Campaign Diaries

House Democrats have not had many retirements to lament this year, but Kansas Rep. Dennis Moore just created one of the GOP’s best pick-up opportunities of the cycle by announcing he will not seek re-election in 2010.

Defending KS-03 would have been a tough challenge for Democrats in any cycle, but in 2006 or 2008 they would have had a stronger chance: Barack Obama did win the district (51% to 48%), so the district is not that inhospitable to the party. But the national environment in 2010 should favor Republicans; in a district that gave George W. Bush 11% in both 2000 and 2004, an open seat is bound to favor the GOP.

There are other factors still that should complicate life for Democrats: The top of the ticket should produce strong Republican coattails due to Democrats’ failure to contest the open senatorial and gubernatorial races, and the GOP has a stronger bench in the district. The name of former state Senator Nick Jordan, who received 41% in challenging Moore last year, is brandied around most often but the party has other figures it could turn to.

Yet, KS-03 is not in the same category as LA-03, an open seat Democrats have to defend that gave John McCain 61% of the vote; the GOP might be favored, but Democrats certainly have a fighting chance - and they also do have a number of state Senators who represents parts of the district. At the very least, they’ll be in a better position in this House race than they are in Kansas’s two statewide contests.

Why this development is particularly meaningful is that Republicans have had very few openings to work with this cycle - and this has been the single most important check on their hopes of scoring big congressional gains. Even in a wave election, incumbents are tough to beat: It’s open seats that produce big swings in House composition but,  as I analyzed at length in September, the number of vulnerable Democratic open seats are very low by all recent standards. I won’t run the numbers in detail yet again, but they have to be mentioned: In 1994, Democrats lost 22 open seats; in 2006 and in 2008, the GOP defended 33 vulnerable open seats and lost 19.

Moore’s retirement brings the number of open seats Democrats have to worry about to four (KS-03, PA-07, LA-03 and NH-02) - and there aren’t many more we’re keeping track of.

Yes, it’s true that Moore was no longer on our retirement watch list. As such, Republicans are now hoping that his decision is a harbinger of many more headaches for Democrats - a sign that many veteran Democrats who haven’t been expected to retire will choose to go out quietly rather than endure a tough re-election race in an unfavorable environment. How happy the GOP would be if any of Reps. Spratt, Snyder, Skelton or Mollohan called it quits.

Yet, there is little sign that a wave of unexpected retirement is coming and I am unconvinced that Moore’s decision tells us much about the state of mind of vulnerable Democrats. First and foremost… because he wasn’t particularly vulnerable. He wasn’t one of those veteran Democrats whom the NRCC had successfuly put in its cross hairs. Second, Moore was rumored as a potential retiree as soon as the 2010 cycle started. In late November 2008 (a time at which Democrats were hardly feeling depressed), he openly acknowledged that he was thinking about retiring, only to announce a week later that he would seek re-election. I am not aware of the likes of Skelton, Spratt, Snyder or Mollohan having made any statement in November 2008 indicating they were tired of politics.

All of this is only meant to put some perspective on Republican enthusiasm for Moore’s retirement: If a dozen or more Democrats in swing districts follow his path, we might talk about the House potentially in trouble but I’m not seeing where that dozen  would come from. But there is no question that this development is cause for unmitigated celebration at GOP headquarters. (It’s not like Moore announced he’d run for Senate, as Melancon did, which got the NRCC excited but the NRSC worried.)

Another important note: Moore’s retirement only confirms that the share of centrists Democrats’ in the next Democratic Caucus will be smaller. Not only are many of those who are being targeted Blue Dogs, but so are the 2 retirees whose seats the GOP is most likely to pick-up (Moore and Melancon). That said, Moore was far from the most conservative of Blue Dogs. Just two weeks ago, he voted for health care reform and against the Stupak amendment (which 64 Democrats supported); he also voted against the amendment banning gay marriage and received an F rating from the NRA.

Update: Jordan is already making it clear he is running, as is another state legislator. As for Democrats, Politico says the name of Kansas City Mayor Joe Reardon is circulating, as is that of Tom Wiggans, who I just wrote this morning was Democrats’ first candidate in the Governor’s race.