Campaign Diaries

Wisconsin: The Tommy Thompson threat

The number of Senate seats Democrats have to defend is rising by the month, but one the party has managed not to worry about is Wisconsin: With Rep. Paul Ryan ruling out a bid and Attorney General John Van Hollen showing no interest, Republican hopes had fallen on businessman Terrence Wall, who would be in no position to endanger Russ Feingold. And yet, the possibility of a competitive Senate race in Wisconsin surfaced today.

Former Governor Tommy Thompson made it clear he had yet to rule out challenging Feingold - or even jumping in the gubernatorial contest, about which Democrats have been feeling better since Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett joined the race last week. “I haven’t said no,” he said. “I’m looking at it. I’m looking at governor, I’m looking at senator and I’m looking at mayor of Elroy. One of the three.”

That seems like somewhat of a bizarre choice to me, since Elroy looks have less than 2,000 inhabitants and the mayorship is hardly the type of position you’d expect a former Cabinet Secretary to fall back on. So if Thompson is indeed leaning towards seeking one of those three offices, that would be worrisome to Democratic prospects of defending both their Senate seat or the governorship. A Research 2000 poll released in June found Thompson with a strong favorability rating (54% to 36%) and leading in two gubernatorial match-ups; a University of Wisconsin poll released last month had Thompson leading Feingold, 43% to 39%.

Kentucky: Road keeps getting tougher for Trey Grayson

The man who was presented as im Bunning’s heir apparent is finding an increasingly tricky path to the Republican nomination. As if Rand Paul was not proving a big enough threat, Secretary of State Tray Grayson might now have to deal with former Ambassador to Latvia Cathy Bailey, who is now expressing interest in the race in order to keep it “in true conservative hands.” She described Grayson as the “moderate choice” while criticizing Paul’s “extreme positions,” which suggests she is hoping to position herself as a consensus candidate - conservative enough for the base and electable enough for the general election.

I have seen little to suggest that Grayson is a moderate in any meaningful sense of the term; he is simply the GOP establishment’s candidate. The twist is that Cathy Bailey would also be an establishment candidate. She is well-connected in GOP circles (as we can expect from those Bush appointed ambassador) and she chaired Mitch McConnell’s 2008 campaign. As such, her entry in the race would delight Paul: While his rivals would be left fighting for the mainstream mantra, he would ride the anti-establishment sentiment among movement conservatives - and he’d have a better shot at scoring a plurality win (in a 3-way race) than reaching 50% against Grayson.

North Carolina: One more Democrat bows out

Strike one more name off of the list of North Carolina’s potential Democratic candidates: After spending a few months expressing interest in the race, former Lieutenant Governor Dennis Wicker announced today that he would not challenge Senator Richard Burr. While he was getting a lot of press over his indecision, Wicker has been out of office since 2001 so it’s doubtful he would have been the party’s top candidates; in polls, he typically came in very slightly weaker than Elaine Marshall and Bob Etheridge.

You might think this would mean that national Democrats would finally recognize that Secretary of State Elaine Marshall is their candidate, but the DSCC looks as inexplicably committed as ever to displaying total lack of confidence in the one prominent candidate they have in the race. I detailed this last week, so for this post suffice it to say that The News & Observer is reporting that DSCC officials have not given up on recruiting Cal Cunningham, even though the former state Senator ruled out a run last week. This is preventing Marshall from getting the media to acknowledge her as a worthwhile candidate. Writes The Hill in its post on Wicker’s withdrawal: “All eyes remain on Cal Cunningham.”

New Hampshire: Lamontagne could solidify conservative support

One of the big question marks surrounding Ovide Lamontagne’s Senate bid in New Hampshire is whether he can impose himself as the go-to candidate for conservatives looking to block Kelly Ayotte; indeed, the possibility that a multitude of Republicans go after Ayotte simultaneously would have all but certainly handed the nomination to the Attorney General. But Lamontagne’s most serious competitor (businessman Sean Mahoney) announced today that he would not run.

The publisher of BusinessNH magazine, Mahoney has significant financial resources he could have used. His candidacy could have split the conservative vote, prevented the emergence of a clear alternative to Ayotte and made it less likely that national organizations thought it worthwhile to get involved. As such, today’s development is good news for Lamontagne - and by extension to Democrats, who would much rather face him in the general election. (Note that Ayotte hasn’t yet fully antagonized the conservative intelligentsia, whether the Club for Growth or the New Hampshire Union-Leader, so Lamontagne still has a long way to go to make this primary look anything like Florida’s or Utah’s.)