Campaign Diaries

[Updated to reflect reports that Hutchison will announce she'll resign no matter who wins the March primary.]

Kay Bailey Hutchison will not resign in 2009 after all. She is set to announce tomorrow that that she will stay in the Senate through her March primary showdown with Governor Rick Perry.

Yet, she’ll reportedly insist that she is sure to resign in March whether or not she beats Perry. If that is true (if it is not just a bluff to dispel the impression that she is putting off the resignation because her gubernatorial campaign is going downhill), it means a special election to fill her Senate seat will be held on May 9th (first round) and June 2nd (runoff).

Here is why: Texas law holds that a special election must be held on the next “uniform election date” that is set to occur at least 36 days from the time of the vacancy. Two such “uniform election dates” remain: One in May (which this year falls on the 9th) and one in November. What this means is that there would be a springtime special election as long as Hutchison resigns before April 3rd.

That Hutchison was planning to leave the Senate far in advance of the March primary was not just a matter of speculation: She had said as much. In fact, as 2009 began many believed the special election would be held by the year’s end and politicians from both parties behaved accordingly. Not only have many made it clear that they’d seek Hutchison’s seat, but some have already mounted full-blown campaigns: Houston’s Democratic Mayor Bill White has already raised $6 million for a Senate run!

The incredibly compressed schedule that could result from a March resignation would help Democrats in two important ways. First, it would boost those candidates who had long already been preparing themselves for a Senate run - and here White’s millions could come to be very important. Second, it would prevent the replacement Senator Perry would appoint in the interim from building any incumbency advantage (if Hutchison resigned today, Perry would replace her with a Republican who would be able to run as a six-month incumbent in May).

Of course, Hutchison could very well push back her resignation further if that’s what it took to keep the improve the GOP’s chances of holding on to the seat. But even that would mean that we get an additional Senate race in 2010 than what we already have on our roster: If Hutchison resigns between April 3rd and the end of September, a special election would be held in November.

On the other hand, I would not rule out the possibility that Hutchison is now looking not to retire at all; if she lost the Republican primary in March, she could very well make a new statement announcing she’ll hold on to her seat after all. It’s not like the NRSC would blame her!

Why would she insist that she’ll resign nonetheless if she had not fully decided to do so? Because saying otherwise would be a damning admission that her gubernatorial campaign is in a tough spot.

Hutchison’s plans to resign before the primary was an extraordinary show of confidence. Sure, it never looked like she would walk over Perry, but early conventional wisdom held her up as the clear favorite. That has long now gone out of the window: Conservatives have gotten energized, Perry has done he can to embrace Tea Partiers, the Republican base has soured on anyone associated with Washington, D.C. and polls have found Hutchison slipping quite dramatically. Just this morning, a Rasmussen poll had Hutchison losing a 2% edge to go under 46% to 35%. The primary is now a toss-up; if anything, the Republican electorate’s mood suggests Perry has a slight edge.

In that context, it is a far greater risk for Hutchison to resign now than it looked like it would be in June. For her to come out and outright tie her resignation to the primary’s results, however, would be an expression of vulnerability - an admission that could make it look like she is no longer willing to throw everything she has in her gubernatorial quest. That would be a dangerous impression for Hutchison to convey: As a sitting senator, she already faces questions as to how much she possibly could want the governorship and it’s important for her to look 100% committed to court donors, party officials and activists.

In short, the situation remains chaotic. Will Hutchison resign, when will she resign, will there be a special election, when will there be a special election, who will run, who will benefit from a 2-month campaign - all questions to whom no definite answers can be offered at the moment.