The field is now set for the special election in New York’s 23rd district. The GOP selected Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava in July. The Conservative Party settled on Doug Hoffman last week. And tonight, Democrats chose their own flag bearer, choosing little-known attorney Bill Owens over a more politically experienced candidate.
The only problem: At this point, there is still no vacancy - and it’s anyone’s guess when the election will be held.
A delay in McHugh’s confirmation
Rep. John McHugh looked to be well on its way towards an easy confirmation as Army Secretary when the Senate’s Armed Services Committee approved him by a voice vote, but he has now hit an unexpected roadblock: Kansas Senators Pat Roberts and Sam Brownback have placed a hold on McHugh’s confirmation. They are doing so to protest the Obama administration’s plans to potentially move prisons from Guantanamo to Kansas’s Fort Leavenworth.
Add to this John McCain’s objections about $160,000 in campaign contributions McHugh has received from a defense lobbying firm now under investigation, and it looks like Republicans has decided to play hardball with the nomination of one of their own to Obama’s Cabinet.
It’s highly unlikely McHugh’s nomination will ever face serious risk, but individual senators hold enough power that Roberts and Brownback’s hold could delay the confirmation for a bit. How long exactly might depend on how quickly the administration responds to their demands for a briefing, and perhaps whether they make any concessions. In any case, the addition adds to the uncertainty surrounding the timing of this special election; the schedule will be announced by Governor Paterson once McHugh effectively resigns.
Conservatives pick Hoffman, Democrats select Owens
The timing might be unclear but the parties are already in campaign mode. Within days of Scozzafava’s emergence as the GOP candidate, the Independence Party announced it would allow her to run on their line - a big boost for the Republican (in NY-20, the IP had endorsed Scott Murphy.) Yet, the Conservative Party expressed deep anger and signaled it could not back such a socially liberal contender (Scozzafava voted for gay marriage in the state Assembly). Last week, they went as far as to select a candidate of their own: Doug Hoffman, an accountant who had earlier sought the GOP nomination, will be on the ballot.
Thus, this special election will feature a three-way race - and that could prove a major problem for Scozzafava. In 2008, McHugh received 9,243 votes - or 6% of his total number of votes - from the Conservative Party line. That much could be enough to cost Scozzafava the election - especially if Hoffman gains some traction by attacking the Republican’s conservative credentials.
As for Democrats, county chairmen met tonight to select their nominee. They settled on attorney Bill Owens, a former Air Force captain who has a local public television program about business issues. A registered independent, Owens was selected over John Sullivan, the former mayor of Oswego who now serves as deputy Medicaid inspector general, and over attorney Brian McGrath.
Why this choice? Perhaps Sullivan failed to impress his audience, perhaps Owens holds some name recognition due to his television program, and perhaps he pledged to fund his own campaign - just like Scott Murphy had done in NY-20. If so, this would be the second New York special election in a row in which a candidate’s wealth will have been the main factor in deciding the Democratic nomination.
Owens is far from a dream candidate, but we have known Democrats would have to settle with a lightweight ever since Aubertine ruled out a run. Barack Obama might have won the district by 5%, but Republicans have long dominated local politics and Democrats had no bench from which to choose. Even then, we will have to see whether their selection is an inspired one given that Sullivan looked like a more obvious choice.
NY-23’s early picture is thus very similar to that of NY-20: Republicans chose an Assembly member and Democrats picked a little-known and potentially self-funding attorney. The district has been trending blue - 5% Obama blue - and conservatives could cause trouble for the GOP, but recruitment differences typically do matter and Democrats are now left hoping that lighting will strike twice.
Update: Politicker gives us more about Owens. As I said above, he is a registered independent; he is opposed to gay-marriage, placing him to Scozzafava’s right; and he was the only one among the 11 contenders vying for the Democratic nod to oppose a public option on health care! In short, it looks like the district leaders have selected a pure Blue Dog - and this in a 5% Obama district.
No wonder the netroots seem to welcome a Scozzafava victory.
She seems to be well to the left not only of the entire Republican caucus but of many Democrats too.
As a matter of fact it might be more productive for Democrats to give her a free pass and after she is elected try to convince her to switch parties (or face an unfavorable redistricting).
Panos, it’s probable that the district will be eliminated post-2010 redistricting, whoever wins the fall election. New York will lose a seat (or two?), that seat probably has to come from upstate, and the most freshman member of the delegation is likely to take the hit. (One hope for the winner would be for some other incumbent to lose the 2010 race.)
Even if something resembling NY-23 is left standing, I find it more than likely that the new representative will be thrown in a race against another sitting congressman.
I find it most likely that Christopher Lee will be forced into a hard race. He seems to have the better set for a long carreer than Scozzafava does. There is even a possability that their districts could be combined into one stretching the whole upper state boarder.
Maurice, I think it really depends on who wins this special election. If Owens prevails, state Dems will probably be less likely to look at NY-23 and could indeed try to dislodge Chris Lee - even potentially Peter King, though that would be harder to do.
(Of course, this all depends on whether Democrats keep control of the state Senate and of the governorship. If they lose either, they could be forced into a compromise map that would make it even more likely that the winner of NY-23 will be eliminated.)
I’m glad to see that the Republicans are starting to play hardball on some lesser appointments on Obama. This one as well as some of the state dept appointments due to the administration’s Honduras policy.
Preston: “I’m glad to see that the Republicans are starting to play hardball on some lesser appointments on Obama.”
Except this appointment has nothing to do with the candidate’s qualifications, nor does it relate to the issue they’re complaining about. They’re depriving the Army of a Secretary because…they afraid of putting detainees in a maximum security facility? And who exactly was calling loudest to “support the troops” all these years?
If Republicans want to fight the appointment on the merits, fine. But doing so on an unrelated issue is a disservice to the nation. And yes, it’s wrong when Democrats play the same game.