Campaign Diaries

Second summer poll finds Reid in big trouble, whoever his opponent

Two weeks after Mason Dixon poll shockingly found Harry Reid sinking against a low-profile Republicans, Research 2000 confirms that the Majority Leader’s standing is weak enough that the GOP does not need a top-tier challenger to make him vulnerable: Weighed down by a brutal approval rating (36-52), Reid trails the two Republicans who have attracted the most buzz in recent weeks - 45% to 40% against Danny Tarkanian, 44% and 41% against party chairwoman Sue Lowden.

Those margins might be tighter than they were in Mason Dixon, but that’s hardly a comforting thought for Democrats. Not only is their Senate leader struggling to break the 40% mark - a dreadful sign for any incumbent - but this is the second poll in a row to find him trailing a real estate professional whose main political experience is his crushing defeat in the 2006 Secretary of State contest.

Worse still for Reid: Lowden, who is arguably more suited to wage a competitive race, now appears to be a probable contender - something that was not true two weeks ago. Lowden just resigned her position at the chair of the Nevada Republican Party, a move that is being taken as a clear sign that she is preparing to jump in the Senate race. (Given that she will face a competitive primary, it would be unseemly of her to run while remaining at the head of the state party.)

It might still be difficult to conceive of the well-financed Reid losing to either of these candidates, but the time has come to admit that the NRSC is succeeding at putting this Senate race in play and to do with Nevada what we did with Arkansas last month - put it on the map and leave it there.

A side note about Nevada: It is striking that the state’s two Republican officeholders are (unsurprisingly) far more unpopular than Reid. Ensign’s post-scandal numbers are in the gutter (28-53) while Jim Gibbons is holding on to the title of most unpopular governor in the country (17-61). Needless to say, Gibbons has have no credible hope of winning re-election next year, the main question being whether he loses in the primary or the general election.

Rand Paul’s strength is again the takeaway of a Kentucky poll

Research 2000 also tested Kentucky’s Senate race and found strikingly similar results as SUSA’s August survey. As expected, Republican Secretary of State Trey Grayson is the slight favorite to replace Jim Bunning but the two Democratic candidates are definitely in contention. As expected, the Democratic primary is highly competitive. But what is not expected is that Rand Paul is looking so able to slow down the Grayson coronation.

Posting a better favorability rating than any of his three Senate rivals (39-16), Paul manages to get 25% of the Republican primary, versus 40% for Grayson. The Secretary of State does not have a daunting name recognition advantage, which reduces the significance of Paul’s strong showing, but it certainly makes him a contender. With early signs that he might be able to replicate some of his father’s fundraising prowess, he should be able to stay competitive. After all, McConnell’s numbers (44-51) are too weak for his support alone to guarantee Grayson the nomination, not to mention that the Senate Minority Leader is only expressing his preferences tacitly.

In the general election, Grayson holds a narrow 45% to 41% lead against Dan Mongiardo and a 46% to 40% lead against Jack Conway; both Democrats have slight edges against Paul, 42% to 37% for Mongiardo and 41% to 37% for Conway. With all three of the statewide officials posting decent favorability ratings, the poll at this point is coming down to voters’ partisan preference - and here Democrats will have to play a subtle balancing act: While their local party is popular (Governor Beshear is relatively popular and Democrats just picked up a state Senate seat), their national party is not (Obama’s favorability rating is down to only 34%). Of course, that’s nothing new in states like Kentucky and West Virginia, and it hasn’t prevented Democrats from winning before.

Why so many undecideds in Pennsylvania?

There is nothing more usual than having large numbers of undecideds in a race involving little-known contenders. But when a third of the electorate refrains from expressing an opinion on a five-term Senator, it’s hard to know what to make of the poll, which is why I am leaving Franklin & Marshall’s latest take on Pennsylvania at the bottom of this post. The pollster finds Arlen Specter posting leads against Joe Sestak in the Democratic primary (37% to 11%) and against Pat Toomey in the general election (37% to 29%). Toomey leads a match-up with Sestak, 26% to 22%.

When a race has such wide disparities in name recognition - 77% of respondents have an opinion of Specter, 28% of Toomey and 17% of Sestak - a pollster’s refusal to push undecideds will have big consequence. In this case, this explains Sestak’s general election underperformance. The good news for Specter critics is that the longtime senator is stuck at low levels of support, is widely unpopular (his approval rating is down to a dismal 35-54) and only 34% of respondents say he deserves to win re-election. Before helping Toomey in the general election, voters’ growing hostility towards Specter will help Sestak in the primary - but we will have to wait for him to increase his name recognition before we see numbers move.