New polls of the two November 2009 contests find a very ugly picture for Democrats, as well as mounting hints that the Democratic base will turn out in far small numbers than conservative-minded voters.
Turnout disparity plagued Republicans through 2008: It proved to be the main reason Democrats picked-up three red-leaning House districts in special elections and McCain’s desperate need to find a solution to this problem led him to choose Sarah Palin as his running-mate, which led to all sorts of other complications. Yet, it’s now the Democrats’ turn to face the same problem.
While they managed to motivate their base in NY-20’s special election in March, they endured weak showings in lower-profile special elections throughout the spring - including in Virginia’s Fairfax County, where weak Democratic turnout led to surprising results in local races. Will the same phenomenon now occur in Virginia and in New Jersey?
Virginia
In a new PPP survey, Bob McDonnell has surged from a 6% lead to a 14% lead, 51% to 37%. This only confirms the results of last week’s SUSA survey, which found the Republican ahead by 15%.
Worst still, both polls diagnose the same problem for Creigh Deeds. While Obama won Virginia by five last November, respondents say they voted for McCain 52% to 41%; the numbers were similar in SUSA’s poll (51% to 42%). In short: Democratic-leaning voters are not planning to turn out in sufficient numbers. The coalition that gave Obama his November victory is unmotivated while conservatives are pumped up.
Add to that the fact that the Democratic brand is not as popular as it was last November since the party is now in power, and it is tough to figure out how Creigh Deeds can overcome this huge a deficit. Sure, he has some room to grow among African-Americans (he is at 64%) and he can hope to bring independents back in his camp; but the fundamental challenge he faces - turnout disparity - mostly derives from factors that out of his control.
That said, Deeds’s strategy might be worsening an already compromised situation. The state Senator is now emphasizing his rural roots and his conservative values in an effort to recapture his predecessor’s appeals in the state’s conservative regions. Yet, while it’s true that Deeds will need solid numbers downstate, he first and foremost needs Northern Virginia to give him as huge a boost as it gave Tim Kaine, Jim Webb and Barack Obama. That requires the region’s staunchly Democratic voters to be motivated, enthusiastic and ready to turn out in drove. Is Deeds’s rural outreach campaign going to do the trick?
New Jersey
In a new Monmouth poll, Jon Corzine faces just as big a deficit as Deeds: 50% to 36%. (Corzine trailed by 8% last month.) But here’s the shocker: Among registered voters, Corzine only trails 43% to 39%! What better proof that low turnout among Democratic-leaning voters are threatening to drown the party in 3 months?
The good news for Corzine: With New Jersey’s bluer roots, Obama might have more success at motivating his supporters than he would in the Old Dominion. And that’s exactly what the Governor’s campaign is banking on: His latest ad uses footage of Obama’s July 16th campaign event:
The spot’s goal is to convince Democratic voters to go to the polls, if not because they like Corzine than at least because they want to display their support to the president. Yet, Corzine looks well too unpopular to be saved by such a strategy. He is posting dreadfully low numbers among groups that form the Democratic base (he loses union households by 18% in the Monmouth poll) and, as an incumbent, it will be difficult for him to change voters’ mind.
Corzine’s numbers are now worrying Democrats beyond the gubernatorial race: While no state Senate seat are up for grabs in 2009, Republicans could post big gains in the state Assembly if Corzine drags down his party’s down-ballot candidates. It will probably not be enough to erase the GOP’s 16-vote deficit, but a lot can happen when an incumbent Governor is heading towards a 14% defeat.
So should Corzine agree to drop out of the race and allow his party to replace him on the ballot? That might not take care of the Democrats’ low turnout fear but it might be the party’s only hope to avert an all-around disaster. Frank Pallone and Cory Booker have already signaled their willingness to replace Corzine, and there is increasing buzz that Democrats are interested in such a switcheroo - though no one dares suggest that the Governor would agree to bow out.
Of course, the very fact that this possibility is being discussed openly suggests that no Democrat gives Corzine a serious chance to win the race. It would truly take one of the most outstanding comebacks of recent American politics for him to stay competitive in the final stretch, let alone pull out a victory.
Democrats simply disgust me. They have absolutely no sense of commitment to their party in years other than Presidential years and they think once they get the White House, that is all that they need. Shame on them.
I extremly doubt that Deeds, if he ultimately loses the VA gubernetorial mansion, will lose by double digits. Lets remember that in the Democratic primary Deeds was a nonfactor for most of the race before his pretty stunning come back win. Also Deeds only barely lost to McDonnell in the 2005 attorny General’s race. Nontheless, while Deeds has quite a problem with indepedents, his main problem is low turnout with the Democratic base. While Obama could probaly afford for Corzine to lose, a double digit loss for Deeds in Virginia would greatly damage Obama politically and likely forcast losses for Democrats in swing districts in the House where voters for Obama likely put them over the top. I suspect that Obama will do his part to help Deeds come close if not win outright.
In terms of the rural roots thing, I suspect that Deeds is trying to lock down the tyically conservative leaning downstate early, cosidering both his roots and McDonnell’s apathy to the region. The fall homestretch is when Deeds is likely to foucus intensely in the Democratic leaning NOVA, and his numbers will likely go up with Obama’s help. While Obama’s popularity is going down in VA, Deeds desperately needs Obama’s help in turning out the AA and young vote, or he will definitly lose (maybe not by double digits, but it will still be a loss.)
In terms of NJ, if Corzine still hasn’t improved by mid September, then Corzine is likely to go down in defeat absent some scandal on Christie’s part. Typcially it is around September in which polling for Democrats in NJ substantially improve, so if it doesn’t improve for Corizine it will be an important exception and I suspect National Democrats will abandon him and say that he loss of the NJ gubernetorial is purely local.
On another issue, if Democrats were so worried about Corzine then someone prominent should have challanged him in the Primary, it isn’t like Corizine is very personally popular with the Democratic base. As Corzine has no personal scandal about him (unlike Torcelli and McGreevy) there is no chance that he is just going to step aside.
Jaxx, in the past decade no other New Jersey Democrat has faced anything like the deficit Corzine is facing - not Kerry, not Corzine in 2005 and not Menendez in 2006. I don’t think Democrats have much to expect from those comparisons. As for the primary, I agree that letting Corzine go unchallenged was like letting Paterson go unchallenged. But: By the time Corzine’s numbers started falling it was already too late for state Democrats to do anything (Paterson faces a September 2010 primary, not June 2009) and Corzine’s standing with state Democrats remains relatively solid. His numbers are not that dreadful and the fact that he can use his vast fortune must have been enough to scare other Democrats away.