Campaign Diaries

Thanksgiving week was anything but quiet on the electoral front. Rep. Dennis Moore’s unexpected decision to retire created one of House Democrats’ biggest headache of the cycle; Houston Mayor Bill White gave Texas Democrats hope they might a shot at the Governor’s Mansion; two new politicians emerged as potential primary challengers to Kirsten Gillibrand; and Tom Tancredo opted out of the Governor’s race, choosing instead to help rally the party around Scott McInnis.

In Arkansas, the field of Republicans looking to take on on Blanche Lincoln has grown again: former state Senator Jim Holt, who lost to Lincoln by 12% in 2004 before failing in the 2006 open race for Lieutenant Governor, is reportedly preparing to jump in. Despite his relatively short tenure in the legislature, Holt is a force; known as a staunch conservative (he focused his prior statewide campaigns on gay marriage and immigration), he would be a top competitor for Republicans who’re already running. That’s sure to worry the NRSC: Arkansas might be conservative, but Holt would not be as much of a threat. Interestingly, his entry could be a test for Huckabee’s standing in the state: the former Governor is very close to Gilbert Baker and Curtis Coleman, while Holt is known as a critic.

Another candidate the GOP establishment could do without popped up in Oregon: Conservative activist Bill Sizemore announced he would run for Governor. Sizemore has been a fixture in state politics for more than a decade, as he has organized numerous anti-tax initiatives - many of them were successful. But he has been involved in numerous controversies - including racketeering allegations, investigations into his business dealings and even a jail sentence for contempt of court. Some of these were already around in 1998, when he lost the gubernatorial race 64% to 30%; if he ends up in the general election next year (which he might due to his conservative credentials, though Allen Alley has enough funds he remains favored) he would be hard pressed to be competitive.

Yet another conservative activist who’s looking at 2010 is Karen Testerman, who’s now exploring a run for Governor in New Hampshire. State Republicans have no candidate to field against John Lynch, so Testerman’s entry could be a good thing for the party: Having a gubernatorial nominee who can help turn out the party base would help the GOP over in the Senate race, especially if Kelly Ayotte wins the primary and continues to have problems with her right.

Finally, there are only four Republicans left in the Connecticut Senate race: state Senator Sam Caligiuri, the first candidate who jumped in the race, is also the first to drop out. While he was a promising contender back when Chris Dodd didn’t look as vulnerable as he does now, he did not have a big enough profile - nor a large enough bank account - to satisfy the GOP in what has become one of the party’s top priorities. (Caligiuri is running for the House instead, though he’ll have to get through another tough primary for the right to challenge Rep. Murphy in a district Obama won by 14%.) Former Ambassador Tom Foley is also considering dropping out, perhaps to run for Governor.

As always, I list all the changes I have logged in during the week to the “retirement watch” and recruitment pages. Written in red are those politicians who announced their definite plans rather than simply expressed interest or stroke speculation. First, updates to Retirement Watch:

Second, updates to the Senate recruitment page:

Third, updates to gubernatorial races: