Comments on: Weekly 2010 update: As TX Dems land their candidate, NY Republicans wish they were so lucky

By: Guy

Guy — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 20:40:54 +0000

I agree with Cliff that Perry would win and Hutchinson would win easier against White.

However a 55-45 victory would underline the (demographic) changes happening, such that maybe in 2 cycles time (2018) you could get a very competitive situation. This is something the GOP has to think about as they formulate both the policy and tone for future campaigns.

By: Gerard

Gerard — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 08:07:29 +0000

I wonder how much animosity will be around in Texas, after the primary is over. I know there will still be plenty of time until the Fall election, but, it should be interesting. NY Times Sunday Magazine had a long piece, discussing Perry and Hutchison. It was all about their personalities, not so much on the issues. Perhaps that is the whole story anyway, 2 huge egos fighting it out.

By: Jaxx Raxor

Jaxx Raxor — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 07:55:39 +0000

Well its still hypothetical at this point, but Simmions would be the underdog against a generic Democrat. If Dodd stepped down and the attorny general Blumenthal took his place, then Simmions would be crushed, considereing the former’s immensive popularity in the state. If you all known, Blumenthal ruled out running against Dodd in a primary but entertained the notion of challanging Lieberman in 2012. If Dodd left an open seat then he could just take it easily. Another Democrat, ie one of the U.S. house members or someone from the state legislature would be favored against Simmions. I mean CT is a heavily Democratic state (not the MOST democratic but its still solid) and any Republican would have a very difficult time running against anyone not named Dodd.

Also on Texas, while White is an underdog his entry has certainly increased Texan Democratic enthusasim and against Perry at least White has a solid foundation to build upon as a moderate Democratic. Lets not forget Perry got only 39% of the vote in 2006 in a 6 way field, and many moderate Republicans who would vote for KBH in the general may be wary of doing so for Perry if he was to make out. Yes Texas has among the biggest amounts of tea party activists but they aren’t the whole of the party.

By: Cliff

Cliff — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 05:12:47 +0000

I agree that Simmons wouldn’t be favored against anybody but Dodd, but he wouldn’t be a lost cause against anybody. He won the 2nd most liberal district in the state 3 times, and only lost it, by 83 votes, in the worst year for Republicans in a midterm since ‘74.

By: Maurice

Maurice — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 02:38:04 +0000

Republicans may have a superior organization in Texas (though I would call Nebraska’s better), but Democrats can be assured of a more enthusastic turnout than in other places. If you know any Democrats from Texas, they’re raving mad at their state’s political situation. And hispanics sure don’t want four more years of Rick Perry. But you are definitely right that Hutchison would do better. But White sould win a Senate race.

On CT, you’re right about Simmons, though he wouldn’t be favored against anybody other than Dodd (and maybe Lowell Weicker or Bruce Morrison?).

By: Cliff

Cliff — Sun, 06 Dec 2009 23:48:58 +0000

I’m sorry, I Bill White’s decision is irrelevant. He cannot win statewide in Texas. While Texas might not be the most conservative state by the numbers, I realize there are a bunch of states that went harder for Bush/McCain and for their respective Republican Governors then Texas, there is NO state in the union where the D’s face stronger opposition of a monolithic block of voters that would walk over broken glass to keep them from office, nor is there any state in the union with a more well developed, disciplined and dedicated Republican party and grass roots operation.

Perry will merely beat White if he’s the nominee, probably with 54-56% of the vote. KBH, if she wins, will crush him in a 60-40 or better landslide.

I actually think Foley wouldn’t be a bad Governor’s nominee, although it’s at best a tossup for R’s and they are probably now a slight underdog. He might be better then the Lt. Governor. In any event, I think his switch helps assure that Linda McMahon can’t split the vote between several other candidates and win with a plurality. And anything that helps Rob Simmons win the primary helps Chris Dodd lose the general election. (BTW, Simmons is the only candidate who can win even if Dodd isn’t the nominee, which is unlikely but not impossible.)

By: Jaxx Raxor

Jaxx Raxor — Sun, 06 Dec 2009 22:29:32 +0000

In terms of New York, I just don’t think that Rudy likes the idea of being only one of 100 people in what is likely to be in the (minority) party. I also strongly suspect that polling that he has is strongly inflated as he has taken a much more hardline conservative positions since he was Mayor of New York, positions that would be hard to backtrack from in a liberal state like New York.

Really any other major recruiments will come from politicans retiring, and the number of Democrats who retire will be very interesting.