Much has been made of the fact that Kelly Ayotte might not have a clear path to the Republican nomination in New Hampshire Senate race. Since she has never ran for office, the theory goes, she will have to prove her conservative mettle and that might prove a problem: She has been re-appointed to her current office by Democratic Governor John Lynch and she has no clearly stated opinion on most issues of the day.
Perhaps most damning, she joined Lynch in advocating that New Hampshire communities apply for stimulus funds. “She doesn’t appear to be much of a fiscal conservative,” lamented The Washington Times last week, urging the NRSC to refrain from endorsing her against other Republicans. Many conservative activists, including that Washington Times article, compared Ayotte to Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins - not the best qualification for winning a Republican primary.
Last week, state party Chairman John H. Sununu (the father) tried to rescue Ayotte. “I think she’s much more conservative than the press has made her out to be. She’s pretty conservative on the social issues, and she’s extremely conservative on the fiscal issues,” he described. He added that her apparent support for the stimulus was due to the fact that, as the state’s lawyer, she had to “operate on the state’s agenda.” But he was less confident when asked about Ayotte’s position on abortion. “I believe” she opposes abortion rights, he said. “I don’t think I’ve ever seen a formal statement on her part, but having known her over the years, that’s my perception.”
Add to all of this the fact that 2 Republicans - Fred Tausch and Ovide Lamontagne - are pressing ahead with Senate plans of their own and it looks like the stars might be aligned for a competitive GOP primary that could threaten the NRSC’s ability to defend Judd Gregg’s seat.
Indeed, Ayotte’s lack of a record and the absence of prior policy statements puts her in the ideal position of being able to position herself however she wants without facing the risk of contradicting prior statements. If she knows she does not have to worry about a Republican primary, she can spend the next year fashioning herself a centrist profile out of nothing. In a state that swung so decisively blue since 2004, that would greatly improve her odds of victory.
On the other hand, if she has to worry about a challenge from her right she’ll have to make herself a staunch conservative all the way to the state’s late primary, endangering her general election electability.
Lamontagne and Tausch should not make top-tier challengers
Thankfully for the NRSC, Ayotte does not have much to fear for now. For one, the NRSC’s triumphant tone when Ayotte announced her candidacy and Sununu’s comments clearly suggest that national establishment clearly wants her to be their standard bearer; that means the support of prominent party officials and a big fundraising boost.
Second, Sununu is right: There is no evidence whatsoever that Ayotte is a moderate and the fact that she take whatever position she wants will make her hard to pinpoint her as a moderate. Third, even if Ayotte was a centrist, there is no evidence that the conservative base is in any position to stop her: The NRSC’s success in imposing Kirk and Crist as the quasi-presumptive nominees in Florida and Illinois suggest that relatively moderate Republicans don’t face insurmountable obstacles.
Fourth, and most importantly, her opposition doesn’t look credible. Ovide Lamontagne is the party’s 1996 gubernatorial nominee. At the time, he was the chairman of the State Board of Education, but he has not been a prominent figure ever since: A Nexis search reveals that only 132 stories contained his name twice in the 10-year period between January 1, 1999 and December 31, 2008. (And many of those stories referred to him in the context of discussing Jeanne Shaheen’s electoral history.)
As for Fred Tausch, well, The Concord Monitor just published a profile that should tell us all we need to know about his odds of defeating Ayotte. This very wealthy businessman is already spending vast amounts of his own fortune to win the seat - that never hurts - but I’m not sure what else he has going for him. While he looks to be very conservative, he donated to Barack Obama in the 2008 cycle - certainly a huge impediment to challenging Ayotte from the right.
Tausch also appears to be running away from the media - puzzling for someone who’ll have to dramatically raise his name recognition. And despite the fact that he’s been planning a run for months, he looks to have made little to no effort to contact the state’s network of Republican officials - something that he should have done within weeks of jumping in the public realm. From the Monitor profile:
Tausch has been reluctant to talk about much beyond his thoughts on government. He has not responded to multiple interview requests from the Monitor in recent weeks; his staffers didn’t even respond to requests to confirm information about him. Tausch reportedly also avoided talking to a reporter from Union Leader this month.
The Republican mayor of Nashua, Donnalee Lozeau, says simply: “I’ve never met him.” Merrimack’s state senator, Sheila Roberge, says she did meet Tausch about a month ago at a Republican get-together in Bedford, “but I don’t really know him . . . and I can’t think of who to direct you to.” Sen. Judd Gregg, the retiring Republican senior senator whose seat appears to be Tausch’s goal, says he has talked a little with Tausch about his issues – and, he adds, “I’ve read his fliers.”
In short, the current slate of Republican contenders does not look to be up to the challenge of defeating an establishment-backed and quasi-NRSC-endorsed candidate. The one politician who is prominent enough to perhaps do so is former Rep. Charlie Bass, who has yet to rule out a Senate run of his own. He has said he will do so by the end of the year, so he can afford to wait and see how Ayotte fares as a candidate.
The same goes in Illinois
Conservatives are no more likely to block Mark Kirk’s path in Illinois. Andy McKenna was muscled out last week and no other prominent Republican has even been mentioned as a potential challenger. (Rep. Peter Roskam had said he would consider running if Kirk did not, and we can probably now remove him from the list of prospective candidates.) One low-profile contender has emerged, however: Retired state judge Don Lowery, who lost a race for state appellate judge in 1988, is now running but he is highly unlikely to mount a credible threat.
Kirk’s opponents will need a well-known champion of conservative causes if they want to fire up the base. It’s of course ironic that, less than a month after Kirk was labeled a traitor by conservatives who vowed to end the political careers of all Republicans who voted for cap-and-trade, he is now looking well-positioned to win his party’s primary in his quest for a promotion.
Mark Kirk’s position in Illinois is the exact inverse of Charlie Melancon’s in Louisiana. He is the only member of his party that can make his race competitive, but he still faces an uphill battle.
Of course Melancon will run against an incumbent while Kirk runs for an open seat. But then again we are talking about an incumbent with Vitter’s baggage.
I wouldn’t call it an exact inverse. Nationally Louisana is about a Republican nationally as Illionis is Democratic (Obama did better in LA than McCain in IL, but that is largely because of the homestate advantage Obama had.
The incumbency thing isn’t really an issue. In fact, I would wager that if Vitter wasn’t running for reelection that Republicans would have an even greater advantage as they have now.
The main thing is on the scandals: Vitter’s scandals were mostly personal and happens a few years go, while the Blagoveich mess was late last year (less than a year ago), and it was more political, and therefore more relevant.
Therefore, while both Kirk and Melancon are the underdogs in their perspective races, Kirk has a much better chance of actually winning than Melancon does. Not to mention that this is an off-year election in which the incumbent’ president’s party generally doesn’t fair well. That will work to Vitters great advantage in LA while being somewhat of a drag for Democrats in Illinois. Lets not forget that Kirk polls about evenly with Giannlous, while Melacoln is behind Vitter by the margin of error.