Campaign Diaries

As expected, Pennsylvania Governor Ed Rendell called the special election to fill Jack Murtha’s district on May 18th, a day you should mark on your calendars since it will also bring us the resolution to the hotly disputed Specter-Sestak, Mongiardo-Conway, Grayson-Paul and Kitzhaber-Bradbury races, as well as the first round of the Arkansas primary, which will shrink the number of Blanche Lincoln’s Republican challengers from 8 to 2. (It would also be the day Blanche Lincoln would have to fight off Bill Halter if the Lieutenant Governor ever took the plunge, though you should not hold your breath on that. Rumors were once again swirling last week that Halter was on the verge of jumping in the race, but the buzz has died down with no discernible movement.)

I explained last week the two main consequences of PA-12’s election being held on May 18th. First, it should prove a big help to Democrats since whoever emerges as their nominee will be able to rely on the turnout machines of the many candidates running in the party’s hotly contested senatorial and gubernatorial primaries; voters who come out to vote for Sestak or Onorato will also be likely to vote for the House race. The Republican nominee, meanwhile, will be all on his own since the GOP’s statewide primaries are uncompetitive. Second, it could create a confusing situation in which the candidates designated by party committees might have to fight simultaneous battles: one in the special election against the other party’s nominee for the right to represent the district until the end of 2010, another in the regularly scheduled primary for the right to be their party’s nominee again on the November ballot.

Yet, it looks like this latter scenario might not be as big of a factor as expected because PA-12 could emerge as a repeat of LA-3: Local politicians might be reluctant to give up their current office because they are fearful that the district will be eliminated in the next round of redistricting (Pennsylvania will probably lose a seat), which the Philadelphia Inquirer is today reporting is very much a possibility.

Even if a district resembling this PA-12 still exists come 2011, it is likely to look very different since the current district was apparently drawn specifically with Rep. John Murtha in mind. As such, we at the very least cannot know what the district’s exact boundaries will look like, nor even who will control the redistricting process.

When a district has to be eliminated, redistricting often targets the most junior lawmakers, which explains why whoever wins LA-3 is likely to be in big trouble come 2011-2012. Yet, Pennsylvania is likely to have many freshmen in the next Congress since the GOP is mounting strong challenges in no less than 7 districts (PA-3, PA-4, PA-7, PA-8, PA-10, PA-11, PA-17) while Democrats have a shot at capturing PA-06 and PA-15. This makes for a striking stat: 10 of the state’s 19 districts are hosting highly competitive races this year, which makes it highly likely PA-12’s new representative will not be the only junior congressman lacking the clout to ensure his or her district is protected. On the other hand, the possibility of many turnovers make it easy to imagine the congressional map looking very different from what it is today.

Adding to the uncertainty is that we do not know who will control the redistricting process. While the GOP is certain to have a voice in the process since the state Senate is firmly in their control, the Governor’s Mansion and the state House are up for grabs. While Democrats control both at the moment, Republicans have at least an even shot of holding all three levels of power come 2011 (Tom Corbett looks like the front-runner in the gubernatorial race and Democrats’ 104-98 House majority could easily be toppled if the November electorate favors the GOP). The map will look very differently if Republicans take control of redistricting or if Democrats can have a voice in the process, thus forcing a fairer map than the GOP gerrymander that was drawn in 2001.

Add it all together, and it hardly becomes surprising that candidates haven’t been rushing to hint at their interest for an election that is less than three months away.

In fact, the politician who was considered Murtha’s most likely successor in the first wave of stories following the congressman’s death just announced he would not run: state Senator John Wozniak’s decision is all the more surprising that he could have tried his luck without giving up his seat in case of a loss, since his term isn’t up until 2012. (Of course, he couldn’t go back to the state legislature if redistricting forced him out of Congress.) This is somewhat of a blow for Democrats, as the 14-year senator looked like the candidate with the most local experience.

Yet, another Democrat announced that she wanted the party’s nomination, and she has as credible a profile as you can think of: Barbara Hafer served as a commissioner in Allegheny County before winning numerous statewide elections, first as Auditor General and then as Treasurer. The twist: She won all of these campaigns as a Republican. She switched parties in 2002, after winning her second term as Treasurer and 12 years after being the GOP’s gubernatorial nominee against incumbent Bob Casey! Hafer considered challenging Senator Santorum in 2006, but she did not jump in so my understanding is that she has never ran for anything as a Democrat. Is that someone party officials are going to be comfortable choosing as their nominee?

The answer might very well depend on whether other candidates express interest. With Wozniak’s exit, other local politicians might take the possibility more seriously, for instance state Rep. Bryan Barbin, state Rep. Tad Harhai, state Rep. Rick Geist, former Lieutenant Governor Mark Singel and Westmoreland County Commissioner Tom Ceraso. The wild card: There is a lot of speculation that the deceased congressman’s widow Joyce Murtha might want to run for the seat. Despite how ridiculous such familial hand-overs tend to be, it would take a surprise if the party denied her the nod given the many precedents in which this has happened (Bono Mack in California, for instance).

While I do not know Joyce Murtha’s exact age, she married her husband back in 1955 so she has to be at least 73-75. For Democrats to nominate her would probably signal they are indeed expecting this district to be so disfigured come 2011 that it is not worth thinking about holding it long-term. One reason this is foolish: a Democratic incumbent could have a shot at surviving even if he is thrown into a incumbent-against-incumbent battle against a Republican in a district that would seem to favor the latter. Depending on how it is done, combining PA-12 and PA-9 could for instance result in a GOP-friendly but district that is nonetheless winnable for a Democrat in favorable circumstances, one of which could be the candidacy of someone who already represents the district.

Interestingly, there is far less at the moment about potential Republican candidates, which can either mean that the GOP thinks it does not have enough of a bench to find an upgrade over the current two candidates (Tim Burns and William Russell), that Republicans are waiting to see how the Democratic field shakes up or that the party doesn’t plan a full push to win the seat for the reasons I’ve already outlined.