Campaign Diaries

Update: In a fascinating coda to the story, The Las Vegas Sun reports that Heller received a call last week from none other than George W. Bush, who urged him to challenge Reid! Apparently, Bush’s influence on his party isn’t as strong as it was in 2002 and 2004; perhaps Republicans who’ll have to do the running don’t think Bush can provide that big a boost for them during the campaign.

Original story: Rep. Dean Heller was the last prominent Nevada Republican who was considering taking on Senator Harry Reid. No more: In what is a huge relief for Democrats, Heller told NRSC officials that he was ruling out a Senate run. While no public poll has tested this match-up, Reid’s dismal approval rating leaves no doubt that he would have been be highly vulnerable to Heller’s challenge.

(An important side note: This does not mean that Heller’s NV-02 won’t host an open seat race next year since Heller is also considering the Governor’s race, which he doesn’t seem to have ruled out.)

Heller’s decision is one more step in the Nevada GOP’s fall from grace. Back in December, Republicans had high hopes for this Senate seat, which I had ranked as the 8th most vulnerable of the cycle. Since then, Reid’s prospects have shot up dramatically as his most credible rivals have one by one been eliminated: Lieutenant Governor Brian Krolicki was indicted in December and Jon Porter, Joe Heck and now Heller have ruled out a run. This leaves Republicans with a slate of second-to-third tier contenders.

Add to that the collapsing ratings of Governor Jim Gibbons and the fallout over Senator John Ensign’s still mysterious scandal, and Nevada Republicans are certainly not at their best.

Yes, the NRSC did land its first challenger to Reid this week, but certainly not the type of credible contender they were hoping for: Businessman Danny Tarkington, whose main claim to fame looks to be that he is the son of former UNLV coach Jerry Tarkanian, jumped in the race but he is unlikely to get very far. While the GOP has suffered numerous setbacks, it remains unlikely they’ll have to settle for Tarkanian.

In the wake of Heller’s decision, a new name has popped up in Republican circles: state party chair Sue Lowden. Now, I want to know more about whether Lowden is at all considering the race before taking the buzz that’s now surrounding her seriously. Indeed, this is all based on the results of a poll conducted by Nevada Republicans, led by strategist Robert Uithoven, who are looking to draw Lowden in the race. The poll shows Reid trailing 48% to 42%.

While this is a partisan poll, I do not necessarily doubt its findings: Non-partisan surveys have shown that Reid’s approval rating is so low that we shouldn’t be surprised to see him trailing a generic Republican who could pass the credibility test. Nor does anyone doubt the fact that Nevada will host a competitive race if the GOP does manage to recruit a serious contender who can fundraise and display campaigning skills.

But since Lowen’s name was not mentioned until this week, what I would like to know is whether Lowden herself signaled that she wanted the poll taken and its results leaked as a trial balloon, or if she is just a spectator to Uithoven’s efforts to draft her in the race? In other words, should we think that there is still one prominent Republican looking at the race or was Heller’s exit the final step in the GOP’s fall?

Even if Lowden does jump in, it remains to be seen whether she would have the profile, the campaigning skills and the fundraising abilities to mount a credible challenge to one of the country’s most powerful Democrats. Look at the other contenders who are mentioned: former state Rep. Angle looks too focused on championing social conservatism to be that strong a candidate while banker John Chachas is based in New York.

The bottom line is that, while Reid is not out of the woods by any means, no candidate Republicans can still hope to recruit will be in the same league as Porter, Krolicki or Heller.