Campaign Diaries

3 polls, and little good news for Arlen Specter

In one of the ugliest polls for Arlen Specter since the longtime senator switched parties, Rasmussen’s latest poll of the Democratic primary finds the Senator’s lead down to just four points over Joe Sestak, 46% to 42%. That’s not quite as catastrophic a situation as Specter faced in the Republican primary against Pat Toomey, but it is a brutal deterioration of Specter’s standing: He led by 19% in June.

Specter’s lead is evaporating before Sestak even starts hammering the incumbent and reminding voters of all the reasons that made Specter a Republican for decades. Once ads start airing showing Specter praising George W. Bush, what will remain of his remaining 4%? Specter will need all the help he can get from Barack Obama - and the $8.7 million he now has in the banks will obviously come handy.

A major caveat: A Susquehanna Polling and Research survey released a few days ago finds Specter with a far larger lead (44% to 16%). Obviously, this is nothing for Sestak to celebrate - but neither does it qualify as good news for Specter: As long as he is well under 50%, the huge name recognition differential that separates him from Sestak doesn’t entitle him to get much comfort out of this 28% lead.

Another reason Specter will not want to draw much attention to that Susquehanna poll is that his numbers among the general electorate are atrocious - just as they are atrocious in two other surveys released over the past few days:

• In Susquehanna, his re-elect is down to a dismal 31%, and he is locked in a dead heat with Pat Toomey (42% to 41%).

• A poll by GrassrootsPA, a Republican firm, has Specter leading 46% to 43% - which is less good than Sestak’s 43% to 38% lead.

• Rasmussen, finally, has Toomey leading 45% to 40% against Specter but trailing 38% to 37% against Sestak.

Rasmussen’s general election poll is actually a slight improvement for Specter over the June poll, which found him trailing Toomey by a bizarre 12%. Even holding that as a clear outlier, the picture that emerges out of these three polls is still one of an unpopular incumbent struggling to make it to the general election and in an undoubtedly vulnerable position if he does make it.

And it is quite remarkable that both GrassrootsPA and Rasmussen find Sestak running better in the general election than Specter. I have long said that Democrats would face a huge enthusiasm deficit if they let Specter move on to the general, and that problem has only been aggravated in recent months: Democrats already face a motivational gap, and they really can’t afford to give their base any more reason to be indifferent.

A rare sign that Crist might be growing vulnerable

Most U.S. congressmen who run for Senate are considered to have a good shot at winning, but Rep. Kendrick Meek finds himself the heavy underdog against Charlie Crist. Meek’s solution: Release an internal poll that finds some promising results. While we might not think of a survey that has Crist leading 47% to 31% as particularly good news for Meek, the Democrat is trying to attract our attention to the finding that Meek leads 45% to 43% among voters who know both candidates.

I don’t have room in this post to list all the ways in which this is a meaningless figure. 1. It’s an internal survey. 2. We are talking about a small subsample (just 25% of respondents know Meek) with a big MoE. 3. This subsample is skewed to the left: Voters who know Meek are most likely to be living in Southern Florida (starting with those who live around his district) and thus be far more Democratic than the electorate at large.

To the extent that the poll finds a comforting thought for Meek, it’s nothing new: The name recognition differential between the two contenders is so large that it obviously impacts the results and Meek can close some of the margin just by introducing himself to voters. But we have long known this would not be enough: Meek is running against a quasi-incumbent who is so popular (an approval rating hovering above 60%) that Democrats have had no opening.

This is why the far more interesting Florida survey released this week is an Insider Advantage poll that finds Crist’s approval rating falling all the way down to 47%, with 41% disapproving.

We’ll have to wait to see whether this survey is an outlier. For now, let’s just say it’s a rare - a first? - sign that the economic crisis that has plunged so many of the country’s governors in a dismal political situation might be catching up with Crist. If this trend is confirmed, we might suddenly have a race on our hands: Just as the Culver, Strickland and Ritter are facing far more competitive contests than expected, Crist might find it hard to stay afloat if voters start blaming him for the state’s economic and fiscal woes.

Let’s not forget that, before even moving on to the general election, Crist will have to survive another grueling legislative session and the no doubt brutal attacks of Marco Rubio and his allies.

Another internal poll, this one in Illinois

Mark Kirk has less to prove than Kendrick Meek to the extent that he is already considered one of the NRSC’s best gets, but we have nonetheless seen very little polling from the Illinois Senate race. Kirk’s campaign sought to remedy that by releasing an internal poll that shows him leading Democratic front-runner Alexi Giannoulias 42% to 35%. The poll also tests the primary, finding it to be uncompetitive with no evidence that GOP voters are rejecting the relatively moderate Kirk.

Sure, this is an internal poll but the few public surveys that have been conducted have also found worrisome results for Democrats (a springtime PPP survey had Giannoulias and Kirk tied). A public poll conducted today might not find Giannoulias trailing outside of the MoE, but the fact that Democrats are in real danger of losing Illinois comes as no surprise. This is one of seven seats the GOP has already made highly competitive, and Democrats are in no position to be complacent about any of them.