The retirement of a fourth Democratic congressman in as many week set the tone for the past week, with Republicans beaming with excitement at the prospect of contesting red-leaning open seats and the press piling on with panic-inducing stories. The DCCC countered by getting numerous incumbents to signal more or less directly that they’ll run for re-election - Chet Edwards, Collin Peterson, Ike Skelton. But the process revealed we should be keeping an eye on Rep. Spratt; we also learned late this week that Rep. Jack Murtha has been asking DCCC officials what he should do if he retires, so yet another veteran Democrat joins the retirement watch. In lower-profile stories:
In Delaware, Beau Biden has still not entered the Senate race - and Democrats finally seem to be getting the clue that he never actually committed to running. That’s sparking talk of what might happen if the Attorney General did the unthinkable and passed on the opportunity to run for his father’s seat, and whether Democrats would have a chance of beating Mike Castle. Two names that were circulated by CQ: New Castle County Exec Chris Coons and Senator Ted Kaufman, who could run for a full term.
In Kansas, Democrats have lost the one statewide candidate they had: Tom Wiggans, who enthused the state party last month by the mere fact that he was willing to jump in the Governor’s race, has now announced he is dropping out of the contest. It’s been a long time Democrats have lost any illusion they might defend the governorship or pick-up the Senate seat, but the extent of their weakness remains a remarkable story - as does Kathleen Sebelius’s failure at building a credible state party. Also, this could have major consequences down-ballot: The asymmetry between their lack of a statewide candidate and the Republican juggernauts who are running could be fatal to their chances in the state’s crucial House races (KS-03, and perhaps KS-02).
In New York, Kirsten Gillibrand rid herself of yet another opponent: Suffolk County legislator Jon Cooper, one of the earliest Democrats to float his name last spring, said he would not run for Senate. For all the recent talk of Gillibrand looking vulnerable, the only person from either party who has been willing to commit to challenging her is labor activist Jonathan Tasini. While Bill Thompson has yet to announce his intentions, the very long list of politicians who held back after looking on the brink of running speaks to how difficult a commitment it is to challenge a well-financed incumbent in this large and expensive a state.
In Oregon, former NBA player Chris Dudley made it official this week: He will seek the GOP’s gubernatorial nomination. Like all political novices, Dudley will have to prove himself on the trail but he at least starts with more of a network than most athletes-turned-candidates since others in his family have held prominent office. He’ll face a tough primary against entrepreneur Allen Alley, who has a lot of funds and the experience of running a statewide campaign. Either men would face an uphill climb in the general election; perhaps the celebrity factor is Republicans’ best bet, however?
As always, I list all the changes I have logged in during the week to the “retirement watch” and recruitment pages. Written in red are those politicians who announced their definite plans rather than simply expressed interest or stroke speculation. First, updates to Retirement Watch:
| Will retire | Rep. Bart Gordon (D, TN-06) |
| Will not retire | Rep. Chet Edwards (D, TX-17) Rep. Collin Peterson (D, MN-07) |
| Added to retirement list | Rep. Jack Murtha (D, PA-12) |
| Those who apparently will not retire | Rep. Tim Holden (D, PA-17) Rep. Ike Skelton (D, MO-04) Rep. Lincoln Davis (D, TN-04) |
Second, updates to the Senate recruitment page:
| AR-Sen, GOP | Stanley Reed dropped out |
| CA-Sen, GOP | former Rep. Tom Campbell added |
| DE-Sen, Dem | New Castle County Exec Chris Coons added Senator Ted Kaufman added |
| NY-Sen, Dem | Suffolk Co. Legislator Jon Cooper will not run |
Third, updates to gubernatorial races:
| KS-Gov, Dem | Tom Wiggans dropped out |
| OR-Gov, GOP | Former NBA player Chris Dudley announced run state House minority leader Bruce Hanna won’t run |
| SD-Gov, GOP | Ken Knuppe is running |
| TX-Gov, Dem | Kinky Friedman dropped out |
Why are you doing the weekly update now and not Sunday? Are you leaving for Christmas early next week?
In DE if Biden doesn’t go into the race then Democratic chances would decrease significantly. Democrats are going to ensure he gets a credible challanger tho as letting Castle get a free walk would be disastrious considering that he hasn’t had a competive election in more than a decade.
Nobody but Biden beats Castle. I don’t even think the D’s will bother to spend money on the race if Biden doesn’t run.
I’ve predicted it before: Biden waits till ‘14. He’ll only be 44 and won’t lose.
I can’t figure out what Bill Thompson is waiting for. If he waits too long, the bloom will be off the flower. He’s got his chance now. He should run. He’d deck Gillibrand in the primary and as of yet, there is no general to speak of. Sure, he might lose if Giuliani gets in, but that’s looking less and less likely. Why not go for the kill?
The only thing I can think is that Chuck Schumer really likes Gillibrand and has basically threatened anybody who might run against her. That’s the one and only thing that can explain nobody being willing to take her on.
Make what you want of it but Chris Cillizza, who was initially as skeptical as you Taniel about Biden’s willingness to run, wrote yesterday that the AG is puting in place a campaign organization and the Republicans who think that he will take a pass are “hoping against hope”.
Perhaps Biden is waiting to give Castle the “opportunity” to vote against healthcare reform, which he would be more likely to do if he thinks Biden is leaning against running. If for some reason Biden doesn’t run, perhaps former lt. gov. Carney will jump over from the House race, although he seems headed for an incredibly easy time in his House race and could also bide his time until 2014, when he will have 6 years as a congressman under his belt vs. whatever Biden decides to do between now and 2014. (V.P. Biden will most likely be on the wane by 2014, although still able to help his son, of course.)
As far as New York, the White House and Sen. Schumer cleared the field for Gillibrand. However, she has to run again in 2012, for a full term. (She is running for the remainder of Hillary’s term.) Even if she skates by this time, I wonder if her potential opponents will be as easily dissuaded next time around. It does take a ton of money to run for a Senate seat in New York. It would seem as though any downstate member of Congress, (18 are from downstate) could easily have a stronger base than she has, given her small upstate base. Now would be the best time though, 2 more years of her in office makes her a little more difficult to beat. It is sad that she is so weak that she can’t make it on her own. Schumer certainly did it on his own. He served 18 years in the House before running against former Sen. D’Amato in 1998. I would be impressed with Thompson if he has the guts to take on the powers that be. He might rub a few of the big shots the wrong way, but once in office, they will all have to work together anyway, certainly him and Schumer as US Senators.
Jaxx, I published it on Saturday because I haven’t had much time these days; I thought I’d do the weekly update on Saturday since it takes me less time so I can have time to write a normal-length post today. Also, I will be on Monday (so that will mean slow posting again), but it should be alright after that.
I think Democrats are kidding themselves if they believe that Beau Biden will automatically win the Delaware seat over Castle. Truth of the matter is that the seat is a tossup, with the smallest of leans to Castle.
Anon (aka Cliff) I don`t know many Democrats who are “kidding” them selves that Biden is a dead cert to win in the GE. All I have heard is people say he would give Castle a good fight and may have a small edge.
Stop tilting at strawmen.
Alison, I don’t think the ‘anon’ was Cliff (though he obviously can speak for himself). I agree with you that I doubt anyone who reads this blog thinks Biden is certain to beat Castle.
Taniel, thanks. Just I know that sometimes when you type a post Anon can come up. Since the subject of the post was essentially Democrats are dumb I lept, perhaps unfairly, to the conclusion it was Cliff. However I am glad you agree with the substance of my previous post.
It was not me, no idea who it was. I know few, if any, Democrats who think Biden is a shoe-in if he runs. It will be one of the premiere races in the country between two titans, either person could win.