McCain crushes Obama in AZ, leads in FL and gains in MA (Update with new Zogby national)

August 4, 2008

Update: The plot thickens and polls continue to show whatever national advantage Obama had to be fading. After nearly three months without a single national poll showing him ahead, McCain led in last week’s USA Today/Gallup poll, Rasmussen’s tracking this morning and he now gains 11% in Zogby’s national poll, 42% to Obama’s 41% with 2% each for Bob Barr and Ralph Nader. (Last month, Obama led by 10%; 5% in June and 10% in May). Zogby finds Obama slipping among all demographic groups, including independents, Democrats (Obama is at a weak 74%) and women.

Zogby’s previous poll was released at a time many polls showed a mid-to-high single digit lead for Obama - leading to talk that Obama could build a solid advantage by the end of the summer. Now, the race looks to be as tight as it’s been since June 3rd. Is the Obama camp not letting its opponents’ attacks dictate the conversation, and is this not the point at which the Obama camp finally starts using footage like McCain’s “bomb Iran?” Of course, the campaign might be preparing to unveil its vice-presidential pick (perhaps Wednesday morning in Indiana…) and does not want to muddy its message.

Original post: After a first polling delivery this morning - which included McCain’s first (albeit statistically insignificant) lead in a tracking poll since Obama clinched his party’s nomination - here is a second daily update. It contains strong numbers for John McCain, and it is difficult to not have the impression that polls over the past week or two have found consistently improving state results for the Arizona Senator - look at the 7 Quinnipiac polls from swing states released in two different installments, all finding McCain improving from his June results.

None of the results listed here qualifies as bad news for Obama. The two candidates are exchanging leads in Florida, Obama certainly does not need Arizona and the Rasmussen tracking from this morning was just one national poll in dozens that have shown Obama ahead. But to Democrats who have gotten used to good presidential polling over the past few months and certainly over the past few weeks, the psychological pressure can certainly mount. Overall, these polls certainly do not suggest that Obama has lost his edge, but they do point to the fact that the presidential race is a close one and there is enough polling data to back those who say that it is quickly tightening.

August will not be decisive, and any post-Labor Day news and poll is hugely more important than anything that will happen now; but the summer often sets the tone for the fall, and with the Olympic-period lull starting in four days, it does look like we will be going into the conventions without either candidate having opened a significant lead.

On to the afternoon’s state polls:

[I am not one to look for sample problems in every poll that is released, but do note that the partisan breakdown is 43% Republican and 38% Democratic. That's an improvement for the GOP over 2004, despite the fact that most polls find a significant swing leftward and the fact that Florida Democrats have made significant registration gains. In the previous SUSA poll from Florida, Democrats had a 9% edge in the sample; the latest PPP poll had as many Democrats and Republicans and the latest ARG poll had a 5% Democratic advantage. This is not to say that SUSA's poll is wrong - I don't like cherry-picking polls, and a lot of problems have problems like this. But I am just pointing out something we should take into account when interpreting the results.]

  • In Arizona, the second poll of the day confirms that McCain has less to fear than some Republicans feared. He is leading 52% to 36% (up from 9% last month) in Rasmussen’s latest poll, 57% to 38% with leaners. Obama’s favorability rating is dismal: 43% to 55%.
  • In Massachusetts, Obama’s margin of victory plunges from 23% to 9% in the latest Suffolk poll as Obama is now ahead 47% to 38%.
  • In Connecticut, Obama leads 51% to 36%. His favorability rating is 61%, comparing to 41% for McCain.
  • In Alabama, finally, McCain crushes Obama 55% to 37%, 58% to 38% with leaners.

With two polls in one day finding McCain with very solid leads in his home state, talk of Arizona emerging as a potential battleground state should be tabled. Unless other evidence emerges to challenge these surveys, it is simply too unlikely that any candidate will lose his home state - particularly a Republican in red-leaning Arizona. Gore lost Tennessee, sure, but he also lost the rest of the South.

As for Massachusetts, longtime readers of this blog know that I have long expressed amazement at how poor Obama’s numbers have been in the Bay State. Obama struggled to open any lead at all against McCain for a while in the spring, and McCain tied him repeatedly in SUSA polls. Other polling groups found Obama significantly under-performing compared to Clinton. Polls released since Obama clinched the nomination - including Suffolk’s previous survey - found Obama rising in one of the bluest states of the country, and they better hope McCain’s gains in this poll are only statistical noise. As for Connecticut, this is a Northeastern state McCain was interested in contesting but polls have shown little opening for him, leading me to move the state to the safe Obama column in early July.

Meanwhile, two Senate polls were released from races that are at best third-tier:

  • In Oklahoma, GOP Sen. Inhofe leads state Senator Andrew Rice 52% to 30% in the latest Sooner poll. In the institute’s previous poll, Inhofe led 60% to 19%.
  • In Alabama, Senator Jeff Sessions crushes Vivian Davis Figures 58% to 31%, a 3% improvement since last month.

There is nothing to see in the Alabama Senate race, which has always been ranked as safe Republican in my Senate rankings. Some Democrats believe there is some potential for Andrew Rice in Oklahoma, and the DSCC did send a few paid staffers to the state a few years ago, hinting that it took such talk seriously. Yet, and though he is no beloved incumbent, Inhofe presents no obvious vulnerability and Oklahoma looks to be as red a state as any. The latest presidential poll found McCain leading by 32%, and that’s not the kind of margin a Democratic Senate challenger can easily overcome. The race is ranked 18th in my latest ratings, and it is clearly closer to the safe column than to the competitive one.

5 Comments | AL-Sen, AZ-Pres, CT-Pres, FL-Pres, MA-Pres, Nat-Poll, OK-Sen | Permalink
Posted by Taniel

Monday polls: McCain still ahead in Florida but loses Virginia

June 30, 2008

The day’s most significant presidential polls came from two red state targeted by Barack Obama. And as has been the norm for the past few months, Virginia continues to look like a better pick-up opportunity for the Democratic candidate than the good old swing state of Florida:

  • Rasmussen released its second Florida poll in 8 days and finds little change, with McCain ahead 48% to 41%. He led by 8% two weeks ago.
  • The favorabiliry ratings tell a worse story for Obama, as his favorability rating is down at 44% (57% for McCain) — with 40% viewing him very unfavorably (versus 18% for McCain)!
  • In Virginia, however, Obama is ahead 49% to 47% in the latest SUSA poll. That is actually a 7% drop from the May poll - but it conforms to the most recent polls from PPP and Rasmussen.
  • Obama’s lead is sustained by the partisan breakdown: 43% to 31% in favor of Democrats, a 17% swing compared to the 2004 exit polls (39% GOP-35% Dem).

SUSA’s swing in partisan breakdown is sometimes bigger than other groups find, though it does conform to the latest Newsweek or LA Times polls and it matches expectations as to the electorate’s transformations in the past four years, so that it remains a credible finding. However, I am not sure what to think of Rasmussen showing such astronomically high “very unfavorable” ratings in so many states. Other polls have not shown such a large discrepancy in the two candidates’ favorability rating.

Besides this methodological note, neither of these polls is surprising. Despite two unexpected surveys two weeks ago showing Obama gaining in Florida, most of the polls taken in the Sunshine state have shown that this is a rare swing state in which McCain seems more secure than Bush was in 2004 and 2000. On the other hand, poll after poll confirms that Virginia is at the top of Obama’s pick-up list. McCain will need to flex his military muscle with the state’s veteran population to overcome the rapid Democratic gains in NoVa, and his road would be tougher if Obama selects one of the Virginia boys (Webb, Warner, Kaine) as his running-mate.

Three other polls were released from safer states:

  • In Alabama, Rasmussen finds McCain losing ground but still comfortably ahead, 51% to 36% (he led by 28% last month).
  • Here again, Obama has a strikingly high “very unfavorable” number (37%) — though this is more expected given the state’s racial polarization. His favorabily rating is 40%, whereas 67% have a favorable view of McCain.
  • In Massachusetts, SUSA released its first poll finding Obama ahead (finally) by double-digits. He was ahead by 5% in the last poll, but now leads 53% to 40%.
  • This comes entirely from the partisan breakdown (40% dem, 17% GOP), but Obama remains weak among his party: 76%.
  • Finally, Obama has not yet put Georgia in play but the state is at the threshold of competitivity: McCain maintains a 10% lead in Rasmussen’s latest poll (53% to 43%), just like last month.
  • McCain maintains an edge in favorability: 60% versus 47% for Obama (and 34% very unfavorable).

Longtime readers of this blog know I have long been puzzled by Obama’s numbers in Massachusetts, where numerous polling instutes showed him struggling and polling significantly weaker numbers than Clinton. But no poll was more severe for Obama than SUSA’s, as survey after survey showed him in a toss-up with McCain in what is arguably the most Democratic state in the country. A few polls have shown Obama creating some distance here, and while 13% remains strangely small in such a blue state, it is certainly an improvement. It remains difficult to imagine how Massachusetts could be anywhere near the list of competitive states in the fall, but we will keep an eye on poll trendlines.

Finally, two Senate polls were released by Rasmussen confirming what we already know — Alabma and Georgia are unlikely to join the list of competitive races:

  • In Georgia, Saxby Chambliss leads his 5 opponents by margins ranging from 13% (against Jim Martin) to 27%. He is above 50% in all match-ups.
  • In Alabama, Sen. Sessions leads Vivan Figures 58% to 34% — an improvement of 9% by the Democrat but this remains a third-to-fourth tier race.

Note that Democrats were really interested to challenging Chambliss after the nastiness of the 2002 race, but a strong challenger never emerged. 

No Comments » | AL-Pres, AL-Sen, FL-Pres, GA-Pres, GA-Sen, MA-Pres, VA-Pres | Permalink
Posted by Taniel

Senate: Mississippi battleground and Franken troubles

May 30, 2008

If Democrats end up losing the Senate race in Mississippi, they can blame the Mississippi Supreme Court’s unfair decision to allow Governor Barbour to not call a March special election to replace Trent Lott. Indeed, while the state remains staunchly Republican, last month’s special election in MS-01 confirmed that the GOP will need the increased turnout of a presidential election to resolve the enthusiasm gap. Furthermore, former Governor Ronnie Musgrove is almost polling like an incumbent right now. He is better-known than newly-appointed Senator Wicker, a rare situation for a challenger to be in.

Rasmussen’s new Senate polls from the two Mississippi races confirms that the Musgrove-Wicker showdown will be one of the top contests this cycle, and one that could actually get Democrats close to a 60 seat majority:

  • Musgrove edges out Wicker 47% to 46%. Both men have a 49% favorability rating, while 18% are not sure of their impression of Wicker (versus only 9% for Musgrove).
  • In the state’s other Senate race, Senator Cochran is crushing challenger Erik Fleming 58% to 35%, as expected.
  • Note that in Rasmussen’s poll of the Alabama Senate race, there are also no surprises as GOP Senator Sessions crushes Vivian Figures 62% to 29%.

Cochran seat was long watched as there were mounting rumors that the longtime Senator might retire, but it is Trent Lott that unexpectedly jumped out, making the special election for his seat the more interesting ones and essentially giving Cochran a free pass.

Meanwhile, Al Franken continues to be in trouble in the Minnesota Senate race continues. After the controversy over Franken’s tax return that the GOP is already looking to exploit mercilessly in the months ahead, it is now Franken’s past writings that are coming back to haunt him as an essay Franken wrote in Playboy in 2000 has now been unearthed. Democratic congressmen are now openly worrying that Franken could drag them down because of past writings from his satirical/comical days. Rep. Betty McCollum is now criticizing the essay as “indefensible” and “pornographic,” worried that it will hurt the state’s entire Democratic slate. Explaining that her phone is ringing “off the hook,” McCollum revealed that she was not sure whether she would support Franken in the general election!

The Politico quotes a Democratic operative as saying that, “We’re looking at having these pornographic writings tagged onto Democrats. That doesn’t seem to be a good strategy to expand our majorities in the House.” Ouch. This is certainly not enough to sink Franken’s candidacy — after all, Minnesota did elect Jesse Ventura in the 1990s and Jim Webb survived revelations about graphic writings in Virginia in 2006 — but given that his main challenge is to demonstrate that he is a “serious” candidate, Porn-O-Rama is strengthening doubts that were already lingering about the Democrat.

After a year of admiring articles praising him for a successful transition from comic to politician, the tide appears to have turned. Yet, the DFL’s convention is in a month, and it is difficult to see how Franken could not be chosen ever since rival Mike Ciresi abruptly dropped out of the race. Also, it is important to keep things in perspective: Despite the increasing criticism Franken is facing, he is holding his own in polls. The latest survey found him trailing by only 2%.

Update: Late-night Senate news from Texas in the form of a poll.

  • GOP firm Baselice & Associates finds Senator Cornyn leading Rick Noriega 49% to 34%.

While the incumbent is under 50%, that is a much more reassuring margin than the back-to-back 47% to 43% leads he posted in Rasmussen and Research 2000 earlier in May. Despite those numbers, I had left the race in 12th position in my latest Senate rankings to reflect the enormity of the task that lies ahead of Noriega. He must not only rely on an environment that is toxic to Republicans but soften up Cornyn much more than he is now to score what would be a big upset.

No Comments » | AL-Sen, MN-Sen, MS-Sen, TX-Sen | Permalink
Posted by Taniel

Senate diary: Schumer sets the stage, polls confirm

April 9, 2008

Chuck Schumer, the chairman of the DSCC, briefed reporters yesterday about his party’s chances in the various competitive seats. There were very little surprises, with most states falling where we expect them to and roughly where they are ranked in my Senate rankings, except for two seats: Schumer described Alaska as a “top target,” the group of seat made up of VA, NH, NM and CO in which Schumer said the Democrats are ahead. While polls are showing Sen. Stevens to be in huge trouble, Alaska is still near unanimously described as at best a toss-up given how structurally Republican the state is.

The second surprise is that Schumer rated Mississippi’s Senate race with “red-state seats in striking range” (with the company of for now not very competitive NC and KY) rather than with what he described as the “second tier” (made up of OR, ME and MN). A recent poll showed Democrat Musgrave leading the incumbent Republican in Mississippi, after all, while Democrats are having trouble putting Oregon and Maine truly in play. The chairman of the DSCC is expected to spin races as more competitive than they could believably be, but his downrating them is more surprising; does it suggest he has seen numbers we don’t have access to?

Meanwhile, a few polls released over the past 2 days confirm our impression of various races:

  • In the most interesting of these three surveys, Rasmussen shows Senator Collins of Maine is crushing her Democratic challenger 54% to 38%.
  • Her favorability rating stands at a very impressive 72%, making Allen’s 59% look weak in comparison.
  • In Tennessee, incumbent Lamar Alexander is not trembling against two potential opponents, coming in with 58% and 59% depending on the match-up.
  • In Alabama, Senator Sessions is showing no sign of vulnerability, leading Democrat Vivian Davis Figures 58% to 36% and posting a 72% favorability rating also.

Neither TN nor AL are attracting anyone’s attention; Schumer didn’t even list them on as sleepers, outsider races (a list that includes TX [fair enough], OK, and less convincing ID, NE, KS and… GA).

Maine, of course, is a much more interesting case. Democrats were very excited about recruiting Allen and were confident they would be able do to Collins what they did to Chafee in 2006; a fairly popular incumbent, Chafee could not hold on as a Republican in an overwhelmingly Democratic state in an overwhelmingly Democratic year. But Collins has proved much more resistant: Maine is not Rhode Island and the high favorability rating she enjoys will make it very difficult for Democrats to convince voters that she was a blind surrogate of the Bush Administration. A 54% to 38% margin is actually much smaller than what we are used to seeing in Maine… which is saying a lot about how difficult the race has been for Allen so far.

Finally, a quick note on the Oregon Senate race about which Democrats were initially as excited as about Maine’s, but failed to recruit their top-tier potential candidates. They then touted the candidacy of Oregon House Speaker Jeff Merkley. But the DSCC’s preferred candidate is facing a competitive primary and — 6 weeks from the May 20th primary — he is coming in third in a SUSA poll released Monday, behind attorney Steve Novick who has been running hard for months. It’s worth noting that in both public polls of the race so far Novick runs stronger than Merkley does, so this is not to say that Democrats are shooting themselves in the foot. But the DSCC is known for sometimes giving up on a seat if the candidate they see as the most competitive fails to make it through the primary.

In non-senatorial news, finally, SUSA released a poll from Washington’s governor races, confirming that the race is as consistent a toss-up as it possibly could be since it is picking up exactly where we left off four years ago. Christine Gregoire is edging out Dino Rossi by a statistically insignificant 48% to 47%.

4 Comments | AL-Sen, ME-Sen, TN-Sen, WA-Gov | Permalink
Posted by Taniel