Late last week, Rep. Greg Walden announced that he would run for re-election, a blow to Republican chances of contesting Oregon’s gubernatorial race. In his absence, the GOP primary will be headlined by entrepreneur Allen Alley and by former state Senator John Lim; former NBA player Chris Dudley has formed an exploratory committee, so he could still jump in.
Walden had long since entertained the possibility that he could run for statewide, which would have given the GOP a high-profile recruit against the Democratic primary’s all-star cast: former Secretary of State Bill Bradbury and former Governor John Kitzhaber are going head-to-head, while Rep. Peter DeFazio has yet to rule out jumping in the race. (Conventional wisdom is still one of skepticism that DeFazio might abandon his relatively safe and increasingly influential position in the House for such a difficult tough primary; but every time state observers are preparing to cross him out, the progressive Democrat is reiterating his interest in the race and insisting he could still jump in.)
Whoever Democrats nominate will now be clearly favored in the general election. That’s not to say that Republicans won’t have a shot at victory, but it will be an uphill climb. Lim is now 73 (rarely an age at which a candidate can be so gripping as to get voters to go against their traditional allegiances), while Dudley will have to demonstrate he has the political skills necessary to be taken seriously by voters (there are plenty of examples of sports player successfully entering politics, but such a transition can never be taken for granted). That leaves us with Alley, who actually performed well in his 2008 campaign for state Treasurer: He lost 51% to 45%, which means he significantly outperformed John McCain.
Walden’s decision has little consequence in the battle for the House: OR-02 is a heavily Republican district (it voted for Bush by 23% in 2004 and it went for McCain by 11% last year). Had Walden retired in a 2006-like environment and Democrats might have had a shot at winning it, but for him to leave the seat open next year wouldn’t have been a big headache for the NRCC.
Meanwhile, another Republican bowed out of a Governor’s race but this time, Democrats are the one who are disappointed.
Two weeks ago, the news that former Rep. Tom Tancredo was preparing to jump in Colorado’s gubernatorial race had threatened to completely alter the way race’s outlook. At worst for the GOP, Tancredo would have won the primary, transforming the general election on a referendum on his controversial persona and extremist rhetoric rather than on Governor Bill Ritter’s record; at best, the establishment would have powered former Rep. Scott McInnis through, but he would have emerged wounded, bruised up and unsure of benefiting from a united base.
But those worries dissipated as quickly as they appeared: McInnis’s nemeses rallied by his side this week-end. First, state Senator John Penry (who just dropped out of the Governor’s race two weeks ago) endorsed him; then, we learned that Tancredo was not only pulling the plug on a statewide run, but that he was preparing to back McInnis as well!
We can now be all but certain that the general election will pit Ritter to McInnis, a highly competitive match-up since the challenger has been narrowly ahead in recent polls.
These unexpected developments occurred after Penry and Tancredo convinced McInnis to adhere to a conservative platform (entitled “Platform for Prosperity”) that the three politicians devised with the help of other Republicans. In an unlikely show of party unity given how divided Colorado Republicans looked recently (and to some level have looked for years), the platform’s unveiling was also attended by former Governor Bill Owens.
As such, Colorado’s intraparty fight will have had the most ideal resolution the Republican establishment can dream of: It got its choice pick, it did so peacefully and the party’s conservative wing emerged satisfied since it got some concession. Perhaps McInnis will get a call from Jane Norton in the days ahead; she surely would like such a resolution to the tough Senate primary that’s shaping up between her, Ken Buck and Tom Wiens.
Since we’re on the subject of Governor’s races: I shall have new gubernatorial rankings out shortly, probably early next week.
“Perhaps McInnis will get a call from Jane Norton in the days ahead; she surely would like such a resolution to the tough Senate primary that’s shaping up between her, Ken Buck and Tom Wiens.”
If the GOP is smart, McInnis will get calls from GOP candidates across the country asking how he successfully bridged the gap between mainstream and conservative Republicans.
“Tough” primary between Jane Norton, Ken Buck and Tom Wiens?
Where do you get that idea?
Jane Norton has a much higher name ID, and raised more money in two weeks then Ken Buck did in six months. Tom Wiens…nobody’s ever heard of him and he’s just starting out.
Even if there was widespread discontent with Norton, which I’ve seen none of, they’d have to have someone to rally around, neither Wiens or Buck is likely that person, and even if one could do it, they’d split the anti-Norton vote.
It won’t be close.