I think that refrain from 1992 will have a big impact on 2010, which is still a political lifetime away. If jobs are coming back and there are no other singular events, Dems may hold or even pick up a few seats even without a comprehensive health care bill (and I think something will pass just because it would be a political disaster to do nothing, though the scope of the legislation may be limited). If job losses continue to mount as we go into the election, the chances of substantial Republican pickups in both chambers may be substantial.
But there’s a long ways to go between now and then, and plenty of chances for other events to intervene. Any optimism or pessimism by either side seems a bit premature to me.]]>