A few days after the DCCC lost state Rep. Todd Book in the OH-02 race, another Democratic candidate has dropped out of a House race: former state Insurance Commissioner Paula Flowers announced she was ending her campaign TN-03, left open by Republican Rep. Zach Wamp’s gubernatorial campaign.
Just like OH-02, TN-03 was a very tough district for Democrats to contest: John McCain got 62% of the vote last year, increasing George W. Bush’s margin of victory by 2%. And yet, the DCCC had enough success in comparatively conservative districts in the past cycle that it seemed possible an open race would become competitive; Flower’s entry was a good sign for Democrats since a former statewide official can be expected to have the campaign skills and the profile to succeed in conservative territory.
Her withdrawal, coupled with state Senator Andy Berke and Chattanooga Mayor Ron Littlefield’s springtime announcements that they wouldn’t run, leaves the GOP in firm command of the race.
At this point, the 2010 cycle is shaping to be favorable enough to Republicans that they probably won’t have to worry about keeping such red districts no matter who Democrats nominate; as such, Flower’s decision (just like Book’s last week) doesn’t really impact the House landscape. But it does speak to decreasing Democratic confidence: The party doesn’t have to buy into the GOP’s excessive optimism to admit that they won’t have as much success on offense as they did in 2006 and in 2008.
That said, the NRCC did suffer through two recruitment failures today.
In TX-17, the reddest district held by a Democrat (John McCain received 67% of the vote), it looks like the GOP will once again fail to field the strongest challenger possible against Rep. Chet Edwards. State Senator Steve Ogden just announced that he would not challenge the ten-term incumbent in what is a top Republican priority. (A reminder: Edwards is a rare Democrat who was targeted by Tom DeLay’s mid-decade redistricting who survived the 2004 elections, which is why he represents such an absurdly hostile district.)
That said, this is one district where it might not matter who the GOP nominates. In 2008, Rob Curnock ran a low-profile campaign but received 46% of the vote; he is now back for a rematch. Edwards has practically no Democratic base to rely on; if conservative voters are as angry as indicators suggest, it will be tough for the congressman to win cross-over support as he always does. After all, Edwards survived the 1990s but this is the first time he’ll have to run for re-election with a Democratic White House since his district was redrawn.
In GA-08, meanwhile, Rep. Jim Marshall has been dodging all the potentially most damaging bullets. This week-end, state Senator Ross Tolleson opened the door to a 2012 run but he announced he would not challenge Marshall next year. (Note that Marshall happens to be one of the most conservative House Democrats, so this is one case in which Blue Dogs are not vaulting to the top of the NRCC’s target list.)
The GOP has other candidates in the race (notably businesswoman Angela Hicks and a former county party chairman) but Marshall has proved an elusive enough target that he should be able to dispatch non top-tier opposition - unless the environment is very toxic for Democrats, but we aren’t there yet and in that case Republican recruitment could matter little anyway. It is true that Marshall had a very close call in 2006, but that race intervened just after Georgia Republicans (inspired by their Texas colleagues) had redrawn his district.
In both GA-08 and TX-17, redistricting could soonafter change the district’s make-up. At the moment, the GOP controls the process in both states, so even if they fail to pick-up either seat they could be in a position to make these districts even tougher to hold for a Democrat. (In this scenario, stakes are lowered for the 2010 House results since GOP takeovers would be likely in the years ahead.) Yet, Democrats could pick-up Georgia’s governorship or the Texas House next year; that would give them a voice in the redrawing process and force an incumbent-protection map; as such, if the GOP fails to pick-up the seats next year it could become harder for them to do so in the future.
And another potential headache is emerging for the NRCC in NJ-03: Just a few days after I wrote that it was up to football player Jon Runyan to show he has the political skills to be a serious candidate, he confirmed that rookie candidates are risks when he contradicted the statement he had issued shortly before, denied he was committed to challenging Rep. Adler and added he was only “exploring his options.” His spokesperson has since said that was meant in jest (?!), but this only confirms it might not be the best idea for Runyan to go back to the NFL until the season is over and thus launching his campaign.
I think Steve Ogdon’s exit is the most serious recruiting blow that the NRCC has suffered recently. I think he would have made Chet Edwards demise almost a sure thing if the year were even remotely bad for D’s.
As it is, you’re right, anybody could take him down given the district and the year, and he still could well lose, but its a major blow.
Taniel, Keep your antenna pointed toward potential announcements soon from TX-23 (Ciro Rodriguez,D). Local word is the NRCC is working hard to regain this seat and doing serious under-the-radar recruiting.
Cliff, Chet Edwards is rather amazing considering that he is a generally a reliable Democratic vote for Pelosi in a district that leans overwhelmingly Republican. One important thing to note is that Republicans tend to do much better in Presidential years than in the mid terms against Edwards. In 2006 Edwards won with double digits, while in 2008 he won in the high single digits despite 2008 being almost as favorable as 2006, and this mainly because of the higher turnout and many of the voters that turned out voted party line. His 2008 victory was better than in 2004 (the first election in which the current composition of his district was held) and he won reelection very narrowly, by 1-2 percentage points.
If history is a guide, Edwards will likely have an easier time because there is no presidential election to drive turn out, and its unlikely the gubernetorial race will get as many Republicans to the polls as McCain did in 2008. So unless the enviroment is heavily against Democrats (like 1994) I can see Edwards easily surviving unless he gets a top tier candidate, which this Ogdon could have been. The enviroment is definitly tilting against Democrats seeing as how Republicans have had much better recruting sucess in both the House and the Senate, but its not to the point of a huge tsunami like it was for the Democrats in 2006.
Would Ogdon had won in 2010 against Edwards? Cetainly he would have made the race very competive and a state senator certainly has the political experience to match Edwards in a very conservative district. A no name republican will get alot of votes, but a large part of the reason why Edwards is still in office is because of his great political savvyness, and a Republican really needs to match it to get rid of him.
I am well aware of all the facts you stated in your post Jaxx, but I think you badly misjudge the situation.
This is the first time Edwards has had a Democrat as President since his district was altered. And he keeps winning by small, single digit margins. That is unsustainable. Eventually, the environment is bad enough that you lose. If you don’t believe me, see Clay Shaw in Florida. He had won 3 very close races in ‘00, ‘02 and ‘04, and lost in ‘06 when the environment shifted.
Ogdon’s district is even larger then Edward’s congressional district, and it only takes a breeze to knock Edwards down at this point. He’d have been dead.
As it is, I think Edwards still will be in the toughest race he’s had since ‘04, and maybe even tougher.
Excuse me, you’re correct that Edwards won big in ‘06, but that was after a bitter Republican primary battle in a horrible year for D’s when he wasn’t really targeted. That certainly wouldn’t have been the case if Ogdon had stayed in.
Curncock was basically a generic R and only lost by 6%. He’s got the name ID and infrastructure now. It’ll now depend more on how bad the environment for D’s is if Edwards survives or not. I don’t think it would have much mattered if Ogdon had stayed in. At best, I think he would have been a coinflip to survive, I’d have given him a 40% chance myself. Now, I think it’s going to be a tough race with Edwards possibly narrowly favored.
Patrician, do you really think that TX-23 is in any sort of danger at all? Any district in the South (that isn’t on the east coast) that Obama managed to win is extremely safe D. As for Cao, his seat will turn. But seriously, the GOP would barely have a dream, even if they got Bonilla to run.
NRCC is targeting Ciro. Check out Will Hurd’s campaign site: http://www.texansforhurd.com/ He’s running in the GOP primary there.