Campaign Diaries

We’re back to the 80s in Iowa: Branstad and Grassley hold big leads

As soon as former Iowa Governor Terry Branstad signaled he would seek to regain his old job, we knew that Chet Culver would be one of the cycle’s most endangered incumbents. And a new Des Moines Register poll suggests the race might not even be competitive: Branstad leads by a stunning 24% margin - 57% to 33%. Despite the fact that his approval rating is not dismal (40-49) and his favorability rating remains positive (47-46), Culver finds himself in David Paterson-territory! (This survey, conducted by Selzer & Co., is one of the country’s most reputable polls so it’s hard to dismiss these results - especially since Rasmussen found Culver facing just as large a deficit earlier this fall.)

The magnitude of the hole Culver finds himself in might be due to Branstad’s strength (the former governor has a 60% to 22% favorability rating), but a lot of it stems from the incumbent’s vulnerability and from voters’ worry about the state economic situation. Matched-up to businessman Bob Vander Plaats, Culver trails 45% to 37% - a damning margin given that it is well outside of the margin of error and that 64% of voters have no opinion of Vander Plaats. Culver leads by 7% and 8% against even lesser-known Republicans, but he fails to break 42%.

As if that was not enough good news for Republicans, the poll also finds Senator Chuck Grassley is as safe as can be in his quest for a sixth term. Democrats have been touting the candidacy of attorney Roxane Conlin, who trailed by only 12% in a recent Research 2000, but the DMR has Grassley leading 57% to 30%. His approval rating stands at 57%; that might be a dip from the 75% he enjoyed earlier this year, but it will take far more of a decline for this Senate race to get interesting.

In AR-02, Rep. Snyder is in trouble

The GOP has been recruiting candidates against long entrenched Democratic representatives who haven’t received a competitive challenge in years - sometimes decades. Combined with the absence of reliable House polling, that has made it hard to determine which are actually vulnerable and which have a solid enough hold on their district that they’ll coast to re-election no matter who they face. PPP remedies the situation for one such district, finding that Rep. Vic Snyder does have a lot to worry about heading into 2010 - and it’s not even because of the identity of his challenger.

Former U.S. Attorney Tim Griffin’s entry in the race was heralded as a NRCC coup, but he is little-known (only 33% of respondents have an opinion about him) and he doesn’t poll substantially better than two unknown Republican candidates. That doesn’t help Snyder mount a meaningful lead, however: He is up 44% to 43% against Griffin, 45% to 42% against David Meeks and 44% to 42% against Scott Wallace. Snyder’s approval rating is not that terrible (42% to 46%), but it looks like nearly everyone who views his performance unfavorably is looking to vote against him.

And that’s exactly why so many Democratic incumbents are facing terrible polls right now: Voters are so committed to ousting Reid, Lincoln or Culver that they are already willing to back their opponent, no matter how obscure a candidate we’re talking about. That is not the case for Republican incumbents: Vitter and Burr might face underwhelming approval rating, but voters who are skeptical of them aren’t rallying behind Democratic challengers; this allows them to enjoy large leads, even if they’re stuck under 50%.

Paterson continues to sink, but Gillibrand finally improves her standing

Believe it or not, David Paterson continues to sink. His approval rating and his re-elect enjoy a slight 2% uptick in the latest Siena poll, but his match-up against Andrew Cuomo leads to unbelievable results: 75% to 16% in the Attorney General’s favor, by far the largest lead he has enjoyed all year. A reminder: In the November 2008 survey, Paterson led Cuomo 53% to 25%. What a disaster 2009 has been for the New York Governor.

Worst still for Paterson: He trails Rick Lazio for the very first time, as the little-remembered former congressman grabs a 42% to 39% edge. That removes the last bright spot Paterson was enjoying in these polls. No surprise in Paterson’s match-up against Giuliani (56% to 33% for the former Mayor), nor in Cuomo’s results (he leads Giuliani 53% to 41% and he crushes Lazio 67% to 22%). With Cuomo enjoying 67% approval rating, it’s looking as unlikely as ever that anyone could stop his march to the Governor’s Mansion. It’s not even like voters would be annoyed at him for leaving his position to take on an incumbent: 59% of respondents want Cuomo to run for Governor rather than for Attorney General.

Over on the Senate side, Kirsten Gillibrand finally manages to right her numbers: Her re-elect reaches 33%, by far the highest level she has reached all year. Her favorability rating stands at 34-24; that still means that she has a lot of work to do to introduce herself to New Yorkers, but she hadn’t enjoyed that large a net rating since the spring. Most encouraging for Gillibrand: She dramatically improves her general election numbers. While she trailed by 13% against Giuliani in October, she is now behind 49% to 43%; against Pataki, she recovers from a 5% deficit to grab a 45% to 44% edge - the first time in 5 polls she has enjoyed any type of lead.