Deprecated: Assigning the return value of new by reference is deprecated in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-settings.php on line 512

Deprecated: Assigning the return value of new by reference is deprecated in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-settings.php on line 527

Deprecated: Assigning the return value of new by reference is deprecated in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-settings.php on line 534

Deprecated: Assigning the return value of new by reference is deprecated in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-settings.php on line 570

Strict Standards: Declaration of Walker_Page::start_lvl() should be compatible with Walker::start_lvl(&$output) in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/classes.php on line 1199

Strict Standards: Declaration of Walker_Page::end_lvl() should be compatible with Walker::end_lvl(&$output) in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/classes.php on line 1199

Strict Standards: Declaration of Walker_Page::start_el() should be compatible with Walker::start_el(&$output) in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/classes.php on line 1199

Strict Standards: Declaration of Walker_Page::end_el() should be compatible with Walker::end_el(&$output) in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/classes.php on line 1199

Strict Standards: Declaration of Walker_PageDropdown::start_el() should be compatible with Walker::start_el(&$output) in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/classes.php on line 1244

Strict Standards: Declaration of Walker_Category::start_lvl() should be compatible with Walker::start_lvl(&$output) in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/classes.php on line 1391

Strict Standards: Declaration of Walker_Category::end_lvl() should be compatible with Walker::end_lvl(&$output) in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/classes.php on line 1391

Strict Standards: Declaration of Walker_Category::start_el() should be compatible with Walker::start_el(&$output) in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/classes.php on line 1391

Strict Standards: Declaration of Walker_Category::end_el() should be compatible with Walker::end_el(&$output) in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/classes.php on line 1391

Strict Standards: Declaration of Walker_CategoryDropdown::start_el() should be compatible with Walker::start_el(&$output) in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/classes.php on line 1442

Strict Standards: Redefining already defined constructor for class wpdb in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/wp-db.php on line 306

Deprecated: Assigning the return value of new by reference is deprecated in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/cache.php on line 103

Strict Standards: Redefining already defined constructor for class WP_Object_Cache in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/cache.php on line 431

Deprecated: Assigning the return value of new by reference is deprecated in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/query.php on line 61

Deprecated: Assigning the return value of new by reference is deprecated in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/theme.php on line 1109

Strict Standards: Declaration of Walker_Comment::start_lvl() should be compatible with Walker::start_lvl(&$output) in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/comment-template.php on line 1266

Strict Standards: Declaration of Walker_Comment::end_lvl() should be compatible with Walker::end_lvl(&$output) in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/comment-template.php on line 1266

Strict Standards: Declaration of Walker_Comment::start_el() should be compatible with Walker::start_el(&$output) in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/comment-template.php on line 1266

Strict Standards: Declaration of Walker_Comment::end_el() should be compatible with Walker::end_el(&$output) in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/comment-template.php on line 1266

Strict Standards: Redefining already defined constructor for class WP_Dependencies in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/class.wp-dependencies.php on line 31

Strict Standards: Redefining already defined constructor for class WP_Http in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/http.php on line 61

Strict Standards: Non-static method K2::init() should not be called statically in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-content/themes/k2/functions.php on line 31

Strict Standards: Non-static method K2::register_scripts() should not be called statically in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-content/themes/k2/app/classes/k2.php on line 51

Strict Standards: call_user_func_array() expects parameter 1 to be a valid callback, non-static method K2Options::init() should not be called statically in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/plugin.php on line 339

Strict Standards: call_user_func_array() expects parameter 1 to be a valid callback, non-static method K2Header::init() should not be called statically in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/plugin.php on line 339

Strict Standards: Non-static method K2Header::get_header_width() should not be called statically in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-content/themes/k2/app/classes/header.php on line 8

Strict Standards: call_user_func_array() expects parameter 1 to be a valid callback, non-static method K2::filter_post_comments() should not be called statically in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/plugin.php on line 166

Strict Standards: array_filter() expects parameter 2 to be a valid callback, non-static method K2::strip_trackback() should not be called statically in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-content/themes/k2/app/classes/k2.php on line 458

Strict Standards: array_filter() expects parameter 2 to be a valid callback, non-static method K2::strip_trackback() should not be called statically in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-content/themes/k2/app/classes/k2.php on line 458

Strict Standards: array_filter() expects parameter 2 to be a valid callback, non-static method K2::strip_trackback() should not be called statically in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-content/themes/k2/app/classes/k2.php on line 458

Strict Standards: array_filter() expects parameter 2 to be a valid callback, non-static method K2::strip_trackback() should not be called statically in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-content/themes/k2/app/classes/k2.php on line 458

Strict Standards: array_filter() expects parameter 2 to be a valid callback, non-static method K2::strip_trackback() should not be called statically in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-content/themes/k2/app/classes/k2.php on line 458

Strict Standards: array_filter() expects parameter 2 to be a valid callback, non-static method K2::strip_trackback() should not be called statically in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-content/themes/k2/app/classes/k2.php on line 458

Strict Standards: array_filter() expects parameter 2 to be a valid callback, non-static method K2::strip_trackback() should not be called statically in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-content/themes/k2/app/classes/k2.php on line 458

Strict Standards: array_filter() expects parameter 2 to be a valid callback, non-static method K2::strip_trackback() should not be called statically in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-content/themes/k2/app/classes/k2.php on line 458

Strict Standards: array_filter() expects parameter 2 to be a valid callback, non-static method K2::strip_trackback() should not be called statically in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-content/themes/k2/app/classes/k2.php on line 458

Strict Standards: array_filter() expects parameter 2 to be a valid callback, non-static method K2::strip_trackback() should not be called statically in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-content/themes/k2/app/classes/k2.php on line 458

Strict Standards: array_filter() expects parameter 2 to be a valid callback, non-static method K2::strip_trackback() should not be called statically in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-content/themes/k2/app/classes/k2.php on line 458

Strict Standards: array_filter() expects parameter 2 to be a valid callback, non-static method K2::strip_trackback() should not be called statically in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-content/themes/k2/app/classes/k2.php on line 458
2009 November Archive at Campaign Diaries
Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Strict Standards: call_user_func_array() expects parameter 1 to be a valid callback, non-static method K2Header::output_header_css() should not be called statically in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/plugin.php on line 339

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003


Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

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Monthly Archive for November, 2009


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Yet another Dem drops out of a House race, but NRCC suffers two recruitment failures

A few days after the DCCC lost state Rep. Todd Book in the OH-02 race, another Democratic candidate has dropped out of a House race: former state Insurance Commissioner Paula Flowers announced she was ending her campaign TN-03, left open by Republican Rep. Zach Wamp’s gubernatorial campaign.

Just like OH-02, TN-03 was a very tough district for Democrats to contest: John McCain got 62% of the vote last year, increasing George W. Bush’s margin of victory by 2%. And yet, the DCCC had enough success in comparatively conservative districts in the past cycle that it seemed possible an open race would become competitive; Flower’s entry was a good sign for Democrats since a former statewide official can be expected to have the campaign skills and the profile to succeed in conservative territory.

Her withdrawal, coupled with state Senator Andy Berke and Chattanooga Mayor Ron Littlefield’s springtime announcements that they wouldn’t run, leaves the GOP in firm command of the race.

At this point, the 2010 cycle is shaping to be favorable enough to Republicans that they probably won’t have to worry about keeping such red districts no matter who Democrats nominate; as such, Flower’s decision (just like Book’s last week) doesn’t really impact the House landscape. But it does speak to decreasing Democratic confidence: The party doesn’t have to buy into the GOP’s excessive optimism to admit that they won’t have as much success on offense as they did in 2006 and in 2008.

That said, the NRCC did suffer through two recruitment failures today.

In TX-17, the reddest district held by a Democrat (John McCain received 67% of the vote), it looks like the GOP will once again fail to field the strongest challenger possible against Rep. Chet Edwards. State Senator Steve Ogden just announced that he would not challenge the ten-term incumbent in what is a top Republican priority. (A reminder: Edwards is a rare Democrat who was targeted by Tom DeLay’s mid-decade redistricting who survived the 2004 elections, which is why he represents such an absurdly hostile district.)

That said, this is one district where it might not matter who the GOP nominates. In 2008, Rob Curnock ran a low-profile campaign but received 46% of the vote; he is now back for a rematch. Edwards has practically no Democratic base to rely on; if conservative voters are as angry as indicators suggest, it will be tough for the congressman to win cross-over support as he always does. After all, Edwards survived the 1990s but this is the first time he’ll have to run for re-election with a Democratic White House since his district was redrawn.

In GA-08, meanwhile, Rep. Jim Marshall has been dodging all the potentially most damaging bullets. This week-end, state Senator Ross Tolleson opened the door to a 2012 run but he announced he would not challenge Marshall next year. (Note that Marshall happens to be one of the most conservative House Democrats, so this is one case in which Blue Dogs are not vaulting to the top of the NRCC’s target list.)

The GOP has other candidates in the race (notably businesswoman Angela Hicks and a former county party chairman) but Marshall has proved an elusive enough target that he should be able to dispatch non top-tier opposition - unless the environment is very toxic for Democrats, but we aren’t there yet and in that case Republican recruitment could matter little anyway. It is true that Marshall had a very close call in 2006, but that race intervened just after Georgia Republicans (inspired by their Texas colleagues) had redrawn his district.

In both GA-08 and TX-17, redistricting could soonafter change the district’s make-up. At the moment, the GOP controls the process in both states, so even if they fail to pick-up either seat they could be in a position to make these districts even tougher to hold for a Democrat. (In this scenario, stakes are lowered for the 2010 House results since GOP takeovers would be likely in the years ahead.) Yet, Democrats could pick-up Georgia’s governorship or the Texas House next year; that would give them a voice in the redrawing process and force an incumbent-protection map; as such, if the GOP fails to pick-up the seats next year it could become harder for them to do so in the future.

And another potential headache is emerging for the NRCC in NJ-03: Just a few days after I wrote that it was up to football player Jon Runyan to show he has the political skills to be a serious candidate, he confirmed that rookie candidates are risks when he contradicted the statement he had issued shortly before, denied he was committed to challenging Rep. Adler and added he was only “exploring his options.” His spokesperson has since said that was meant in jest (?!), but this only confirms it might not be the best idea for Runyan to go back to the NFL until the season is over and thus launching his campaign.


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In MA, Coakley remains the front-runner but rivals hope final week brings big movement

There is only one week left before the Democratic primary in the special election to fill Teddy Kennedy’s Senate seat, and we might be getting a competitive race after all.

Since the campaign started, Attorney General Martha Coakley has indisputably been the front-runner; she had the most buzz and an inevitability aura, enjoyed a fundraising edge and a massive lead in polls. But the past few weeks have found her rivals’ gaining steam; Coakley remains the clear favorite, but anything can happen in a 4-way race that has stayed low-profile and should be decided by low turnout: A recent poll found that only 22% of Democrats could even identify that the primary would take place in December, let alone the exact date!

Add this to the fact that primaries can be far more fluid than general elections, since far fewer voters will be committed to a camp, and we could see a lot of movement in the closing days. (The situation is analogous to what happened in June in Virginia: After months in which polls found 3 candidates who were essentially tied, Creigh Deeds caught fire in the final two weeks and ended with an unexpectedly decisive victory.)

In fact, last week’s Boston Globe poll found that only 26% of likely voters were certain of who they would vote for, with 50% describing themselves as undecided. Most Democratic voters have been waiting to make up their mind, which heightens the stake of the closing week: The coverage candidates receive in the days ahead will be very important in determining whether an upset might be brewing.

The latest poll of the race, released last week by Rasmussen, found Coakley ahead, but enjoying her smallest lead yet: She receives 36%, Mike Capuano is at 21%, Steve Pagliuca is at 14%, as is Alan Khazei - the first time the latter candidate breaks single-digits.

Indeed, Khazei has been enjoying a surprising amount of momentum in the past 10 days because his efforts to position himself as the good-government reform appear to be paying off: He is emerging as the candidate for voters looking for the type of “post-partisan” figure Capuano certainly isn’t trying to embody. His latest ad has him making a process-argument to bring “change” to Washington; and after securing the backing of New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg, Khazei just received the somewhat unexpected endorsement of the Boston Globe.

The Globe not only embraced Khazei’s “entrepreneurial model of progressive politics” that distances itself both from Reaganite distrust of government and from liberals’ embrace of government (this reminds me of Barack Obama’s controversial comments on Reagan during in early 2008), but also harshly criticized the other candidates. At the very least, The Globe’s endorsement should guarantee that the many voters who are only now looking to make up their mind take a look at Khazei, whereas otherwise they might have overlooked him.

But Capuano can claim momentum of his own. If the Globe’s endorsement should help Khazei get a share of the spotlight, Capuano is enjoying his own string of high-profile endorsements. First, Speaker Nancy Pelosi backed him; then, it was state First Lady Diane Patrick’s turn; and over this past week-end, former Governor Michael Dukakis endorsed him, citing in particular the “courage” of his 2002 vote against the Iraq war. (While Governor Patrick is unpopular among the electorate at large, polls have found he has kept a strong grounding among the base and there is little reason to think his wife’s backing should hurt Capuano.)

Capuano has also drawn Coakley into a terrain he feels comfortable on: A race to the left, in which he is well-positioned to get the upper-hand due to his flawlessly left-wing congressional record. Coakley announced two weeks ago that she would vote against the health-care bill if it included the Stupak amendment, she just released a statement that sharply criticized Obama’s apparent decision to escalate the war in Afghanistan; Capuano just hit Coakley on issues like her past defense of the Patriot Act.

But that also speaks to the fact that Coakley had the good sense not to simply try to protect her lead (an always risky strategy for a candidate who voters don’t know that well). While her views on most polarizing issues were not known, she chose to clarify them rather than stay above the fray - something front-runners sometimes think they can dispense with. And yet, she does not appear to have committed any unforced error, which could be all she needs to win on December 8th.

As for Steve Pagliuca, the race has remained tight enough that he can hope that his immense fortune will carry him to a plurality victory; he could also be helped by the fact that Coakley and Capuano have devoted most of their attention on attacking each other, which allows him to push under the rug things that should disqualify him in Massachussetts’s Democratic primary - for instance his donations to Mitt Romney’s 1994 senatorial campaign (against Kennedy) and to George W. Bush’s 2000 presidential campaign.

It’s impossible to tell whether anything will break through the media coverage and shake up the race in the closing days or whether voters will remain unconvinced but stagnant. The Boston Herald, for instance, suggests Capuano was the clear winner of this morning’s online debate, but how many voters will see any footage? There will be two televised debates this week, but how many viewers will tune in? And next week’s primary will most likely determine the general election winner, and yet how many Democrats will show up?


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Weekly 2010 update: New conservative candidates emerge in AR, OR and NH

Thanksgiving week was anything but quiet on the electoral front. Rep. Dennis Moore’s unexpected decision to retire created one of House Democrats’ biggest headache of the cycle; Houston Mayor Bill White gave Texas Democrats hope they might a shot at the Governor’s Mansion; two new politicians emerged as potential primary challengers to Kirsten Gillibrand; and Tom Tancredo opted out of the Governor’s race, choosing instead to help rally the party around Scott McInnis.

In Arkansas, the field of Republicans looking to take on on Blanche Lincoln has grown again: former state Senator Jim Holt, who lost to Lincoln by 12% in 2004 before failing in the 2006 open race for Lieutenant Governor, is reportedly preparing to jump in. Despite his relatively short tenure in the legislature, Holt is a force; known as a staunch conservative (he focused his prior statewide campaigns on gay marriage and immigration), he would be a top competitor for Republicans who’re already running. That’s sure to worry the NRSC: Arkansas might be conservative, but Holt would not be as much of a threat. Interestingly, his entry could be a test for Huckabee’s standing in the state: the former Governor is very close to Gilbert Baker and Curtis Coleman, while Holt is known as a critic.

Another candidate the GOP establishment could do without popped up in Oregon: Conservative activist Bill Sizemore announced he would run for Governor. Sizemore has been a fixture in state politics for more than a decade, as he has organized numerous anti-tax initiatives - many of them were successful. But he has been involved in numerous controversies - including racketeering allegations, investigations into his business dealings and even a jail sentence for contempt of court. Some of these were already around in 1998, when he lost the gubernatorial race 64% to 30%; if he ends up in the general election next year (which he might due to his conservative credentials, though Allen Alley has enough funds he remains favored) he would be hard pressed to be competitive.

Yet another conservative activist who’s looking at 2010 is Karen Testerman, who’s now exploring a run for Governor in New Hampshire. State Republicans have no candidate to field against John Lynch, so Testerman’s entry could be a good thing for the party: Having a gubernatorial nominee who can help turn out the party base would help the GOP over in the Senate race, especially if Kelly Ayotte wins the primary and continues to have problems with her right.

Finally, there are only four Republicans left in the Connecticut Senate race: state Senator Sam Caligiuri, the first candidate who jumped in the race, is also the first to drop out. While he was a promising contender back when Chris Dodd didn’t look as vulnerable as he does now, he did not have a big enough profile - nor a large enough bank account - to satisfy the GOP in what has become one of the party’s top priorities. (Caligiuri is running for the House instead, though he’ll have to get through another tough primary for the right to challenge Rep. Murphy in a district Obama won by 14%.) Former Ambassador Tom Foley is also considering dropping out, perhaps to run for Governor.

As always, I list all the changes I have logged in during the week to the “retirement watch” and recruitment pages. Written in red are those politicians who announced their definite plans rather than simply expressed interest or stroke speculation. First, updates to Retirement Watch:

Will retire Rep. Dennis Moore (KS-03)
Will not retire Rep. Greg Walden (OR-02)

Second, updates to the Senate recruitment page:

AR-Sen, GOP former state Sen. Jim Holt added
CT-Sen, GOP state Senator Sam Caligiuri dropped out
NY-Sen, Dem former Rep. Harold Ford Jr. added to list
NY-Sen, GOP Larchmont Mayor Liz Feld added to list

Third, updates to gubernatorial races:

AZ-Gov, GOP Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio added
CO-Gov, GOP former Rep. Tom Tancredo ruled out run
CT-Gov, GOP former Ambassador Tom Foley added to list
NH-Gov, GOP conservative activist Karen Testerman “exploring” run
OR-Gov, GOP conservative activist Bill Sizemore announced run
former Rep. Greg Walden ruled out run
TX-Gov, Dem former Ambassador Tom Schieffer dropped out

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Gubernatorial polls confirm many questions left to answer in WI, AZ and NV

NC: Marshall might be ignored, but she starts with wide primary lead

The post’s title might allude to gubernatorial contests, but let’s start with a Senate poll. In recent weeks, I have repeatedly marveled at the way in which national Democrats and the national media have treated Secretary of State Elaine Marshall as a minor-league candidate. Few journalists have been as determined to ignore her as the Washington Post’s Chris Cillizza, who did it again this week by writing that managing to answer an entire question about Burr’s re-election prospects without once mentioning Marshall. “My guess is that Democrats wind up with Cal Cunningham as their candidate,” he wrote.

That would be an acceptable statement if he at least acknowledged that it would require Cunningham to succeed at beating Marshall, which a new PPP poll (conducted for the Marshall campaign) finds would require quite a come-from-behind effort: The Secretary of State leads the primary with 42% of the vote, with attorney Kenneth Lewis getting 7% (14% among African-American voters) and Cunningham receiving 5%.

As with any internal survey, this should be taken with a grain of salt. Also, these numbers do not show that Marshall has the race locked-up: Given her prominent position, her failure to get to 50% against two low-profile opponents suggests she could be vulnerable. Yet, it’s hard not to portray her as the clear frontrunner to get the nod whether or not Cunningham runs (especially since he would have to fight with Lewis for undecided voters’ attention). This gets to what I fail to understand about the DSCC’s attitude: Even if we grant that others would be stronger general election candidates, the odds that Democrats will have to target Burr with Marshall are significant enough that telegraphing distrust is a bizarre strategy.

Wisconsin: Might Thompson’s entry hurt the GOP?

So much for Tommy Thompson as the GOP’s dream candidate! A few days after it showed Russ Feingold leading the former Governor 50% to 41%, PPP released the gubernatorial part of its Wisconsin poll, finding that Thompson with meaningfully weaker numbers than two other Republicans when matched-up with Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett, the Democrats’ presumptive nominee: Barrett is tied with Milwaukee County Executive Scott Walker, 40% to 40%; against former Rep. Mark Neumann, Barrett edges ahead 41% to 39%; but against Thompson, Barrett grabs a lead outside of the margin of error: 41% to 36%.

That’s nothing dramatic, of course, but keeping in mind that Thompson is the highest-profile of these 4 candidates, the fact that he receives the lowest level of support is very significant - and it makes Feingold’s hold on his Senate seat look all the more solid: While the GOP is running strong candidates in the Governor’s race, Thompson is at this point the only prominent Republican who’s considering challenging Feingold.

The poll’s bottom line is that the race will be a toss-up whether the GOP nominates Walker or Neumann, and we should expect it to stay that way all the way through November 2010. While the results don’t allow us to test Barrett’s strength relatively to other Democrats (especially to Lieutenant Governor Barbara Lawton), they do confirm that Doyle’s decision not to seek re-election is one retirement Democrats have no reason to lament because Doyle had grown too unpopular to have much of a chance to win next year. This latest poll finds his approval rating at 29% - that’s approaching Gibbons-Paterson level.

Arizona: What if Joe Arpaio jumps in?

Arizona’s gubernatorial race looks confusing enough given how vulnerable incumbent Jan Brewer looks in the Republican primary, but Rasmussen decided to test a scenario that has been the source of some rumors lately: What if Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio, hero of the anti-immigration hard-right, jumps in the Governor’s race? The poll’s answer: He would be overwhelmingly favorite to win not only the GOP nomination but also the entire prize!

In a primary, Arpaio crushes his well-known rivals with 47% of the vote; Treasurer Dean Martin gets 22% and Governor Jan Brewer only 10%, with 6% going to John Munger and Vernon Parker. That’s right, the incumbent is barely registering in double-digits in her party’s primary, leaving no doubt that she is under huge threat of losing the nomination even if Arpaio doesn’t run. In the general election, Arpaio leads Attorney General Terry Goddard 51% to 39%, a margin that’s all the more decisive when compared to Goddard’s 40% to 38% edge against Martin and his 44% to 35% lead against Brewer.

An Arizona State University poll also released this week confirmed that the GOP could very well be doomed if Brewer somehow makes it to general election: Goddard crushes her 47% to 28%. The survey also tested the Senate race, finding that McCain would start with a 50% to 41% lead over Napolitano - a surprisingly decisive margin that we can’t just explain by the sample’s GOP bias since the same respondents give Goddard a 21% lead in the gubernatorial race. Given that Democrats have no one nearly as prominent as Napolitano to field, this suggests McCain might not be as vulnerable as thought.

Nevada: Waiting for Goodman

In testing Nevada’s gubernatorial race, The Nevada News Bureau chose to only run one scenario: A 3-way race between Republican Brian Sandoval, Las Vegas Oscar Goodman (as an independent) and Democrat Rory Reid. The result is a disaster for the latter, as he trails both his rivals: Sandoval gets 35%, Goodman 28% and Reid closes the march with 21%. Reid’s results can certainly not be attributed to a deficit in name recognition, so there’s little conclusion to draw other than it’s going to be though for Reid to win the general election no matter who he faces since he has to share the spotlight with his unpopular and embattled father.

But the poll leaves a big question unanswered: What happens if Goodman runs as a Democrat rather than as an independent? I don’t believe any poll has tested that possibility for now, though it would be interesting to see the results. This poll gives an indication as to why the mayor might be looking to run as an independent - 49% of his supporters are Democrats and 36% are Republicans - but it’s hard to draw conclusions when other match-ups were not tested. Of course, Goodman hasn’t even decided to run at all.


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Gillibrand faces second wave of potential challenges

Kirsten Gillibrand’s appointment to the Senate was met with such outrage among ambitious state politicians, liberal Democrats and Hispanic groups that it would have been unfathomable that she would be mostly unchallenged as 2009 drew to a close.

A combination of factors (Gillibrand’s move leftward, which quite literally occurred overnight and gradually helped her win over some progressive critics, for instance Jerrold Nadler; the White House and Chuck Schumer’s intervention on her behalf; Democratic congressmen’s reluctance to leave safe House seats for a tough statewide race) made her look like a less compelling target, and one by one her would-be challengers dropped out: Reps. Steve Israel, Carolyn Maloney, Carolyn McCarthy, Jose Serrano and Manhattan Borough President Scott Stinger.

Yet, there is now a new wave of politicians looking at challenging Gillibrand. If those I mentioned above justified their interest by arguing that New York should have a liberal senator, what might now be driving others to take a look at the race is simply the realization that Gillibrand is vulnerable.

11 months after her appointment, and despite arguments that her media savvy would help her build a strong standing as she introduces herself to voters, polls are finding that Gillibrand is growing unpopular. Marist has found her approval rating declining month by month, with their latest survey finding her at a dismal 25-51; Siena and SUSA find her rating to be stronger but negative (33-45 and 41-42, respectively). This has some Democrats arguing that it would be risky to send Gillibrand to the general election, especially if Rudy Giuliani does jump in the Senate race (most people remain as skeptic that he will as they were before The Daily News reported he was set on running); and even if the general election isn’t competitive, at least Gillibrand no longer looks like as formidable a candidate as she was presented to be earlier this year.

Exhibit A of this shift is the jaw-dropping news that former Rep. Harold Ford Jr. (who ran for Senate in 2006… in Tennessee) is considering running in the Democratic primary. I think most people thought this was a joke when they first heard about it earlier this week, but Politico sourced some associates willing to confirm that Ford was at least mulling the possibility and Crain’s secured some evidence that someone has been running a poll testing Ford’s viability.

Why this development is so surprising: Not only is it rare for a politician to run for Congress in two different states - especially at a small interval - but it would mean that Gillibrand would receive a primary challenge from the right! (Who would have predicted that in January 2009?) Ford was a member of the Blue Dog Coalition while in the House; so was Gillibrand, of course, but Ford’s senatorial ambitions only led him further to the right since he was running in a Southern state. Since he left Congress, he has presided over the centrist Democratic Leadership Council, which is certainly not dear to progressives’ hearts. Might Ford be hoping to win the African-American vote, which would remedy some of the harm he’d suffer from his ideological positioning?

I have trouble seeing how Ford could find a path at victory - NYC’s black leaders would be unlikely to rally around his candidacy, he’d end up rallying liberals around Gillibrand and upstate counties are where Gillibrand was expected to be strongest in a primary - but it would certainly be a race worth watching.

Perhaps more worrisome for Gillibrand is the possibility that New York City Comptroller William Thompson might set his sights on the Senate after his unexpectedly narrow defeat in this month’s mayoral race. It all started with Rep. Jose Serrano (one of Gillibrand’s last House critics left since Nadler endorsed her and since McCarthy started working with her on gun control) circulating Thompson’s name as a potential candidate. “He is a progressive voice that hasn’t moved one way or the other over the years, and people would respect that,” Serrano said. This led The Daily News’s Liz Benjamin and The New York Times to confirm that he was indeed mulling the race - among other 2010 options - and Thompson himself was coy about the possibility when asked about it this week.

Due to his limited resources in this year’s race, Thompson did not have the opportunity to build the strongest campaign infrastructure but he did receive 46% of the general election vote (506,717 votes) after coasting to victory in the Democratic primary. Sure, Thompson has only ran in NYC elections, but don’t forget the vast majority of votes in 2006’s state primary came from the city: This is where many of the state’s Democratic voters are, and most just cast a ballot for Thompson. The comptroller could seek to mobilize African-Americans and progressives - if he can convince them that Gillibrand’s leftward turn should not be trust. Furthermore, the coverage he has received in the aftermath of the finish has arguably more helpful to his image than what he had able to secure before the election, and many of the city’s Democratic leaders will at the very least be weary of underestimating him.

In particular, Thompson is a rare Democrat who could be immune to pressure from the Democratic establishment: Given the extent to which the White House and the state’s party leaders ignored him throughout 2009. Much has been made of Obama’s remaining as distant as was possible, of Christin Quinn’s late endorsement, of the congresspeople who endorsed Bloomberg; given the result, it’s very plausible that Thompson would have prevailed had just some of these Democrats rallied by his side, helped him gain media coverage and raise money. As such, why would Thompson be as receptive as Israel and Maloney were to a phone-call from Obama or Schumer. (The Times remarks that Obama’s recent intervention against Paterson could make it harder for the White House to openly block Thompson.)

Gillibrand’s weak numbers and these primary rumors are continuing to drive GOP interest. Pataki was long the only name mentioned, which is why the news that Giuliani was leaning towards the Senate race took even Republicans by surprise. Another name that is now circulating: Larchmont Mayor Liz Feld is in the process of deciding whether she’ll jump in. She is far from the Republicans’ dream candidate (Larchmont is a small town, and she recently lost a state Senate race) but the GOP would be guilty of political malpractice if it did not field some credible candidate.


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Dem candidates drop out in OH-02 and VA-10, but another releases competitive poll in FL-12

When Rep. Adam Putnam abruptly announced his retirement early in 2009, FL-12 did not vault at the top of the Democrats’ priority list: While it had only gone for John McCain by 1%, George W. Bush had prevailed by double-digits in both 2000 and 2004. Yet, Democrats started paying attention when Polk County Supervisor of Elections Laure Edwards announced her candidacy: Not only has won re-election in red-leaning Polk County since 2000, but she also served as a state representative for much of the 1990s.

Last week, Edwards sought to prove that the worsening political climate shouldn’t cause Democrats to give up on FL-12 by releasing an internal poll, conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner: It shows Edwards leading former state Rep. Dennis Ross 46% to 42%.

This is an internal poll, so it should be taken with a grain of salt; in particular, there doesn’t seem to be a clear explanation as to why Ross was the only opponent tested or whether match-ups pitting Edwards against other Republicans who’ve declared their candidacy (for instance Polk County Commissioner Randy Wilkinson) yielded worse results that were not released. Yet, the poll suggests that Edwards will at the very least be competitive; if nothing else, it should help her draw national Democrats’ attention, perhaps getting the DCCC to commission a poll of its own and generally get more involved.

That FL-12 would be competitive makes sense. The district is described as hostile to Democrats based on the 2000 and 2004 results, and the 2008 tie is dismissed as due to exceptional turnout patterns that won’t hold in 2010. But I explained in October that FL-12 has gone through big demographic changes over the past decade that suggest Obama’s gains will be long-lasting rather than ephemeral: In 2000, 72% of FL-12’s residents were white while in 2008, 63% were white (we are talking about residents here, not voters, so this isn’t about turnout).

Two Democratic recruits drop out in Ohio and in Virginia

Despite OH-02’s red lean, Democrats have dreamed of taking it over ever since the controversial Jean Schmidt became the GOP’s flag-bearer. Yet, they’ve fallen short cycle after cycle - and it looks like Schmidt might not even face that tough a general election this time. State Rep. Todd Book, whose entry a few months ago was celebrated by Democrats, is now withdrawing from the race. Sure, the race always looked tough for the party to pull off: In a district that gave John McCain 59%, how could they succeed in 2010 if they failed in 2006 and 2008? But Book is term-limited out of the state House in 2010, so it’s not like he was giving up his legislative seat for a run against Schmidt.

The Democratic primary is now in the hands of David Krikorian, who received 18% in 2008 as an independent. Whether or not the campaign is tight (Krikorian’s impressive showing as an independent suggests he has an audience in the district), it should be explosive since Schmidt and Krikorian have a lot of history: The two have faced off in court last summer after Schmidt sued Krikorian after the latter charged that she had received “blood money” in exchange for denying the Armenian Genocide.

Lawyer Patrick Lewis, the candidate who dropped out of VA-10, was not as highly touted by national Democrats but his withdrawal is no less frustrating: When the cycle started, the party had hopes for a Northern Virginia district that voted for Obama by 7% after giving Bush double-digit victories. Yet, much of it was predicated on Wolf retiring (he is 70). That’s apparently not happening, and the GOP should hold on to VA-10 next year.

… while GOP lands one in NJ-03

Rep. John Adler represents a swing district (NJ-03 voted for Obama by 5% in 2008, for Bush by only 2% in 2004) but he at times behaves like it’s staunchly conservative territory; 2 weeks ago, he was one of only 8 Democrats representing Obama districts to vote against the health-care bill, and one of 6 to do so from the right. Starting this week, he will at least be able to point out he’s facing a credible opponent: Jon Runyan, who used to play for the Philadelphia Eagles, has informed local GOP leaders he’s running for Congress.

The twist: Runyan is first going back to football. Just this week, he signed on with the San Diego Chargers, which means that he will not be able to engage in political activities until the NFL season is over. Sure, the season will end early enough that he should have time to prepare for the GOP’s June primary but this is still a bizarre decision: Runyan has no political experience, has never ran for office and will presumably need to brush up his hold on issues and his campaign skills before launching himself in a race. Heath Shuler, who transitioned from NFL quarterback to Congress, did not do so in a matter of weeks.

While the burden is on Runyan to prove he can appeal to voters in a political sense, he is the sort of candidate - big name, rugged looks - that national parties are often attracted to. (In 2006, The Washington Post devoted an incomprehensibly long article to the good looks of top Democratic recruits, all of them male.) That should ensure that the NRCC pays a lot of attention to his campaign, which will help him avoid rookie mistakes, target the incumbent and access the party’s fundraising network. Adler-Runyan is a race we’ll hear about again.


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Greg Walden and Tom Tancredo rule out gubernatorial runs

Late last week, Rep. Greg Walden announced that he would run for re-election, a blow to Republican chances of contesting Oregon’s gubernatorial race. In his absence, the GOP primary will be headlined by entrepreneur Allen Alley and by former state Senator John Lim; former NBA player Chris Dudley has formed an exploratory committee, so he could still jump in.

Walden had long since entertained the possibility that he could run for statewide, which would have given the GOP a high-profile recruit against the Democratic primary’s all-star cast: former Secretary of State Bill Bradbury and former Governor John Kitzhaber are going head-to-head, while Rep. Peter DeFazio has yet to rule out jumping in the race. (Conventional wisdom is still one of skepticism that DeFazio might abandon his relatively safe and increasingly influential position in the House for such a difficult tough primary; but every time state observers are preparing to cross him out, the progressive Democrat is reiterating his interest in the race and insisting he could still jump in.)

Whoever Democrats nominate will now be clearly favored in the general election. That’s not to say that Republicans won’t have a shot at victory, but it will be an uphill climb. Lim is now 73 (rarely an age at which a candidate can be so gripping as to get voters to go against their traditional allegiances), while Dudley will have to demonstrate he has the political skills necessary to be taken seriously by voters (there are plenty of examples of sports player successfully entering politics, but such a transition can never be taken for granted). That leaves us with Alley, who actually performed well in his 2008 campaign for state Treasurer: He lost 51% to 45%, which means he significantly outperformed John McCain.

Walden’s decision has little consequence in the battle for the House: OR-02 is a heavily Republican district (it voted for Bush by 23% in 2004 and it went for McCain by 11% last year). Had Walden retired in a 2006-like environment and Democrats might have had a shot at winning it, but for him to leave the seat open next year wouldn’t have been a big headache for the NRCC.

Meanwhile, another Republican bowed out of a Governor’s race but this time, Democrats are the one who are disappointed.

Two weeks ago, the news that former Rep. Tom Tancredo was preparing to jump in Colorado’s gubernatorial race had threatened to completely alter the way race’s outlook. At worst for the GOP, Tancredo would have won the primary, transforming the general election on a referendum on his controversial persona and extremist rhetoric rather than on Governor Bill Ritter’s record; at best, the establishment would have powered former Rep. Scott McInnis through, but he would have emerged wounded, bruised up and unsure of benefiting from a united base.

But those worries dissipated as quickly as they appeared: McInnis’s nemeses rallied by his side this week-end. First, state Senator John Penry (who just dropped out of the Governor’s race two weeks ago) endorsed him; then, we learned that Tancredo was not only pulling the plug on a statewide run, but that he was preparing to back McInnis as well!

We can now be all but certain that the general election will pit Ritter to McInnis, a highly competitive match-up since the challenger has been narrowly ahead in recent polls.

These unexpected developments occurred after Penry and Tancredo convinced McInnis to adhere to a conservative platform (entitled “Platform for Prosperity”) that the three politicians devised with the help of other Republicans. In an unlikely show of party unity given how divided Colorado Republicans looked recently (and to some level have looked for years), the platform’s unveiling was also attended by former Governor Bill Owens.

As such, Colorado’s intraparty fight will have had the most ideal resolution the Republican establishment can dream of: It got its choice pick, it did so peacefully and the party’s conservative wing emerged satisfied since it got some concession. Perhaps McInnis will get a call from Jane Norton in the days ahead; she surely would like such a resolution to the tough Senate primary that’s shaping up between her, Ken Buck and Tom Wiens.

Since we’re on the subject of Governor’s races: I shall have new gubernatorial rankings out shortly, probably early next week.


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Checking in with Democratic senators who aren’t (yet?) GOP priorities

In recent weeks, Republicans have seen their prospects improve in a number of Senate races. 7 seats that Democrats must defend now look genuinely competitive: Nevada, Arkansas, Connecticut, Delaware, Colorado, Illinois and Pennsylvania? Can the NRSC put even more seats in play? New polls from the 4 Democratic seats that I currently rate “likely retention” (California, North Dakota, New York and Wisconsin) suggest it’s possible in some, less so in others.

(At the moment, there is no conceivable way for Indiana, Maryland, New York’s Schumer seat, Oregon, Vermont and Washington become vulnerable. Despite some early talk about a possible Inouye retirement and a potential Lingle candidacy, neither prospect is attracting any buzz so Hawaii looks safe as well.)

For the DSCC, the best news comes from Wisconsin: A week after Tommy Thompson opened the door to an electoral comeback in 2010, PPP finds that Senator Russ Feingold would easily survive a challenge by the former Governor: In what is the GOP’s dream match-up, the Democrat leads by a solid 50% to 41% margin. Feingold’s approval rating is far from formidable (45-37), but Thompson is too unpopular to topple an entrenched incumbent: His favorability rating stands at 38-45. Feingold leads two little-known Republicans (Terrence Wall and Dave Westlake) by 14% and 15%, though he is just below 50% in both match-ups.

More reassuring news for Democrats in California: Rasmussen finds Barbara Boxer leading Carly Fiorina (46% to 37%) and Chuck DeVore (46% to 36%). That doesn’t mean Boxer is safe (any incumbent under 50% is deemed vulnerable) but at the moment Democrats don’t have much reason to worry about the Golden State. For one, Rasmussen’s California surveys have consistently found more GOP-friendly results than has the Field Poll, generally considered the golden standard of California polling. Second, Boxer’s approval rating remains solid enough (51% to 41%) that it’s tough to envision the state’s Democratic-leaning electorate might consider voting for a Republican: Corzine’s approval rating was stuck in the 30s, and even he managed to come close.

This doesn’t mean that Thompson’s entry would not make Wisconsin a must-watch race or that Fiorina will not end up catch fire (after all, a University of Wisconsin poll released in October found Thompson leading Feingold, 43% to 39%); both Wisconsin and California could still become headaches for the DSCC. Yet, what’s clear is that Feingold and Boxer are in a stronger position going forward than Kirsten Gillibrand and Byron Dorgan, who would quickly vault to the top of the list of endangered incumbents if the NRSC manages to recruit its top candidates.

There’s been enough discussion of the confusion surrounding Rudy Giuliani’s 2010 plans that I don’t need to provide much detail about New York’s situation. While convincing arguments can be made that the former mayor will not end up as strong as he polls and that he has repeatedly proven himself a poor campaigner, the bottom-line for now is that a general election between Giuliani and Gillibrand would start as a toss-up at best. A Marist poll released last week found Giuliani) would start with a 54% to 40% lead (if she were to face George Pataki, Gillibrand would trail by a less dramatic 47% to 45%; by comparison, Zogby’s new survey finds the senator far stronger (she only Giuliani trails 45% to 43% and she leads Pataki 43% to 38%), but it’s nothing for her to boast about.

As for North Dakota, a Zogby poll released over the week-end explains why the GOP is so eager to recruit Governor John Hoeven, who has reportedly accepted to think about the race. The survey finds that he would start with a 55% to 36% lead against Senator Byron Dorgan. The poll leaves no doubt that Dorgan’s vulnerability entirely stems from Hoeven’s strength: The incumbent’s favorability rating stands at an extremely solid 73% (a number most incumbents would die for) and he crushes low-profile Republican Dune Sand 60% to 28%, demonstrating that North Dakotans aren’t at all desperate to dump their senator. The trouble comes from the fact that nearly every respondent likes Hoeven, whose favorability is an absurd 93%.

Frankly, these favorability ratings should make us take this poll with a big grain of salt. Mountain States incumbents are known to remain very popular, but can Hoeven’s favorability rating really be 93%? My skepticism was increased when I saw another Zogby poll, which finds Maine’s two Senators with ridiculously high favorability ratings. I don’t doubt Snowe is popular but 84% in no way matches what other recent polls have found.

So how does Zogby’s poll compare to other North Dakota surveys? A summer poll conducted by a Republican firm found Hoeven leading by a similar margin (53% to 36%) but a Research 2000 released all the way back in February had the Democrat ahead by 22%. In short: If Hoeven jumps in we’ll certainly need to see more polling data before proclaiming him the frontrunner, but probably not to consider Dorgan endangered.


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Houstor Mayor Bill White is considering switching to Governor’s race

With Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison no longer certain (to say the least) to resign, the top-tier campaign Houston Mayor Bill White is mounting to run for a hypothetical Senate vacancy is starting to look like a waste for Democrats. If Hutchison ends up staying in Congress until her term is up for 2012, what good will it do for Democrats to have lined up two credible Senate contenders while struggling to produce an electable candidate in the Governor’s race?

The situation might soon be remedied - but, contrary to early reports, it’s far from a done deal. After spending weeks adamantly denying that he might switch races, Bill White declared in a press conference today that he was considering dropping out of the (non-existent) Senate contest and running for Governor. He would make his decision known by December 4th - next Friday.

(In somewhat of a repeat of last week’s Giuliani confusing, reports initially suggested that White was sure to run for Governor. What seems to have initially prompted overtly definitive write-ups was former Ambassador Tom Schieffer’s withdrawal from the race, which got people wondering whether he was making room for a more prominent Democrat; Schieffer’s decision to all but endorse White in his press conference and the fact that the mayor’s campaign is no longer issuing clear rebuttals did the rest.)

Why might White be interested in switching races? Beyond the fact that it’s no longer even clear whether he’d have any Senate election to run for, the bottom-line is that his odds of winning the gubernatorial race are far stronger now that Governor Rick Perry looks slightly favored to win the GOP primary.

For months, conventional wisdom was that Hutchison would wrestle the nomination away from the incumbent and there is little doubt that she would be a far more formidable general election candidate. Yet, Perry’s continual moves rightward combined with the Republican electorate’s mood have now given him a small edge in most primary polls - but he should be more vulnerable in the general election. First, he’ll have to run as an incumbent and defend the record in the midst of an economic crisis. Second, his extremism should create trouble with moderate Republicans and independents: That Perry alienates most voters who aren’t part of the GOP base was evident in 2006, when he won re-election with only 38% of the vote in a 4-way race.

Combine all of this with the fact that Texans are more likely to vote Democratic in a local race than in a federal one (this would be true in any cycle, but it’s even more so the case when the national environment favors Republicans), and it makes perfect sense for White to want to run for Governor.

His entry would be a game changer in state politics, and it would make Texas host a top-tier Governor’s race next year. Not quite a toss-up, but White has a lot of assets (not the least of which is money, since he can transfer the $4 millions he’s raised for the Senate race to a gubernatorial campaign) with which to make the race as competitive as Democrats can hope for. Texas Monthly just published a lengthy feature on White that is well worth a read.

In this context, why might White pass on the Governor’s race? Here again, the reason looks fairly clear: While he’d be in a strong position to exploit Perry’s weaknesses, what if Hutchison wins the March primary? Sure, the general election would be competitive, but White would certainly face a far steeper mountain to climb. Hutchison is well-known, popular and most importantly within the Republican mainstream: In a red state like Texas, does that leave Democrats with a path of victory? Worst still for White: In such a scenario, Hutchison’s primary victory would mean she would resign from the Senate and there would be a special election after all - only by this point White would be stuck facing Hutchison (since he’d have already won the gubernatorial nomination) rather than being able to run for the vacancy.

Can we than imagine a scenario in which White and Hutchison wins the gubernatorial nomination, Hutchison resigns and White chooses to leave the Governor’s race and run for Senate? It sounds implausible, but it’s doable because the special election would most likely be held in May. Not only might that leave White time to come back to the Governor’s race if he loses the Senate one (fine, that sounds far-fetched), but in the compressed calendar under which the special election would unfold he would have a net advantage since he’d be running a statewide race for months.

Keep in mind that Democrats have another candidate who is running for Hutchison’s seat: Former Comptroller John Sharp has been in the race all year, and to the extent that winning a Senate seat - in Texas and in this environment - will be tough for any Democrat, it’s not clear that he would be that dramatic a step down from White. This is why it would be a win-win for Democrats if the Houston mayor were to swing contests: That would make them competitive in the Governor’s race and they would still have a credible candidate running for Senate in case Hutchison does resign.


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GOP offered golden pick-up opportunity as Rep. Moore announces retirement

House Democrats have not had many retirements to lament this year, but Kansas Rep. Dennis Moore just created one of the GOP’s best pick-up opportunities of the cycle by announcing he will not seek re-election in 2010.

Defending KS-03 would have been a tough challenge for Democrats in any cycle, but in 2006 or 2008 they would have had a stronger chance: Barack Obama did win the district (51% to 48%), so the district is not that inhospitable to the party. But the national environment in 2010 should favor Republicans; in a district that gave George W. Bush 11% in both 2000 and 2004, an open seat is bound to favor the GOP.

There are other factors still that should complicate life for Democrats: The top of the ticket should produce strong Republican coattails due to Democrats’ failure to contest the open senatorial and gubernatorial races, and the GOP has a stronger bench in the district. The name of former state Senator Nick Jordan, who received 41% in challenging Moore last year, is brandied around most often but the party has other figures it could turn to.

Yet, KS-03 is not in the same category as LA-03, an open seat Democrats have to defend that gave John McCain 61% of the vote; the GOP might be favored, but Democrats certainly have a fighting chance - and they also do have a number of state Senators who represents parts of the district. At the very least, they’ll be in a better position in this House race than they are in Kansas’s two statewide contests.

Why this development is particularly meaningful is that Republicans have had very few openings to work with this cycle - and this has been the single most important check on their hopes of scoring big congressional gains. Even in a wave election, incumbents are tough to beat: It’s open seats that produce big swings in House composition but,  as I analyzed at length in September, the number of vulnerable Democratic open seats are very low by all recent standards. I won’t run the numbers in detail yet again, but they have to be mentioned: In 1994, Democrats lost 22 open seats; in 2006 and in 2008, the GOP defended 33 vulnerable open seats and lost 19.

Moore’s retirement brings the number of open seats Democrats have to worry about to four (KS-03, PA-07, LA-03 and NH-02) - and there aren’t many more we’re keeping track of.

Yes, it’s true that Moore was no longer on our retirement watch list. As such, Republicans are now hoping that his decision is a harbinger of many more headaches for Democrats - a sign that many veteran Democrats who haven’t been expected to retire will choose to go out quietly rather than endure a tough re-election race in an unfavorable environment. How happy the GOP would be if any of Reps. Spratt, Snyder, Skelton or Mollohan called it quits.

Yet, there is little sign that a wave of unexpected retirement is coming and I am unconvinced that Moore’s decision tells us much about the state of mind of vulnerable Democrats. First and foremost… because he wasn’t particularly vulnerable. He wasn’t one of those veteran Democrats whom the NRCC had successfuly put in its cross hairs. Second, Moore was rumored as a potential retiree as soon as the 2010 cycle started. In late November 2008 (a time at which Democrats were hardly feeling depressed), he openly acknowledged that he was thinking about retiring, only to announce a week later that he would seek re-election. I am not aware of the likes of Skelton, Spratt, Snyder or Mollohan having made any statement in November 2008 indicating they were tired of politics.

All of this is only meant to put some perspective on Republican enthusiasm for Moore’s retirement: If a dozen or more Democrats in swing districts follow his path, we might talk about the House potentially in trouble but I’m not seeing where that dozen  would come from. But there is no question that this development is cause for unmitigated celebration at GOP headquarters. (It’s not like Moore announced he’d run for Senate, as Melancon did, which got the NRCC excited but the NRSC worried.)

Another important note: Moore’s retirement only confirms that the share of centrists Democrats’ in the next Democratic Caucus will be smaller. Not only are many of those who are being targeted Blue Dogs, but so are the 2 retirees whose seats the GOP is most likely to pick-up (Moore and Melancon). That said, Moore was far from the most conservative of Blue Dogs. Just two weeks ago, he voted for health care reform and against the Stupak amendment (which 64 Democrats supported); he also voted against the amendment banning gay marriage and received an F rating from the NRA.

Update: Jordan is already making it clear he is running, as is another state legislator. As for Democrats, Politico says the name of Kansas City Mayor Joe Reardon is circulating, as is that of Tom Wiggans, who I just wrote this morning was Democrats’ first candidate in the Governor’s race.


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Weekly 2010 update: Brace yourself, for someone is willing to run as a Dem in Kansas

Days after rumors erupted around Rudy Giuliani’s 2010 intentions, we have yet to receive any confirmation that the former New York City Mayor has indeed pulled the plug on the gubernatorial run and is preparing to challenge Kirsten Gillibrand; for all it’s worth, The Village Voice is now contradicting The Daily News and the AP to report that Giuliani will not run. Yet, that we are even talking about that possibility underscores the fact that the NRSC is still in a position to pull of formidable recruitment coups that would dramatically alter the Senate landscape: This past week also saw former Governor Tommy Thompson open the door to running in Wisconsin, as well as an increase in the buzz that North Dakota Governor John Hoeven might challenge Byron Dorgon.

In Kansas, Democrats finally have a candidate in the gubernatorial race: Tom Wiggans, a retired pharmaceutical executive. That the state party sounds very eager to embrace him speaks to how desperate they have gotten. Indeed, it looks unlikely that Wiggans (a political novice who spent his career in California before moving back to Kansas this January) can be much of a match for Senator Sam Brownback, the presumptive Republican nominee. While the fact that he has donated a lot of money to GOP candidates might not hurt him, what could is that he primarily looked interested in building connections with his donations: In 2008, he donated to the presidential campaigns of Obama, Giuliani, Romney and McCain.

On the other hand, Wiggans has two things going for him. First, he should be able to self-fund his campaign, which is all Democrats are looking for at this point. Second, Democrats are betting that, in the current anti-establishment context, the contrast between his business experience and Brownback’s service in the federal government will appeal to the state’s independent voters.

In Wyoming, Democratic Governor Dave Freudenthal has yet to announce whether he will challenge the state’s term-limit law, but the GOP is already getting organized. Two have already announced - former state Rep. Ron Micheli and House Speaker Colin Simpson - and a third just walked into the race: Matt Mead, who served as U.S. Attorney from 2001 to 2007, formed an exploratory committee. By my count, this makes him the fourth Republican U.S. attorney to seek political office this cycle (Chris Christie, Tim Griffin, Pat Meehan are the others), so keep an eye on the people Barack Obama is currently appointing: We might hear about them in the 2014 or 2016 cycles.

Finally, Maine looks to be competing with Minnesota for the title of most crowded gubernatorial race: former Speaker John Richardson announced this week that he would run for the Democratic nomination, joining a long list of credible contenders (former AG Rowe, state Senate President Elizabeth Mitchell, businesswoman Rosa Scarcelli and still others all have a credible path to the nomination). On the Republican side, no one new jumped in the race this week but I had missed state Senator Peter Mills’ candidacy announcement from a while ago; Mills, who got 35% in the GOP’s 2006 primary, joins two wealthy businessmen and still other candidates.

As always, I list all the changes I have logged in during the week to the “retirement watch” and recruitment pages. Written in red are those politicians who announced their definite plans rather than simply expressed interest or stroke speculation. First, updates to Retirement Watch:

Will retire No one
Will not retire No one

Second, updates to the Senate recruitment page:

KY-Sen, GOP former Ambassador Cathy Bailey added to list
NC-Sen, Dem former LG Dennis Wicker will not run
NH-Sen, GOP businessman Sean Mahoney will not run
WI-Sen, GOP former Governor Tommy Thompson added to list

Third, updates to gubernatorial races:

KS-Gov, Dem retired businessman Tom Wiggans is running
ME-Gov, Dem former Mayor Donna Dion is running
State Conservation Commissioner Patrick McGowan added
former Speaker John Richardson announced run
Rosa Scarcelli is running
ME-Gov, GOP Waterville Mayor Paul LePage is running
state Senator Peter Mills is running
MN-Gov, GOP state Sen. Paul Koering dropped out (in August)
NY-Gov, GOP Rudy Giuliani reportedly will not run
OR-Gov, Dem former Hewlett-Packard VP Steve Shields dropped out
PA-Gov, GOP National Guardsman Robert Mansfield announced run
WI-Gov, Dem Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett announced run
WY-Gov, GOP former US Attorney Matt Mead: exploratory committee
former state Rep. Ron Micheli is runnin

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Conservative Democrats’ decision to help GOP drag on debate isn’t smart move

As an addendum to my post on last night’s health care vote: It is no coincidence that the last Senator to announce how she would vote on last night’s procedural vote is the only conservative Democrat who is up for re-election next year. Yet, I’m skeptical of Blanche Lincoln’s strategy.

None of this applies if Lincoln and her allies are ultimately looking to kill the bill (Lincoln is surely wondering whether she’d emerge as a heroine among her state’s independents and Republican voters if she was the one Senator who sank health care reform), which is why Joe Lieberman might be the one senator this post doesn’t apply to. But if these vulnerable centrists are looking to end up letting the bill pass, they should want to get the issue over with as soon as possible.

There’s a reason Republicans are looking to drag this debate into 2010, and Blue Dogs Democrats’ willingness to help them isn’t a smart move insofar as their survival is concerned.

For one, can it be a good idea for Lincoln to position herself at the very center of the debate and thus attract so much more attention on herself? When she spends days publicly hesitating as to whether she’ll let the health care bill proceed before emerging as the decisive vote at the last minute, she can be sure that her vote (and not, say Pryor’s) will be on the front page of every paper and that Arkansans will come away thinking that she ended up caving to the Democratic leadership.

Second, if centrists were to make their support clear earlier, it would at least allow them not to be in an uncomfortable spotlight. For instance: By holding a press conference announcing his decision on the public option weeks before he unveiled the rest of the merged bill, Reid got a progressive group to stop airing an ad in Nevada that was questioning his strength as a leader, whether Lincoln’s reputation was surely not bolstered by the ads liberal groups have been running in Arkansas in recent weeks.

Third, it’s unlikely vulnerable Democrats will face any less pressure from the right if they vote to adopt a bill that contain a trigger than if they vote to adopt a bill that contains an opt-out. The difference is that their insistence on the former drags the debate over many more months - thus prolonging the time over which the bill will look more radioactive. This dynamic played out over the summer: You might remember that Nancy Pelosi was looking to get the House to vote for health-care reform before the summer recess, but Blue Dog Democrats forced a delay until the vote in exchange for their letting the bill emerge out of the Energy and Commerce Committee. This set the stage for the dramatic August town halls; health care reform became far more unpopular and it increased the political pressure on vulnerable House Democrats trying to decide how to vote.

Note that this is just as damaging to those who end up opposing the bill as to those who end up supporting it. Reps. Ike Skelton or Health Shuler contributed to delaying the debate’s resolution by months - perhaps all the way to January 2010, in an election year. They then ended up voting ‘no’ but it’s the Democratic brand itself - the entire party, its entire ticket - that will suffer if an unpopular bill passes so slowly as to galvanize opposition, so late as to be on voters’ mind next November.



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  • All good things must come to an end

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    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55
  • What remains on the table

  • Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

    Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55
  • Confusion in Connecticut (Updated)

  • Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

    Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55
  • Results thread, part 2: Dems suffer staggering losses in House and legislatives races, limit damage in statewide races

  • Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

    Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55
  • Election Night results thread: Rep. Boucher’s fall first surprise of the night

  • Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

    Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55
  • Election night cheat sheet

  • Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

    Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55
  • Final ratings: Democrats brace for historic losses

  • Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

    Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55
  • What to watch for down-ballot

Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

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