On Friday, Houston Mayor Bill White pulled the trigger: He dropped out of Texas’s nonexistent Senate contest and jumped in the gubernatorial race, giving Democrats an unexpected shot at winning a rare statewide victory. I chose not to write about his announcement since I already explained why it made sense for White to make the switch last week, when we first learned such a development was likely. Furthermore, White’s prospects largely depend on just how bloody the Republican primary gets and whether Rick Perry can pull out a victory.
On a related note: For those interested in the coming Perry-Hutchison bloodbath, Robert Draper’s (long) investigation into the primary’s dynamics in today’s New York Times Magazine is a very interesting read.
In New York, with every passing week in which Rudy Giuliani is not announcing his decision, it’s looking increasingly unlikely that he’ll end up running for Senate. The Daily News is now reporting that Giuliani signed up as a long-term security consultant for the 2016 Olympics, which makes it hard to believe he is even considering challenging Gillibrand at this point. That’s making the GOP look elsewhere. Two weeks after Larchmont Mayor Lisa Feld floated her name, two new potential candidates emerged this week: Port Authority Commissioner Bruce Blakeman and former state Senator Mike Balboni, who could run as a moderate due to his participation in Eliot Spitzer and David Paterson’s administrations.
Another state whose political landscape was shook up this week is Tennessee. Not only did Rep. John Tanner announce his retirement, setting up a competitive open seat race, but the Democratic field in the Governor’s race narrow by two. First, state Senator Herron dropped out to seek Tanner’s House seat instead; second, businessman Ward Cammack pulled the plug on his campaign, citing his inability to raise enough funds. This leaves 3 candidates: state Senate Minority Leader Jim Kyle, former House Majority Leader Kim McMillan and Mike McWherter, the son of a former Governor. Whoever wins the August primary will have a shot in the general election, but it should be an uphill climb.
Finally, Tom Foley moved from Connecticut’s Senate race to the Governor’s race, which guarantees Lieutenant Governor Michael Fedele will face a competitive primary. As the former Ambassador to Ireland and as one of the men who helped import the neo-liberal agenda to Iraq in the early years of the war (he was Director of Private Sector Development), Foley is clearly well-connected in the Republican establishment; that didn’t help him in the Senate race, but now he will not have to deal with Rob Simmons’s electability credentials and Linda McMahon’s vast fortune.
As always, I list all the changes I have logged in during the week to the “retirement watch” and recruitment pages. Written in red are those politicians who announced their definite plans rather than simply expressed interest or stroke speculation. First, updates to Retirement Watch:
| Will retire | Rep. John Tanner (TN-08) |
| Will not retire | No one |
Second, updates to the Senate recruitment page:
| CT-Sen, GOP | former Ambassador Tom Foley dropped out |
| CT-Sen, Green | Ralph Nader added to list |
| IN-Sen, GOP | former Rep. John Hostettler announced run |
| NC-Sen, Dem | former state Sen. Cal Cunningham is reportedly running |
| NY-Sen, GOP | Port Authority Commissioner Bruce Blakeman added former state Senator Mike Balboni added |
| VT-Sen, GOP | businessman Len Britton announced run |
Third, updates to gubernatorial races:
| CT-Gov, GOP | former Ambassador Tom Foley announced run |
| IA-Gov, GOP | Christian Fong dropped out |
| MI-Gov, Dem | Lansing mayor Virg Bernero added to list |
| NY-Gov, GOP | former assistant Treasury Secretary Emil Henry Jr. added to list |
| TN-Gov, Dem | businessman Ward Cammack dropped out state senator Roy Herron dropped out |
| TX-Gov, Dem | Henry “Hank” Gilbert dropped out Houston Mayor Bill White announced run |
In terms of New York, I just don’t think that Rudy likes the idea of being only one of 100 people in what is likely to be in the (minority) party. I also strongly suspect that polling that he has is strongly inflated as he has taken a much more hardline conservative positions since he was Mayor of New York, positions that would be hard to backtrack from in a liberal state like New York.
Really any other major recruiments will come from politicans retiring, and the number of Democrats who retire will be very interesting.
I’m sorry, I Bill White’s decision is irrelevant. He cannot win statewide in Texas. While Texas might not be the most conservative state by the numbers, I realize there are a bunch of states that went harder for Bush/McCain and for their respective Republican Governors then Texas, there is NO state in the union where the D’s face stronger opposition of a monolithic block of voters that would walk over broken glass to keep them from office, nor is there any state in the union with a more well developed, disciplined and dedicated Republican party and grass roots operation.
Perry will merely beat White if he’s the nominee, probably with 54-56% of the vote. KBH, if she wins, will crush him in a 60-40 or better landslide.
I actually think Foley wouldn’t be a bad Governor’s nominee, although it’s at best a tossup for R’s and they are probably now a slight underdog. He might be better then the Lt. Governor. In any event, I think his switch helps assure that Linda McMahon can’t split the vote between several other candidates and win with a plurality. And anything that helps Rob Simmons win the primary helps Chris Dodd lose the general election. (BTW, Simmons is the only candidate who can win even if Dodd isn’t the nominee, which is unlikely but not impossible.)
Republicans may have a superior organization in Texas (though I would call Nebraska’s better), but Democrats can be assured of a more enthusastic turnout than in other places. If you know any Democrats from Texas, they’re raving mad at their state’s political situation. And hispanics sure don’t want four more years of Rick Perry. But you are definitely right that Hutchison would do better. But White sould win a Senate race.
On CT, you’re right about Simmons, though he wouldn’t be favored against anybody other than Dodd (and maybe Lowell Weicker or Bruce Morrison?).
I agree that Simmons wouldn’t be favored against anybody but Dodd, but he wouldn’t be a lost cause against anybody. He won the 2nd most liberal district in the state 3 times, and only lost it, by 83 votes, in the worst year for Republicans in a midterm since ‘74.
Well its still hypothetical at this point, but Simmions would be the underdog against a generic Democrat. If Dodd stepped down and the attorny general Blumenthal took his place, then Simmions would be crushed, considereing the former’s immensive popularity in the state. If you all known, Blumenthal ruled out running against Dodd in a primary but entertained the notion of challanging Lieberman in 2012. If Dodd left an open seat then he could just take it easily. Another Democrat, ie one of the U.S. house members or someone from the state legislature would be favored against Simmions. I mean CT is a heavily Democratic state (not the MOST democratic but its still solid) and any Republican would have a very difficult time running against anyone not named Dodd.
Also on Texas, while White is an underdog his entry has certainly increased Texan Democratic enthusasim and against Perry at least White has a solid foundation to build upon as a moderate Democratic. Lets not forget Perry got only 39% of the vote in 2006 in a 6 way field, and many moderate Republicans who would vote for KBH in the general may be wary of doing so for Perry if he was to make out. Yes Texas has among the biggest amounts of tea party activists but they aren’t the whole of the party.
I wonder how much animosity will be around in Texas, after the primary is over. I know there will still be plenty of time until the Fall election, but, it should be interesting. NY Times Sunday Magazine had a long piece, discussing Perry and Hutchison. It was all about their personalities, not so much on the issues. Perhaps that is the whole story anyway, 2 huge egos fighting it out.
I agree with Cliff that Perry would win and Hutchinson would win easier against White.
However a 55-45 victory would underline the (demographic) changes happening, such that maybe in 2 cycles time (2018) you could get a very competitive situation. This is something the GOP has to think about as they formulate both the policy and tone for future campaigns.