Yep seems it has now.]]>
But Dole had neglected, or at least was perceived to have neglected, home state affairs and was too wrapped up in Republican politics to represent North Carolina. That along with a terrible year for Republicans took her down.
So there are some similarities here as well. Except Reid is polling even worse then Dole.
I guess it’s somewhere between Santorum v. Casey and Dole v. Hagan.]]>
Other then that, I more or less agree with your analysis.]]>
On another point, Santorum made a name as one of the conservative Republican office holders in the country in a state that is quite moderate and leans Democratic at the federal level. Nevada is another centrist state (with a GOP lean until 2008) and Reid’s problem is less over his ideology and more with perhaps Nevadan’s not liking his performance as Senate Majority leader and that perhaps factoring in thier decision to possibly throw Reid out of office. Not as strong as an insentive as pure ideology. And of course Santorum was trailing by double digits from the moment Casey got in, while Reid, while generally trailing, has not been that bad (perhaps if Heller got in it would but he didn’t).
All in all, Republicans have a good chance of repeating 2004 when they got rid of Daschle, but they aren’t quite at the point.
One more thing Cliff: if the election was held today then yes Reid would probably lose, but that is in the context of him not spending any of his money haul and doing anything Nevada-centric, he is right now mostly focused on his job as Senate Majority Leader, and with Obama’s Health Care plan, he will probably be focused on D.C. more than Nevada for the rest of this year.]]>
If nothing changes, Reid loses to any of the above. If he continues to make gaffes and look like he’s Nancy Pelosi’s butler, there is no way in hell he’ll survive.
However, obviously, a LOT can change in 14 months.
I think Amodei might be the best candidate…but I don’t know if it matters much. This isn’t like Thune v. Dashle where Dashle was still relatively popular. This is more like Santorum v. Casey when Santorum was unpopular and would have lost to almost any credible candidate, including the charisma and I.Q. challenged Casey.]]>