It was the biggest question mark left in the 2010 cycle and it was resolved in the GOP’s favor: Delaware Rep. Mike Castle will run for Senate.
It is impossible to overstate the importance of this development: Castle’s candidacy single-handedly transforms what would otherwise have been a safe Democratic hold into a highly competitive contest that for now should be described towards a Republican takeover. In short, Castle’s decision makes Joe Biden’s former seat the cycle’s most vulnerable, with all eyes now turning towards Beau Biden.
After two cycles in which they were unable to mount any offense, the NRSC can look forward to an ever-increasing list of seats it has a strong shot of picking-up: We already had Nevada, Arkansas, Connecticut, Colorado, Illinois and Pennsylvania. We can now add Delaware, which gets the GOP to a total of 7 top-tier opportunities.
Sure, in some of these states the GOP is competitive despite - rather than because - its recruitment: No top-tier contender has arisen in NV, AR, CO and even PA. But IL and DE’s inclusions on the list has everything to do about recruitment: No one but Castle could have made the latter state competitive in 2010, and conventional wisdom held that the NRSC was wasting its time trying to recruit the state’s longtime representative. At 70, Castle was believed more likely to leave politics altogether rather than to seek higher office; but Senate Republicans managed to convinced him to run, adding him to a roster of top recruits.
(If Castle’s decision is a harbinger of the NRSC’s success in recruiting other politicians who are not expected to jump in Senate races but still might, the coming months could still bring more bad news for Democrats: In North Dakota, New York and even Hawaii, current or former Republican governors could be threatening challengers to Democratic incumbents.)
In Delaware, the nightmare scenario for Democrats is obviously that Attorney General Beau Biden chooses not to run. While Biden has been considered a certain candidate all year, recent reports have suggested he might not want to jump if he has to face the one state politician who could defeat him.
Let’s not forget that the only reason Democrats are now in such trouble is that the state’s governor appointed a placeholder last year for Biden to be able to run in 2010. That transparently nepotistic move is now about to backfire on Democrats even more so than Blagojevich’s decision to appoint Roland Burris:Had Ruth appointed someone like John Carney to the senate, it’s highly unlikely Castle would have chosen to run since he would have had to challenge an incumbent. All of this makes it quite frustrating to think Biden might not even run.
If Biden does pass on the race, Castle would immediately become the clear front-runner. The state is Democratic enough and Castle is old enough that another Democrat could mount a competitive campaign, but it would be just as likely that Castle becomes the Mark Warner of the 2010 cycle - a Senate candidate who is as sure of picking-up a seat as the safest of incumbents.
Let’s not forget that Castle is in many ways in the position an incumbent: He has represented the entire state in one position or another for now 28 years. He served as Lieutenant Governor from 1981 to 1985 and as Governor from 1985 to 1992. That year, he was elected to the state’s at-large House seat and he has easily secured nine congressional terms.
Castle would be a formidable contender whoever he faces, then. Even if Biden runs, Democrat cannot expect the race to be classified as anything more favorable than a toss-up - at least at the beginning. Three recent polls have shown Castle leading Biden, one of them by the bizarrely large margin of 21%!
All of this said, there are a number of reasons to think Biden would keep things competitive. For one, Delaware clearly leans blue - and Biden’s last name would make it easy for him to connect his fate to that of the White House; if Obama is so unpopular that he is a weight for Democrats in a state like Delaware, we’re looking for a dismal Democratic year anyway. Second, the partisan stakes of a Senate race are higher than those of a gubernatorial or House contest; as such, Democrats might have an easier time damaging Castle based on his party affiliation than they have had over the past 28 years.
And third is Castle’s age, his energy (he was clearly considering leaving politics altogether next year) and the time that has gone by since he last had to run a competitive campaign - arguably not since 1992. Will he have what it takes to face Biden, and how will the stark difference between his 70 years and the Attorney General’s youth play out on the trail?
A major consolation for Democrats: Castle’s House seat is top pick-up opportunity
Castle was expected not to seek re-election even if he passed on the Senate race, but today’s confirmation that Delaware’s at-large seat will be open for the first time since 1992 is sure to delight House Democrats. Indeed, this is now the third clearly blue-leaning district that the DCCC will have a shot at reclaiming next year - the other two being IL-10 and PA-06. And Democrats are far more certain to capture DE-AL than either of those other two: Not only did the district vote for Obama by 25%, but former Lieutenant Governor John Carney is already running for the Democratic nomination.
When you add LA-02, where Republican Rep. Anh Cao is all but certain to lose his re-election race, that means that four GOP-held districts are now leaning towards a Democratic takeover. This firewall will be extremely useful for the DCCC to hold down Republican gains. This is all the more striking when we consider that Democrats have held the number of vulnerable open seat they have to defend to a surprisingly low level - one that makes it impossible for the NRCC to envision more than 3-4 easy pick-ups.
In short, the Senate and House landscapes are increasingly divergent, with the conditions of major GOP gains in the former far better established than in the latter.
Castle’s entrance surely alters the race fundamentally but Rothenberg putting it Lean Takeover is a bit drastic IMHO.
Castle, like Beau, has a lot to prove.
Does he have the fire in the belly?
Can he keep the fundraising pace with the Biden/White House machine?
Can he overcome the Democratic tilt of the state in a race where he is not the incumbent?
He is a very strong candidate but he isn’t a Mark Warner.
And he certainly won’t be running against a Jim Gilmore.
Panos,
The bottom line at this point is that we can’t say for sure that Biden will run… which surely explains that Rothenberg changed it to lean takeover and is a reason I am considering it the most vulnerable seat of the cycle for now.
Taniel you are WAY overstating Castle’s strength. Yes, this is the biggest recruitment for BOTH parties, let alone the RSCC alone, but to say that Castle is the second coming of Mark Warner is probably inaccurate. Castle’s hey day in the state government and his Governorship in the 1990s came in time in which Delaware was evenly split between the parties: Delaware is now solidly Democratic at all levels of government. Castle has only gotten sacrificial lambs since he was first elected to the house, so that is why he has won so easily,the Democrats haven’t even tried. Mark Warner came in when Virgina was still a Republican state and was popoular enough to help Democrats turn it into a purple state. Castle has done nothing to keep Delaware from sliding to become solidly Democratic.
Also in the 2008 race, Warner benefited from the GOP using a convention instead of a primary, which forced Tom Davis out of the race. Had Warner had faced Davis instead of Gilmore, the race would have been much closer. In Delaware, unlike Davis in Virginia, there is no choice of a party only convention and Biden will almost assuredly get the nomination if he jumps in the race.
A Biden/Castle race could mirror the Carper/Roth race of 2000, in which two popular politicians went up against each other but that Carper’s youth compared to his oppennet helped him win. Roth had a similar reputation to Castle: he was in the Senate since he won in 1970, having no competive race in 30 years until he met his match from Carper. A similar thing could occur in 2010, except that Biden wouldn’t have the help of Obama (and his father) on the top of the ticket. So the race doesn’t start as lean Republican, it starts as lean toss-up, with CT and NV being more vulernable than DE.
Even if Biden passes on the race (which I said in my previous post would ruin his reputation among DE Democrats) and a high profile replacement like Carney doesn’t step in, Castle isn’t going to get a free ride. There is certainly some state level Democrats who wouldn’t mind going up against Castle and if not winning outright, getting name recognition for 2014. Castle did vote against the stimulas so that could be used against him in the state,as well as other votes in which Castle voted the GOP line. Castle would be favored if a statewide elected Democrat is his opponnet, but someoe who hasn’t campaiged for a competive race and years and who is very old for a non-incumbent Senate Candidate is not going to be the next Mark Warner.
Also, Carney is the FORMER Lt. Governor of Delaware, he lost the 2008 Dem gubernentorial primary to then Treasuer, now Current Govenor Jack Markell.
Delaware is the biggest get for the GOP and no other recruitment would be bigger short of Mike Huckabee suddeny annoucning a Senate Challange to Blanche Lincoln. For one, HI, ND, and NY all have incumbents running for reelection. Pataki would be the best chance for the GOP out of the three but alot of New Yorkers on the blogs say that he isn’t a good speaker and that Gillibrand, as she builds up her name recogntion, could defeat him in debates easily. In North Dakota, Hoeven may be one of the most popular Govenors, but Dorgan is one of the most popular Senators. Yes, Hoeven is around the 80s while Dorgon is around the 60s in approval, but Dorgon will have 18 years of senority under his belt on election day 2010 and for a small state like ND, senority matters alot or you can’t get anything. Plus Dorgon has millions stashed up so Democrats don’t reall need to give him any money.
In Hawaii, well that is Obama’s birth state which would be enough, but also Inoyue who has represented Hawaii for most of its existance as a state is running for reelection and Lingle can’t get within single digits or even pull him under 50%. If she really wants to run for Senate she will wait in 2012 in the hope that Akaka decides to retire.
Sorry for my super long post!
If Beau decides not to run then he will imediately become a pariah among Democrats, in Delaware and nationally.
Spineless coward will be the kindest expression that will be tosed to him.
Panos I agree with you %100. Hell I bet that whoever did decide to run against Castle would the overwhelming frontrunner in 1014 if they lost to him next year and Castle was retiring, not a quitter like Beau.
Hummm hummm hummm…I understand that 35% of the registered DL electorate is African-American. The only poll I have seen, shows Mr. Castle drawing almost 40% of the vote. Call me a cynic, but coming election day that number will be 7%. I reckon there was a reason congressman Castle never challenged senator Biden or senator Caper. Perhaps because he could not win? Silly season again. Wake up!! This is a Hail Mary for the old codger. A free play. He was not going to run for congress again to be in the abject minority. Retirement?? Four years in the senate? Let’s do the senate thing, maybe i get lucky. Easy win for Biden. He will run, make no bones about it.
Robert_V,
In 2008, 17% of Delaware voters were African-American (CNN exit poll), so it’s certainly not 35%… I also agree the race will be a toss-up if Biden jumps in and I also believe he will do so, but (1) Castle HAS been leading in polls against someone with strong name recognition and (2) we’ll rediscuss once Biden declares.
Panos, I unfortunately do not think enough people pay attention to who should have run for what that Biden risks developing such a reputation among more than a small core political junkies.
I stand corrected! Still Rasmussen and PPP polls had Castle showing unusual strength among AA voters. In the final analysis I don’t believe those voters will be there for him come next November. I still believe this is a Hail Mary from Mr. Castle. He is running for “place holder” for B. Biden. Nobody sane will expect Mr. Castle to run again come 2014. This is going to be one of those “the future is now” campaigns, and the future is not Mike Castle.
Well, Biden certainly isn’t ready to commit to the race.
Perhaps a smart move for Beau Biden might be to challenge John Carney for Castle’s house seat. Castle has only a four year term because he is replacing Joe Biden and is unlikely to re-offer in 2014. Beau Biden is still a young man with little political experience and 4 years in the House would make him unbeatable in 2014, even if Castle decided to stay on.
Senator Castle is not the worst thing that Obama would face in the Senate. He is a moderate in the Snowe/Collins mold and would be use to dealing with the Democrats especially Joe Biden.
That being said Beau Biden would obviously be be the better choice in 2010; if he can get elected.
Would this be any indication that Bill Young might retire? He didn’t get his career capper; Lemeiux did, and I think he’s itching for retirement as bad as Castle is. In Castle’s announcent, he seemed not the most enthusiastic of candidates. One thing to remember is that Young was first elected way back when Florida was a really Blue state, though he did replace its first R representative in 120 years.
Fritz, I can tell you right now that if Beau Biden challanged Carney for the house seat, he would lose overwhelmingly to Carney. I mean there is a reason why a placeholder was appointed instead of someone who would run for a full term, if Biden doesn’t follow through then is career in politics beyond his current term as Attorny General would be over.
I do think that there would be some encourgement for Carney to jump into the 2010 race instead if Biden doesn’t follow through: I suspect that Carney would get a very welcome reception from DE Democrats and in gratitude for going against Castle, I think he would be the overwhelming favorite in 2014 if he lost to Castle in 2010 and Castle was retiring.
I also think that Biden would be much weaker in the House Race than the Senate race because of the perception of weakness and that he doesn’t want to earn his way to political power, but have it given to him due to his last name. In fact I think a Republican (as long as they were moderate like Castle and not a right winger like Christine O’Donnell) would have a good chance of defeating Biden in the at large House seat because of this.
JR:
If Biden was to express an interest in the house seat I think he and Carney would work out a deal that would see Carney take on Castle in the Senate race. Carney has already challenged Castle for the House seat so he shouldn’t fear taking him on in the Senate race. His chance of victory is as good in the Senate race as the House race although it would make for an interesting primary in 2014.
In the end I think this is all academic as Biden will go for the Senate seat and have a very good chance of winning in 2010. Beau Biden is a very impressive person, in his own right, and I still remember his introduction at his fathers nomination as one of the best (non Obama) speeches of the 2008 campaign.
Carney has already challenged Castle for the House seat so he shouldn’t fear taking him on in the Senate race.
The problem with this logic is that the only reason Carney ran for House was that he thought he could scare Castle into running for Senate or retiring, giving him a relatively easy ride to the House. I don’t think he ever expected to run against Castle himself.
One way or another, you can’t spin Biden’s statement to Castle’s announcement. He might run, but he’s clearly scared.
I also do not see how it would make sense for Carney to run for Senate. At this point Carney wants to prolong his political career. With odds that Castle wouldn’t run for re-election and the pressure he faced not to challenge Biden in Senate race, the House race was the most likely way for him to stay in politics, which is why he jumped in there.
“The problem with this logic is that the only reason Carney ran for House was that he thought he could scare Castle into running for Senate or retiring, giving him a relatively easy ride to the House. I don’t think he ever expected to run against Castle himself.”
Cliff’ By that logic Carney should run against Castle in the Senate race in the hope he could scare him back to the house race and he could have an easy time (assuming Biden stays out) in the Senate race.
Neither Carney or Biden seem to be profiles in political courage. I think we may be over analyzing this race. Lets see what Biden does.
Fritz, you really, really aren’t getting this. It isn’t complicated. I can’t figure out if you’re being deliberately obtuse or if you really don’t understand.
By “scare” I don’t mean he actually thought he’d beat Castle, merely that he’d have to work hard for it, which he hasn’t had to do in a while. If Castle suspected he’d have to work hard for re-election to the House, when he was considering either running for Senate or retiring, even if he figured he’d win, he’d just as soon run for Senate or retire. Carney, in the meantime, waltzes into his House Seat.
It wouldn’t “scare” Castle at all if Carney ran for his Senate seat. He’d almost certainly be easier to beat then Biden.
Carney’s plan, obviously, was to make Castle’s life difficult so he’d just run for Senate or retire. There is no way in hell, now having succeeded in getting Castle out of the House race, that he’d ever jump into the Senate race. He’s not that stupid.
Cliff; Sorry, I do understand what you were getting at and your analysis may be totally correct. My only concern is that we have no actual evidence to support it or any other theory.
For example Beau Biden was asked if he was going to challenge Mike Castle. He replied that he had just returned from Iraq and that he wanted to spend time with his family and get back to his job as AG. He then said “There would be time to make a decision.”
He then commented (in a less reported statement) on what a nice man Mike Castle was and what a good job he had done for the state.
There is nothing here to say he is not running; just that he doesn’t want to enter the race today.
The blogs(i.e. MSNBC First Read) took this as proof that he was getting cold feet and the story took off from there.
I take him at his word and fully expect he will enter the race for his father’s seat in due course.
Some of my comments can be taken as somewhat tongue in cheek, as I am a cynical person, but I like this blog because it has lots of well thought out arguments, on both sides, from both Taniel & the commenter’s and it doesn’t tolerate flamers and trolls, which are the bane of most political blogs.
Once again the above comment is mine.
Fritz,
I don’t know if you are a lawyer, but google the phrase “res ipsa loquitur.”