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Comments on: Democrats are hoping: Scozzafava endorses Owens, Obama campaigns for Corzine
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http://campaigndiaries.com/2009/11/01/democrats-are-hoping/ Obsessive political analysis Thu, 26 Apr 2018 00:01:25 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.7 hourly 1 By: Guy
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http://campaigndiaries.com/2009/11/01/democrats-are-hoping/comment-page-1/#comment-39682 Guy
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Mon, 02 Nov 2009 20:06:14 +0000
http://campaigndiaries.com/?p=10392#comment-39682 You complain about me making unsubstantiated or incomplete comments. I think some of your recent comments fall into that category. Of course the Dems losing any seat they current hold would not be ideal, but lets remember they have very healthy majorities in the House and Senate. The Senate is completely safe next year and the for the House to fall would take a massive wave, which is unlikely. A lot changes in a year so i wouldn`t be so cocky. But then you haven`t had much to celebrate in the past 3 years what with an incompetent President (Bush), losing the House and Senate (GOP never achieved 60 Senators) and finally losing in a landslide last year in the Presidental election. So it is understandable that you cling to any hope. You complain about me making unsubstantiated or incomplete comments. I think some of your recent comments fall into that category.

Of course the Dems losing any seat they current hold would not be ideal, but lets remember they have very healthy majorities in the House and Senate. The Senate is completely safe next year and the for the House to fall would take a massive wave, which is unlikely. A lot changes in a year so i wouldn`t be so cocky. But then you haven`t had much to celebrate in the past 3 years what with an incompetent President (Bush), losing the House and Senate (GOP never achieved 60 Senators) and finally losing in a landslide last year in the Presidental election. So it is understandable that you cling to any hope.

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By: Cliff
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http://campaigndiaries.com/2009/11/01/democrats-are-hoping/comment-page-1/#comment-39677 Cliff
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Mon, 02 Nov 2009 19:13:35 +0000
http://campaigndiaries.com/?p=10392#comment-39677 Keep telling yourself that Guy. Keep telling yourself that Guy.

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By: Guy
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http://campaigndiaries.com/2009/11/01/democrats-are-hoping/comment-page-1/#comment-39670 Guy
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Mon, 02 Nov 2009 17:48:06 +0000
http://campaigndiaries.com/?p=10392#comment-39670 Cliff - dream on. These are all local races. NY23 is just chaotic (great fun) and is a GOP held seat, so Conservative holds GOP seat is not note-worthy (other than for the chaos). Virginia has for the past 30 years voted for a Governor of the opposite party, so Dems winning in 2001 didn`t herald victory in 2002 or 2004 - keep that in mind New Jersey - a unpopular and discredited incumbent may lose. Christie should be well ahead, so scrapi9ng a victory (by no means certain) would be good for him but not a resounding success. It would not mean NJ is turning Republican anymore than Oklahoma having a Democratic Governor for the past 6 years has turned it Democrat. Cliff - dream on. These are all local races. NY23 is just chaotic (great fun) and is a GOP held seat, so Conservative holds GOP seat is not note-worthy (other than for the chaos).
Virginia has for the past 30 years voted for a Governor of the opposite party, so Dems winning in 2001 didn`t herald victory in 2002 or 2004 - keep that in mind
New Jersey - a unpopular and discredited incumbent may lose. Christie should be well ahead, so scrapi9ng a victory (by no means certain) would be good for him but not a resounding success. It would not mean NJ is turning Republican anymore than Oklahoma having a Democratic Governor for the past 6 years has turned it Democrat.

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By: Nathan
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http://campaigndiaries.com/2009/11/01/democrats-are-hoping/comment-page-1/#comment-39660 Nathan
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Mon, 02 Nov 2009 15:28:55 +0000
http://campaigndiaries.com/?p=10392#comment-39660 Thank you, fritz, for outlining the constellations of stars that must align these days so that a normal human being can be elected to Congress. This race, with all its circumstances, origins and endorsements, perfectly illustrates the most important fault line in modern American politics: not liberal vs. conservative, but party good ol' boy vs. genuine representative. Thank you, fritz, for outlining the constellations of stars that must align these days so that a normal human being can be elected to Congress.

This race, with all its circumstances, origins and endorsements, perfectly illustrates the most important fault line in modern American politics: not liberal vs. conservative, but party good ol’ boy vs. genuine representative.

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By: Jaxx Raxor
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http://campaigndiaries.com/2009/11/01/democrats-are-hoping/comment-page-1/#comment-39656 Jaxx Raxor
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Mon, 02 Nov 2009 14:56:50 +0000
http://campaigndiaries.com/?p=10392#comment-39656 A loss of all 3 races won't turn the WH into "Panic" mode but it will probably give a week or two of bad coverage. Ultimately, none of these off-years are a real indication of whats to come in 2010: In NJ if Corzine wasn't so unpoular it would be an contest, in VA the state has for decades elected the governor from the party not in power in the White House, plus Deeds has actually HURT himself by not aligning with Obama as his loss is equal or more about strong voter apathy with him among Obama voters as it is a deficit with indepedents, and NY-23 of course has the strange dynamics, with Hoffman benefiting from Scozzafava dropping so close to election day, and too little time for Owens to get his numbers to drop among indepedents. Ultimately, we are still a year away from the 2010 elections, but it is Health Care, and not these off year elections which will be a determining factor in the Congressional midterms. The off year elections can have national implications but they are mostly local, but u certainly can't say the same thing about Health Care, and if it doesn't pass then it would make the bad news on the Dems losing all 3 off the off year elections (well there is a CA congressinal special as well but the GOP has no chance to win that) seem like a drop in the bucket. A loss of all 3 races won’t turn the WH into “Panic” mode but it will probably give a week or two of bad coverage. Ultimately, none of these off-years are a real indication of whats to come in 2010: In NJ if Corzine wasn’t so unpoular it would be an contest, in VA the state has for decades elected the governor from the party not in power in the White House, plus Deeds has actually HURT himself by not aligning with Obama as his loss is equal or more about strong voter apathy with him among Obama voters as it is a deficit with indepedents, and NY-23 of course has the strange dynamics, with Hoffman benefiting from Scozzafava dropping so close to election day, and too little time for Owens to get his numbers to drop among indepedents.

Ultimately, we are still a year away from the 2010 elections, but it is Health Care, and not these off year elections which will be a determining factor in the Congressional midterms. The off year elections can have national implications but they are mostly local, but u certainly can’t say the same thing about Health Care, and if it doesn’t pass then it would make the bad news on the Dems losing all 3 off the off year elections (well there is a CA congressinal special as well but the GOP has no chance to win that) seem like a drop in the bucket.

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By: Cliff
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http://campaigndiaries.com/2009/11/01/democrats-are-hoping/comment-page-1/#comment-39651 Cliff
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Mon, 02 Nov 2009 14:17:53 +0000
http://campaigndiaries.com/?p=10392#comment-39651 If Republicans win 2 out of the 3 big races on Tuesday, it'll be a great night. If they win all 3, the WH will instantly enter into panic mode. If Republicans win 2 out of the 3 big races on Tuesday, it’ll be a great night. If they win all 3, the WH will instantly enter into panic mode.

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By: fritz
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http://campaigndiaries.com/2009/11/01/democrats-are-hoping/comment-page-1/#comment-39647 fritz
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Mon, 02 Nov 2009 13:54:59 +0000
http://campaigndiaries.com/?p=10392#comment-39647 This morning I heard a very interesting analysis of this race from Lawrence O'Donnell a pundit I find always informed (although biased). He first pointed out that Hoffman can't vote for himself because he doesn't live in the district. He then he gave some fascinating background on why this is such a crazy race. The reason he gives as to why there are no tier 1 candidates in the race is because the winner will have to immediately start campaigning for the 2010 race; which no matter who wins on Tuesday: they have a good chance of losing. After 2010 the NY23rd is very likely to be redistricted out of existence for the 2012 race. Democrats from neighbouring districts were not keen on a strong Democrat running as it would make it more difficult to redistrict in the Dems favor, if there was a Democrat in NY23rd. No strong Republicans were interested because they knew they was a career dead end. Thus we have the weak Democratic candidate, a Republican who is really a Democrat and a tea party supporter who lives somewhere else. The real loser in this race may be NY23rd. This morning I heard a very interesting analysis of this race from Lawrence O’Donnell a pundit I find always informed (although biased).
He first pointed out that Hoffman can’t vote for himself because he doesn’t live in the district. He then he gave some fascinating background on why this is such a crazy race.
The reason he gives as to why there are no tier 1 candidates in the race is because the winner will have to immediately start campaigning for the 2010 race; which no matter who wins on Tuesday: they have a good chance of losing. After 2010 the NY23rd is very likely to be redistricted out of existence for the 2012 race.
Democrats from neighbouring districts were not keen on a strong Democrat running as it would make it more difficult to redistrict in the Dems favor, if there was a Democrat in NY23rd. No strong Republicans were interested because they knew they was a career dead end.
Thus we have the weak Democratic candidate, a Republican who is really a Democrat and a tea party supporter who lives somewhere else. The real loser in this race may be NY23rd.

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By: Maurice
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http://campaigndiaries.com/2009/11/01/democrats-are-hoping/comment-page-1/#comment-39611 Maurice
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Mon, 02 Nov 2009 08:08:55 +0000
http://campaigndiaries.com/?p=10392#comment-39611 I can't see Scozzafava's remaining Republicans tripping to go to Hoffman, as I don't believe that they are wholly the party-liners. Just the opposites. They are the ones with a favorite daughter, the ones from the union and old-time, real, sensible Republicans, who live more in the era of Eisenhower and Nixon than Goldwater and Reagan. And as we saw with NY-20, the Democrat will take a large share of the Republican vote. Just listen to Tom Reynolds - the state party's still on a steep decline, and it's because they choose the Hoffmans rather than the Walshes or Boehlerts. A large part of the NY Republican party is made up of liberals who are still yearning for the Republican party that once existed. They won't flock to Hoffman. And I don't believe the Independent Party loyalists are Hoffmanites either. The isolation tactic should work. Owens gets Scozz's base, all of the labor now, an overwhelming share of local leaders (several Republican bosses that chose Scozz have endorsed Owens now, and none have for Hoffman, I believe), etc. So if Owens can keep the "independents" from flocking to the polls in uncharacteristically large numbers, he's won. And does anybody know about any mail-in ballots? I can’t see Scozzafava’s remaining Republicans tripping to go to Hoffman, as I don’t believe that they are wholly the party-liners. Just the opposites. They are the ones with a favorite daughter, the ones from the union and old-time, real, sensible Republicans, who live more in the era of Eisenhower and Nixon than Goldwater and Reagan. And as we saw with NY-20, the Democrat will take a large share of the Republican vote. Just listen to Tom Reynolds - the state party’s still on a steep decline, and it’s because they choose the Hoffmans rather than the Walshes or Boehlerts. A large part of the NY Republican party is made up of liberals who are still yearning for the Republican party that once existed. They won’t flock to Hoffman. And I don’t believe the Independent Party loyalists are Hoffmanites either. The isolation tactic should work. Owens gets Scozz’s base, all of the labor now, an overwhelming share of local leaders (several Republican bosses that chose Scozz have endorsed Owens now, and none have for Hoffman, I believe), etc. So if Owens can keep the “independents” from flocking to the polls in uncharacteristically large numbers, he’s won.

And does anybody know about any mail-in ballots?

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