Comments on: Gillibrand faces second wave of potential challenges http://campaigndiaries.com/2009/11/27/gillibrand-faces-second-wave-of-potential-challenges/ Obsessive political analysis Thu, 18 Mar 2010 07:30:44 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.7 hourly 1 By: dsimon http://campaigndiaries.com/2009/11/27/gillibrand-faces-second-wave-of-potential-challenges/comment-page-1/#comment-43383 dsimon Sat, 28 Nov 2009 14:59:48 +0000 http://campaigndiaries.com/?p=10726#comment-43383 I think some people are overestimating Thompson's performance against Bloomberg. It's my impression that the closeness of the race was due more to an anti-Bloomberg sentiment, a fair amount having to do with term limits, than a pro-Thompson movement. Polls consistently showed Bloomberg hovering around the 50% mark, indicating that a lot of voters had just had enough for whatever reason, not that they thought Thompson was a "hot" commodity. And many people (including myself) think Thompson ran a terrible campaign: he never really made the case as to why he would be a better mayor than Bloomberg. If that's an indication of how he would handle a potential primary run, he's not going to have an easy time against Gillibrand much less against a moderate Republican in the general (should one choose to run). I agree with Preston: if I were Giuliani, I'd rather run against Thompson than against Gillibrand. Thompson's more liberal stances would put more centrist votes up for grabs. (Though I still fail to see why Giuliani would want to be a Senator in the first place; he'd be one out of 100 with the least seniority, and he'd actually have to get along with other people to get anything done.) I think some people are overestimating Thompson’s performance against Bloomberg. It’s my impression that the closeness of the race was due more to an anti-Bloomberg sentiment, a fair amount having to do with term limits, than a pro-Thompson movement. Polls consistently showed Bloomberg hovering around the 50% mark, indicating that a lot of voters had just had enough for whatever reason, not that they thought Thompson was a “hot” commodity. And many people (including myself) think Thompson ran a terrible campaign: he never really made the case as to why he would be a better mayor than Bloomberg. If that’s an indication of how he would handle a potential primary run, he’s not going to have an easy time against Gillibrand much less against a moderate Republican in the general (should one choose to run).

I agree with Preston: if I were Giuliani, I’d rather run against Thompson than against Gillibrand. Thompson’s more liberal stances would put more centrist votes up for grabs. (Though I still fail to see why Giuliani would want to be a Senator in the first place; he’d be one out of 100 with the least seniority, and he’d actually have to get along with other people to get anything done.)

]]> By: Gerard http://campaigndiaries.com/2009/11/27/gillibrand-faces-second-wave-of-potential-challenges/comment-page-1/#comment-43345 Gerard Sat, 28 Nov 2009 07:12:40 +0000 http://campaigndiaries.com/?p=10726#comment-43345 With Cuomo and Schumer at the head of the ticket, Thompson would be in great shape. Mayor Bloomberg spent about $102,000,000 (102 million dollars!), outspending Thompson 14 to 1. Bloomberg is competent and has done a good job. He took office right after 9/11, and after 8 years of Giuliani's racial divisiveness. Bloomberg has worked very hard for the city, bringing people of all backgrounds together. If you lived in the city in the 1990's under Giuliani, you would know what I mean. Giuliani wouldn't even let local officials he didn't care for to even go to ground zero after 9/11, that is how petty he gets. I am not trying to minimize the very very significant contributions of Mayor Giuliani, but he is a complicated and difficult person. Bloomberg has been calm, steady, and reasonable, he had plenty of newspaper and union support. Most union leaders probably figured he'd win and they'd be dealing with him for another 4 years. Thompson really didn't have much support, not so much because of who he was, but because Bloomberg has been one of NYC's better mayors. Having labor union support in NYC is significant because the unions will set up phone banks, calling people to come out and vote. Television advertisements are ridiculously expensive in NYC. Thompson could barely afford the 15 second commercials he put out. Bloomberg's big bucks scared off a lot of potential campaign contributors, and, again, BLoomberg has, by most all accounts, done a good job. Even the White House stayed far away from Thompson. So, the fact that Bloomberg only won by less than 5 percentage points makes Thompson look really good. If Thompson won a primary against Gillibrand, he'd be running for an open seat that November, not running against an incumbent as was the case this year. Would Giuliani be a tough opponent, sure. But, don't forget, he had the opportunity to run for the open US Senate seat in 2000, against Clinton, and he stayed away. There are still plenty of people around who would never want Giuliani in the US Senate. The firefighter's union has no love for him nor do the teachers or most of the other unions. Would Giuliani be for or against healthcare reform? What would his other positions be? I not saying I'd bet my entire life savings on Thompson over Giuliani, but he's in a great spot. And, again, 27 of 29 US Congressional seats in New York State are now held by Democrats. It has never been like this before, in New York State. (btw, I lived in NYC and its suburbs from 1964, when I was born, until 2005, and am now in Southern California, so I know a good deal about NYC and NY state politics.) (I am really enjoying this prelude to next November's election. I usually vote Democrat for US federal office holders, US Senate, Congress, and President, but I hope lots of incumbents of both parties get dumped, something isn't getting through to the people at the top, Dems or GOP's, but we have plenty of time to discuss that over the next year.) With Cuomo and Schumer at the head of the ticket, Thompson would be in great shape. Mayor Bloomberg spent about $102,000,000 (102 million dollars!), outspending Thompson 14 to 1. Bloomberg is competent and has done a good job. He took office right after 9/11, and after 8 years of Giuliani’s racial divisiveness. Bloomberg has worked very hard for the city, bringing people of all backgrounds together. If you lived in the city in the 1990’s under Giuliani, you would know what I mean. Giuliani wouldn’t even let local officials he didn’t care for to even go to ground zero after 9/11, that is how petty he gets. I am not trying to minimize the very very significant contributions of Mayor Giuliani, but he is a complicated and difficult person. Bloomberg has been calm, steady, and reasonable, he had plenty of newspaper and union support. Most union leaders probably figured he’d win and they’d be dealing with him for another 4 years. Thompson really didn’t have much support, not so much because of who he was, but because Bloomberg has been one of NYC’s better mayors. Having labor union support in NYC is significant because the unions will set up phone banks, calling people to come out and vote. Television advertisements are ridiculously expensive in NYC. Thompson could barely afford the 15 second commercials he put out. Bloomberg’s big bucks scared off a lot of potential campaign contributors, and, again, BLoomberg has, by most all accounts, done a good job. Even the White House stayed far away from Thompson. So, the fact that Bloomberg only won by less than 5 percentage points makes Thompson look really good. If Thompson won a primary against Gillibrand, he’d be running for an open seat that November, not running against an incumbent as was the case this year. Would Giuliani be a tough opponent, sure. But, don’t forget, he had the opportunity to run for the open US Senate seat in 2000, against Clinton, and he stayed away. There are still plenty of people around who would never want Giuliani in the US Senate. The firefighter’s union has no love for him nor do the teachers or most of the other unions. Would Giuliani be for or against healthcare reform? What would his other positions be? I not saying I’d bet my entire life savings on Thompson over Giuliani, but he’s in a great spot. And, again, 27 of 29 US Congressional seats in New York State are now held by Democrats. It has never been like this before, in New York State. (btw, I lived in NYC and its suburbs from 1964, when I was born, until 2005, and am now in Southern California, so I know a good deal about NYC and NY state politics.)

(I am really enjoying this prelude to next November’s election. I usually vote Democrat for US federal office holders, US Senate, Congress, and President, but I hope lots of incumbents of both parties get dumped, something isn’t getting through to the people at the top, Dems or GOP’s, but we have plenty of time to discuss that over the next year.)

]]> By: Maurice http://campaigndiaries.com/2009/11/27/gillibrand-faces-second-wave-of-potential-challenges/comment-page-1/#comment-43343 Maurice Sat, 28 Nov 2009 06:58:31 +0000 http://campaigndiaries.com/?p=10726#comment-43343 Yes, Preston, Thompson would be a shoo-in if he won the primary. Barely losing to a billionaire without any outside support is something to boast of. And if I were Thompson, I'd be glad to face Giuliani, who's way too conservative for NYS. I would expect something like 60-40. Yes, Preston, Thompson would be a shoo-in if he won the primary. Barely losing to a billionaire without any outside support is something to boast of. And if I were Thompson, I’d be glad to face Giuliani, who’s way too conservative for NYS. I would expect something like 60-40.

]]> By: Preston http://campaigndiaries.com/2009/11/27/gillibrand-faces-second-wave-of-potential-challenges/comment-page-1/#comment-43323 Preston Sat, 28 Nov 2009 03:57:21 +0000 http://campaigndiaries.com/?p=10726#comment-43323 Gerard, were you being serious when you basically said Thompson will be a shoe-in if he wins the Dem senate primary? If I were Giuliani or Pataki, I would still rather run against him than Gillibrand. Remember, although it was closer than expected, he is still a Democrat that lost in NYC. If you can't win a general election race in NYC, then its not at all likely that you will win a general election in NYS. Gerard, were you being serious when you basically said Thompson will be a shoe-in if he wins the Dem senate primary? If I were Giuliani or Pataki, I would still rather run against him than Gillibrand. Remember, although it was closer than expected, he is still a Democrat that lost in NYC. If you can’t win a general election race in NYC, then its not at all likely that you will win a general election in NYS.

]]> By: Vadranor http://campaigndiaries.com/2009/11/27/gillibrand-faces-second-wave-of-potential-challenges/comment-page-1/#comment-43312 Vadranor Sat, 28 Nov 2009 01:19:45 +0000 http://campaigndiaries.com/?p=10726#comment-43312 There must be something in the water in Tennessee. Bill Brock was a one-term Tennessee Senator in the 1970s. He later tried to run for Senate in Maryland, but was defeated by Paul Sarbanes. There must be something in the water in Tennessee. Bill Brock was a one-term Tennessee Senator in the 1970s. He later tried to run for Senate in Maryland, but was defeated by Paul Sarbanes.

]]> By: Gerard http://campaigndiaries.com/2009/11/27/gillibrand-faces-second-wave-of-potential-challenges/comment-page-1/#comment-43278 Gerard Fri, 27 Nov 2009 20:15:52 +0000 http://campaigndiaries.com/?p=10726#comment-43278 Let's examine soon to be former NYC Controller Bill Thompson's options, assuming he wants to run for office again. Given his very big come from behind close 2nd place finish in the recent mayoral race, he would be wise to run again sooner rather than later. Strike while you are hot! (I realize part of his votes came from those who were upset with Mayor Bloomberg's success in pushing aside term limits, but, Thompson is a hot commodity now!) Thus, why only wait 4 years to run for mayor again, when he can pursue another office, and still see how the mayoral race shakes out in 2013. Running for New York State Controller, against the incumbent, DiNapoli, could be difficult, although not undoable. His other statewide options include NYS Attorney General, which Andrew Cuomo will most likely be leaving in order to run in a primary against Gov. David Paterson. With Thompson's background as NYC Controller, this might not be his first choice. He could hope to be selected as Cuomo's lieutenant governor choice, but even if he was selected, he'd be out of the limelight. This actually wouldn't be a bad choice, but, it seems that running against Sen. Gillibrand would be an even better choice. He would more likely than not win the primary, and he'd be unstoppable in the fall 2010 election, with him, Cuomo at the top of the ticket, and Sen. Chuck Schumer running for another full term. (Both of New York's Senate seats are on the ballot because Gillibrand and etc. are running for the last 2 years of Hillary Clinton's term.) Obviously, if Thompson wins, he'd have to get ready to run for a full term in 2012, but, with Obama at the top of the ticket that year, Thompson would do fine. Thompson comes from a political family, and his own background as an Assistant Brooklyn Borough President (sort of an assistant county executive), head of NYC Board of Education, and some private sector experience in the banking industry, all gives him a broad background and years of experience working and bringing people together, a great background for a US Senator. New York State has 29 US Congressional seats. Gillibrand represented one district in the far eastern edge of upstate New York. Thus she is very unknown not only downstate, but is also unknown across the rest of the upstate region. Congressional districts 19-29 are the predominant upstate districts, with small parts of districts 17 and 18. (I am putting anything above NYC suburban Westchester County as being upstate.) Thus, there are millions of people upstate who don't know Gillibrand. The bulk of Democrat primary voters come from NYC and its suburbs. She has changed her views dramatically, from being a conservative Democrat to being more liberal. This doesn't always impress people. As far a Harold Ford goes, he'd have an uphill fight. NY has voted for out of staters before, but it isn't always that simple. Robert Kennedy spent many years in the state. Hillary Clinton won in 2000, but she garnered 55% of the vote against a little-known downstate congressman, Rick Lazio, while Al Gore took 60% of the vote at the top of the ticket. If it wasn't a presidential election year, it would have been closer. (She earned 67% of the vote in 2006, with NY AG Eliot Spitzer taking 69% of the vote in his first gubernatorial race. She also worked very hard her first 6 years in office.) Let’s examine soon to be former NYC Controller Bill Thompson’s options, assuming he wants to run for office again. Given his very big come from behind close 2nd place finish in the recent mayoral race, he would be wise to run again sooner rather than later. Strike while you are hot! (I realize part of his votes came from those who were upset with Mayor Bloomberg’s success in pushing aside term limits, but, Thompson is a hot commodity now!) Thus, why only wait 4 years to run for mayor again, when he can pursue another office, and still see how the mayoral race shakes out in 2013. Running for New York State Controller, against the incumbent, DiNapoli, could be difficult, although not undoable. His other statewide options include NYS Attorney General, which Andrew Cuomo will most likely be leaving in order to run in a primary against Gov. David Paterson. With Thompson’s background as NYC Controller, this might not be his first choice. He could hope to be selected as Cuomo’s lieutenant governor choice, but even if he was selected, he’d be out of the limelight. This actually wouldn’t be a bad choice, but, it seems that running against Sen. Gillibrand would be an even better choice. He would more likely than not win the primary, and he’d be unstoppable in the fall 2010 election, with him, Cuomo at the top of the ticket, and Sen. Chuck Schumer running for another full term. (Both of New York’s Senate seats are on the ballot because Gillibrand and etc. are running for the last 2 years of Hillary Clinton’s term.) Obviously, if Thompson wins, he’d have to get ready to run for a full term in 2012, but, with Obama at the top of the ticket that year, Thompson would do fine. Thompson comes from a political family, and his own background as an Assistant Brooklyn Borough President (sort of an assistant county executive), head of NYC Board of Education, and some private sector experience in the banking industry, all gives him a broad background and years of experience working and bringing people together, a great background for a US Senator. New York State has 29 US Congressional seats. Gillibrand represented one district in the far eastern edge of upstate New York. Thus she is very unknown not only downstate, but is also unknown across the rest of the upstate region. Congressional districts 19-29 are the predominant upstate districts, with small parts of districts 17 and 18. (I am putting anything above NYC suburban Westchester County as being upstate.) Thus, there are millions of people upstate who don’t know Gillibrand. The bulk of Democrat primary voters come from NYC and its suburbs. She has changed her views dramatically, from being a conservative Democrat to being more liberal. This doesn’t always impress people.

As far a Harold Ford goes, he’d have an uphill fight. NY has voted for out of staters before, but it isn’t always that simple. Robert Kennedy spent many years in the state. Hillary Clinton won in 2000, but she garnered 55% of the vote against a little-known downstate congressman, Rick Lazio, while Al Gore took 60% of the vote at the top of the ticket. If it wasn’t a presidential election year, it would have been closer. (She earned 67% of the vote in 2006, with NY AG Eliot Spitzer taking 69% of the vote in his first gubernatorial race. She also worked very hard her first 6 years in office.)

]]> By: Cliff http://campaigndiaries.com/2009/11/27/gillibrand-faces-second-wave-of-potential-challenges/comment-page-1/#comment-43276 Cliff Fri, 27 Nov 2009 19:52:56 +0000 http://campaigndiaries.com/?p=10726#comment-43276 <i>he may also be hoping to be bought off by the Obama administration or the DNC with a high profile political appointment.</i> That's sort of what I was thinking. I've actually been a bit surprised that Ford hasn't been plucked up by Obama already. Obama is clearly more liberal then Ford, but they had similar personal styles and media savvy. It seems to me he'd be useful to the Administration in some capacity or another. he may also be hoping to be bought off by the Obama administration or the DNC with a high profile political appointment.

That’s sort of what I was thinking. I’ve actually been a bit surprised that Ford hasn’t been plucked up by Obama already. Obama is clearly more liberal then Ford, but they had similar personal styles and media savvy. It seems to me he’d be useful to the Administration in some capacity or another.

]]> By: fritz http://campaigndiaries.com/2009/11/27/gillibrand-faces-second-wave-of-potential-challenges/comment-page-1/#comment-43272 fritz Fri, 27 Nov 2009 19:46:47 +0000 http://campaigndiaries.com/?p=10726#comment-43272 "I have trouble seeing how Ford could find a path at victory." I totally agree. They were discussing this rumor last week on "Morning Joe" and didn't give it much credence. He has no base, little money and even less name recognition than Gillibrand. Unless her numbers totally tank there is no chance he will get in the race especially if Thompson enters. I can't see him winning in Tennessee either so maybe this was just a finger in the wind or he may also be hoping to be bought off by the Obama administration or the DNC with a high profile political appointment. “I have trouble seeing how Ford could find a path at victory.”
I totally agree. They were discussing this rumor last week on “Morning Joe” and didn’t give it much credence. He has no base, little money and even less name recognition than Gillibrand. Unless her numbers totally tank there is no chance he will get in the race especially if Thompson enters.
I can’t see him winning in Tennessee either so maybe this was just a finger in the wind or he may also be hoping to be bought off by the Obama administration or the DNC with a high profile political appointment.

]]> By: Cliff http://campaigndiaries.com/2009/11/27/gillibrand-faces-second-wave-of-potential-challenges/comment-page-1/#comment-43268 Cliff Fri, 27 Nov 2009 19:41:46 +0000 http://campaigndiaries.com/?p=10726#comment-43268 Thompson might have a chance at beating Gillibrand. I don't see any of the others doing so, nor having the guts to pull the trigger. But Thompson, now out of office (come January) has little to lose and a lot to gain. Even if he lost the primary, I don't think it would destroy his ambition to be Mayor in '13. Running against someone the left doesn't like is hardly something that will brand you later in NYC. Thompson might have a chance at beating Gillibrand. I don’t see any of the others doing so, nor having the guts to pull the trigger. But Thompson, now out of office (come January) has little to lose and a lot to gain. Even if he lost the primary, I don’t think it would destroy his ambition to be Mayor in ‘13. Running against someone the left doesn’t like is hardly something that will brand you later in NYC.

]]> By: Plymouth http://campaigndiaries.com/2009/11/27/gillibrand-faces-second-wave-of-potential-challenges/comment-page-1/#comment-43264 Plymouth Fri, 27 Nov 2009 19:36:22 +0000 http://campaigndiaries.com/?p=10726#comment-43264 It's starting to become very apparent that 2010 will definitely be a Republican year in regards to pickups in Congress. PA,IL, DE, CO, NV, AR, NY-B, and CT have a lot of Democrats worried. If Hoeven runs in ND, you can make the number 9. I'm waiting to see how long it will take some of these Incumbent Democrats to start distancing themselves from Obama. Lincoln will be one of the first. Dorgan may pick up that MO soon too. It’s starting to become very apparent that 2010 will definitely be a Republican year in regards to pickups in Congress. PA,IL, DE, CO, NV, AR, NY-B, and CT have a lot of Democrats worried. If Hoeven runs in ND, you can make the number 9.

I’m waiting to see how long it will take some of these Incumbent Democrats to start distancing themselves from Obama. Lincoln will be one of the first. Dorgan may pick up that MO soon too.

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