One of the most powerful U.S. Senators in the country’s history and one of liberalism’s loudest champions in the latter half of the century, Ted Kennedy passed away tonight.
Ever since being diagnosed with brain cancer in 2008, Kennedy had retreated from public life; his occasional appearances, for instance at the Democratic Convention in August, attracted wide attention. But his failure to attend his sister Eunice’s funeral last month had alerted us that his condition was deteriorating, but news of his death still comes as a tragic surprise that is sure to plunge the Democratic Party in mourning in the days ahead.
I will leave you to other, more detailed sources for a look at Kennedy’s life and legacy - from his 1980 presidential run to his influential Senate career - and use this space to quickly detail what is this blog’s primary beat - election news, and in this case succession details.
To fill Kennedy’s seat, Massachusetts will host a special election since the governor has no appointment rights since Democrats stripped Mitt Romney’s of that prerogative to ensure he would not replace John Kerry with a Republican in the run-up to the 2004 presidential contest. The law requires a special election to be called within 145 and 16o days of the vacancy. Applied to this case, I believe this puts us in a window that starts on January 18th and ends on February 1st.
Thus, mark your calendars for a Senate race either on Tuesday, January 19th or Tuesday, January 26th.
The state has not had an open seat race since John Kerry’s first election, and countless Massachusetts Democrats have clear ambitions they’ll now be likely to act upon. Since the race will be a special election, no House member will have to give up his or her seat to run for Senate. With nothing to lose, many are not likely to hold back so expect a crowded Democratic primary.
Until late January, then, the seat will remain vacant. Just like week, Kennedy had asked the state legislature to amend state law to allow the governor to appoint a temporary replacement who could serve during those 145-160 days, but the speed with which death struck seems to have come as a surprise even to him - making tonight’s news look that much more tragic. I cannot imagine that Massachusetts Democrats would be willing to change the succession law and apply it to an already existing vacancy - nor am I sure whether such retroactive legislation is even feasible.
Thus, until the end of January, Massachusetts will only have one Senator, the Senate will only have 99 members and Democrats will have at their disposition 59 votes. Since it takes 3/5th of all sitting Senators to break a filibuster, passing cloture votes will still require 60 votes (0.6*99=59.4, so 59 is not enough), which means that Democrats no longer have the supermajority they gained when Arlen Specter switched parties and Al Franken was seated. Since it had been months Kennedy was unable to travel to Washington, this should not substantially change the chamber’s dynamics, but it does require Democrats to dig a bit deeper to pass health care reform, which for decades had been Teddy Kennedy’s priority.
I may sound ghoulish but perhaps Kennedy offered one last service to his lifelong goal of universal health care. Perhaps his death will galvanize the Democrats and will provide what someone else characterized as a moral kick in the pants to pass meaningful reform legislation.
On another note, with the filibuster proof majority now officialy gone, Obama and Senate Democrats will probably be even more willing to use reconciliation. Especially since the meme of “Obstructionist Republicans” is once again operative.
As for the Massachusets law, only someone with knowledge of the state’s constitution can enlighten us if a change in the law is possible. Remember that in Illinois there was talk about stripping Blago of his appointment power AFTER Obama had resigned, so apparently any change would be effective in a current vacancy.
Panos,
I do think there is a difference between the MA and IL situations. In Massachusetts, once there is a vacancy that 145-160 period towards a special election starts - so the replacement mechanism has already been stirred. Changing the law would interrupt this and force an already started process to come to a halt. That was not the case in Illinois: As long as Blagojevich had not made his appointment, stripping him of that power the law would not have forced a change of course - though invalidating Burris’s appointment after it was made was not considered feasible.
I’m not sure if this fully makes sense, but I also think it probably does not matter: Even if this was constitutionally permitted, I cannot imagine state Democrats will judge it politically feasible.
Ted Kennedy’s death is a tradgey for all. Not just for Democrats: Kennedy was the most likely of liberal Senators to work with Republicans and he will be sorely missed by them (I believe Orrin Hatch of Utah is among Kennedy’s closest Republican friends).
On the politics of all of this:
I believe that Rasumssen did a poll showing that a majority of MA residents agreed with Kennedy that a change to the law allowing for a temporary appointment before the special election is warrented, however the Democratic leaders are still feareful of a backlash so I doubt there will be a push to the law.
Panos, on Reconciliation, the plan that had been discussed was splitting the bill in two parts: one half primarly on the budgetory aspects (with reconcilation), and the other have with non-money provisions, including the public option and the no-prexisting provisions clause. Reconcilation can avoid filibusters, but it can only work on bugetory legistation, with anything unrelated being thrown out. So therefore Democrats would have to convince at least one republican to at least not filibuster on the public option (if there is one) and on regulations dening the ability for Insurance to prevent people from prexisting conditions from obtaining health care, which may be a tall order, even from the ladies from Maine. While the public option may eventually have to go away if Collins or Snowe requests it for their support, the other (some say more important) regulations could go through, and I doubt that liberal Democrats in the house would block a non-public option bill if it had everything else they wanted.
On the special election: I don’t know how it works (i.e is it a non-partisan two round system, just one non-partisan election, or the seperate party primary and regular general election), but Democrats are nearly certain to keep the seat in their hands. According to politico, Edward Markley and Barney Frank are unlikely to run because they chair powerful commitees in the house, but I think most of the rest of the delegation will jump at the opportunity and run, especially since they don’t need to get rid of their house seats. The MA Attorny general Martha Coakley is also likely to run.
The Republician bench, meanwhile is incredibly weak. The only reason why Republicans are competive against Deval Patrick is of his extreme unpopularity (and the unusual tendency for voters to usually put in Republicans in the governor’s mansion.) Neither of Patrick’s GOP opponnets are going to drop out of the Governor’s race, and I don’t think any prominent Republican is going to run in the Senate Special election. In fact, I wouldn’t be suprised if not a single Republican files for the special election. I think it is much more likely for Republicans to try to take a U.S. house seat in another special election if the winner of the special election is a current member of the House. Although it would they would be the underdogs no matter which seat, it would be much easier than trying to run in a statewide election agaisnt a popular Democrat.
In Ted Kennedy’s death, Americans have lost another of their John Adams that helped to keep the U.S. people focused upon self government, the power of self government, and the purpose of self government.
It would be interesting to see how other U.S. Senators characterize his 46 years in the U.S. Senate since for many, he was the foe they could not overcome, and for others, the friend they had to have.
Few other persons in politics could engender either the fear and hatred or the love and dedication that represents the struggle for self government that is democracy if it is done in an authentic manner. Ted Kennedy was in the center of every issue and every struggle that mattered in America, and never a bystander. He took the good with the bad, and survived it all, and often came out ahead - through the respect of a populace who couldn’t ignore him and his vision for America earned with every last breath through the fires of endurance and the purity of political dedication.
He earned all the respect he deserved and received by making himself the Senator he was, and committed himself to the task that the U.S. Senate was made for - the glorious slugfest over political direction done by the strength of spirit and the humility of opposition.
“Changing the law would interrupt this and force an already started process to come to a halt.”
I’m not a lawyer, but is this necessarily the case? If Massachusetts goes with Kennedy’s plan, they wouldn’t be “halting” the special election process, they’d simply be empowering the Governor to name a temporary replacement until that process concludes.
It sounds like Massachusetts will at least consider the idea, though I suppose there will be a court challenge issued if it passes.
http://www.bostonherald.com/news/politics/view/20090826successor_plan_gains_steam_speaker_robert_a_deleo_ok_with_giving_gov_patrick_appoint_power/
Chicago Joe and Panos,
To my surprise, it looks like you might very well be right as Massachusetts Democrats sound open to changing the law - more open, in fact, than they were last week. We’ll see how this progresses.
I think Joe is right. The process that will lead to the special election will continue as expected.
The Massachusets legislature will simply amend the law so to allow the governor to temporarily fill the vacancy until then.
All things said and done, my bet is that the legislature approves Kennedy’s request, John Olver agrees to retire in January, and Jim McGovern wins the Democratic primary.