For Democrats, Nevada is threatening to be as much of a nightmare in 2010 as it was close to perfection in 2008 - and month by month, it is looking increasingly likely that Dick Durbin and Chuck Schumer will have a shot at becoming Senate Majority Leader come January 2011.
The latest Mason Dixon poll of the Senate race finds that Harry Reid’s numbers are as low as ever. A favorability rating of 38/49 (his approval rating is probably lower) is bound to put any senator in trouble; and in case there are any doubts left that Nevadans are committed to getting rid of their senator, they should be dissipated by the fact that he is trailing 51% to 41% against Sue Lowden and 48% to 42% against Danny Tarkanian.
If it’s a sign of weakness for an incumbent to be under 50%, we reach a whole other level of vulnerability when the challenger clears that threshold - especially when we’re talking about a little-known candidate. (Note that a surprisingly large share of the electorate says they recognize Tarkanian and Lowden’s names, which suggests they are not that low-profile. Yet, many of these respondents also say they do not have a clear opinion of these candidates, which does mean they have room to grow.)
Perhaps most worrisome for Reid is that this poll was conducted after he launched ad campaigns meant to improve his image: That certainly doesn’t look like it has helped, which only confirms how hard it is for well-known incumbents to change voters’ perception. Sure, Reid’s large cash-on-hand will help him attack his challengers, thus blunting their ability to introduce themselves to voters in a positive light. Yet, he is tied up by the fact that he won’t know who is opponent will be until early June: The GOP nomination could be won by any number of candidates, and it wouldn’t be a good idea for Reid to launch preemptive attacks against even just two or three of them.
Reid will have to wait for the primary to be resolved, and hope not only that the candidates have emptied each other’s bank account but also that Republicans have chosen a nominee who’s weak enough to have trouble in the general election. Facing former Assemblywoman Sharron Angle is probably Reid’s best bet. (This is a case where Democrats should be careful what they wish for, though. There isn’t in the conservative Angle’s profile to make her unelectable against as unpopular a senator as Reid.) In testing the GOP primary, Mason Dixon found Angle receiving 13%, not far behind Lowden (25%) and Tarkanian (24%); unfortunately, she was not tested in the general election.
The Reid family’s prospects are looking just as damaged in the Governor’s race: Not that Rory Reid stands at depths of unpopularity, but given that he is an elected official at the county level the fact that he has a favorability rating of 23-28 can only be due to the trickle-down effect of his father’s vulnerability.
Rory is taking the time to insist that Harry’s standing won’t impact his campaign, but it’s hard to see how the fact that the state’s Democratic ticket could be led by two members of the same family might possibly not have major consequences on the results.
Rory’s numbers are all the more worrisome for Democratic chances compared to those of Republican frontrunner Brian Sandoval, whose favorability rating stands at 39-6. In that context, Sandoval unsurprisingly vaults to a 49% to 34% lead over Reid. He not only leads by 17% among independents, but he also receives 21% of the Democratic vote; he even leads in Clark County.
Sure, Reid does manage a 48% to 34% lead over Governor Jim Gibbons, who stands no chance of winning in the general election (no incumbent with a 19% favorability rating and a 50% unfavorability rating can hope to even be competitive); the problem for Democrats is that Gibbons will not make it that far. In the GOP primary, he trails Sandoval 39% to 18%; sure, that’s far smaller than the deficit David Paterson faces against Andrew Cuomo but it’s truly an atrocious level of support for an incumbent to receive from his base.
Interestingly, Mason Dixon chose to once again not test what would happen if Oscar Goodman ran as a Democrat (a possibility he has not ruled out), but they do test three-way races that include the Las Vegas Mayor as an independent. Whoever his opponents, Goodman leads - easily if his GOP opponent is Gibbons (Goodman receives 38%, with 25% for Reid and Gibbons), narrowly if his GOP opponent if Reid (he receives 35%, with 32% for Sandoval and 24% for Reid). It’s telling of Reid’s weak standing that he gets as much support as Gibbons in the first configuration; in the second, he only receives 16% among independents.
The GOP is lucky that Harry Reid’s unpopularity and Sandoval’s popularity are so pronounced, because the scandals surrounding their own incumbents could have otherwise dominated the state’s political environment and sank the party’s chances otherwise. I already mentioned just how unpopular Gibbons is, and the interview the governor’s former wife just gave to the Reno Gazette certainly won’t help him turn the page.
As significantly, Senator John Ensign’s troubles over his affair and the financial transactions that surrounded it continue to mount since the Senate Ethics Committee is now stepping up its investigations and issuing subpoenas. With Doug Hampton continually upping the stakes in his statements to the press, it will be interesting to see what he tells the committee if he testifies under oath. Yet, Ensign has found an effective counter-argument that should dissuade Republicans from ever calling for his resignation: point out that a special election to fill his seat could distract from the party’s efforts to unseat the Senate Majority Leader. “For the people who want to beat Harry Reid if you have a second Senate race in this state, that takes the attention off of Senator Reid,” he said this week.
I’m not so sure it would be a bad thing for Angle to win. She would be way easier to beat in 2016, when the Reids, Ensign and Gibbons will have no impact. And she would give Democrats an idiot to rally against. I’m thinking a more outspoken Jim Bunning.
Why don’t these people see the writing on the wall and retire? I am losing patience with Reid and Dodd, who are going to drain the DSCC of resources and lose anyway.
It would be bad because you have a extreme conservative in Nevada for 6 years.
Also (Harry) Reid has yet to use the full extent of his massive funds and if the enviroment improves then I think his standing would also. He has barely begun to use his advertisents. Remember that that in NJ Corzine was trailing by a massive amount but he started to spend alot of money in the fall and made the race competive. He did eventually lose, and it is true that New Jersey is more Democratic than Nevada, but at the same time none of the GOP candidates are as formidable as Chris Christie. Certainly Reid is very vulernable but its based on his own standing, not his opponnents, Cristie would have been competive in an open race but the current candidates in Nevada would not have been considering the Dems got a strong candidate in.
It looks like Reid will lose as even a pile of money can only help so far. I would say that Taniel states his challengers have room to grow since they are relatively unknown. It also means they have room to drop as a negative Reid campaign could easily hit their favorables/unfavorables - just like Corzine did to Christie. Then they could drop to below 50% - although in a two horse race (no Daggett type person this time) Reid is still odds on to lose. Not a disaster for Dems if Schumer gets the job.
I actually think it would be good for Dems to have a Sarah Palin replica in the Senate. Someone we can villify to the general public, not just in our own circles. Once Lieberman’s gone in 2012, once Bunning’s gone in 2010, who’s left? Inhofe is extreme, but he’s hard to find much fault with, DeMint’s just odd, and it’s not as if you want to raise the profile of someone like Barrasso. Lincoln will all but certainly be gone, but I don’t think a Republican will get the seat there. Bill Halter is likely to jump in to the left (yes, really) of Lincoln, and if he doesn’t Vac Snyder raised the possability last week. Either could beat her in the primary. And with the lackluster Republican field, it’s not as if Kim Hendren is going to beat either of them.
Angel has no hope of being the nominee. Her run is more about making sure she has the connections to replace Dean Heller in ‘12 when Heller runs for Ensign’s seat. (What, you thought Heller didn’t run this time because he didn’t want to be a Senator? No, he just thought it would be easier to take post-scandal Ensign’s seat).
The nominee will probably be Lowden and she’ll crush Reid.
If it’s Tarktanian…which it could be, unlike Angel, I’ll be worried. It’ll be a tossup IMHO. Tarktainian is not a good politician and is undisciplined. If he does win, it’ll only be because Reid has totally killed himself.
On a related note, a Mason-Dixon poll finds Heck and Titus tied 40-40 in NV-3. http://www.lvrj.com/news/poll-shows-incumbent-faces-test-78628392.html Members of Congress that poll at 40% face a high risk of being replaced.
kewgardens, just remember a few things:
It is Mason-Dixon, who was even skewed to the R side in 1994.
Heck has little room to grow; she has a lot.
She has a large lead among independents.
Her party is the undecided one; his isn’t.
It’s a lean-Dem district.
Like a few others have mentioned, Reid will have an opportunity to spend his millions to raise his opponent’s unfavorables, as the public does not have a clear opinion of the potential Republican candidates. The Republicans may start this process for him depending on how negative they go in their own primary. Unlikely that Reid can raise is own favorables substantially at this point in his career. Reid must be exceptionally well known in Nevada and if people don’t like him now, then probably not much he can do about that. However, wonder if he could somehow interfere in the Republican primary a la Gray Davis to draw a weaker opponent? Worked for Davis (at least until he got recalled.) Would imagine that this technique backfires more often than not, but Reid may get desparate.
The reason Gray Davis got away with meddling in the R primary because A. The California Republican party is totally dysfunctional, and B. Riordan made a huge mistake in taking his nomination for granted. Granted, Bill Simon’s fortune and political connections from his father helped catapult him from nowhere to winning the nomination, but Riordan should have been ready for something like that.
The reason Gray Davis got re-elected, with well under 50% of the vote, was because Simon made HUGE rookie mistakes and because California is a much more D leaning state then Nevada is an R leaning state.
It won’t work for Reid, barring his opponent making, literally, 10 times the amount of rookie mistakes Simon did. And even that might not do it.
The only thing that can save Reid is the economy. If the economy picks up and Obama gets credit, he might be able to survive. But nothing else he is likely to do will work.