Comments on: Polls show Crist & McCain struggling in Republican primaries http://campaigndiaries.com/2009/11/20/crist-and-mccain-struggling/ Obsessive political analysis Sat, 20 Mar 2010 06:45:12 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.7 hourly 1 By: Maurice http://campaigndiaries.com/2009/11/20/crist-and-mccain-struggling/comment-page-1/#comment-42229 Maurice Sat, 21 Nov 2009 17:56:07 +0000 http://campaigndiaries.com/?p=10639#comment-42229 It sounds lie Gabby Giffords is reconsidering, and I just heard a new name on Twitter: Richard Mahoney, a former SoS who is only 57. It sounds lie Gabby Giffords is reconsidering, and I just heard a new name on Twitter: Richard Mahoney, a former SoS who is only 57.

]]> By: fritz http://campaigndiaries.com/2009/11/20/crist-and-mccain-struggling/comment-page-1/#comment-42117 fritz Sat, 21 Nov 2009 04:06:38 +0000 http://campaigndiaries.com/?p=10639#comment-42117 I don't think Hayworth has a serious chance against McCain. He has a lot of baggage and would be vulnerable to a strong primary campaign, but the threat has already forced McCain to move to the right. He has already bailed on his support for climate change legislation and I expect he will soon sound much like the other Arizona Republican Senator, Jon Kyl. One person who might come out of the right wing wood work to challenge McCain is Sheriff Joe Arpaio. I have no evidence that he has any interest but he does have name recognition and a tea party following and I think he could be a serious candidate in the primary. It will be interesting to see what the RNC & RNSC do if McCain starts to tank in the polls. I don’t think Hayworth has a serious chance against McCain. He has a lot of baggage and would be vulnerable to a strong primary campaign, but the threat has already forced McCain to move to the right. He has already bailed on his support for climate change legislation and I expect he will soon sound much like the other Arizona Republican Senator, Jon Kyl.
One person who might come out of the right wing wood work to challenge McCain is Sheriff Joe Arpaio. I have no evidence that he has any interest but he does have name recognition and a tea party following and I think he could be a serious candidate in the primary.
It will be interesting to see what the RNC & RNSC do if McCain starts to tank in the polls.

]]> By: Maurice http://campaigndiaries.com/2009/11/20/crist-and-mccain-struggling/comment-page-1/#comment-42080 Maurice Sat, 21 Nov 2009 00:25:21 +0000 http://campaigndiaries.com/?p=10639#comment-42080 The biggest nugget that I find from the Florida survey is that 39% of Republicans would vote Christ in a matchup with Rubio. In other words, if the election were held today between the two, Christ would win about 57-43. And only 6% would buck the party for Rubio against Meek. Another great thing for Democrats: in the Meek-Rubio matchup, Hispanics go for Meek 39-26. And the racial breakdown: 35% Hispanic, 33% White and 27% AA (69-4). Add to that Meek only loses whites by 1%, and he's in pretty good shape for having an eleven point name disadvantage. In the three-way, Meek would likely win right now, as he trails by only 1 point and over half of the undecideds are AA. The biggest nugget that I find from the Florida survey is that 39% of Republicans would vote Christ in a matchup with Rubio. In other words, if the election were held today between the two, Christ would win about 57-43. And only 6% would buck the party for Rubio against Meek.

Another great thing for Democrats: in the Meek-Rubio matchup, Hispanics go for Meek 39-26. And the racial breakdown: 35% Hispanic, 33% White and 27% AA (69-4). Add to that Meek only loses whites by 1%, and he’s in pretty good shape for having an eleven point name disadvantage.

In the three-way, Meek would likely win right now, as he trails by only 1 point and over half of the undecideds are AA.

]]> By: Guy http://campaigndiaries.com/2009/11/20/crist-and-mccain-struggling/comment-page-1/#comment-42050 Guy Fri, 20 Nov 2009 20:35:39 +0000 http://campaigndiaries.com/?p=10639#comment-42050 Very interesting post - some very interesting senate races and all will be decided in less than 1 year. Since the mid-temrs will be so consequential I can understand why some people are being coy about 2012 ambitions. Very interesting post - some very interesting senate races and all will be decided in less than 1 year. Since the mid-temrs will be so consequential I can understand why some people are being coy about 2012 ambitions.

]]> By: Taniel http://campaigndiaries.com/2009/11/20/crist-and-mccain-struggling/comment-page-1/#comment-42036 Taniel Fri, 20 Nov 2009 18:17:50 +0000 http://campaigndiaries.com/?p=10639#comment-42036 For the record, I did not mean to imply I think it's likely that Crist would jump back in the Governor's race. (That would be such a transparent act of weakness it would only embolden Crist's adversaries, and at this point I don't think Bill McCollum would withdraw from the race just back Crist is back.) I just meant to say that if Crist gets <i>that</i> desperate, party switching isn't his only path out. For the record, I did not mean to imply I think it’s likely that Crist would jump back in the Governor’s race. (That would be such a transparent act of weakness it would only embolden Crist’s adversaries, and at this point I don’t think Bill McCollum would withdraw from the race just back Crist is back.) I just meant to say that if Crist gets that desperate, party switching isn’t his only path out.

]]> By: Panos http://campaigndiaries.com/2009/11/20/crist-and-mccain-struggling/comment-page-1/#comment-42031 Panos Fri, 20 Nov 2009 18:01:15 +0000 http://campaigndiaries.com/?p=10639#comment-42031 I am skeptical about the possibility of Crist saving himself by reentering the Governor's race. He seems to have been permanently damaged among Republicans during his senate run and the Democrats will have a field day accusing him of hoping races and offices in order to promote his own career. On the other hand, Crist becoming a Democrat is more plausible. Florida Dems had a good relationship with him since he was elected (to the point that a Dem state senator called him the "best Democratic governor we had in a generation"). And of course Obama and the DSCC would be all too happy to welcome him and kick Meek aside. If that happens (and that's a huge if for now) I don't expect Crist to be far ideologically from Bill Nelson. I am skeptical about the possibility of Crist saving himself by reentering the Governor’s race. He seems to have been permanently damaged among Republicans during his senate run and the Democrats will have a field day accusing him of hoping races and offices in order to promote his own career.

On the other hand, Crist becoming a Democrat is more plausible. Florida Dems had a good relationship with him since he was elected (to the point that a Dem state senator called him the “best Democratic governor we had in a generation”). And of course Obama and the DSCC would be all too happy to welcome him and kick Meek aside.
If that happens (and that’s a huge if for now) I don’t expect Crist to be far ideologically from Bill Nelson.

]]>