Believe it or not, there is some electoral news this week that does not concern New Jersey, New York and Virginia: Heather Wilson’s announcement that she will not run for Governor next year is a crucial development, since it increases Democrats’ prospects of holding on to New Mexico’s governorship while shuffling up the Republican primary.
Not only have Democrats long already lined up Lieutenant Governor Diane Denish as their presumptive nominee (in fact, Denish thought she would run as the incumbent since incumbent Governor Bill Richardson was supposed to be appointed to Barack Obama’s Cabinet until ethical questions forced him to step down) but New Mexico has been trending blue: Few states swung as dramatically in 2008, with Obama scoring a double-digit victory and Tom Udall cruising to an easy triumph in a Senate race the GOP was never able to contest.
That’s to say that Republicans were not going to have it easy in next year’s gubernatorial race even if they had fielded their top candidate - and Wilson’s withdrawal takes care of that possibility: Until she lost a Senate primary to Pearce last year, Wilson was as battle-tested a Republican as any, since she had survived multiple Democratic assaults on her swing district (NM-01). Combined with her name recognition, her record of appealing to independents would have made an interesting get for the GOP.
All of this said, Wilson would have come to the race with her own glaring problems. Beyond potentially facing a conservative challenge in the primary, she would have taken the GOP back to an era it’s trying to forget, especially given her connections to the U.S. Attorney’s scandal that agitated New Mexico politics more than that of other states. Testifying to the possibility that Wilson was no longer electable given her involvement in the GOP debacle that was the 2008 Senate race, a springtime DGA poll has her trailing Denish by 22%.
As such, her exit might be an opportunity for Republicans to see whether new faces might have better luck turning the page of the Bush years - and the exit of such a heavyweight should allow other politicians to stay or jump in the race: State Rep. Janice Arnold-Jones and Dona Ana County District Attorney Susana Martinez are already running, an former state party chairman Allan Weh has formed an exploratory committee.
Of these, Martinez is attracting the most attention as a potentially highly competitive general election nominee. For one, she is a Hispanic woman, which might help the GOP address a big reason it’s falling behind in New Mexico: The combination of demographic transformations and of the party’s unpopularity among Latinos. Second, she has been a District Attorney in the state’s second biggest county since 1996, winning three terms. Third, she is relatively moderate, which should help her in the general election of a blue state; in fact, she was a Democrat until the early 1990s.
Of course, Martinez’s moderate profile should also mean trouble in the Republican primary, so we’ll have to watch what happens there. That contest will be held in June.
In other gubernatorial news, Bauer makes his move
No one doubted that South Carolina Lieutenant Governor Andre Bauer would enter the open Governor’s race, but his weird offer to Governor Mark Sanford (’I won’t run in 2010 if you agree to resign’) had raised eyebrows as to what exactly Bauer was up to. There are now no more question marks: Bauer has started to file paperwork in preparation for a gubernatorial campaign.
Bauer’s move means two things. First, the Republican primary will be even more confusing and complicated than it already is: There are now 5 candidates who could have a shot at winning especially given how small a share of the vote is needed in such a crowded field: Besides Bauer are running Rep. Greshman Barrett, Attorney General Henry McMaster, state Rep. Nikki Haley and state Senator Larry Grooms.
Second, Bauer’s entry ensures that much of the primary debate gets framed around Sanford’s legacy since he is viewed as one of the Governor’s leading political rivals.
In fact, the multiplication of candidates who are positioning themselves in opposition to Sanford (Barrett had called for his resignation over the summer, McMaster has also distanced himself) could give Haley an opening: If she can coalesce whatever share of South Carolina Republicans are still supportive of their governor, it could give her a large enough plurality to clinch victory. (Update: A commenter points out that the primary will be decided by a runoff if no candidate receives 50%, so this analysis does not hold. At least coalescing pro-Stanford voters could help Haley to the runoff?)
Of course, the primary’s stakes will be high because the winner will start the general election as the clear favorite: Democrats might nominate a credible candidate of their own (Superintendent of Education Jim Rex is running, as well as two state Senators) but South Carolina has drifted rightward enough that the GOP will have a clear edge.
Just to make it clear, in SC if a candidate doesn’t get 50% in the primary there is a runoff. Both of these primaries are almost certain to go to runoffs. There has been some rumbling about Barrett dropping out of the race though.
Preston, thanks for pointing that out. I feel like I made this very same mistake before.
I think Susana Martinez is probably more electable then Wilson anyway. She just had too much baggage. The definition of someone we just need to turn the page on electorally. A fresh face like Martinez is better.
She wasn’t really a local politics girl anyway, she’s more of a State Department/Defense Department sort (her PhD is in International Relations and she did a lot of work on homeland security issues). I doubt we’ve heard the last of Wilson, but it’ll be as Undersecretary of State/Defense etc. She’s done with electoral politics.
The South Carolina primary may turn out to be as interesting as the one in Florida. It is likely to become very negative as Andre Bauer was recently outed by gay activist Mike Rogers on his website.
His sexual orientation may be the reason many SC Republicans were not so keen to see him replace disgraced Governor Mark Sanford after his recent escapade. Then again SC has lived with rumors about Senator Lindsey Graham’s sexual orientation for years, so who knows maybe they are more liberal than most people thought.
I will be fascinated to see who endorses him if he actually enters the race.
I don’t really see any credice to the gay rumors on Bauer, just like the gay rumors on Charlie Crist don’t seem that credible. A mere rumor isn’t going to stop Bauer at all. Perhaps if he actually was gay and admited it, but I don’t think its going to happen.
JR:
I don’t agree that rumors won’t effect the race. I’m sure it is affecting the Florida race although I haven’t seen any polling one way or the other.
In South Carolina I can’t see the gay card not being played if Bauer looks to be winning.
There is a fare bit of evidence re Crist (see the HBO doc “Outrage”) and Mike Rogers has a pretty good record in outing hypocritical closeted gays.
As I said in my first comment lets see who endorses Bauer. My guess the tea party crowd will not be in his camp although he has been a big supporter of the Christian right.
fritz, You’re making it sound like the Bauer rumors have been substantiated to a greater degree than the Crist ones. Is that the case? Last I had heard about this was Sanford allies raising that implication a few months ago, and this being covered as just an example that any single Republican gets “attacked” for being gay?
Taniel:
No, the Crist rumors have been around for years, are accepted by many people and he has a much higher political profile.
Until the Sanford affair blew up few outside SC had ever heard of Bauer so his story is much less known although the rumors have been mentioned recently on local SC MSM.
There is a lot of work being done now to out gay politicians who have legislated against the LGBT movement and this is just the latest instance of this practise.
My reason for bringing it up is to point out it may become a factor(likely under the MSM radar) in the SC primary just as it has been in the Florida primary.
Barrett will not withdraw. He has too much money from selling his votes in D.C. to consider ever withdrawing. He’s in through the primary.
I’ve never though there was a chance of Barrett dropping out either, but I’ve heard it from a few people. He is also having trouble getting permission from donors to his congressional account. Many of those donors are not so keen of him using the money for a gubernatorial race where Bauer and McMaster are candidates.
Nobody in politics in SC believes for a second that Bauer is gay either. They will attack him on a lot of other things, but being gay isn’t one of them.
The McMaster camp was the one either starting or pushing the rumor about Bauer. McMaster had a campaign ad on Rogers’ homepage for several weeks, starting out on the day of the “outing”.