Texas received over $11 billion in stimulus funds - are you saying $11 billion doesn`t buy much nowadays?? Texas received around $6 billion in direct grants which prevented them from either cutting spending (teachers, policemen etc fired) or increasing taxes. In my own state of North Carolina the $1.5 billion we recived did prevent even further cuts (we cut over $3 billion in spending and that was painful).

I agree the Dems haven`t won statewide in a while but they are more likely to win statewide in a “local” race rather than Federally. This pattern is seen in other red states like Oklahoma, Tennessee and others who elect Democrats to some statewide office but do not vote for Democratic Senators or Presidential candidiates.
I agree it will cost White money to increase his name recognition but he has a pile behind him now.

Caterpillar Inc. building a $170 million engine-manufacturing plant in Seguin that will employ more than 1400 people and Toyota moving production of Tacoma pickup trucks from Fremont, CA to San Antonio had nothing to do with federal stimulus funds.

It is true that Perry alienates moderates to a certain degree but Texas is a very conservative state. The big lead Perry has over KBH in the primary polls verifies that. The Obama wave of 2008 didn’t really help Dems in this state. He wasn’t able to carry Texas even with the increased turnout of Hispanics in the lower Rio Grand valley.

I would like to see some data that indicates Dems are ‘more likely’ to win statewide races rather than federal ones. If this is true why are all statewide offices including the nine judges on the Texas Supreme Court Republican?

White is the mayor of Houston. Like most mayors of major cities they are elected by people living in the inner-city. If you were to ask an average voter on the street in San Antonio, Ft. Worth, Lubbock, Tyler, etc. who Bill White is, they would most likely have no idea. He can develop name recognition statewide but it is going to cost a lot of money to do so.

Texas has done well, in part due to stimulus funds which meant its budget deficit was closed and no job losses were needed. If it hadn`t been for the “evil and un-American” stimulus plan then Texas would not be in as good a shape as it is. Many states have lower unemployment than texas so it isn`t doing fantastic.

Taniel is correct that the Dems are more likely to win statewide races rather than Federal ones. Doesn’t say it is likely to win statewide but more likely.

White is the mayor of the largest City in Texas so he must have reasonable name recognition.

“First, he’ll have to run as an incumbent and defend the record in the midst of an economic crisis.” Texas has the best record of any state during this crisis. It is the only state to have added jobs. Much of the economic growth in Texas has been attributed to the Texas Enterprise Fund legislated by Perry in 2003.

“Combine all of this with the fact that Texans are more likely to vote Democratic in a local race than in a federal one…”
This is simply incorrect. Republicans hold every statewide office. Democrats win mayoral contests in places like Houston or Dallas but that has not been the case statewide since Ann Richards was the last Democratic governor.

“White…his odds of winning the gubernatorial race are far stronger now that Governor Rick Perry looks slightly favored to win the GOP primary.” How do you define ’slightly?’ The most recent statewide polls have Perry leading KBH by 12-14 points.

“Perry alienates most voters who aren’t part of the GOP base was evident in 2006, when he won re-election with only 38% of the vote in a 4-way race.” Actually it was a 6-person race with 5 of them being credible candidates. Perry received 39% and the next closest, former Dem Congressman Chris Bell got 29.8%.

“Not quite a toss-up, but White has a lot of assets (not the least of which is money, since he can transfer the $4 millions he’s raised for the Senate race to a gubernatorial campaign)” Tony Sanchez was the Democrat candidate against Perry in 2002 and self-funded, spending over $20M. Perry easily defeated him, winning 57.8% of the vote. White has very little statewide name recognition. He will have to raise millions to improve his ID. $4M is a pittance. Perry has 100% name recognition. This race is no-where near being a toss-up.

The wind is blowing at hurricane strength in Texas against Obama’s policies and Dems in general. It would take a Republican meltdown of biblical proportions for a Democrat to win the governorship under the conditions that currently exist and that will most likely carry well into next year.