Campaign Diaries

It’s not easy being part of the Republican establishment: This morning, a Rasmussen poll shows Senator John McCain in a dead heat against John Hayworth, a former congressman who is reportedly mulling a primary challenge. McCain receives 45%, Hayworth 43% while Chris Simcox, a former Minuteman leader who is already in the race, receives 4%.

On the one hand, this poll is a stunner. How else can we describe the fact that a former presidential nominee who has done nothing to buck his party in at least two to three years is so vulnerable to a primary challenge from someone who hasn’t even jumped in the race. On the other hand, it’s hard to be that surprised. We have long known that McCain has a strained relationship with the conservative base, and that this is a particularly the case in his home state: In last year’s presidential primary, McCain won Arizona by just 12% over Romney and he only received 47% of the vote; that was a dismal showing for someone who has represented the state since 1986.

If Hayworth chooses to jump in, Arizona could eclipse Florida as the defining battle for the Republican soul. In the post NY-23 context, he could count on receiving heavy help from national organizations and he would be well positioned to take advantage of McCain’s vulnerabilities. He has a strong relationship with movement conservatives, mostly due to his hardline position on immigration - a huge issue for Republicans everywhere, but especially in Southwestern states.

At the moment, however, a Hayworth bid does look unlikely. While the former congressman (who lost his re-election race in 2006) has opened the door to a run, he hasn’t done much to entertain a buzz. If he passes on the race, the anti-McCain sentiment would only have Simcox as an outlet - and I find it doubtful groups like the Club for Growth would rally behind him. On the other hand, I have argued that Simcox could endanger McCain and I wish Rasmussen had conducted a head-to-head match-up between McCain and Simcox; it would certainly have been interesting to see how much of Hayworth’s support Simcox would have picked-up.

The problem for Democrats is that they don’t have any prominent candidate in the Senate race at the moment, nor do they have anyone lined up. Janet Napolitano moved to Washington, Attorney General Terry Goddard is preparing a gubernatorial run, Jim Pederson is out and none of the Democratic House members look interested. If Hayworth jumps in, the DSCC better find a recruit otherwise they’d be in the frustrating position of not being able to take advantage of an intra-Republican bloodbath.

The Florida showdown

Research 2000 finds that Charlie Crist’s situation is getting increasingly precarious. While he crushed Marco Rubio 57% to 4% in a January survey, his advantage has now collapsed to a 47% to 37% lead. Add to that the name recognition difference between the two contenders (57% of Republicans have no opinion of Rubio, while only 9% say the same of Crist) and it becomes obvious that the former state Speaker has room to grow and overtake the Governor.

What is surprising is that Republican voters have not turned against Crist: His favorability rating among his base is 67%, with only 26% holding an unfavorable view. As such, he is massively underperforming his personal popularity - and it’s not because voters prefer Rubio’s persona since most of them don’t really know who that is. The only explanation is that a large share of GOP voters have made a political decision that the party has to move to the right and take uncompromising stances against Barack Obama.

Asked whether Barack Obama was born in the United States, 35% of Republicans respond that he was and 29% say he wasn’t; the former group opts for Crist 73% to 16% while the latter group goes against him 54% to 31%. Rubio still has room to grow among Birthers and their allies, whereas Crist is pretty much as high as he can be among non-extremist Republicans.

Unlike in Arizona, Democrats have a lot to gain here from the Republican bloodbath. Against Charlie Crist, Rep. Kendrick Meek trails 50% to 33%; combine that with the fact that Crist’s overall favorability remains very strong (59-32), and his primary troubles are not extending to the general election. Against Rubio, on the other hand, Meek is ahead 38% to 30%. Some of that is due to the fact that a lot of Republicans are undecided (40%), but Meek also has room to grow (26% of Democrats and 30% of African-Americans are undecided).

Add to that the fact that Meek’s early favorability rating (23-9) is much stronger than Rubio’s negative rating (21-22), and a general election between them would be highly competitive. (Research 2000’s results are very similar to those Quinnipiac released last month: Crist crushed Meek 51% to 31%, while Meek leads Rubio 36% to 33%.)

Markos, who commissioned Research 2000’s poll, also tested how Crist would fare if he left the GOP. If he ran as an independent, he would receive 32%, Meek 31% and Rubio 27%. If he ran as a Democrat, he’d start with a 45% to 34% lead against Rubio (36% of Democrats but only 4% of Republicans are undecided). Neither of these scenarios is likely. Crist’s national ambitions might be all but dead, but the governor doesn’t strike me as someone who’d be comfortable as a Democrat. Then again, I was skeptical that Specter would consider a party switch - but the circumstances here are slightly different: If Crist wanted to pull a desperate move to save his career, would he not attempt to jump back in the Governor’s race?

Research 2000 also tested the Governor’s race, and the results are just what we’ve come to expect: It’s a toss-up (Bill McCollum leads 35% to 33%) and a lot of voters are undecided (32%). The poll confirms that Alex Sink’s name recognition is far lower than McCollum’s: 68% have no opinion of the Democrat versus only 37% of the Republican. That also means that Sink has more room to grow: 36% of Democrats (and 30% of African-Americans) are undecided, versus 23% of Republicans.