Comments on: Madigan out, Kirk in: Double shocker in Illinois politics http://campaigndiaries.com/2009/07/08/madigan-out-kirk-in/ Obsessive political analysis Thu, 11 Mar 2010 09:46:29 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.7 hourly 1 By: caliINDY http://campaigndiaries.com/2009/07/08/madigan-out-kirk-in/comment-page-1/#comment-26781 caliINDY Thu, 09 Jul 2009 16:36:23 +0000 http://campaigndiaries.com/?p=8949#comment-26781 I wouldn't necessarily say that Hodes can coast to victory. The GOP landed their best recruit with AG Kelly Ayotte. She's already leading Hodes in preliminary polls and although untested in an electoral campaign, she has the right profile and popularity to deny Democrats a pick up here. The NRSC has pulled off some stunning coups lately. I'd say that Florida is out of reach for the Dems with Crist sailing to victory. Delware and Illinois could be picked up, which is shocking considering those two seats used to be occupied by the now Democratic President and Vice President of the United States. I think Dodd has, at best a 50% chance, which is telling since he's a long term incumbent from a Blue state. I wouldn't count the Republicans out of New York or Colorado either. Their recruiting hasn't been as strong there, but the right candidate (Pataki in NY) could make the DSCC spend lots of money defedning those newly appointed Dem Senators. That said, Dems should pick up Missouri and I'd give them th slight edge to pick up Ohio too. I'd say they'll more than likely hold Pennsylvania, unless Ridge reverses his decision, then its a pure toss up, again. All in all, i'd say the GOP nets one, maybe two seats. But its still a very long time away from November 2010. I wouldn’t necessarily say that Hodes can coast to victory. The GOP landed their best recruit with AG Kelly Ayotte. She’s already leading Hodes in preliminary polls and although untested in an electoral campaign, she has the right profile and popularity to deny Democrats a pick up here.

The NRSC has pulled off some stunning coups lately. I’d say that Florida is out of reach for the Dems with Crist sailing to victory. Delware and Illinois could be picked up, which is shocking considering those two seats used to be occupied by the now Democratic President and Vice President of the United States. I think Dodd has, at best a 50% chance, which is telling since he’s a long term incumbent from a Blue state. I wouldn’t count the Republicans out of New York or Colorado either. Their recruiting hasn’t been as strong there, but the right candidate (Pataki in NY) could make the DSCC spend lots of money defedning those newly appointed Dem Senators.

That said, Dems should pick up Missouri and I’d give them th slight edge to pick up Ohio too. I’d say they’ll more than likely hold Pennsylvania, unless Ridge reverses his decision, then its a pure toss up, again.

All in all, i’d say the GOP nets one, maybe two seats. But its still a very long time away from November 2010.

]]> By: Maurice http://campaigndiaries.com/2009/07/08/madigan-out-kirk-in/comment-page-1/#comment-26702 Maurice Wed, 08 Jul 2009 22:27:50 +0000 http://campaigndiaries.com/?p=8949#comment-26702 I would still definitely call it a minefield for Senate Republicans in 2010, but it is improving for them. I believe that Fisher, Hodes and Carnahan could coast to victory, but apart from that... I would give Chris Dodd a 50-50 shot right now, though I believe that it will improve for him. And now Illinois joins Delaware, both being very Democratic, but with popular GOP Representatives who probably have around a 40% chance of being elected. For DE, it looks likely that Castle will verse Beau Biden, but the former has basically universal name recognition, while the latter's last name is very familiar. Will Biden be able to introduce himself, or will another AG pull a Madigan? I would still definitely call it a minefield for Senate Republicans in 2010, but it is improving for them.

I believe that Fisher, Hodes and Carnahan could coast to victory, but apart from that…

I would give Chris Dodd a 50-50 shot right now, though I believe that it will improve for him.

And now Illinois joins Delaware, both being very Democratic, but with popular GOP Representatives who probably have around a 40% chance of being elected. For DE, it looks likely that Castle will verse Beau Biden, but the former has basically universal name recognition, while the latter’s last name is very familiar. Will Biden be able to introduce himself, or will another AG pull a Madigan?

]]>