With Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison no longer certain (to say the least) to resign, the top-tier campaign Houston Mayor Bill White is mounting to run for a hypothetical Senate vacancy is starting to look like a waste for Democrats. If Hutchison ends up staying in Congress until her term is up for 2012, what good will it do for Democrats to have lined up two credible Senate contenders while struggling to produce an electable candidate in the Governor’s race?
The situation might soon be remedied - but, contrary to early reports, it’s far from a done deal. After spending weeks adamantly denying that he might switch races, Bill White declared in a press conference today that he was considering dropping out of the (non-existent) Senate contest and running for Governor. He would make his decision known by December 4th - next Friday.
(In somewhat of a repeat of last week’s Giuliani confusing, reports initially suggested that White was sure to run for Governor. What seems to have initially prompted overtly definitive write-ups was former Ambassador Tom Schieffer’s withdrawal from the race, which got people wondering whether he was making room for a more prominent Democrat; Schieffer’s decision to all but endorse White in his press conference and the fact that the mayor’s campaign is no longer issuing clear rebuttals did the rest.)
Why might White be interested in switching races? Beyond the fact that it’s no longer even clear whether he’d have any Senate election to run for, the bottom-line is that his odds of winning the gubernatorial race are far stronger now that Governor Rick Perry looks slightly favored to win the GOP primary.
For months, conventional wisdom was that Hutchison would wrestle the nomination away from the incumbent and there is little doubt that she would be a far more formidable general election candidate. Yet, Perry’s continual moves rightward combined with the Republican electorate’s mood have now given him a small edge in most primary polls - but he should be more vulnerable in the general election. First, he’ll have to run as an incumbent and defend the record in the midst of an economic crisis. Second, his extremism should create trouble with moderate Republicans and independents: That Perry alienates most voters who aren’t part of the GOP base was evident in 2006, when he won re-election with only 38% of the vote in a 4-way race.
Combine all of this with the fact that Texans are more likely to vote Democratic in a local race than in a federal one (this would be true in any cycle, but it’s even more so the case when the national environment favors Republicans), and it makes perfect sense for White to want to run for Governor.
His entry would be a game changer in state politics, and it would make Texas host a top-tier Governor’s race next year. Not quite a toss-up, but White has a lot of assets (not the least of which is money, since he can transfer the $4 millions he’s raised for the Senate race to a gubernatorial campaign) with which to make the race as competitive as Democrats can hope for. Texas Monthly just published a lengthy feature on White that is well worth a read.
In this context, why might White pass on the Governor’s race? Here again, the reason looks fairly clear: While he’d be in a strong position to exploit Perry’s weaknesses, what if Hutchison wins the March primary? Sure, the general election would be competitive, but White would certainly face a far steeper mountain to climb. Hutchison is well-known, popular and most importantly within the Republican mainstream: In a red state like Texas, does that leave Democrats with a path of victory? Worst still for White: In such a scenario, Hutchison’s primary victory would mean she would resign from the Senate and there would be a special election after all - only by this point White would be stuck facing Hutchison (since he’d have already won the gubernatorial nomination) rather than being able to run for the vacancy.
Can we than imagine a scenario in which White and Hutchison wins the gubernatorial nomination, Hutchison resigns and White chooses to leave the Governor’s race and run for Senate? It sounds implausible, but it’s doable because the special election would most likely be held in May. Not only might that leave White time to come back to the Governor’s race if he loses the Senate one (fine, that sounds far-fetched), but in the compressed calendar under which the special election would unfold he would have a net advantage since he’d be running a statewide race for months.
Keep in mind that Democrats have another candidate who is running for Hutchison’s seat: Former Comptroller John Sharp has been in the race all year, and to the extent that winning a Senate seat - in Texas and in this environment - will be tough for any Democrat, it’s not clear that he would be that dramatic a step down from White. This is why it would be a win-win for Democrats if the Houston mayor were to swing contests: That would make them competitive in the Governor’s race and they would still have a credible candidate running for Senate in case Hutchison does resign.
Great article - interesting that in Texas of all sates the Democrats have credible candidates for both Governor and Senate. Even though I don`t expect them to prevail it does signal that by 2016 or so the GOP will not be able to assume Texas is safe with no effort involved. That does not bode well for the GOP in national elections.
This is an interesting analysis but it contains numerous false assumptions.
“First, he’ll have to run as an incumbent and defend the record in the midst of an economic crisis.” Texas has the best record of any state during this crisis. It is the only state to have added jobs. Much of the economic growth in Texas has been attributed to the Texas Enterprise Fund legislated by Perry in 2003.
“Combine all of this with the fact that Texans are more likely to vote Democratic in a local race than in a federal one…”
This is simply incorrect. Republicans hold every statewide office. Democrats win mayoral contests in places like Houston or Dallas but that has not been the case statewide since Ann Richards was the last Democratic governor.
“White…his odds of winning the gubernatorial race are far stronger now that Governor Rick Perry looks slightly favored to win the GOP primary.” How do you define ’slightly?’ The most recent statewide polls have Perry leading KBH by 12-14 points.
“Perry alienates most voters who aren’t part of the GOP base was evident in 2006, when he won re-election with only 38% of the vote in a 4-way race.” Actually it was a 6-person race with 5 of them being credible candidates. Perry received 39% and the next closest, former Dem Congressman Chris Bell got 29.8%.
“Not quite a toss-up, but White has a lot of assets (not the least of which is money, since he can transfer the $4 millions he’s raised for the Senate race to a gubernatorial campaign)” Tony Sanchez was the Democrat candidate against Perry in 2002 and self-funded, spending over $20M. Perry easily defeated him, winning 57.8% of the vote. White has very little statewide name recognition. He will have to raise millions to improve his ID. $4M is a pittance. Perry has 100% name recognition. This race is no-where near being a toss-up.
The wind is blowing at hurricane strength in Texas against Obama’s policies and Dems in general. It would take a Republican meltdown of biblical proportions for a Democrat to win the governorship under the conditions that currently exist and that will most likely carry well into next year.
Patrican - some nitpicking - Perry won election last time with under 40% of the vote. Unlikely to be as fragmented a field this time. So it does not invalidate the larger point that Perry alienates moderates, especially with his secession talk and other far right talk.
Texas has done well, in part due to stimulus funds which meant its budget deficit was closed and no job losses were needed. If it hadn`t been for the “evil and un-American” stimulus plan then Texas would not be in as good a shape as it is. Many states have lower unemployment than texas so it isn`t doing fantastic.
Taniel is correct that the Dems are more likely to win statewide races rather than Federal ones. Doesn’t say it is likely to win statewide but more likely.
White is the mayor of the largest City in Texas so he must have reasonable name recognition.
Guy - some counterpoint. You are giving to much credit to stimulus funds spent in Texas. A November 19 Dallas News article states, “Such figures follow a Dallas Morning News report that the 19,752 jobs created or saved in Texas with stimulus money appear to be overstated because some recipients grossly overestimated the number of jobs created. And today, a new federal report is expected to raise questions about the quality of data and validity of claims about the number of jobs created or saved.” Link — http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/news/texassouthwest/stories
DN-stimulus_19nat.ART.State.Edition1.4bab174.html
Caterpillar Inc. building a $170 million engine-manufacturing plant in Seguin that will employ more than 1400 people and Toyota moving production of Tacoma pickup trucks from Fremont, CA to San Antonio had nothing to do with federal stimulus funds.
It is true that Perry alienates moderates to a certain degree but Texas is a very conservative state. The big lead Perry has over KBH in the primary polls verifies that. The Obama wave of 2008 didn’t really help Dems in this state. He wasn’t able to carry Texas even with the increased turnout of Hispanics in the lower Rio Grand valley.
I would like to see some data that indicates Dems are ‘more likely’ to win statewide races rather than federal ones. If this is true why are all statewide offices including the nine judges on the Texas Supreme Court Republican?
White is the mayor of Houston. Like most mayors of major cities they are elected by people living in the inner-city. If you were to ask an average voter on the street in San Antonio, Ft. Worth, Lubbock, Tyler, etc. who Bill White is, they would most likely have no idea. He can develop name recognition statewide but it is going to cost a lot of money to do so.
Patrician - some fair point. I would point out that McCain won by 11% whereas Bush won by 23%. Yes Bush was a popular Governor from that state but the GOP lead was halved. Time will tell if Democrats can sustain and build upon 44% but I wouldn`t just blindly say they have no chance and that Texas is sooooo conservative that Dems cannot win. It depends on who turns up to vote on the day, especially when turnout in US elections is no better than 55-60%.
Texas received over $11 billion in stimulus funds - are you saying $11 billion doesn`t buy much nowadays?? Texas received around $6 billion in direct grants which prevented them from either cutting spending (teachers, policemen etc fired) or increasing taxes. In my own state of North Carolina the $1.5 billion we recived did prevent even further cuts (we cut over $3 billion in spending and that was painful).
I agree the Dems haven`t won statewide in a while but they are more likely to win statewide in a “local” race rather than Federally. This pattern is seen in other red states like Oklahoma, Tennessee and others who elect Democrats to some statewide office but do not vote for Democratic Senators or Presidential candidiates.
I agree it will cost White money to increase his name recognition but he has a pile behind him now.
Guy — good points. We will get a better feel for how this may play out when (if) White makes a decision to go up against Perry. Wayne Slater, chief political writer for the Dallas Morning News is a good source to follow for “inside politics” news in Texas. His reporting and credible polling in the coming months should provide some interesting clues.
Patrican - I expect Perry to win because he has energised the base with his red meat tone and policies. This just goes back to my earlier point that in elections with mediocre turnout (50-60%) then who votes is very important. In Europe which has typically higher turnout (70-90%) then the actual national “mood” counts.