The past week brought us a radically altered landscape in Connecticut, where Jodi Rell’s abrupt retirement created yet another highly competitive gubernatorial race and triggered a flurry of questions - the most important of which (will Richard Blumenthal jump in?) has already been answered. The second state to be the focus of attention was North Carolina, where Bob Etheridge and Cal Cunningham’s announcements that they would not challenge Richard Burr finally brings some clarity to the Senate race: While there are still some Democrats who are considering jumping in and while attorney Kenneth Lewis is also in the race, Secretary of State Elaine Marshall can now position herself as the party’s front-runner.
In Vermont, the fate of the gubernatorial race continues to be in the hands of independent politicians. The surprise is that the first third-party entrant might not be a candidate for the Progressive Party but a former Republican state Senator: Michael Bernhardt is now saying he will decide what to do by the beginning of 2010, and that he is not impressed with the probable GOP nominee, Lieutenant Governor Brian Dubie. Meanwhile, Progressive Party head Anthony Pollina, who came in front of the Democratic candidate in the 2008 race, is now considering seeking the Democratic nomination next year; that would sure be a major twist.
In Utah, Senator Bob Bennett continues to feel the heat from the right. A week after Attorney General Mark Shurtleff dropped out, 2 new challengers emerged: businessman Fred Lampropoulos, who had some limited success in a prior gubernatorial run, and Mike Lee, the son of Rex Lee (U.S. Solicitor General under Reagan and a former president of BYU). Remember that the large number of challengers does not necessarily help Bennett survive, quite the contrary it makes it likely that the senator will fail to clear 60% of delegates at the state convention, which would force him in a primary only against one opponent.
In New York, Senator Kirsten Gillibrand’s inability to build a solid approval rating is apparently making some Democrats nervous enough that talk of a possible primary challenge has not died down. Jonathan Tasini and Jon Cooper are the only declared candidates left, but two new names were brandied around this week: state Comptroller Bill DiNapoli and New York City Comptroller William Thompson, whose unexpectedly close loss to Michael Bloomberg is making him look like a far stronger politician than he was ever portrayed during the mayoral race. Neither DiNapoli nor Thompson have directly voiced any interest, however.
In Minnesota, we got yet another drop out: state Senator Michael Jungbauer is the second Republican this month who is leaving the gubernatorial race. After months of just about any ambitious politician jumping in, the time has come in which candidates assess their chances and strength. That said, I am surprised that it is the GOP field that’s getting smaller: While there are a number of prominent Democrats who are running, no Republican front-runner has emerged. With Jungbauer’s exit, there are 5 declared candidates left - 4 of them state legislators and the fifth a former state Auditor.
As always, I list all the changes I have logged in during the week to the “retirement watch” and recruitment pages. Written in red are those politicians who announced their definite plans rather than simply expressed interest or stroke speculation. First, updates to Retirement Watch:
| Will retire | Governor Jodi Rell |
| Will not retire | Rep. Danny Davis (IL-07) Rep. Judy Biggert (IL-13) Rep. Bob Etheridge (NC-02) |
Second, updates to the Senate recruitment page:
| IL-Sen, Dem | Greenville city councilman Willie Boyd is running businessman Corey Dabney is running attorney Jacob Meister is running Robert Marshall is running |
| IL-Sen, Green | former alderman John Arrington is running former judge Don Lowery is running Thomas Kuna is running Andy Martin is running school board member Kathleen Thomas is running former financial director Bob Zadek is running |
| IL-Sen, Green | Jones LeAlan is running |
| NC-Sen, Dem | former state Sen. Cal Cunningham rules out run Rep. Bob Etheridge rules out run |
| NH-Sen, GOP | Ovide Lamontagne announced run |
| NV-Sen, GOP | former Board of Education member Greg Dagani announced run |
| NY-Sen, Dem | state Comptroller Bill DiNapoli added to list NYC Comptroller William Thompson added to list |
| UT-Sen, GOP | businessman Fred Lampropoulos added to list lawyer Mike Lee added to list |
Third, updates to gubernatorial races: state
| CO-Gov, GOP | state Senate Minority Leader Josh Penry dropped out |
| CT-Gov, Dem | Attorney General Richard Blumenthal will not run |
| CT-Gov, GOP | Lieutenant Governor Michael Fedele is running former Rep. Rob Simmons will not run |
| IL-Gov, Dem | attorney Ed Scanlan is running community activist William Walls is running |
| IL-Gov, GOP | Adam Andrzejewski is running DuPage County State’s Attorney Joe Birkett will not run businessman Ron Gidwitz will not run former party chair Andy McKenna is running Attorney General Jim Ryan is running DuPage Co. Board chair Robert Schillerstrom is running former Treasurer Judy Baar Topinka will not run former Chamber of Commerce CEO Doug Whitley will not run |
| IL-Gov, Green | Rich Whitney is running |
| MN-Gov, GOP | state Senator Michael Jungbauer dropped out |
| TN-Gov, Dem | state Senate Minority Leader Jim Kyle is running |
| VT-Gov, Dem | Anthony Pollina added to list |
| VT-Gov, Indie | former state Rep. Michael Bernhardt added to list |
Is Jim Kyle the Democrats’ strongest hope in Tennesse, or is Kim McMillan? I’m not sure either could beat Wamp (though they probably could beat Ramsey). If John Tanner wants to exit politics, I’m pretty sure he could win it. A House seat is worth keeping a Governorship in a state like TN, especially with redistricting. And it isn’t a foregone conclusion Democrats would lose his district, either. But with the Republican control of the legislature, Gordon’s seat will go R after he retires and Linc Davis could face trouble anyway. (If it’s too bad for him, he could take on Corker.)
It just keeps getting better. On your ratings page, there are 11 tossup races for governor, (I removed New Jersey for obvious reasons), Ohio is becoming a tossup, perhaps Arizona, and now Connecticut has to see who is running. I wonder how many races won’t be decided on election eve? New York (where I lived for 41 years) has great potential to get real interesting. Governor Patterson has a lot of NJ Governor Corzine’s personal qualities, a nice person, but more of a bumbling professor type than a strong executive. He could easily lose a primary to Andrew Cuomo and the Republicans could potentially go pretty far, don’t forget, from 1994 to 2006, the governor was a Republican. New York is so over-taxed most people outside the state can’t conceive of how bad it is. The senate race could get dicey. The only saving grace is that both senators are on the ballot, (running for the remainder of Hillary Clinton’s term), so Schumer could help the other candidate. I don’t think most New Yorkers would want to send a Republican senator to Washington, although are comfortable enough sending a Republican to the governor’s mansion. New York now has 27 out of 29 Democratic Members in the US House of Representatives, an astounding number. A weak gubernatorial candidate and one weak senatorial candidate could wreak havoc down the ballot, with Congressional races and with the New York State Senate, which just went to the Democrats last year, after many decades of control by Republicans. (The State Assembly is overwhelmingly Democratic.) Reapportionment is coming up again! The Dems are so close to having total control over it, for the first time in several generations! I wonder if Senator Chuck Schumer is at all concerned about his senate race. Stranger things have happened, not likely he’ll go down with the others, but why even chance it? Jon Cooper, an openly gay male, is a Suffolk County (suburban NYC) legislator, who has a partner and a big brood of children, and knows how to win as a moderate Democrat. He could easily give Senator Gillibrand a run for the money. She formerly represented the far Eastern portion of upstate New York in the US House of Reps. and thus is still very much unknown to most voters in the state. The first openly gay candidate could easily beat her in a NY primary. If Bill Thompson, who almost became NYC mayor last week, decides to go for the senate seat, he’ll be very hard to beat and that will make it easier for other Dems in the party establishment to run from Patterson, who, like Thompson is African-American; especially those new moderate upstate Congressmen who were elected in last year with very small margins of victory. I could go on, but, wow, if seemingly half of Illinois is running for office because of the corruption and incompetence, I have some hope for New York.
Thompson in NYC would be silly to run for the Senate seat. The near-miss for NYC mayor should have endeared him to many Democrats and activists. They might be irked if he entered against an Dem incumbent who is still running.
I think Thompson needs to get cozy with Cuomo and run with him for LT Gov…
Having multiple people running for Bob Bennett (Utah) Senate 2010 doesn’t help Bob Bennett.
If he doesn’t get 60% the 1st ballot, he goes to a 2nd round. All but the top 3 candidates are eliminated (including him if he isn’t in the top 3).
The 2nd round of votes, if there isn’t someone at 60%, the lowest of the 3 is out and you do this again.
There is this next year, for the 1st time a minute for someone getting through the race to speak, between rounds, giving a chance for endorsements.
Based on that, and the likelihood that none of the challengers (or at least the delegates not wanting Bennett) will endorse Bob Bennett prior to a nominee, all the other votes will end up as if only 2 are running.
Bennett will need 60% to avoid a primary. He will also need 40% to make it to a primary.
There is a large percentage of GOP insiders, that do not think he will make it out of convention.