Comments on: Yet another Dem drops out of a House race, but NRCC suffers two recruitment failures

By: Bill Compton

Bill Compton — Sun, 13 Dec 2009 20:35:38 +0000

NRCC is targeting Ciro. Check out Will Hurd’s campaign site: http://www.texansforhurd.com/ He’s running in the GOP primary there.

By: Maurice

Maurice — Wed, 02 Dec 2009 00:08:31 +0000

Patrician, do you really think that TX-23 is in any sort of danger at all? Any district in the South (that isn’t on the east coast) that Obama managed to win is extremely safe D. As for Cao, his seat will turn. But seriously, the GOP would barely have a dream, even if they got Bonilla to run.

By: Anonymous

Anonymous — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 19:01:37 +0000

Excuse me, you’re correct that Edwards won big in ‘06, but that was after a bitter Republican primary battle in a horrible year for D’s when he wasn’t really targeted. That certainly wouldn’t have been the case if Ogdon had stayed in.

Curncock was basically a generic R and only lost by 6%. He’s got the name ID and infrastructure now. It’ll now depend more on how bad the environment for D’s is if Edwards survives or not. I don’t think it would have much mattered if Ogdon had stayed in. At best, I think he would have been a coinflip to survive, I’d have given him a 40% chance myself. Now, I think it’s going to be a tough race with Edwards possibly narrowly favored.

By: Cliff

Cliff — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 18:55:27 +0000

I am well aware of all the facts you stated in your post Jaxx, but I think you badly misjudge the situation.

This is the first time Edwards has had a Democrat as President since his district was altered. And he keeps winning by small, single digit margins. That is unsustainable. Eventually, the environment is bad enough that you lose. If you don’t believe me, see Clay Shaw in Florida. He had won 3 very close races in ‘00, ‘02 and ‘04, and lost in ‘06 when the environment shifted.

Ogdon’s district is even larger then Edward’s congressional district, and it only takes a breeze to knock Edwards down at this point. He’d have been dead.

As it is, I think Edwards still will be in the toughest race he’s had since ‘04, and maybe even tougher.

By: Jaxx Raxor

Jaxx Raxor — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 17:24:28 +0000

Cliff, Chet Edwards is rather amazing considering that he is a generally a reliable Democratic vote for Pelosi in a district that leans overwhelmingly Republican. One important thing to note is that Republicans tend to do much better in Presidential years than in the mid terms against Edwards. In 2006 Edwards won with double digits, while in 2008 he won in the high single digits despite 2008 being almost as favorable as 2006, and this mainly because of the higher turnout and many of the voters that turned out voted party line. His 2008 victory was better than in 2004 (the first election in which the current composition of his district was held) and he won reelection very narrowly, by 1-2 percentage points.

If history is a guide, Edwards will likely have an easier time because there is no presidential election to drive turn out, and its unlikely the gubernetorial race will get as many Republicans to the polls as McCain did in 2008. So unless the enviroment is heavily against Democrats (like 1994) I can see Edwards easily surviving unless he gets a top tier candidate, which this Ogdon could have been. The enviroment is definitly tilting against Democrats seeing as how Republicans have had much better recruting sucess in both the House and the Senate, but its not to the point of a huge tsunami like it was for the Democrats in 2006.

Would Ogdon had won in 2010 against Edwards? Cetainly he would have made the race very competive and a state senator certainly has the political experience to match Edwards in a very conservative district. A no name republican will get alot of votes, but a large part of the reason why Edwards is still in office is because of his great political savvyness, and a Republican really needs to match it to get rid of him.

By: Patrician

Patrician — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 17:11:21 +0000

Taniel, Keep your antenna pointed toward potential announcements soon from TX-23 (Ciro Rodriguez,D). Local word is the NRCC is working hard to regain this seat and doing serious under-the-radar recruiting.

By: Cliff

Cliff — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 15:04:18 +0000

I think Steve Ogdon’s exit is the most serious recruiting blow that the NRCC has suffered recently. I think he would have made Chet Edwards demise almost a sure thing if the year were even remotely bad for D’s.

As it is, you’re right, anybody could take him down given the district and the year, and he still could well lose, but its a major blow.