Campaign Diaries

Democratic leaders have long stated their clear preference for pushing health care reform through both chambers of Congress before the August recess. This is no arbitrary deadline: Once congressmen leave the capital, they will be hammered by millions of dollars worth of TV spots, newspaper advertisement and special interest lobbying - all of this while being so far away from Capitol Hill that the party’s leadership cannot effectively keep them in toe.

Last week, The WaPo reported that the insurance industry is spending a staggering $1.4 million a day and employing an army of lobbyists, many of whom used to staff for prominent Senators like health care power-brokers Max Baucus and Chris Dodd. (Here’s a must-see chart summarizing the Senate Finance Committee members’ unbelievably extensive lobbyist connections.) As such, it’s stunning enough that we’re talking about the prospect of any health care reform that the White House doesn’t want to test Democrats’ integrity throughout August.

Yet, this deadline will be very hard to meet: The House recess starts on July 31st, the Senate’s on August 7th. That leaves the two chambers respectively 2 and 3 weeks to release a bill, debate it, sustain the pressure of conservative Democrats and pass it. Impossible, you say? Not necessarily: House Democrats just released their version of health care reform in the form of a bill that clocks in at 1,018 pages.

The good news for reformers: The 3 committees with jurisdiction over health care (Energy and Commerce, Ways and Means, and Education and Labor) have come together to write a single bill, avoiding the turf wars that plagued the 1994 debate and could weigh down the Senate since the Finance Committee and HELP Committee are writing separate bills that still have to be reconciled.

The bill is further to the left than what will come out of the Senate: A relatively strong public plan, subsidies for people making up to 400% above the poverty line (a higher threshold than is expected from the Senate), an individual mandate, an expansion of Medicaid. As I previewed on Saturday, a cap on the employer tax exclusion has been shelved, replaced by a surtax on higher incomes.

Obviously, then, the Senate will be the main obstacle for liberals. Even the HELP committee’s bill is weaker than the House’s - to say nothing of the Finance Committee’s version: Chairman Max Baucus is negotiating with the “Gang of Seven,” a group of Senators made up of 3 Democrats and 4 Republicans: Baucus, Conrad and Bingaman; Enzi, Hatch, Grassley and Snowe.

That’s right, Democrats control 60 Senate seats out of 100 but they are allowing health care reform to be crafted by a group that contains a majority of Republicans! That’s utterly nonsensical, grossly distorts the important of the ‘centrist caucus’ and makes a mockery of the idea that elections should have consequences.

2 Blue Dogs signed both the anti- and pro-public option letters

There are also obstacles to getting today’s bill through the House: Blue Dog Democrats are now organizing to water down the legislation, just as they did on Waxman-Markey. Last week, 40 Blue Dogs signed a letter warning the chamber’s leadership that they might defect if they don’t get what they want; in particular, they opposed a robust “Medicare-like public option.”

While I had been reading about this letter for days, I had not seen a full list of those who signed it. Looking at the letter, I understand why: The signatures are very hard to decipher! Here’s my attempt at figuring it out:

Stephanie Herseth Sandlin, Baron Hill
Heath Shuler, Charlie Melancon
Mike Ross, Jim Cooper
John Barrow, Sanford Bishop
Parker Griffith, ? (perhaps Michael Arcuri)
Lincoln Davis, Jason Altmire
Marion Berry, Jim Costa
(Collin Peterson?), ?? (perhaps Joe Donnelly)
Travis Childers, Leonard Boswell
Jim Marshall, Bart Gordon
Dan Boren, Chris Carney
Jim Matheson, (John Tanner?)
Allen Boyd, John Salazar
Ben Chandler, Kathy Dahlkemper
??, Earl Pomeroy
Patrick Murphy, David Scott
Mike Michaud, Tim Holden
Glenn Nye, Walt Minnick
Bobby Bright, Gabrielle Giffords
(Zach Space?), Mike McIntyre

If anyone thinks they can decipher the 5 remaining signatures, here’s the letter and here are the remaining Blue Dogs: Adam Schiff, Joe Baca, Melissa Bean, Dennis Cardoza, Henry Cuellar, Joe Donnelly, Brad Ellsworth, Jane Harman, Frank Kratovil, Gene Taylor, Mike Thompson, Charlie Wilson. I also tentatively added Zach Space, Michael Arcuri, Joe Donnelly and John Tanner but I remain unsure.

Public option supporters are also getting organized. Efforts to get progressives to pledge opposition to any bill lacking a public plan have been fairly successful, making it doubtful that such weakened reform could pass the House. Furthermore, 22 moderate Democrats wrote a letter in which they called for a “robust public option” that can rely preexisting networks. 5 Blue Dogs signed that letter: Jane Herman, Leonard Boswell, Joe Baca, Mike Michaud, Adam Schiff. (In addition, Loretta Sanchez came out strongly in favor of the public option.)

Here’s the catch: Leonard Boswell and Mike Michaud signed both letters.

To recap: The first letter proclaims that a “Medicare-like public option would negatively impact hospitals, doctors and patients.” The second letter clamors for a “robust public option” and insists that “without some connection to an established provider network, like Medicare, a public option will never be able to offer a real choice.” What gives?

Could there be more double-signers among the undecipherable signatures? It’s going to be an eventful few weeks indeed.