Campaign Diaries

For months, the GOP has been crowing about the gains it expects to make in the 2010 midterms. Boosted by the projections of non-partisan analysts, Republicans insist they should pick-up as many as 20 seats. Yet, they are now in very clear danger of losing a seat themselves: NY-23’s special election, which over the summer looked like it would be a long shot for Demorats who had no bench to speak of, is turning into a nigthmare for the Republican Party.

In many ways, Dede Scozzafava’s woes are the prolongation of the trainwreck that has become New York’s Republican Party. Over the past few years, they have sabatogated their own prospects in countless of races - whether Rep. Sweeney’s scandal in 2006, Rep. Fossella’s forced retirement and the ensing spectacle in 2008 or Assemblyman Tedisco’s flawed campaign in 2009. Now, it’s the intra-right war Scozzafava and Conservative Party nominee Doug Hoffman that is damaging GOP prospects, ruining the party’s chances of taking advantage of the national environment to score a decisive victory.

This is all the more tragic for Republicans because a Democratic victory in NY-23 would make it very tough for the GOP to point to New Jersey and Virginia’s governorships (assuming they pick-up both) as a harbinger of a coming red wave.

A new Siena poll confirms the narrative of an NRCC nightmare

According to Siena, what two weeks ago was a 7% lead for Scozzafava has swung to a 4% lead for Owens: The Democratic nominee gets 33%, with 29% for Scozzafava and 23% for Hoffman. 15% are undecided. This is now legitimately a 3-way race: three candidates are all within 10%. In a contest that is sure to be decided by low turnout, that means that we could get just about any result on November 3rd. But there is no question that Owens’s prospects are looking increasingly good.

Scozzafava and Hoffman are neutralize each other (over the past 2 weeks, Hoffman rised by 7% and Scozzafava fell by 6%), and there is nothing to suggest the conservative candidate will fade away: 63% of voters still don’t know him, so he still has plenty of room to grow. NY-23 is a swing district, so it’s not like there are so many GOP-leaning voters that the Republicans can afford splitting their vote.

As such, Owens is now in a position to win based on the support of his party’s base alone: In this poll, he only receives 55% of the Democratic vote, so he has room to rise above 33% as he continues to cover the airwaves with his ads. That makes him the front-runner: As long as neither Hoffman nor Scozzafava collapse (allowing the other to become the GOP’s de facto sole nominee) Owens won’t need much more than his current level of support to clinch victory. And of these 3 candidates, Owens is the least likely to lose backers: There is no one trying to take the Democratic base away from him and Owens has enough money to stay in voters’ minds - far more than Scozzafava does.

What is bound to depress Republicans is that the poll is a testament to how favored they would have been had this been a two-way race: Hoffman and Scozzafava together are receiving 52% of the vote. That makes it hard to see how Owens would have been competitive had he only faced Scozzafava.

What might be the reasons of the woes of Scozzafava’s camp?

The first reason that explains Owens and Hoffman’s progression is a shocking report courtesy of Politico: Despite the fact that she is the only politically experienced candidate, Scozzafava has no money to mount a strong campaign effort in the election’s closing weeks. She is being outspent by both her rivals - including by a 12-1 ratio relatively against Owens. For now, she has only been able to spend $26,000 on TV ads, whereas Owens has spent $303,000 and Hoffman has spent $124,000.

This is all the more terrible for Scozzafava because she is the one who is being hammered by both of her opponents - not to mention by the DCCC. It’s not like Owens or Hoffman are paying much attention to each other: (At the moment, Owens does not mind Hoffman’s rise while Hoffman is too busy taking Scozzafava down to worry about the Democrat.) With Scozzafava unable to counter the barrage of ads attacking her, the main reason she is still standing is that she started with a solid advantage in name recognition.

Of course, that factor should not be understated: Scozzafava is in trouble, she is financially uncompetitive - but she is also by far the most experienced candidate in the race. She is well-known in at least one part of the district, she will appear on the Independeent Party’s ballot line and her years as an Assemblywoman make her a credible enough candidate (relatively to her rivals’ lack of a public record) that she seems protected from a full-blown collapse that would leave her a distant third.

But at the moment, she has to find a way to lift herself up while simultaneously beating back two opponents - ensuring she does not lose more moderates to Owens while not letting Hoffman become the de facto GOP nominee. That’s a tough exercise.

The second factor that’s fueling Republican pessimism is that the Democratic base looks more willing to embrace Owens than a few months ago, when union groups were signaling they wouldn’t pay much attention to this race because of the contest’s ideological confusion. Yet, the Working Families Party announced last week it would endorse Owens. That not only means that the Democratic nominee will appear on the WFP’s ballot line, but it also means that he will benefit from their organizational muscle; sure, this is not New York City, but the WFP’s turnout machine should be a big boost to Owens.

Don’t forget that this endorsement was not obvious: The WFP had endorsed Scozzafava in some of her past races. There is little doubt that Scozzafava’s need to watch her right flank prevented her from seeking the WFP’s nod as actively as she might have otherwise. Given Owens’s position on issues like the public option, that might have been enough to at least get the party to sit this one out.

The best news Scozzafava recently received was an endorsement by the NRA, which might just have easily have gone for Hoffman. But what is good for Scozzafava is not necessarily bad for Democrats: the Republican universe is confirming its split between the two contenders that are claiming the GOP mantle. Even Mike Huckabee might be preparing to join in the fun: He is scheduled to speak at a Conservative Party state meeting in the coming weeks.