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Comments on: A new opponent for Harry Reid
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http://campaigndiaries.com/2009/09/10/amodei-challenges-reid/ Obsessive political analysis Thu, 21 Jun 2018 19:44:54 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.7 hourly 1 By: Mike @ Penny Stock Picks
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http://campaigndiaries.com/2009/09/10/amodei-challenges-reid/comment-page-1/#comment-78668 Mike @ Penny Stock Picks
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Fri, 16 Jul 2010 17:14:29 +0000
http://campaigndiaries.com/?p=9816#comment-78668 Ot, Cliff "However, obviously, a LOT can change in 14 months." Yep seems it has now. Ot, Cliff “However, obviously, a LOT can change in 14 months.”

Yep seems it has now.

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By: Maurice
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http://campaigndiaries.com/2009/09/10/amodei-challenges-reid/comment-page-1/#comment-33543 Maurice
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Sat, 12 Sep 2009 01:36:09 +0000
http://campaigndiaries.com/?p=9816#comment-33543 As with Dodd (who I haven't heard much about in awhile except for the committee chairs), is retirement not feasible? I'm not really sure that he would be selected for majority leader in the next Congress anyway. It would be nice, as he is easily the worst leader the Democrats have had since, oh, say Scott Lucas back in the 81st. I would say that McFarland, Johnson, Mansfield, Byrd, Mitchell and Daschle all did a good job, but still, a retirement would be nice. As with Dodd (who I haven’t heard much about in awhile except for the committee chairs), is retirement not feasible? I’m not really sure that he would be selected for majority leader in the next Congress anyway. It would be nice, as he is easily the worst leader the Democrats have had since, oh, say Scott Lucas back in the 81st. I would say that McFarland, Johnson, Mansfield, Byrd, Mitchell and Daschle all did a good job, but still, a retirement would be nice.

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By: Cliff
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http://campaigndiaries.com/2009/09/10/amodei-challenges-reid/comment-page-1/#comment-33505 Cliff
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Fri, 11 Sep 2009 18:45:23 +0000
http://campaigndiaries.com/?p=9816#comment-33505 You know, the more I think about it, this might not be like Santorum v. Casey so much as it's like Dole v. Hagan. Dole was seen as unbeatable because she was a Washington institution and because the Democrats didn't even get a top recruit, but ended up with some generic State Senator nobody had ever heard of. But Dole had neglected, or at least was perceived to have neglected, home state affairs and was too wrapped up in Republican politics to represent North Carolina. That along with a terrible year for Republicans took her down. So there are some similarities here as well. Except Reid is polling even worse then Dole. I guess it's somewhere between Santorum v. Casey and Dole v. Hagan. You know, the more I think about it, this might not be like Santorum v. Casey so much as it’s like Dole v. Hagan. Dole was seen as unbeatable because she was a Washington institution and because the Democrats didn’t even get a top recruit, but ended up with some generic State Senator nobody had ever heard of.

But Dole had neglected, or at least was perceived to have neglected, home state affairs and was too wrapped up in Republican politics to represent North Carolina. That along with a terrible year for Republicans took her down.

So there are some similarities here as well. Except Reid is polling even worse then Dole.

I guess it’s somewhere between Santorum v. Casey and Dole v. Hagan.

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By: Cliff
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http://campaigndiaries.com/2009/09/10/amodei-challenges-reid/comment-page-1/#comment-33429 Cliff
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Thu, 10 Sep 2009 20:58:21 +0000
http://campaigndiaries.com/?p=9816#comment-33429 Casey was "first tier" only in that he was a popular name. He was a weak candidate and could easily fold like a cheap tent, see his primary race against Ed Rendell in '02. We can debate his IQ, but if you think he's charismatic there's a bridge in San Francisco I'd like to sell you. Other then that, I more or less agree with your analysis. Casey was “first tier” only in that he was a popular name. He was a weak candidate and could easily fold like a cheap tent, see his primary race against Ed Rendell in ‘02. We can debate his IQ, but if you think he’s charismatic there’s a bridge in San Francisco I’d like to sell you.

Other then that, I more or less agree with your analysis.

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By: Jaxx Raxor
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http://campaigndiaries.com/2009/09/10/amodei-challenges-reid/comment-page-1/#comment-33423 Jaxx Raxor
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Thu, 10 Sep 2009 19:03:52 +0000
http://campaigndiaries.com/?p=9816#comment-33423 I agree that this race is more like Santorum v Casey than Thune v Daschle, but there are some differences between the former race the Nevada Senate Race. First of all, Casey Jr. was a top tier challanger, Schumer's first choice (despite his pro-life record) and he effectevly cleared the field once he got in. Mark Amodei is a 2nd tier candidate at best, unlike someone like former Rep. John Porter or Current Rep. Dean Heller, who WOULD have been top tier challangers to Harry Reid (Porter in particular would have been a dangerous opponnet and if he had won reelection in 2008 it almost certaintly that he would have challanged Reid). Amondei doesn't have the stature to clear the primary field, not that a contested primary would be bad for any candidate. I haven't heard anything over Casey having low charism or low I.Q., only that he was more conservative than the average statewide Democrat on social issues (altho less so than his father). On another point, Santorum made a name as one of the conservative Republican office holders in the country in a state that is quite moderate and leans Democratic at the federal level. Nevada is another centrist state (with a GOP lean until 2008) and Reid's problem is less over his ideology and more with perhaps Nevadan's not liking his performance as Senate Majority leader and that perhaps factoring in thier decision to possibly throw Reid out of office. Not as strong as an insentive as pure ideology. And of course Santorum was trailing by double digits from the moment Casey got in, while Reid, while generally trailing, has not been that bad (perhaps if Heller got in it would but he didn't). All in all, Republicans have a good chance of repeating 2004 when they got rid of Daschle, but they aren't quite at the point. One more thing Cliff: if the election was held today then yes Reid would probably lose, but that is in the context of him not spending any of his money haul and doing anything Nevada-centric, he is right now mostly focused on his job as Senate Majority Leader, and with Obama's Health Care plan, he will probably be focused on D.C. more than Nevada for the rest of this year. I agree that this race is more like Santorum v Casey than Thune v Daschle, but there are some differences between the former race the Nevada Senate Race. First of all, Casey Jr. was a top tier challanger, Schumer’s first choice (despite his pro-life record) and he effectevly cleared the field once he got in. Mark Amodei is a 2nd tier candidate at best, unlike someone like former Rep. John Porter or Current Rep. Dean Heller, who WOULD have been top tier challangers to Harry Reid (Porter in particular would have been a dangerous opponnet and if he had won reelection in 2008 it almost certaintly that he would have challanged Reid). Amondei doesn’t have the stature to clear the primary field, not that a contested primary would be bad for any candidate. I haven’t heard anything over Casey having low charism or low I.Q., only that he was more conservative than the average statewide Democrat on social issues (altho less so than his father).

On another point, Santorum made a name as one of the conservative Republican office holders in the country in a state that is quite moderate and leans Democratic at the federal level. Nevada is another centrist state (with a GOP lean until 2008) and Reid’s problem is less over his ideology and more with perhaps Nevadan’s not liking his performance as Senate Majority leader and that perhaps factoring in thier decision to possibly throw Reid out of office. Not as strong as an insentive as pure ideology. And of course Santorum was trailing by double digits from the moment Casey got in, while Reid, while generally trailing, has not been that bad (perhaps if Heller got in it would but he didn’t).

All in all, Republicans have a good chance of repeating 2004 when they got rid of Daschle, but they aren’t quite at the point.

One more thing Cliff: if the election was held today then yes Reid would probably lose, but that is in the context of him not spending any of his money haul and doing anything Nevada-centric, he is right now mostly focused on his job as Senate Majority Leader, and with Obama’s Health Care plan, he will probably be focused on D.C. more than Nevada for the rest of this year.

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By: Cliff
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http://campaigndiaries.com/2009/09/10/amodei-challenges-reid/comment-page-1/#comment-33407 Cliff
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Thu, 10 Sep 2009 17:41:38 +0000
http://campaigndiaries.com/?p=9816#comment-33407 Bottom line: If nothing changes, Reid loses to any of the above. If he continues to make gaffes and look like he's Nancy Pelosi's butler, there is no way in hell he'll survive. However, obviously, a LOT can change in 14 months. I think Amodei might be the best candidate...but I don't know if it matters much. This isn't like Thune v. Dashle where Dashle was still relatively popular. This is more like Santorum v. Casey when Santorum was unpopular and would have lost to almost any credible candidate, including the charisma and I.Q. challenged Casey. Bottom line:

If nothing changes, Reid loses to any of the above. If he continues to make gaffes and look like he’s Nancy Pelosi’s butler, there is no way in hell he’ll survive.

However, obviously, a LOT can change in 14 months.

I think Amodei might be the best candidate…but I don’t know if it matters much. This isn’t like Thune v. Dashle where Dashle was still relatively popular. This is more like Santorum v. Casey when Santorum was unpopular and would have lost to almost any credible candidate, including the charisma and I.Q. challenged Casey.

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