doing better than Clinton there. But this is also bad news for Huckabee, who is trailing in those portions of the state.

10:35pm: Speaking second, Romney vows to press on, though he has nothing much to claim but victory in MA and UT…
In Missouri, Clinton is ahead 53% to 43% with 58% reporting, but St. Louis and its county are reporting much more slowly, so don’t count Obama out just yet in Missouri. He also is leading 2:1 in Colorado, with 10% reporting, getting close to a sweep of the caucus state.
Also, the New Jersey numbers are getting closer now, with Clinton up “only” 53% to 45%.

10:30pm: Obama prevails in Connecticut, a huge victory for his campaign. This was a state that was supposed to go for Clinton, in the Tri-State area. This will definitely be used in Obama’s spin going forward, a good win in Clinton’s backyard. Obama’s lead is only 50% to 47%, so the candidates are likely to split the delegates pretty equally here.

10:20pm: Obama is continuing to do well in the caucus states. Kansas was just called for him, as he is leading 72% to 27% there with 67% in. Meanwhile, Huckabee is continuing to do well in Missouri (up 35% to 32%), in Georgia (also up 35% to 32%) and Tennessee (up 34% to 32% with 68% in). A win in MO and GA would get Huckabee a lot of delegates. Romney is doing a bit better in caucus states now, leading in both Montana and Minnesota.

10:10pm: Mike Huckabee is the first candidate to take the stage and he claims he is now in a “two-person race.” And indeed he is likely to come out ahead of Romney in the delegate count, but that is because alll the states in which Romney is much much stronger than Huckabee (the Tri-State area for example) are winner-take-all. In New York for example, Huckabee gets 11%. The same is true in CT and NJ. But since Romney is shut out as well, this will not appear in the delegate results.

10pm: Romney wins Utah, an unsurprising result (a recent poll gave him 81%). Obama wins North Dakota and Utah, two caucus states (he is leading ND 61% to 37% with 89% in).
New York is going bigger for Clinton than expected, 60% to 38% with 47% reporting, though Obama is doing better in Illinois, winning with 65%. Both candidates are likely to open some delegate leads in their home states, but we will have to take a look district-by-district to know whether Clinton and Obama managed to force ties in even districts.
With 46% reporting, Huckabee and McCain are completely tied in Tennessee, at 33%,. This would be another big potential win for Huckabee, though the states he is winning are not winner-take-all.

9:50pm: Oklahoma is called for McCain, a good win in a very conservative state. And the caucus states for now are not going for Romney, a surprise given his efforts in those states and given his big victories in places like Wyoming, Maine and Nevada. This night is not going well for Romney. Huckabee is taking the role of McCain’s alternative. Though this could change depending on what happens in California. But even there, a Romney victory would not get him that many delegates.

9:40pm: Obama is winning in the caucus states comfortably right now (leading in MN, Kansas, Idaho, all big) and he is holding out for a win in Connecticut. With 50% in, it’s 50% to 48% for Obama but New Haven and Hartford, two cities that are supposed to help Obama, are coming in very slowly.
With 22% in, we are starting to have a better idea of Missouri with Clinton up 19% and Huckabee up 5%. Obama should do better once St. Louis starts coming in.
Right now, Clinton is leading 462 delegates to 392. Among Republicans, McCain has won 302 (credit NY + CT + NJ), with Huckabee 48 and Romney 44.

9:30pm: Some big projections were just announced. Clinton took Massachusetts and New Jersey, two states that her campaign was very worried about. Alabama was called for Obama, and he appears to be winning it big. All these results appear to be rather comfortable, which is surprising given the very tight polls. Massachusetts is being portrayed as a semi-upset for Clinton, and the size of her victory is indeed a bit embarrassing for Kennedys… if it holds that big (Boston hasn’t come in yet).
Meanwhile, Huckabee is continually to do well, leading in Missouri, Georgia and… Minnesota (surprisingly). And Alabama’s call for Huckabee is being confirmed by MSNBC. Confirming that Romney is not doing well as of right now, he is not even leading in caucus states!

9:20pm: New York called for McCain, 101 delegates winner-take all go for the Arizona Senator. Not a surprise at all, but McCain is amassing delegates…
On the Democratic race, the key exit poll out of New York is that Clinton got more than 70% of the Latino vote. If that holds in California, it could spell trouble for the Obama campaign.
Obama is still ahead in Connecticut, in what could be his biggest victory yet given that CT is in Clinton’s backyard. But we are not there yet, as the lead is only 50-47. Clinton is looking good still in New Jersey and is not weakining in Massachusetts with 30% in. Meanwhile, Fox looked to have been wrong on the Alabama call, as McCain is ahead comfortably for now, with 15% in.

9:10pm: Obama won his first competitive primary, it’s Delaware. This is surprising given that it is a coastal Atlantic state, and, despite it being a small state it is a good win for Obama.
In Georgia, the numbers have not moved with 41% in, with Huckabee 3% up McCain and 6% up Romney.

9pm: Clinton wins New York. All other states closing at 9 — including Arizona’s GOP race — have not been called yet. The exit poll in Arizona has McCain up by a few points only, very surprisingly. Remember, however, that Arizona is winner-take-all.
In Missouri, with 4% in, Clinton is up 56% to 37% for Obama. In Massachusetts, Clinton is up huge right now — but Boston has not come in at all yet, so a lot of votes are outstanding.
A note on Alabama: It has been called by FoxNews, not by any other networks. And McCain is winning the vote for now. So I have not included it in the final cont for now.

8:55pm: Things are looking much tighter than in the second wave of exit polls, as I already noted earlier (and warned could happen). With 30% in, Obama is now up 48% to 46% in Delaware, but Clinton is pulling ahead in Massachusetts, 56% to 40% with 11% in. With 5% in, Clinton is up big in New Jersey, 62% to 34%. With 12% in, McCain is up 2% on Huckabee in Oklahoma.
We are now waiting for the 9pm states to close, including New York, New Mexico, Colorado.

8:45pm: Delaware called for McCain. It’s a winner take all state, so Romney is shutout here as well. With 16% in, Obama is up 50% to 45%, but no projection yet.
In Georgia, it’s 35% Huckabee, 32% McCain and 29% for Romney with 25% in. But the strongest Romney counties, around Atlanta, are coming very slowly, so Romney could still come back and win this thing.
Massachusetts is starting to coming in as well, with Clinton up 9% with 7% reporting.

8:30pm: Clinton and Huckabee are declared winners in Arkansas. Clinton declared winner in Tennessee. No surprises here.
Meanwhile, Romney is suddenly competitive in Georgia, 34% Huckabee to 31% for Romney and McCain.

8:25pm: Alabama is called for Huckabee! This is the first competitive state to be called, and Huckabee is starting to have a very good night. Not only did he win West Virginia, but Alabama was a genuinely competitive state. Worth noting that Romney was not competitive in Alabama. In Georgia, we have 10% in with Huckabee at 37% to 33% for McCain.
Obama is staying stable in Connecticut, up 50% to 48% with 10% reporting now.

8:20pm: Updates from the Southern states: In Georgia, With 7% in, Obama is up 55% to 40%. Huckabe is up 37% to 33% for McCain with Romney at 25%. Exit polls look to be really good for Obama and Huckabee in Alabama. In Tennessee, Clinton looks good and so does Huckabee. Can Huckabee sweep the South? And in the all important Missouri, exit polls show Romney-McCain tied and Obama-Clinton tied as well.
And with 4% in in Connecticut, it’s 51% to 46% for Obama.

8:10pm: New Jersey called for McCain.
CNN’s exit poll shows McCain up in Oklahoma for now, though it’s too close for now. In CT, the exit poll has a small lead for Obama. The MA exit poll has a tie at 48-48 for Democrats. Clinton has a tiny exit poll lead in NJ. All of these states are very close; there has been a tightening since the second wave of exits.

8pm: Projections GOP: Connecticut, Illinois called for McCain; Massachusetts called for Romney; Missouri, Tennessee, New Jersey (!), Oklahoma, Delaware, Alabama too close to call. Projections Democrats: Illinois called for Obama; Oklahoma called for Clinton; Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, Missouri, New Jersey, Tennessee

7:45pm: At 8pm are closing: Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Massachusetts, Missouri, New Jersey, Oklahoma, Tennessee
Important reminder about the early exit polls I reported at 6:20: The second wave had Obama had 75% in Georgia. Now the third exit poll poll wave have Obama up around 65%. Keep that in mind when assessing how much trust to put in the second wave. With 2% reporting, Obama is up 56% to 38%, with McCain up 36% to 34% for Huckabee and 26% for Romney.

7:15pm: All eyes are on Georgia right now, where the GOP primary is looking like a toss-up. The newly-updated CNN exit poll gives a tiny lead to Huckabee, approximately 33% to 31% with McCain at 30%. This is going to be a very long night for Georgia Republicans. Among Democrats, Obama looks to have about 66% of the vote… and 88% of the black vote with Clinton at 11%. The exit poll shows Clinton winning the white vote 57% to 39%. That could mean Clinton is shut out of delegates in some major districts.

7pm: Polls have closed in Georgia and no surprise here. The state is called for Barack Obama, and the Republican race is too close to call (3-way).
CNN’s national exit polls show that those who decided in the last 3 days have split their votes equally, 47% going to Obama and 46% for Clinton. That has got to be reassuring for Clinton as Obama’s camp was counting on a last minute surge. And a note to all those whose tension is rising fast: 71% of Clinton voters would be happy with Obama, and 72% of Obama voters will be happy with Clinton.

6:20pm: The first hints at exit polls are coming from the National Review which is reporting on the second wave of GOP numbers. California (40-36 McCain), Missouri (34-32 Romney) and Georgia (34-31-30 Huck) are all very close, so there is hope for those who are trying to derail McCain. Meanwhile, Huckabee looks stronger than expected throughout the South. Meanwhile, the second wave of exit polls on the Democratic side comes to us from MyDD and they have good news for Obama who looks good in AL, GA, IL, who leads in CT (53-45), DE (56-42), NJ (53-47), MO (50-46). MA is close, and Clinton can count on NY but by a smaller margin than she hoped. First wave numbers in California have Clinton very narrowly up.
Remember those are all very early exit polls, they do not include absentee and early-voting, and things will still move a lot in the coming hours. We all know how much the exit polls favored Kerry on Election Day 2004, and that’s because second wave exit polls are not meant to be that reliable. So no one should start celebrating.

Original post: The first polls close in an hour, and we are waiting for the first batch of exit polls. Of course, we already know the results from one state, with Huckabee’s West Virginia victory. This will certainly be a long night, with California closing at 8pm PT, 11pm ET. Alaska will close even later. Though we could very well see a trend forming. As I have said a few times, a 2-3% uptick for either candidate could be enough for them to sweep most close states.

For now, you can read these guidelines of what to watch for tonight.


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Super Tuesday guidelines: What to watch for tonight

My analysis of the Democratic and Republican delegate allocations will serve as my detailed preview of Super Tuesday, but here is a quick overview of what to look for tonight, and what states will be most important in determining tomorrow morning’s headlines:

California, for both parties: Few people expected the Romney come back in California, but the primary here is closed and conservatives have rallied around Romney over the past week, giving him an opening to win the Golden State. Unfortunately for Romney, a win would not necessarily mean a delegate lead, since every district attributes 3 delegates (winner-take-all), whether they are a heavily conservative districts with hundreds of thousands of GOP voters or a liberal San Fransisco area with only a few thousands voters in a Republican primary. Ultimately, California will matter as a symbol in the GOP race. It will be much easier for Romney to justify continuing the race if he wins the country’s biggest state.

Among Democrats, California will be essential to determining the storyline, though here also delegates are likely to be mostly split. An Obama victory would be the dramatic exclamation point to the candidate’s surge over the past week, and give us a measure of his momentum going forward. If Clinton holds on to the state, it will allow her campaign to make the argument that Obama’s momentum is being overstated, just as in New Hampshire. Polls have shown big leads for both candidates, so there is an expectation that Obama could do well today; that means — however unfair that is — that even a narrow Clinton win would be presented as a great victory for the New York Senator, just as in New Hampshire.

Illinois and New York, Democrats: Obama and Clinton will (almost) no doubt win their home states, but their margin of victory will determine just how big a lead of delegate they get. Will Clinton cross 15% in the Chicago districts? Will she cross 30% in most districts, allowing her to force a delegate split in the even-delegate districts? Will Obama do the same in upstate New York districts that award even number of delegates? (More information about this delegate distribution here) Will he win some districts in New York City that he has targeted?

Missouri, both parties: This is a must-win state for Mitt Romney, perhaps even the must-win state. 58 delegates are at stake in the only winner-take-all primary that is a toss-up, and Romney needs those delegates to stay close in the final delegate count. Even with a California victory, it will make very little sense for Romney to continue if McCain has amassed a big delegate lead and is approaching a majority.

For Democrats, the race has been equally close and Obama really wants to win here to be able to make the argument that Clinton cannot win in purple states and away from the coasts and argue that he is the best placed to win over swing voters in the general election. For Clinton, a victory here would allow her to counter the storyline of Obama’s surge — just as in California.

Georgia, Republicans: The Democratic race is not very suspenseful here, and expect it to be called early (it is the only state where polls close at 7pm). But this is one of the most important states in the GOP contest. Not only do polls show a complete three-way toss-up between Huckabee, McCain and Romney, but the winner gets 33 at-large winner-take-all delegates (there also are districts allocated by district). As I already said, Romney needs to keep himself close to McCain in the delegate count and he needs Missouri and Georgia in his column to do so.

Connecticut and New Jersey, Democrats: In Clinton’s backyard, these two states were long considered strongholds for the New York Senator. But recent polls have shown a tight race, especially in Connecticut. A loss in either of these states, while not dramatic delegate wise (especially in CT), would be very embarrassing for Clinton. The results here are also likely to come early in the morning and thus shape coverage more than results in states that report later.

Massachusetts, Democrats: Clinton was long massively ahead but Ted Kennedy (and, to a lesser degree, John Kerry)’s endorsement have given a tremendous boost to Obama’s organization. Polls since then have been very contradictory, ranging from a narrow Obama edge to a large Clinton lead. This is another state whose results could be known early and that could prove embarrassing to the NY Senator.

Alabama, both parties: Huckabee is hoping to complete a Southern surge that started to register in the polls in the past few days and take Alabama from McCai; he is also hoping for a strong showing in Tennessee. Romney seems out of the game in both of these states but needs Huckabee to poll well to deprive McCain of some nominees and stay close to him in the delegate count.

Among Democrats, Alabama is shaping as the only close Southern primary, especially since Edwards’s withdrawal threw white voters in Clinton’s camp. Polls show a complete toss-up here, and a victory here could give the winner’s campaign one more thing to boast about tomorrow morning. After all, with Obama and Clinton likely to split delegates, it will all come down to a battle of symbols.

There obviously are a lot of other storylines (especially in the Democratic race, where every state will feature a major delegate fight, even places that a candidate is expected to win solidly). So to help us through the night, here is a quick assesment of where things stand (the “Lean X” lists are organized from the safest to the less safe states). First, for Democrats:

Leaning Clinton: New York, Arkansas, Tennessee, Oklahoma

Leaning Obama: Georgia, Colorado, Utah, Idaho, North Dakota

Toss-up: California, Alabama, Missouri, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Kansas, Arizona, New Mexico

And for Republicans:

Lean McCain: New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Arizona, Illinois, Oklahoma

Lean Romney: Utah, Massachusetts, the caucus states (despite little evidence of what is going on): Colorado, North Dakota, Alaska, Minnesota, Montana

Lean Huckabee West Virginia (already won!), Arkansas

Toss-up: California, Tennessee, Georgia, Missouri, Delaware, Alabama


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Poll roller coaster continues, with SUSA showing Clinton holding firm with 12 hours to go

Whatever the results tomorrow, there will be a group of pollsters that will come out the clear losers of the run-up to Super Tuesday. On the one side we have groups like Zogby and Rasmussen which show Obama with higher-than-average results, on the other are Mason-Dixon, ARG and SUSA which are much much more reassuring to Clinton’s chances. Depending on which institute has released the latest wave of polls, Clinton and Obama supporters are trading optimism for depression and vice-versa.

What can these discrepancies be attributed to? It is important to note that each institute is consistent in showing an Obama uptick or a Clinton uptick: Zogby has great Obama results in California but also in Missouri and New Jersey; and Mason-Dixon and SUSA have Clinton up higher than expected in most of their polls as well. This suggests that pollsters are using widely differing turnout models — not only with the composition of the electorate but how many new voters show up and who these new voters are. Don’t necessarily assume that new voters favor one candidate or the other, as both Iowa and New Hampshire Democrats voted in record numbers… to differing results. At this point there is no way of knowing which pollster we should trust, and we will have to wait for the results to come in tomorrow.

Meanwhile, here are the latest trends, mostly based on SUSA’s massive release of polls. First up, of course, is the big prize of California, the state for which we could stay up very late tomorrow night:

  • SUSA has Clinton up 53% to 41% in a week-end poll, which is a slight improvement for the NY Senator who led 49% to 38% last week. The key finding of the poll is that 34% of voters have already voted, and Clinton leads by 12% among those as well. The second crucial internal from the poll is that Latinos (27% of the electorate here) are giving 71% of their vote to Clinton.
  • The Republican numbers are in line with other numbers and have a toss-up between McCain at 39% and Romney at 36%. A week ago, McCain had 36% and Romney had 25%, so this is a significant progression for Romney. Among those who have already voted (35%), Romney is down 5%.

I have long emphasized that early-voting was a big hurdle that Obama and Romney would have to overcome. And while there is no question that many of the people who voted Clinton early would have voted Hillary anyway, there is little doubt that some voters who are now locked in could have been susceptible to this late Obama momentum.

Next, we get three polls from Clinton and Obama’s home states:

  • In New York, SUSA shows Clinton staying ahead 56% to 38%, a bigger margin than in some other polls we have seen. Clinton really needs to get a massive delegate lead here to offset possible losses elsewhere. Worth noting is that Obama wins the male vote, in what is a 44% gender gap!
  • In PPP’s survey, Clinton has a similar lead, 51% to 32%.
  • The GOP numbers have McCain up 56% to 23% in SUSA and 49% to 24% in PPP.
  • In Illinois, it’s Obama that is widely ahead in the SUSA poll 66% to 30%. Clinton only gets 17% of the white vote.
  • Among Republicans, McCain does not tremble, 46% to 25% for Romney and 17% for Huck.

The Democratic numbers in these states are actually very important, as Illinois and New York will attribute a large numbers of delegates and both candidates want to get a lead in their home states to offset potential losses elsewhere. In New York, Clinton has a robust lead in all regions of the state, but Obama is also coming in consistently above 30% which should allow him to split delegates equally in all districts that allocate an even number of delegates! Clinton’s Illinois position is a bit more precarious, as she is weak enough overall that she could let Obama get two extra delegates in even districts. And don’t be surprised if Clinton gets shut out in some districts of Chicago.

Completing the Northeast picture, SUSA releases final numbers from New Jersey, Connecticut and Massachusetts. Polls from all three have shown tight races in the past week but SUSA partly disagrees:

  • In New Jersey, SUSA gives Clinton a reassuring 52% to 41% lead, in line with another poll released this morning that showed Clinton holding firm in the Garden State. The gender gap is 42%.
  • In Massachusetts, SUSA has Clinton surviving 56% to 39% thanks to a 62% gender gap!! SUSA does show a 7% Obama progression in a week.
  • In Connecticut, however, it’s Obama, 48% to 46% (he led 48% to 44% a few days ago) in a race with a small gender gap, small age gap and small geographical differences.
  • All those states show no suspense in the GOP race, and only MA is not winner-take-all and so the margin has to be watched. In NJ, it’s McCain 54-25; in Connecticut, 52-30. And in Massachusetts, Romney is up 58-30.

In many ways, Clinton would rather lose Massachusetts than Connecticut. Losing the former could be attributed to Kennedy’s influence, while Connecticut is in Clinton’s own backyard. And with that we move to Missouri, a swing state in both parties in which SUSA once again is kind to the New York Senator:

  • Clinton is up 54% to 43%, a noticeable progression since SUSA’s poll released earlier this week in what SUSA calls “Last Minute Momentum to Clinton.” It had been a while Hillary’s camp hadn’t read those words.
  • The GOP ’s Missouri primary might be the single most important contest in the Republican race, as the winner will get all of the state’s 58 delegates. And as in many other polls, SUSA has it too close to call, with McCain at 33%, Huckabee 31% and Romney 28%.

Both Obama and Romney really want to win this state. A Clinton victory here would allow her to show she has appeal in the Midwest and that she can attract voters in a purple state that has been leaning red. And a McCain win would virtually leave Romney no path towards keeping the delegate count close.

And with that we move South, to Georgia and Alabama which are holding very tight contests as well. In Alabama, it is the Democratic race which is key now that Edwards’s withdrawal has opened up a path for Clinton to win if the electorate in the South stays as racially polarized as in SC. We got three polls from AL:

  • SUSA shows Obama up 49% to 47%, CPR has Clinton up 48% to 44% and Insider Advantage shows a toss-up, with Obama at 45% and Clinton at 44%.
  • Among Republicans, AL has long been a McCain-Huckabee contest. SUSA has McCain stumbling a bit in the past few days and now up 37% to 35%, CPR has it at 36-30.
  • In Georgia, PPP confirms Obama’s lead 53% to 37%, but it is the GOP race that is more important in this state. PPP pits it at 31-29-27 (McCain-Romney-Huckabee), with Insider Advantage at 32 McCain-31 Romney-26 Huckabee.
  • The latest updates from Tennessee and Oklahoma (PPP and SUSA) respectively confirm that Clinton has a wide lead there (56-34 and 54-27) but the GOP race is closer (34-28 for McCain-Huck in TN and 37-32 between them in Oklahoma).

As alw
ays, these numbers tell us first and foremost that the delegate count will probably stay close in the Dem race. And odds are that, if one candidate emerges with a significant delegate lead, it will be because of the margins in New York and Illinois rather than because of who won Missouri, California and Connecticut by a point of two.

  • General election poll

A quick note about RAsmussen’s latest general election numbers which are as over the place as the primary polls: McCain leads Clinton 47% to 39% but ties Obama at 44%. But the electability is reversed in Romney’s matchups, as Clinton crushes him 50% to 37% and Obama is much closer, 44% to 41%. Rasmussen had only released Clinton-McCain and Romney-Obama yesterday and the rest today, so it appears that those two match-ups were tested in one sample, and that Clinton-Romney and McCain-Obama were tested in another. Simple sample differences would then explain why the first two are much more favorable to Democrats than the last two. I don’t know, however, why such a sample split would be a good idea.


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Obama rising, but Clinton has not sank just yet

Yesterday’s series of polls showed Barack Obama gaining ground across the country in his effort to topple Clinton’s national lead. But while Obama clearly has the momentum going into Super Tuesday, Clinton is still ahead in most polls taken in most states. In fact, the only states in which Obama has been shown to have in any survey have been Colorado (one poll had him up 2), Connecticut (one poll had him up 4), Georgia, Illinois and Alabama (though new polls today have Obama down).

Things are going well with for Obama, but Clinton has not sank just yet. Obama might be getting very close to Clinton, but he has not closed the gap entirely just yet. And while he does not need to win a majority of the states to stay alive since the Democratic primary is now a delegate race, he still needs to get some victories here and there. The question then is whether Obama will have enough time in the next three days to capitalize on his momentum. And a series of polls released today suggests Clinton is still able to hold firm.

Gallup’s national tracking poll had Obama gaining for nine consecutive days, pulling within 3% yesterday, 44% to 41%. Today was the first day with the entire sample being taken after Edwards’s withdrawal, but it is Clinton that benefited the most! As Edwards dropped from 8% to 4%, Clinton rose from 44% to 48%, now ahead of Obama by 7%! The last day Edwards was in the race, the numbers were 42-36-14. Edwards has lost 10% since then, Clinton has gained 6% and Obama 5%, so the theory that Obama is benefiting the most from Edwards’s withdrawal is not supported by this survey. Among Republicans, McCain has shot up at 44%, ahead of Romney’s 24%. McCain has moved up 12% since Giuliani’s withdrawal.

Edwards’s withdrawal is also hurting Obama in Alabama, where two new polls have Clinton in the lead. Alabama is shaping up to be one of the most interesting Super Tuesday states, and also one of the most racialy polarized as Clinton dominates among whites and Obama among blacks. Yesterday’s SUSA poll had the race tied at 47%. Today:

  • Rasmussen shows Clinton ahead 46% to 41%. She is helped by her decent showing among blacks, as she gets 30% — much more than she did in South Carolina. But the electorate’s racial polarization is revealed by this stunning internal: Only 51% of white voters have a favorable image of Obama, versus 82% of blacks!
  • Among the GOP, Rasmussen shows McCain holding to a lead even in this Southern state, ahead of Mike Huckabee 38% to 30%, with Mit Romney at 20%.
  • Insider Advantage came out with similar results in the Democratic race. Clinton is ahead 46% to 40%. Among Republicans, McCain is barely up 37% to 35% to Huckabee with Romney at 14%.

Obama was hoping to count on victories in Alabama and Georgia to complete a Southern strategy, which is what will make Alabama’s results so interesting. Another Southern state in which Obama is trailing is Tennessee, where many polls have given a big lead to Clinton:

  • A new Rasmussen survey shows Hillary is ahead 49% to 35%. The electorate is even more polarized in this state, and Obama is having trouble to break through because the African-American electorate is smaller here than in Georgia or South Carolina. Obama is ahead 71% to 12% among blacks, while Clinton is ahead 61% to 23% among whites.
  • Rasmussen also polled the GOP contest and found a three-way contest between McCain’s 32%, Romney’s 29% and Huckabee’s 23%.
  • A second Tennessee poll was released today by WSMV-TV and shows a tighter race, 36% to 30% for Clinton. But there are a massive number of undecideds as the poll apparently did not push them very hard at all. The internals are also off, as Clinton barely leads among females but has a large lead among men. The same is true of the GOP race, where Huckabee has 24%, McCain 23% and Romney 18%.

Next we have a poll from Missouri, another key battleground state on Tuesday for both parties which Obama has put at the center of his strategy and where Romney is hoping to perhaps derail McCain.

  • Yesterday’s SUSA poll showed Clinton leading 48% to 44%. Today, a Rasmussen poll has Clinton further ahead, 47% to 38%. 11% of voters still support Edwards — in a poll taken after his withdrawal. Just a week ago, Clinton was up 43% to 24%, with Edwards at 18%, confirming that Missouri could have been a strong Edwards state.
  • Among Republicans, the race is as close as can be, with McCain up 32% to 29% to Huckabee and 28% for Romney.

Missouri offers a perfect example of what I mean when I ask whether Obama will have enough time to catch up. He has made up a lot of ground in the past week, including in Clinton strongholds like New Jersey and New York. But Clinton was so ahead as of a week ago that her loss of 10-15% is still leaving her in the lead.

This poll is also a perfect illustration for the fact that Romney and Huckabee are preventing each other from overtaking McCain by coalescing the conservative vote. Because of the division of the anti-McCain conservatives, McCain will probably be able to coast to wins in most states with no trouble.

Finally, a new Chicago Tribune poll confirms that Obama has no trouble holding his home-state and that McCain is comfortably ahead in blue states:

  • McCain leads 43% to 20% for Romney, with Huckabee at 15%.
  • Among Democrats, Clinton trails by a massive 55% to 24% — much superior to Clinton’s lead in New York.

Clinton’s main objective in Illinois is to cross the 15% viability threshold statewide (which she should have no trouble doing) and in each of the 19 congressional districts which could be difficult for her in some areas of the state. Consider, however, that if Clinton can get even 38% in a four-delegate district, she will force an equal split of delegates. If she gets 20% in a three-delegate, she will get one of three of the allocated delegates — in other words 33%, much more than her share of the vote. Obama will force similar splits in New York, and it is because of such rules that the Democratic contest could still be a toss-up come Wednesday morning.

Update: In response to a comment, these polls do not tell us anything about the debate’s impact just yet. The Rasmussen polls, for example, were all conducted on Thursday so they don’t incorporate any swing the debate might have produced. Furthermore, Obama is rising in those polls, even among those he is still trailing widely in. The Rasmussen polls of Alabama and Missouri that have Clinton ahead had her leading by a much larger margin just a week ago, and Obama has surged by at least 10% in both of them. The point is that his rise is for now not enough to overtake Clinton, though things could still change in the next three days… in either direction.


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New series of polls has Obama gaining ground in key Super Tuesday battlegrounds

So much for my complaint this morning that there weren’t enough Super Tuesday polls. A series of surveys released early this afternoon (2 from Connecticut, 2 from New Jersey, 1 from New York, Illinois and Alabama) have Obama gaining ground in some key battlegrounds. He is clearly moving upwards, the question now being whether he will have time to rise a few more points to upset Clinton across the board come Tuesday. Now imagine how suspenseful this week would have been if Romney had won in Florida three days ago, as both races would then be tight heading into Tuesday.

Overall, all these polls paint a very divided Democratic electorate, with both candidates consistent in what groups they are strongest in. Keep an eye on the stunning gender gap in particular, that is often close to 30 to 40%. Obama gets men, Clinton gets women. Most polls also have Clinton up among whites and Obama among blacks, with Clinton holding firm among Latinos.

First, Gallup’s national tacking poll that has the race tightening for the 9th straight day. Now, Clinton’s lead is down to 3%, 44% to 41%. Among Republicans, McCain is ahead 39% to 24% against Romney and 17% to Huckabee. Fox News also has a national poll out and it shows a bit better news for Clinton, who is still leading 47% to 37%. The national polls are obviously very instructive at this point, since February 5th is as close to a national primary day as the US has ever seen.

And with that we got an impressive series of state polls. First up, Alabama and a new SUSA poll:

  • Among Democrats, Clinton and Obama are tied at 47%. Clinton has a massive lead among white voters (65% to 28%) and Obama among blacks (72% to 23%).
  • Among Republicans, McCain is ahead with 40% to Hucakbee’s 31% and Romney’s 21%.

Alabama should be one of the most fascinating states to watch on Tuesday night. Edwards’s withdrawal means that the white vote will not divide itself between Clinton and Obama and the racial polarization of the Southern states will greatly help Clinton here. The proportion of black voters in Alabama is inferior to that of Georgia and South Carolina so that Clinton now has a chance of pulling out a victory here. Among Republicans, the few Southern states that are voting on Tuesday are must-wins for Huckabee, so these numbers are bad news for him.

Next, we move to the Tri-State area where Obama is climbing fast. First, New Jersey from which we get two polls today:

  • GQR has Obama closing the gap, now only behind 44% to 38%. Edwards supporters are moving to Barack, explaining his rise.
  • SUSA has better news for Clinton who is still ahead 51% to 39%. That is due to a massive edge among women, whom she leads 60% to 31%; Obama is ahead 50% to 40% among men, creating a 39% gender gap!
  • Among Republicans, McCain is up 48% to 25% for Romney and 9% for Huckabee.

Let’s move next door to New York, where Clinton’s lead is not as big as it once was:

  • SUSA has Clinton ahead 54% to 38%. 3 weeks ago, Obama was trailing 56% to 29% and while he is far from victory that bump means many many extra delegates.
  • Among the GOP, McCain is ahead 55% to 21% against Mitt Romney, seemingly benefiting from the support of former Rudy backers.

And that gets us to the tightest race of the region, Connecticut, where two polls paint two very different pictures:

  • SUSA came out with a truly shocking poll that shows Obama ahead 48% to 44% amidst a 30% gender gap. This poll conforms to a Rasmussen survey from a few days ago that had the pair tied at 40%.
  • Among Republicans, SUSA shows an unshakable McCain, up 53% to 31% on Romney.
  • ARG is more generous to Clinton, showing her ahead 48% to 35%. It agrees in McCain’s lead, 43% to 25%. ARG’s track-record over the past month is not particularly successful, so keep that in mind.

These numbers are very significant. On the GOP side, all three of these states are winner-take-all. Formerly Giuliani strongholds, they are now assured to go for McCain which means that he will get all of the delegates that are awarded in New York, Connecticut and New Jersey, 183 total! That will by itself guarantee that he will come out with a massive advantage over Romney who will be completely shut out.

Among Democrats, the Tri-State area is Clinton’s base, her backyard. Any Obama victory in one of those 3 states would generate awful press for Clinton and would bode well for Obama. Furthermore, Clinton was hoping to bury Obama with a delegate lead out of these three states and it looks like that will not happen. New York especially has 281 delegates at stake, and if Obama is keeping it this close statewide it means he will also win some congressional districts and be very close in others, denying Clinton an advantage in delegate out of her home-state.

And that gets us to Obama’s home state of Illinois, where a new poll from ARG shows Obama ahead 51% to 40% in his home-state. A Rasmussen poll this morning had him up at 60%, so both of today’s ARG polls have Clinton higher than she is in other polls. There is no question that holding the race close here would give Clinton an unexpectedly high number of delegates. McCain is up 48% to 34% in the GOP race.

Finally, the last poll comes to us from one of the tightest battlegrounds we have on Super Tuesday, Missouri. SUSA came out with a poll that has both races very tight.

  • Among Democrats, Clinton is up 48% to 44%, in a 40% gender gap (+22 among women, -18 among men). Another gap here is between registered Democrats (who go for Clinton by 11%) and independents (who prefer Obama by 20%).
  • Among Republicans, McCain is ahead 34% to Romney’s 30% and Huckabee’s 28%, though he runs third among self-identified conservatives. This is the only state polled today that does not have McCain up big, for those keeping track of that.

Obama has long placed Missouri at the center of his Super Tuesday strategy, since he wants to make the argument that Clinton is having trouble winning away from the coasts.



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    Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

    Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55
  • All good things must come to an end

  • Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

    Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55
  • What remains on the table

  • Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

    Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55
  • Confusion in Connecticut (Updated)

  • Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

    Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55
  • Results thread, part 2: Dems suffer staggering losses in House and legislatives races, limit damage in statewide races

  • Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

    Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55
  • Election Night results thread: Rep. Boucher’s fall first surprise of the night

  • Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

    Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55
  • Election night cheat sheet

  • Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

    Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55
  • Final ratings: Democrats brace for historic losses

  • Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

    Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55
  • What to watch for down-ballot

Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

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