Four months from Election Day, it is still looking very much possible that Democrats will go 0-3 in the three major 2009 races. In New Jersey and Virginia’s gubernatorial contests and in New York’s mayoral race, the Democratic nominees are in tough spots. (The latter race might not fit in the usual partisan model given that Mike Bloomberg is no longer a registered Republican, but he will run on the GOP line.)
Corzine goes on the offensive
Any readers of this blog know that Republican nominee Chris Christie is now favored to beat Jon Corzine, and the Governor’s campaign is worried enough that they are already going up on air with a tough spot:
The ad accuses Christie of granting contracts to three of his pals. While two of them are low-profile attorneys, one happens to be former Attorney General John Ashcroft, a key figure from the Bush administration’s first term who is despised by most liberals. As such, the ad is intended to question his reputation for moderation by associating him with Republicans whom New Jersey voters distrust.
That said, the ad’s main goal is obviously to damage Christie on ethics. The Republican’s law-and-order and tough-on-corruption image lie at the heart of his general election campaign, and Democrats are signaling that they are willing to tackle that head on. Sure, that wouldn’t address the issue of voters’ distrust for Corzine, but the Governor’s team is betting that, if offered the choice between two unethical-seeming Trenton politicians, New Jersey voters will always go with the Democrat.
With this ad, Corzine is drawing on Christie’s recent testimony in front of a House Judiciary Subcommittee. Congressional Democrats wanted to investigate deals Christie had struck with corporations to help them avoid charges. (His selection of Ashcroft for a multi-million contract intervened in that context.) From Corzine’s ad and from that hearing, it’s already obvious that this contest is going to take nasty undertones. At the House hearing, Democratic Rep. Steve Cohen blasted Christie’s handling of negotiations with corporations. “You made them an offer they couldn’t refuse,” he said. “It is an ethnically insensitive comment to an Italian American,” Christie responded, forcing Cohen to backtrack.
McDonnell captures first clear lead since early June
PPP tested Virginia’s gubernatorial election for the first time, finding Republican Attorney General Bill McDonnell ahead of Democratic state Senator Creigh Deeds, 49% to 43%. Both have good favorability ratings - 51-32 for McDonnell, 48-29 for Deeds - but Deeds is facing the prospect of dreadfully low turnout among young voters and a big deficit among independents. (PPP also tested other statewide contests and found Republicans Bill Bolling and Ken Cuccinelli leading the LG and AG races.)
Three polls were released in the immediate aftermath of Deeds’s primary victory in early June. Rasmussen and Anzalone-Liszt found the Democrat vaulting to his first general election leads ever and Research 2000 also found him experiencing a big 11% bounce though he still trailed by 1%. In other words: PPP’s survey is the first to have been conducted after the immediate post-primary period, and it also happens to be the first survey since the primary to find McDonnell ahead outside of the margin of error - a clear illustration of a fading bounce.
This is hardly a surprise. McDonnell has been considered the favorite and Deeds’s newfound advantage was bound to disappear as the positive coverage died down. The fact that he was able to build a lead early June should still make Democrats confident that this race is winnable. The worst news the poll contains for Deeds is that the two candidates’ name recognition is roughly at the same level, so he cannot hope to gain simply by introducing himself to voters. Also worrisome for Democrats is Barack Obama’s approval rating, which now stands at a mediocre 48-46 - a fall all the more significant as it comes a day after Quinnipiac’s Ohio survey found a similar trend.
Bloomberg keeps solid lead, slips under 50%
Marist’s latest poll of New York’s mayoral race finds Mike Bloomberg down to his smallest lead of the year when matched-up against Democratic Comptroller Bill Thompson. But that’s not saying a lot, as the Mayor is ahead 48% to 35% - down from a 51% to 33% lead in May.
Sure, he is under the 50% threshold (usually a sign of incumbent vulnerability) but the rest of the poll finds a strikingly positive picture: Bloomberg is one of the few executives executives in the country whose handling of the economic crisis is popular. Not only is his approval rating a strong 58%, but 51% like his dealings with the economy (versus 40%) and 49% approve of his budgetary policies (versus 41%). Add to that New Yorkers’ optimism (52% say the city is moving in the right direction, 39% say the contrary), and Bloomberg looks on his way towards a third term.
Frankly, even if Thompson had dozens of weaknesses to exploit, it’s hard to see how he could overcome the financial disparity and find the resources to make his case in front of undecided voters. Money might not everything in politics, but Bloomberg’s millions are a hugely significant guarantee that the undecided voters who are leaving Bloomberg under 50% will hear far more from the mayor than from his rival.
Corzine has no choice but to go negative in New Jersey. He doesn’t have enough time for the ecnomny to turn around, and indeed if he can make Cristie bad in the eyes of voters, he could pull off an victory as the lesser of two evils. So of the few 2009 races, NJ will be the nastiest.
On the VA race, one cavet is that this is PPP’s first poll of the General election, while other poll firms have been tracking General election numbers for quite a while, so say that McDonnell is definitly back in the lead is something that shouldn’t yet be rushed to judgment. McDonnell is in a similar position that Kilgore was in in the 2005 Gov. race against Kaine. Of course McDonnell is much less likely to make stupid mistake as Kilgore did, but I strongly suspect that the VA governor’s race will be as close as the 2005 AG race in which McDonnell and Deeds first faced each other. I also suspect that McDonnell’s deemphasis on his conservative values is helping him in the race as much as the less motivated Democratic base is, especially when it comes to indepedents. If Deeds and VA democrats try to make McDonnell out as more of a conservative as McDonnell is letting on, it could help Deeds alot. But we need to wait and see.
As for Bloomberg, he has been the favorite for quite some time, and without any major weaknesses his will win easily. If he wasn’t on the GOP line then perhaps it would be possible for him to split the centrist and right leaning votes and let a Democrat win, but now that is impossible.