Campaign Diaries

Prominent politicians seem to have taken the 4th of July week-end to finalize their 2010 plans, as the past two days have brought an avalanche of electoral announcements. The latest to make up her mind is South Dakota Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin, who today announced she will seek re-election rather than run for higher office.

While her decision is a blow to her party’s prospects in the gubernatorial race, it’s hard not to portray this as good news for Democrats. Had she sought a new position, she would have been the clear underdog and she would have created a nightmare for the DCCC at the House level: The GOP would have been favored to pick-up an open seat, especially in a midterm election that could be fought in a tough environment for Democrats.

This scenario would also have been catastrophic for Senate Democrats. South Dakota’s sole representative is typically the front-runner to eventually move up to the higher chamber (Tom Dashle, Tim Johnson and John Thune all first served in the House). While Republicans have a deep enough bench that many of their politicians could win an open Senate seat, Democrats are in hostile territory so their nominee will need to already be a formidable contender. As such, Herseth Sandlin is the DSCC’s most (only?) credible hope to hold on to Tim Johnson’s seat once the longtime Democratic Senator retires (presumably in 2014).

And yet, Herseth Sandlin had been flirting with the prospect of seeking higher office for months. Earlier this year, press outlets even reported that she was “planning” a gubernatorial run, and the congresswoman also said she was also looking at challenging Senator Thune. Thus, today’s announcement was no preordained conclusion and it is a genuinely newsworthy development.

Herseth Sandlin’s decision takes care of most of the questions we had about South Dakota’s 2010 cycle: We can already say that it is is highly unlikely any of the state’s three major races will be competitive next year. Let’s look at them in order.

House: Herseth should coast but keep an eye on Nelson

Herseth Sandlin might not be representing the most hospitable district, but she has easily own her re-election races (she received 69% in 2006 and 68% in 2008). Small states like the Dakotas like to hold on to their congresspeople because their only hope for exercising political influence is to have senior legislators, so Herseth Sandlin’s entrenchment should allow her to serve many more terms in the House.

One potential obstacle: In signaling interest in a House bid, Secretary of State Chris Nelson has specified he might run even if Herseth Sandlin seeks re-election. The Democrat’s popularity and incumbency would make her the clear favorite, but South Dakota is conservative enough that Nelson would have a shot at an upset.

Governor: The GOP primary will determine the victor

Mike Rounds is term-limited, so this will be an open race. But Herseth Sandlin was the only Democrat in any position to contest the race. The GOP has controlled the Governor’s Mansion since 1979, and they’re likely to extend that streak for another four years though it remains to be seen who will emerge as the GOP nominee. A number of Republicans are already in the race, including state Senator Dave Knudson, Lieutenant Governor Dennis Daugaard and Brookings Mayor Scott Munsterman.

Senate: Thune is safe

However much Democrats would love to beat Dashle’s slayer, it doesn’t look like John Thune has anything to worry about. Just like in the gubernatorial contest, Herseth Sandlin was the only potential challenger to pose a potential threat and even she would have been unlikely to get very far: An April poll showed Thune up 12%. The conservative Senator, who has been rising in the GOP leadership, should thus be able to spend the 2010 cycle traveling the country, helping fellow Republicans and building good-will for a potential presidential run in 2012.