Over the past few months, Democrats have seen plenty of worrisome Senate polls - from Mike Castle’s solid lead in Delaware and Chris Dodd’s trailing in Connecticut to Mark Kirk’s competitiveness in Illinois and Michael Bennet’s indubitable vulnerability in Colorado. But a new survey of Nevada’s Senate race is perhaps the scariest the DSCC has had to deal with yet this cycle.
The Senate Majority Leader is left trailing by double-digits a real estate professional who has twice before failed to win political office.
Now, it just so happens that his last name is Tarkanian, which is enough to give him name recognition many challengers can only dream of: His father is Jerry Tarkanian, who for 20 years was UNLV’s (in)famous basketball coach - even leading the team to a NCAA championship. Once a basketball star, his son lost a state Senate race in 2004 (54% to 46%) and the 2006 Secretary of State race (48% to 40%). Yet, here he is leading Harry Reid by a stunning 49% to 38%.
(The poll was not released by Rasmussen, whose models some of you have objected to, nor was it was not commissioned by a politician’s supporters, as the most recent Nevada poll had been. Rather, it was conducted by Mason Dixon. That said, let’s also specify that the poll’s margin of error is uncommonly large: Only 400 registered voters were tested, which resulted in a MoE of 6%.)
Most worrisome for Democrats is that Tarkanian has already declared his candidacy: We spent so long talking about the long list of Republicans who have declined to run - Porter, Krolicki, Heller, Heck - that we might have missed the significance of Tarkanian’s late July decision to jump in the race. Consider that Tarkanian performs slightly better than Rep. Dean Heller, a former three-term Secretary of State. Republicans considered their top prospect against Reid but he “only” leads 50% to 40%.
The poll also tested state party Chairman Sue Lowden, who leads Reid 45% to 40%. (That’s within the MoE.)
So has the NRSC finally succeeded at putting Nevada’s Senate race in play? Tarkanian and Lowden might not have been the NRSC’s dream candidate, and it might be difficult to imagine as experienced a politician as Reid losing to a candidate whose main qualifications appear to be his basketball-derived notoriety and the 40% he received in the 2006 Secretary of State contest. Yet, according to this poll either should be enough to ensure Reid faces a highly competitive race.
We have long known that Reid is highly unpopular - that’s why he was considered the most vulnerable Democratic Senator when the cycle started. The only reason we have been considering him less vulnerable is the series of NRSC recruitment failures. But the political inexperience or low-profile of his challengers should not be enough to protect Reid, who is posting a dismal 37% favorability rating.
When an incumbent’s favorability is that low, it can matter little who his opponent is. And it’s not like Tarkanian does not bring potentially decisive assets to the race: His name recognition should obviously a big help, and his prior campaign experienes, albeit unsuccessful, could ensure he does not go down the gaffe-prone route of Arkansas Republicans.
The thing I can’t figure out is why Sandoval is running for Governor. He’s gotta win a primary and a general against people who aren’t nearly as damaged as Harry Reid.
He’d essentially have an open field for Senate. No primary, and he’d steamroll Harry. He wouldn’t even stand a chance.
The only reasons I can think of:
1. I think he might have young kids…might not want the commute.
2. He’s thinking too far ahead and thinks the first Hispanic Republican Governor from a swing state can be the first Hispanic President. That’s certainly possible, but it’s thinking too far in the future.
Anyhow, I think just about anybody can beat Harry Reid, but if Sandoval jumped in, Harry mine as well not even bother to run for re-election.
Democrats need to just let Reid go. He has been nothing but a disaster for them. If healthcare reform fails, he deserves to lose.
Cliff: The thing I can’t figure out is why Sandoval is running for Governor.
Not all offices are interchangeable, even if they’re both statewide elections. There’s a big difference between being an executive and a legislator, and some people are more cut out for one role or the other. Sandoval has been both (a state legislator and the state Attorney General), and maybe he just wants to be an executive. There’s a lot more control when you’re at the top of one branch of government than when you’re one out of 100, and a low-ranking one at that.
An example would be Bloomberg. He likes running things, whether it’s his own business or the NY City government. He’d probably be a lousy Senator, though.
dsimon,
I suppose that’s true. I personally wish, for the good of the country, he’d take on Reid. But I’m sure he’ll be a good Governor should he win as well, and I think he’s got to be considered the odds on favorite right now.
dsimon, You are absolutely right offices are not interchangeable - as we keep seeing in North Carolina with Democrats in executive positions (Easley, Cooper, Moore) uninterested in serving in the Senate. Just like Easley, Oklahoma Governor Henry has said he can’t imagine himself in the Senate.
Ron, I also agree with you that Reid’s failure to keep Senate Democrats in line has been one of the major obstacles to health care reform. In fact, a broader indictement of Reid’s tenure is probably in order. Sure, Senators are notoriously unruly no matter who is leading them, but Reid’s vision of the chamber as a collection of individual Senators who should not be fettered is making the situation even trickier for progressive reform. There are ways for a leadership to keep Senators in line, after all - committee assignments, fundraising, allowing legislation/amendments to come to the floor… Specifically on the issue of health care, I can’t imagine that a Senate Majority Leader Schumer would have left Max Baucus this much lee-way or that he would not have tried anything to counter Baucus-Bingaman-Conrad’s dilatory tactics.
Mason-Dixon has history of being Republican leaning, even more than Rasmussen. While Rasmussen was fairly close to the actual results as the 2008 election came closer, Mason-Dixon in general had a distinct Republican tilt. For example, one of Rasmussen’s last polls of North Carolina showed McCain with a one point lead over Obama (and Obama narrowly won that state) while Mason-Dixon had McCain with a fairly comfortable lead in the mid-single digits (I don’t remember exactly the exact margin). So I want to see more polls showing Reed in such trouble before we conclude this is truly a competive seat.
One thing that seems fishy is that Tarkanian is doing better than Heller. To be granted, Heller reaches the 50% mark while Tarkanian doesn’t but it still very intersting. I think that Tarkanian is doing better than Heller and Lowdon because of the reputation of his father, and constrasting that with Reid’s repuation must make Tarkanian look very good. However, while Reid may not be a good majority leader, he is a very crafty politican in Nevada, and despite his large deficit right now according to Mason-Dixon, he would dispatch of the politically inexperienced Tarkanian quite easily, while it would have been consideribly harder for Reid to do so with Dean Heller or to a lesser exent, Sue Lowden. So Republicans shouldn’t get too giddy over this poll.
A point that has been missing from commentary related to these polling results is that Sue Lowden’s “good” poll numbers do not reflect on her being a solid candidate - no one know’s who Sue Lowden is in Nevada besides a small minority of people who follow politics closely.
Both Lowden and Tarkanian numbers are a result of not wanting to vote for Harry Reid - Lowden lost a very basic race in the 90’s (as Reid has highlighted) and Tarkanian has run numerous times for SOS and lost…
Harry Reid is a strong campaigner and these initial poll numbers will shift dramatically once campaigns become highly active and its crucial to find a candidate in the primary who is can stand up to Reid and fight for the senate seat.
Thomas, no one is going to go up against the United States Majority leader in the Democratic primary.
I just read the State Senator Meggie Carlton might be up for replacing Reid. By 2010, she’ll have a dozen years (term-limited) in the legislature, and she’ll only be fifty-three. Seems to be moderately liberal (along the lines of Shelley Berkley, not Dina Titus. By the end of this year, I doubt Reid will still be running. And if he transfers a good amount of his campaign coffers, Democrats can probably keep the seat. And that would be a good idea - Majority Leader Schumer.
Anyone who thinks they can force Reid out, or beat him in the primary, is delusional. Reid IS the Democratic establishment in Nevada. He bought it, paid for it, and owns it. Nobody will challenge his dominance of it unless he’s booted from office.
Jaxx - my post may not have been the most clear.
I was saying that a strong challenger, from the republican side, must emerge from the primaries in order to defeat Reid. Relying on an early poll does not provide the best evidence that Lowden or Tarkanian are up for the challenge.