Campaign Diaries

There are obvious reasons as to why Elaine Marshall isn’t Democrats’ dream candidate in North Carolina’s Senate race. For one, her 2002 campaign was a weak one; she came in third in the Democratic primary, in great part plagued by her inability to compete financially. Second, there is an argument to be made that any politician who has been a statewide official for 13 years but has remained relatively low-profile - most polls find Marshall with unimpressive name recognition - lacks the fire needed for a statewide campaign.

And yet, that’s not quite enough to explain why Marshall is being treated as such a minor-league contender. For one, the DSCC has made it unusually clear that it doesn’t regard her as the strongest potential candidate by transparently banking everything on an effort to recruit Rep. Bob Etheridge. In fact, we’re left to wonder whether they consider her to be a candidate at all since they’re signaling they’d prefer just about anyone to Marshall. Until he ruled out running on Monday, former state Sen. Cal Cunningham was held up as an ideal back-up to Etheridge and there’ve been suggestions that the DSCC might still court him if Etheridge opts out.

Reading articles about Etheridge’s indecision and Cunningham’s exit, you would think Democrats are utterly failing at finding any candidate. Here’s how The Washington Post’s The Fix described the race earlier this week (before Cunningham announced he wouldn’t run):

Senate Democrats will know this week whether they have succeeded in filling their last major recruiting hole when Rep. Bobby Etheridge (D-N.C.) announces whether or not he will take on Sen. Richard Burr in 2010. Democrats have long believed that Burr is vulnerable but have watched while high-profile recruits like state Attorney General Roy Cooper… [If Etheridge doesn't run], expect national party operatives to turn to attorney Cal Cunningham as their preferred nominee.

Could an argument be made that Cunningham would be a stronger general election than Marshall? Certainly. But to suggest that their electability difference is so clear that North Carolina is a “major recruitment hole” with Marshall in the race but would be a recruitment success if Cunningham ran is just silly.

It’s also a strategically incomprehensible move on the DSCC’s part: With no evidence that any of the politicians national Democrats are touting will jump in the race (Etheridge is expected to make an announcement by the end of the week, and conventional wisdom is that he has already decided to seek re-election to the House ), would would the DSCC go to such lengths to snub the one prominent candidate who is already running?

After all, the transparent lack of confidence Democrats are exhibiting towards Marshall is bound to hurt her campaign: Not only does it make her look not credible to the media (see The Fix’s write-up) but it also suggests to donors that they shouldn’t donate to the campaign, if for no other reason that the DSCC is signaling it’s unlikely to spend money in North Carolina on Marshall’s behalf.

The DSCC’s willingness to devote resources to the state is indeed a crucial question: You surely remember that Chuck Schumer’s decision to go all-out against Elizabeth Dole last year was a huge factor in Kay Hagan’s victory. If Etheridge doesn’t run, if Cunningham doesn’t change his mind and if former Lieutenant Governor Dennis Wicker stays out of the race, will the DSCC move to embrace Marshall’s candidacy or will they opt for a a wait-and-see-approach? Hagan would not have won in 2008 had the DSCC done the latter, but then again 2010 is bound to be very different than 2008 was.

We shall know more about this race in the days ahead. As I wrote above, Etheridge should make an announcement in the days ahead. In fact, The News & Observer reports that he has already told his decision to DSCC officials, who asked him to wait a few days before going public. They add that they’re hearing that he will stick to the House, but the timing of Cunningham’s exit might suggest he heard Etheridge was preparing to enter.

In other North Carolina news, freshman Rep. Larry Kissell’s vote against the healh-care bill is one of those that has raised eyebrows. Not only does he represent a friendlier district than all but 4 of the 39 “no” votes, but about 30% of the district is African-American. That means NC-08’s Democratic voters are less likely to abandon their representative than those of other districts and that Kissell is more dependent on strong base turnout than most incumbents. (The two other freshman Democrats we always hear might suffer the most from low black turnout, Driehaus and Kilroy, both voted “yes.”) What is perhaps most striking is that Kissell was strongly supported by the blogopshere in his unsuccessful 2006 run and his victorious 2008 rematch, which helps explain why his Saturday vote has sparked backlash.