In search for any polling news they can hang on to, Democrats can take solace in Rasmussen’s poll of the Ohio Senate race. Rob Portman does lead Lee Fisher 38% to 36%, but at a time so many incumbents (Chris Dodd, Blanche Lincoln, Harry Reid) are trailing by widening margins, Ohio’s Lieutenant Governor is at least staying competitive.
Of course, that’s nothing for the DSCC to boast about. Portman trailed by wide margins for much of the year, grabbing his first very lead in late September; as such, these numbers find that shifting national environment is impacting Democrats’ Ohio prospects as much as those of any other state. That’s all the more clear when we consider Portman’s standing against Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner: His 40% to 33% lead is the largest he has posted in any survey this year.
But the point remains that Democratic candidates are managing to stay afloat in the GOP-held open seats they’re hoping to contest (this also goes for Robin Carnahan in Missouri and for Jack Conway in Kentucky). This certainly suggests that evidence that the electorate’s mood is first and foremost anti-incumbent, and that in some cases Democrats might be better off dealing with open seats than in protecting their senators - this is obviously aimed at Chris Dodd, but also perhaps at Blanche Lincoln as I’m certainly open to the argument that Brian Halter would have an easier time winning the general election.
Rasmussen’s poll of Pennsylvania’s Senate race would seem to dispute that hypothesis: Republican Pat Toomey leads Senator Arlen Specter and Rep. Joe Sestak by comparable margins, respectively 46-42 and 44-38. That’s all the more a blow to Sestak’s arguments that he’d have an easier time winning the general election given that Rasmussen’s October poll had Sestak in a substantially stronger position than the incumbent (he led by 1%, whereas Specter trailed by 5%). Yet, it goes without saying that such an analysis is deeply flawed.
For a 5-term senator to be stuck at 42% - not to mention to be trailing a lesser-known opponent - if far more problematic than Sestak’s deficit. Specter is universally known, and it will be very tough for him to convince voters who are unwilling to back him that he should have another term. (Corzine’s decisive is the most recent example of the fact that an incumbent rarely climbs out of such low levels of support.) Sestak has more room to grow as few voters have a firm impression of him. That said, there’s no question that PA continues to look like a far better takeover opportunity for the GOP than was anticipated last spring - though I claim some credit in pointing out early that Democrats could come to regret accepting the senator with open arms.
In the Democratic primary, Specter leads Sestak 48% to 35%. While the poll is being covered as great news for the senator because Rasmussen’s October poll had a 46% to 42% margin (reading The Hill’s analysis of Sestak’s “staggering” drop, you would think the bottom has fallen out for the challenger), that remains a very respectable showing for the House member given the name recognition difference and the fact that the campaign has many more months to heat up. That said, Specter has to be reassured that anti-incumbent sentiment is not extending to the Democratic electorate; his favorability rating is very strong among his new party’s base, which renders it difficult for Sestak to get traction.
Yet, the week’s most stunning evidence of Democratic incumbents’ fall from grace is not Specter’s trailing or the 13% deficit Dodd face in a poll released earlier this week (we have gotten used to seeing such results) but rather the collapse of Ted Strickland’s numbers in the gubernatorial half of Rasmussen’s Ohio poll: Despite an approval rating that isn’t dismal (48-50), Strickland trails Republican challenger John Kasich 48% to 39% - a massive margin that confirms sitting Governors will be in a very tough spot next year.
That the poll was released by Rasmussen might lead many to dismiss the results, but there is no denying that Strickland’s situation is worsening. Not only is the trendline negative (in September, Rasmussen released the very first poll finding Kasich ahead - and that was only by 1%), but Quinnipiac confirms that Kasich gaining: Their latest poll, released in early November, had a tie at 40%. Given that Republicans are already slightly favored to pick-up Iowa and Michigan’s governorships, Democrats will have to fight to keep a foothold in the Midwest.
A major reason why Rasmussen is more pro-GOP than most other pollsters is probably because of its very strict likely voter model, and GOP voters are more likely vote. I also believe that Rasmussen is automated while other pollsters are live, so that could also be a reason.
In terms of the Rasmussen results, in Ohio I guess it is good news that Fischer is ahead, but I think this is even worse news for Brunner, who has had alot of fundraising problems. If she is doing considerly poorer than Fischer against Portman, then it damages her arguments that she ought to stay in the primary. I seriously doubt that with her weak poll numbers and her weak fundraising that she will stay in the race all the way to primary day, but I’m not sure if she would then go off and run for reelection as secretary of state as many Democrats want her too.
In PA, Toomey is really benfiting from the national enviroment and the fact that Sestak and Spectar are purely focused on each other for now. He doesn’t need to burnish his conservative creds now and can go straight to the general election voters by expressing himself as a moderate. I strongly suspect that after the primary in PA is over, Toomey’s numbers will drop drastically as Democrats pound on his conservative record. Of course, the case of Rick Santorm is an indication that a conservative Republican can slip by in this modest Democratic state so Toomey will at least stay competive regardless. I do believe that the Specter-Sestak race could very well be as close as Spectar’s primary against Toomey in 2004 as a Republican. However I’m not sure how much the Dem etablishment, including Obama, will really get behind him, unlike how Bush (and Santorum) were able to get Specter over the top in 2004. Also despite the numbers drop Sestak is still in a very competive position and unless both Obama and Gov. Ed Rendell go all out for Spectar, then Spectar could very well lose the primary.
The Ohio gubernentorial poll does seem like an oulier to me. I mean having almost 50/50 approval rating but losing by 9 points to an unknown. Doesnt make that much sense to me. Certainly the OH governorship wil be very competive but I seriously doubt that Kaisch starts with a large advantage at this point.
Jaxx - I would point out that Santorum’s conservative credentials also hurt him when he ran for re-election. So it cuts both ways. I agree Toomey is gaining from having the Dems fight it out and focus on each other.
Jaxx, btw:
PPP and SurveyUSA also use IVR (robopolls).
Interesting article here:
http://www.pollster.com/blogs/why_is_rasmussen_so_different.php
Guy, Santorum served two terms in the Senate, the first he benefited greatly from the strong GOP enviroment in 1994, and in 2000 he benefited from a weak Dem opponnet whom the the liberal base despised and refused to vote for. It was in 2006 that Democrats finally got a candidate that while liberals didn’t prefer, weren’t alienated either, and the 2006 thing helped.
One thing in Toomey’s favor is that he is more of an economic conservative than a social conservative (altho he is both) and therefore is at least marginally more of a fit for PA. Altho as I said I suspect his numbers would decrease once the Democrats unite behind single candidate. Sestak would be stronger because he has a bigger ceiling, but Specter isn’t as vulernable as several other Democrats in the Senate if he is able to become the nominee.