Campaign Diaries

Iowa and Arkansas have fallen off the Senate radar. In the former, not only is it clear that Chuck Grassley will not retire but Tom Vilsack, the Democrats’ best hope, is serving in Obama’s Cabinet; in the latter, the most promising Republican, Tim Griffin, unexpectedly ruled out a run while the rest of the state party sank in an unending series of disqualifying gaffes. With new challengers announcing candidacies today, it’s worth taking a look at these races again: Might they help AR or IA rise to the top?

Undaunted by early gaffe, Coleman follows through in Arkansas

We met Coleman a few months ago, when he raised eyebrows for declaring that you need “a visa and shots” to go to southeast Arkansas. He later claimed his comments should be taken as a celebration of the state’s diversity. This cringe-worthy incident gained even more coverage from the fact that it came just a few weeks after state Senator Kim Hendren sabotaged his nascent campaign by referring to Chuck Schumer as “that Jew” and digging himself in a deeper hole in subsequent attempts to apologize.

While Hendren put his campaign on hold after that incident, Coleman doesn’t seem to have gotten second thoughts: He just announced he would challenge Lincoln in 2010.

Apart from his apparent inability to control his thoughts, Coleman is the type of second-tier candidate Republicans should hope for at this point. It’s now clear they won’t land a prominent name so why not go with a wealthy businessman with political connections and the potential to self-fund? The CEO of Safe Foods Corp., Coleman’s business background could be a boost in a state that is hostile to labor. Coleman looks to be staunchly conservative, which could help excite the grassroots. And his ties to Huckabee - he managed the his unsuccessful Senate campaign in 1992 - could help convince the still-popular former Governor to get involved in the race, perhaps even open up his fundraising network.

And yet, it’s hard to get past the way in which we first met Coleman. Such unfiltered rhetoric is what parties risk when they rely on a businessman who has suddenly developed political ambitions. (See Democrat Jack Davis’s repeated runs in NY-26.) Coleman might have managed a statewide campaign in the early 1990s, but it remains to be seen whether he’s ready for the public spotlight and how he will hold up under pressure once Lincoln unleashes the millions she has stocked up.

If the environment turns nasty for Democrats or if Coleman catches fire - fundraising-wise, grassroots-wise and on the trail, this businessman could give Lincoln a run for her money and make the race well worth watching. But the NRSC would still be well-advised to try to recruit Gilbert Baker, a state Senator who would not be the most formidable of contenders but should at least prove more reliable.

A second challenger for Grassley

The prospect of running against five-term Senator Chuck Grassley is understandably not getting Iowa Democrats terribly excited. For now, Grassley had drawn only one candidate - party activist Bob Krause, who chairs the the Iowa Democratic Veterans’ Caucus. Krause’s enthusiasm does not seem to be quite enough to catch the DSCC’s attention, and another Democrat is now attempting to get some traction: Tom Fiegen, a former state Senator who now works as a bankruptcy lawyer.

Fiegen can point that he has successfully ran for office before - and that surely raises his credibility: In 2000, Fiegen won a surprising upset against a five-term Republican incumbent who had served as minority leader. Yet, he soon fell victim of redistricting: In 2002, district redrawing forced him to against an incumbent Republican, a race Fiegen lost. He also lost a subsequent attempt to return to the legislature.

At least, Fiegen has experienced the rigors of campaigning and should avoid committing Coleman-like rookie mistakes. Voters’ distaste in the political establishment could give him an opening to exploit against Grassley. “[People are] wondering if this is the same Chuck Grassley that has represented them in Washington since 1975,” he said. In launching his campaign, Fiegen highlighted the issue of health care, saying the country needed a public option, and Grassley’s ties to the finance industry in what could be the Democrats’ response to Republican attacks on Chris Dodd.

But a two-year stint in the political legislature does not give Fiegen a big enough profile or extensive enough connections to mount a top-tier challenge against a 30-year Senator who hasn’t been held under 66% in any of his 4 prior re-election races.

After all, even if the environment favors Democrats, it’s highly unlikely to be as favorable as in 2008, where they could just recruit a low-profile candidate and hope the GOP’s toxic brand would do the rest. Now, unless a successful health care reform becomes so popular that Democrats go after those who opposed the public option - a scenario we cannot dismiss - Grassley will remain highly favored and Fiegen’s candidacy will not catapult Iowa anywhere near the top of the Democrats’ priority list.