Over the past two days, Arizona Governor Jan Brewer, Minneapolis Mayor R.T. Rybak and attorney Roxane Conlin signaled they would run statewide next year. All of these decisions had come to be expected, but that doesn’t mean they are not important developments in the 2010 landscape.
Iowa emerges as a race to watch
At the beginning of the year, Democrats were hoping that Chuck Grassley would retire. That has not happened, but it looks like the Iowa senator won’t win a sixth term without a fight: Roxane Conlin will reportedly become a Senate candidate in the days ahead. A formidable figure in Iowa politics, Grassley remains the heavy favorite but Conlin gives Democrats a rare chance to score an upset.
While she hasn’t ran for office since her failed gubernatorial bid in… 1982, she remained in the public eye enough that a recent Research 2000 poll found that she was well-known (67% of respondents had an opinion about her, the majority of them favorable). She could also find it easy to amass a substantial bank account: She is very well connected, she would receive large donations from trial lawyers and she could use some of her considerable fortune. If nothing else, it’s good for Democrats to field a contender who would be in a position to benefit from Grassley’s troubles if anti-incumbent sentiment runs high next year.
Conlin’s run also keeps Grassley accountable to the center whereas he had only been acting lately as if all he had to fear was a conservative primary. Another side benefit for Democrats: It could help Governor Chet Culver’s re-election bid by bringing in another Democratic contender who could help turnout the vote - the major challenge facing all of the party’s candidates next year. In fact, Conlin herself admits that the desire to help Culver is a major reason she is entering the race.
Brewer will seek a full term
When Jan Brewer was elevated to the position of Arizona Governor when Janet Napolitano resigned earlier this year, she probably was not imagining that this could end up lowering her prospects of winning the 2010 gubernatorial race. And yet, running as an incumbent governor in this environment is a much tougher proposition than getting through an open race as the sitting Secretary of State.
In fact, Brewer’s trouble reach far deeper than those of most governors. She has had a lot of trouble imposing herself, especially given the budget stalemate that’s opposed her to the (GOP-controlled) legislature and her approval rating is stuck around 30% - a dismal level that makes it hard to see how she can survive next year. And yet, Brewer has chosen to seek a full term in 2010: She just announced her bid yesterday.
Her decision will surely delight Democrats: It will be tough for Brewer to beat Attorney General Terry Goddard, the Democrats’ probable nominee, but it’s less likely that other Republicans (like Treasurer Dean Martin) enter the race if they need to face an incumbent governor in the Republican primary. For now, Paradise Valley Mayor Vernon Parker is Brewer’s main GOP rival; he should be able to mount a credible campaign, but he certainly can’t give Republicans confidence they’ll field the strongest general election contender possible.
A prominent entry in Minnesota’s gubernatorial race
I could an entire blog just covering every new candidate in Minnesota’s gubernatorial race, but the latest entrant is among the highest profile contenders yet: Just a few days after easily securing a third term with 72% of the vote, Minneapolis Mayor R.T. Rybak filed paperwork to seek the DFL’s nomination. Rybak faces a highly competitive primary against prominent politicians like the state Speaker (Margaret Anderson) and a former Senator (Mark Dayton), but his profile ensures that he’ll rise above much of the field.
And yet, Rybak suffered from a failed start to his campaign: Just a day after he e-mailed his supporters to announce a run, the Minnesota Campaign and Finance Disclosure Board ruled that he had used funds from his mayoral campaign for the gubernatorial race, a violation of campaign finance regulations; Minnesota’s Republican Party had filed a complaint. This ruling amounts to little else than a slap on the rest (the board only ordered the gubernatorial committee to reimburse his mayoral committee), but it’s never good for a campaign to see its kickoff marred by such news stories.
Meanwhile, another Midwestern Democratic Mayor is being increasingly pressured to jump in his state’s gubernatorial race: Two weeks after we learned that Barack Obama favored Tom Barrett in Wisconsin, the Milwaukee mayor met with the White House’s political director to discuss a potential run. Don’t forget that, now that Lieutenant Governor Barbara Lawton has dropped out of the race (possibly because of signs from the national establishment), Democrats don’t have much of a choice but to convince Barrett to jump in.
I don’t understand why anybody is taking a 65 year old never was (as opposed to has been) like Roxane Conlin seriously. She doesn’t stand a chance in hell of beating Grassley. If she’s lucky she’ll hold him to 58% of the vote. A trial lawyer who’s only other claim to fame is losing to the guy who’s probably going to beat Chet Culver for Governor is not an attractive resume, no matter how much money all of the John Edwards crew gives to her.
On the other hand, I think Goddard is likely to smash anybody the Republicans put up for Governor. Brewer is totally incapable of beating him and none of the other candidates have anywhere near the stature of Goddard. If Jeff Flake changes his mind and decides to run…Goddard would still be the heavy favorite, but he might make the race competitive. But absent that, Goddard will win easily. And he’ll probably win even if Flake does run.
Cliff:
Roxane Conlin is not a top tier candiate (in deed the only candidate who could really challange Grassley would be Tom Vilsack, but of course he is Agricultural secretary now) but at least she is a credible contender. To hold Grassley to 58% of the vote would indeed be quite an accomplishment after his history of winning by 60% or more. I think in 2004 Grassley won with over 70% of the vote. I would say that if Grassley slips up then Conlin is well positions to take advantage but I agree that as for now this barely manages to be a 2nd tier race, let alone a 1st tier one.
On Arizona I agree that Goddard is the strong favorite if the recent polls are anything to go bye. I don’t know why you think Flake would be stronger than another Republican, doesn’t the GOP have other statewide officals would could be just as strong if not stronger against Goddard than Jeff Flake? On the other hand, with Brewer running for reelection its unlikely someone promient will try to challange her, so that may be a moot point.
I seriously doubt Brewer will win the primary. Signing a bill raising taxes after a long, drawn out battle is one thing. Fighting with the GOP legislature to raise taxes is something else entirely. Especially with the focus on economic issues among the Republican base, she doesn’t stand a chance.
Flake’s expressed interest before and his maverick, against the Leadership style would sell well in ‘10, as would his fiscal conservative hard line stances. That said, I don’t expect him to run. I think he wants to stay in Washington. I expect he’ll run for Senate when (presumably) McCain retires in ‘16, or possibly if Kyl doesn’t run again in ‘12 (highly unlikely). But I do think he’s likely the most formidable candidate Republicans could put up. Low-profile statewide offices don’t usually make great candidates for Governor, at least not as good as a Rep with decent visibility. There are exceptions but in general I think it’s correct.
Goddard will be the next Governor, and I hope he brings some more Democrats to the legislature (McCain’s did a good job last year: he increased the Republican majorities to a 3:2 ratio in both Houses).
But I really hope Flake or Franks isn’t their next Senator. They’re the most libertarian members of Congress (other than Paul, of course). Napolitano could win it, of course, and somebody like those two would help. However, if it’s going to be a Republican, I hope its somebody like Lisa Keegan, for instance.
Well, the filing deadline in Illinois slipped past me, at least.
10th district: Democrats Hamos and Seals will face off, with several minor candidates. Republicans Coulson, Bob Dold and Dick Green will face off, with several minor candidates.
In the 7th, ten Democrats apart from Davis are in; I have no idea how many would back out if he ran.
I’m fairly sure a Biggert retirement can be ruled out now in the 13th.
Foster will avoid another big primary in the 14th (whew).
Nobody is unopposed, but Rush only has D and G opposition and Gutierrez only G.
I really hope Brewer does not win. She just continues to strip away programs and money away from those who need it most. She a part of the wealthy, privledged crowd and has no idea about what it’s like with regular people. She was never voted in to begin with - she got the position by default and I hope she’ll be gone very soon!