Republicans have long already identified Rep. Alan Grayson as one of their top targets of the 2010 cycle: Not only is FL-08 closely divided, but Grayson does not conform to the expectation that only centrists can be elected from marginal districts. Just like Rep. Peter DeFazio, who also represents a swing seat, Grayson is a member of the Progressive Caucus and he’s fond of confrontational statements. And yet, the GOP is experiencing more recruitment woes in FL-08 than in any other of its House priorities.
Last time we checked, Orange County Mayor Rich Crotty, state Senator Daniel Webster, state Speaker Larry Cretul, businessman Tim Seneff and state Rep. Stephen Precourt had all ruled out a run. Since then, the district has only became a bigger headache for the NRCC: state Rep. Eric Eisnaugle announced last week that he would also pass on the race, which is making some Republicans increasingly nervous that their hopes will be left in the hands of 28-year old developer Armando Gutierrez.
Every passing day in which no other prominent candidate is in the race is helping Gutierrez, whose family is well-connected to Southern Florida’s political establishment, gather endorsements. Have rallied behind him Rep. Tom Rooney, Rep. Gus Bilirakis, state legislators and members of Jeb Bush’s clan - including George P. Bush.
This development is concerning national Republicans, who think Gutierrez is a risky candidate to field - especially considering that we’re talking about a district they had such high hopes for. For one, 28-year old candidates are rarely elected to Congress; Republican Aaron Schock, currently the youngest member of the House, might have been elected at 27 but he won an open seat in a red-leaning district.
More importantly, Gutierrez only recently moved to Orlando: He registered to vote in the 8th District in September, just a couple of weeks before he announced he would take on Grayson. In fact, Gutierrez’s critics are saying that he moved to Orlando specifically for this congressional run - a charge that is now being repeated in news reports. “Gutierrez is a real estate developer from South Florida who moved north to the Orlando area in advance of his campaign,” The Hill wrote recently.
NRCC officials are willing to say they are unimpressed. “We want somebody who is familiar with Orlando and what’s going on in Orange County,” said Rep. Lynn Westmoreland, who is traveling around the country vetting potential candidates. (Of course, knowledge of local issues is not always the most important factor for electoral success: In NY-23, Doug Hoffman thrived even though he did not live in the district and failed miserably to answer The Watertown Daily Times’s questions on local concerns. But that’s probably not a campaign model Republican officials are eager to encourage.)
All of this is clearly irking the party’s local officials, many of whom who not only don’t think Gutierrez has what it takes to win the general election but also don’t seem to think it would be fair for someone to become their standard bearer without having paid any dues to the local party. Articles in The Hill and TPM feature some unusually harsh statements from Republicans who profess high tremendous annoyance at the way in which Gutierrez has taken Central Florida by storm. If Gutierrez emerges as the nominee, he’ll have some serious mend-fencing to do if he wants to count on the local GOP establishment’s help.
Of course, it’s hardly Gutierrez’s fault that no other prominent Republican has jumped in the race; after all, the GOP was supposed to have a rich bench in this district. But the NRCC is undoubtedly concerned that Gutierrez’s increasingly impressive roster of supporters could dissuade the few people the NRCC is still hoping to recruit: state Rep. Kurt Kelly and businessman Bruce O’Donoghue. Even if one of these two Republicans were to enter, they would be a far cry of the Daniel Websters and Rich Crottys the party was initially banking on.
Another district in which the GOP is having trouble fielding a top candidate is DE-AL, which Rep. Mike Castle left open to run for Senate. Of course, former Lieutenant Governor John Carney are so favored to pick-up this seat that the burden is on Republicans to show they can even mount a competitive race - something they haven’t yet been able to do.
Last week, state Rep. Greg Lavelle - one of a few Republicans Castle had identified as potential successors - announced he would not seek the House seat. Among other reasons, he invoked the fact that this would mean giving up his legislative seat since Delaware’s state representative serve two-year terms. Other names Castle had mentioned were former state Senator Charlie Copeland, who was crushed by 22% in the 2008 race for Lieutenant Governor, and state Rep. Tom Kovach, was just elected last year. One Republican who did jump in the race is businessman Fred Cullis, who does not appear to have much political experience or extensive ties to local activists besides donations to the state’s Republican Party.
Voters do not actively use age discrimination in picking their candidates. Rather the U.S.A political system makes it rather difficult for someone in their twenties to early thirties to win a federal seat, one of them being the high age requirment (25 for the House) compared to the age limits for other democratic legislatures. One thing that Schock had was actual legislative experience as he was a member of the Illinois House of Reps before his election to the U.S. house seat. All twenty-something candidates who have been elected recently have either had extensive electoral and political experience or they are suceeeding a parent in the House. A large reason why a woman in her twenties has never been elected and have rarely been candidates because of rearing of young children. For Guitierezza seems to be his first run for elected office which generally isn’t that goood.
On why recruitment has been bad in FL-08 for the GOP, I suspect that many of these would be candidates conducted private polls showing Grayson’s vocal liberalism to be suprisingly popular and that no one wants to risk a likely loss against him. Grayson is also indepedendly wealthy and could use that in his advantage in a reelection race. In a sense he is even better than De Fazio in that he is both more outspoken than De Fazio and his district is more swingy than Defazio’s (Obama won OR-04 comfortably but Kerry barely won it in 2004, while in FL-08 Bush won it narrowly and Obama won it narrowly in 2008).
On Delaware, this is less of a suprise. Mike Castle is the last Republican from an era in which Delaware was a swing state. After Castle Republicans have no one of promience thanks to the Democratic dominence. Not to mention that the Democrats got one of thier strongest contenders in former Lt. Gov Carney. DE-AL is an easy take over opportunity, probably likely Dem at this point. Only LA-02 is more likely to turn over, and that is mostly because LA-02 is 10 points plus more Democratic than Delaware at large. If the Dem nominee is extremly weak or uknown than perhaps DE-Al would over take LA-02 as the most likely take over as Republicans at least have an incumbent in LA-02, but those districts are basically in Dems hands even if 2010 becomes 1994 all over again.
So the GOP gives up a house seat (DE-AL) for a chance at the senate. Castle may or may not win and if he does will serve one term due to his age. So the Dems lose one senate seat for six years whilst gaining a house seat. Since the current conventional wisdom is that the house is more in danger (from a Dem perspective) than the senate - it seems a fair trade!
Guy, this Senate seat will actually be held for 4 years rather than 6 (Biden was re-elected in 2008, so 2010 is a special election to fill the seat until the regularly scheduled 2014 election).
On the other hand, I have to disagree with your take that Dems would rather pick-up the House seat: Democrats might not be in danger of losing the Senate in 2010, but they’re certainly in danger of spending 2011-2012 struggling to break filibusters even more than they are right now. (And it’s not like Beau Biden would be a Lincoln or Landrieu-like Democrat who might threaten to filibuster bills.) Plus, I don’t think Dems should waste time worrying about losing the House.
I agree with Taniel that the Castle race is WELL worth the risk of losing a house seat, even assuming Biden gets in. It’s one more vote further away from 60 for the D’s, and no Republican in his right mind would disagree with that. Even if we miss capturing the house by 1 vote, highly unlikely, the House isn’t like the Senate, and having numeric control isn’t the same thing as having actual control.
Taniel, why dont you think Democrats should worry about losing the House? Democrats have no chance of losing the Senate, but the do have a chance of losing the House.
Democrats have a chance of losing either, although a good House candidate can make himself or herself better known to a district of roughly 600,000 or so voters, versus an entire state. Before switching parties in 2006, the last time the House switched party control was 1994, and the time before that was during the Eisenhower administration. There are so many first and second term Democrat incumbents in seats that also went for McCain, so that is why it is more tenuous at this particular time. Losing seats in the Senate would be disastrous, they approve all judges for the federal judiciary, and many Supreme Court justice nominees are already federal judges. With less than 60 votes, the Republicans, in this instance, can filibuster anyone they want. Also, the Senate alone approves the President’s nominees for his cabinet and many other positions, many of them which have been politicized in more recent years, for example the Surgeon General, head of the Arts endowment and so on. These “fights” can be embarrassing to the President, of any party. The Senate alone also approves treaties with other nations.
I hope Biden runs in Delaware runs. The polling is changed dramatically there. Castle’s big lead has evaporated, probably due to his being against health care reform. Biden also needs to make the case that for a Senator to be more effective, he or she needs to build up seniority. Castle is already 70 years old. The case could be made that it could be that much longer before Delaware gets the benefit of senate seniority. This translates into big money. Look at how much money Sen. Byrd brings back to West Virginia. Billions of dollars! He is in his ninth term!
Ever think about mentioning the 65 top tier GOP candidates the NRCC has already secured??? You are always so quick to explain away how the GOP is struggling, instead of actually reporting reality.
Reality Check, most of those 65 candidates are hardly “top tier”.
Gerard, Democrats are almost certain to fall below 60 seats in the Senate no matter what. It would simply be impossible for them to lose 11 seats there given the seats that are up this cycle.
Ron,
Thanks for chatting. I know it would almost impossible for the Dems to lose 11 Senate seats, and if they did, they’d probably be losing the House too, if the election was that drastic. My point was that going below 60 seats in the Senate could lead to even more acrimony, especially given how partisan things are in Washington these days. It is amazing how many Democrat Senate seats have come into play just this last 6 months. Who knows what other surprises are ahead? If Hutchison loses her gubernatorial primary to Perry, in Texas, and that is a strong possibility given Perry’s lead amongst conservatives, and given how she is looking wishy-washy, aka, she was for resigning before she was against it, this could weaken her chances in 2012, if she was to run again. Finally, the Democrats have a lot of freshmen Senators up for their first reelection in 2012 and 2014, if the numbers go down enough next year, who knows what happens. They jumped up 11 seats in 2 cycles, how fast might they go down? This is all conjecture, but, that is what this forum is for. The bottom line is that voters want results and the healthcare debate has gone on too long and is making it harder to keep focused on the economy, where there are some deep intractable challenges, losses of industries to other countries, etc., being replaced if at all by lower paying service jobs.
Gerard, I dont see how many more Democratic Senate seats can come into play at this point.
The Republicans have 6 open Senate seats, or 5, if you take out Kansas, which is heavily Republican. In a worst case scenario, whereby the economy is still awful, in terms of jobs, and healthcare reform is a bust, anything could happen. I am optimistic by nature, and the Obama administration has too many talented people to things to get out of control. But, if the Republicans held their 5 Senate seats, Kentucky, Missouri, New Hampshire, Ohio, and Florida, which is not totally impossible, although a steep climb, this starts the Dems at 60. Delaware is already changing a lot, going up and down, Connecticut is looking bad (the governship is now open, and after 16 years of being GOP held, the Dems could take it back), a strong Democrat could pull the Democratic Senate candidate over the line. Connecticut does have all 5 House seats under Democrat control, although Independents outnumber both parties statewide, but they are independent enough to elect a Democrat as governor and still dump Senator Dodd. Nevada looks bad for Reid. He is very unpopular, but, there are so many new voters there, he could definitely work this to his benefit. If these 3 lost, Delaware, Connecticut, and Nevada, this brings it down to 57 Dems. in the Senate. Arkansas isn’t looking good, in fact the Democrat Lieutenant Governor might run a primary against Senator Lincoln. Colorado has a new Senator, Bennett, who is virtually unknown. The Dem. governor is tanking in his polling, so who knows. Presumably Illinois stays Democrat, but the corruption out there is so bad, who knows what the people might do. Pennsylvania has Arlen Spector, who has to win a Democratic primary, a tall order for him, otherwise it is Sestak vs. Twoomey, a Dem. Congressman versus a GOP former Congressman. The GOP had a good night several weeks ago. If the Dems lose 2 of these 4, they are at 55 seats. After that, the only conceivable places for an upset might be North Dakota, if the GOP governor Hoeven runs, or Indiana, if Bayh is too tied into the poor economy or the healthcare reform, not likely of course. The only other conceivable race that might turn around could be the second NY Senate seat. (Sen. Schumer is running for another full term and newly appointed Sen. Gillibrand is running for the remainder of former Sen. Hillary Clinton’s term.) It would take Governor Patterson at the top of the ticket, and he will probably lose a primary. So, no, not too many places for an upset, but anything can happen in a year.
Gerard,
You seriously think that Bayh could go down? Even in a bad year he could beat Dick Lugar, who is also popular after all these years. He’s no Jack Reed, but he sure isn’t in any sort of danger. Who could they even throw at him? Daniels wouldn’t stand a chance, Becky Skillman is a nobody, and Greg Zoeller and Todd Rokita are unknown downballots.
And I would say that it is impossible for Republicans to hold all six open seats. KS is R, but so much could happen in the others that they’re realistically. At the moment, FL and NH would probably go R, MO and OH (I do remember the recent polls) would probably go D and KY is total tossup.
And a state like ND isn’t going to toss out a 20y Senator for somebody who isn’t under 45.
As for Kirk and Castle, they hurt themselves with the health care vote, and it might just stick with them.
For Gillibrand, Pataki isn’t strong enough, and Giuliani can’t get elected, contrary to what polls say.
In PA, it just depends on how easily Specter gets beaten in the primary.
NV is up to the influence of money and what seniority the gambling state wants/needs.
Finally CT and AR are at 50-50, and they would be safe D if Dodd or Lincoln retired.
So in all, it could easily be that the balance stays the same, if not better if Lincoln and Reid go (Carnahan isn’t to the right of McCaskill, Fischer, Hodes and Meek are rank Ds and Conway is on the level of Carper or Conrad.
Maurice, I actually think that Arkansas would be pretty safe Republican pickup if Lincoln retired. That state just does not like Democrats right now. I think Connecticut would probably be a tossup as well even without Dodd.
Reality Check, I just wrote about the NRCC’s recruitment successes in 3 districts a few days ago, not to mention posts every few days detailing the awful polls Democrats are seeing. So perhaps you should take a step back before getting self-righteous.
Ron (and everyone else), I imagine I’ll have to write a more detailed post about the prospects of a House takeover, but I frankly see it as unlikely as Democrats losing the Senate. With the seats they’re likely to win, it would mean Republicans would need to pick-up at least 44 seats - and since there’s a stunningly low 3-4 vulnerable open seat, that means beating 40 or so incumbents. There’s little at this point to justify such an outlook.
Of course, if you are envisioning the GOP picking-up 11 Senate seats (that would mean: CT, DE, NV, AR, CO, IL, PA, CA, HI, ND and NY), well then we are talking about such a huge tsunami that we might as well imagine a 60-seat takeover.
Taniel - thanks for correcting my mistake. Getting 60 votes now in the senate is hard enough with the likes of Lieberman so losing one Dem and gaining a moderate GOP senator would worsen the position but not hugely.
The Dems then gain an extra house seat and would be favored to keep it long term, and in 4 years Castle retires and the Dems win. Short term problems for some long term gain.
The retirement of the two ladies in Maine (not for a while agreed) will add two further Democratic senators to help balance losses in the 2016-2020 timeframe.
What makes you think the two ladies from Maine are retiring anytime soon? Neither of them are all that old. Snowe is…61 I think and Collins is 59 if I’m not mistaken.
I didn’t say soon - read the post. What I said was they will retire (or switch parties if the teabaggers have anything to do with it) at somepoint in the next decade or so. Then Dems would be favored (of course depends on exact candidate). Snowe is 62 and Collins is 56. I dont see either of them wanting to be a Thurmond or Bryd and go on, and on into their 90’s. We will see.
Mr. Gutierrez may have family money and influence in South Florida, but District 8 is five hours north, covering an area from Orlando to Ocala. Moving to Orlando in August, then announcing his candidacy just doesn’t sit well with many voters.
Fortunately, there is already a credible contender for FL District 8. In early straw polls, Patricia Sullivan seems to be showing very good organization and strength. Her strength is her appeal to voters and to fundraisers who prefer to back fresh faces. Because many of the better-known politicians need to do immediate damage control because of past transgressions, Patricia has taken the leadership position in the district.
Grayson may have practically unlimited personal funds from his law practice, but he cannot arrange for another Obama landslide that increased voter turnout in District 8 by more than 80%. Couple that with his “bad boy” demagoguery over the last few months, he’ll have difficulty staging a repeat of his 2008 close win against a weak Republican.
Grayson was not a “name” Democrat in 2008, and has done very little within the district to endear himself to voters, especially the voters who show up for mid-term elections. We don’t need a well-know Republican to beat him, we need a candidate with a clean record and the determination to campaign tenaciously and intelligently. Patricia Sullivan seems to be that person.
Please take notice of how close it was for Hoffman in NY, with very little time on the Ballot. We here in Central Florida will replace Alan Grayson with Patricia Sullivan., She is the candidate to replace him. She has the Integrity and Principles are government has been lacking. We the People that you have not been hearing… will be one by one replacing the corruption in our America, One seat at a time. So take note: Patricia Sullivan is the Next Congresswoman for District 8
Armando Gutierrez is nothing more than the number two Carpetbagger right behind Alan Grayson. Since we already have one carpetbagger we don’t need another one. What we need is a down to earth representative that has only one agenda and that is to represent the people of the district. What we have now is Alan Grayson man of the Party not of the People. His representation has consisted of adhering to the Progressive agenda of the Democratic Party and ignoring the wishes of his constituents. That will change a year from now with the election of conservative Patrica Sullivan as his replacement. She has been making a name for herself winning poles in the 8th District and taking the fight directly to Mr. Grayson by filing complaints regarding his web site with the Ethics Committee that forced him to alter that site. Patricia Sullivan is the type of representative we and the Republican Party need and it’s about time the NRCC realizes that fact.
District 8 in Florida is embarrassed by the antics of Grayson. A fresh face with honesty and transparency will be elected. Someone who has lived in Central Florida almost all her life and has devoted herself to her family and community is standing strong and working hard to meet everyone in her district. Don’t be afraid to say and publish the name, Patricia Sullivan, the next District 8 Representative.
I have rarely been as impressed with any candidate as I was with Patricia Sullivan. The people in District 8 who have been so embarassed by Grayson, will be very happy with the solid, intelligent, principled representation they will have with Patricia Sullivan. We would all be proud to have her in Congress.
Again another article that will not mention Patricia Sullivan. She has been out there talking to people all over the district and getting her name out there. Maybe the press don’t know her because they aren’t out there with the people. But the people are getting to know her. She lives in the district and has for many years and even longer in the central florida area. If you look at the 2 area polls that just closed this past week you’ll see her name. Patricia Sullivan won both of them. Check out Budd Hedinger and The Guetzloe polls and see that she has supporters already and don’t stop there tomorrow she’ll be on the national news on Fox and Friends. Boy, there are going to be alot of people surprised when Patricia takes Grayson down in 2010. I mentioned this once before and I’ll mention it again. Maybe the GOP can’t find anyone to run because the big name politicians out there know we the people are not looking for the same old thing. We the people are looking for the common folk (like our founding fathers) out there that love our country and are willing to stand up for the people instead of just doing what will get them further in their political career. I believe in Patricia Sullivan and will stand with her and help her in anyway I can. I am proud to stand with her and what she stands for. Check her out. http://www.patriciasullivanforcongress.com and don’t forget to check on her blog link there to see even more.
We do not need someone to “move” to the 8th district and run against Grayson. We have a person who already is and has been a resident. A person who can take Grayson on and win, that person is Patricia Sullivan. The NRCC is missing the boat if they do not take a close look at Patricia Sullivan’s qualifications. She is intelligent, articulate ant not a RINO. If the NRCC wants a fiscal and social conservative they need to start looking at Patricia. She is a resident of the 8th district who understands both the local and national issues. We do not need to “import” people that the RNCC hopes to beat Grayson…Patricia Sullivan is already here and will win in 2010.
Maybe all of the talking heads and media folks should stop looking for top contenders to be big names in the GOP. We are ready for some people that have been living out in the community…paying taxes, raising families, educating children, supporting local causes. Patricia Sullivan is that person. She is in support of fiscal responsibility, smaller government, free market solutions and using the constitution as her guide. Check her out at patriciasullivanforcongress.com and on Fox and Friends Wednesday morning
The people of the 8th district aren’t looking for another “big name” candidate. We have our candidate, Patricia Sullivan, and she will defeat Alan (the idiot) Grayson in 2010. It’s time for the Republican party to start listening to the people they are supposed to be representing and stop trying to recruit another career politician. The 8th district wants a Patriot, not a politician, to go to Washington and that Patriot is Patricia Sullivan.
The fact is that people all over the country are not happy with the way our “representatives” are representing themselves and special interest and not “We the People”. There needs to be a shake up North, South, East, West and everywhere in between. We have a great opportunity here in Congressional District 8 to elect a Patriot who stands for smaller government, upholding our Constitution and fiscal responsibility. Patricia Sullivan is NAME you need to be looking for. She may not be able to out-spend Grayson but there is one thing she will do that he can’t do - represent the citizens of Central Florida with integrity!