Campaign Diaries

That sound you just heard is the GOP’s massive sigh of relief. Faced with the dreadful prospect of finding no credible candidate to field in New Hampshire’s Senate race, the party landed as strong a candidate as it could have hoped for today: Kelly Ayotte announced that she would resign from her position as Attorney General to explore a Senate bid.

This is not to say that Ayotte is a formidable contender, and she will join the contest with significant liabilities. But the GOP would have been in a bad spot had she declined: They would have been left fielding a second to third-tier candidate like businessmen Rich Ashooh and Fred Tausch. As such, Ayotte’s quasi-entrance denies the DSCC a chance at an effortless pick-up and it ensures a competitive race in a state that is no Democratic stronghold. After all, Ayotte did lead probable Democratic nominee Paul Hodes by 4% in a UNH poll released last week, performing better than former Senator John Sununu.

Ayotte’s clearest drawback is that she has never been elected to any office. The Attorney General position is an appointed position, so despite the fact that she has occupied a statewide position since 2004 the Senate race will mark the first time Ayotte will face voters. There is no telling how she will perform on the trail, whether she’ll be able to connect with voters and whether she’ll have the constant discipline politicians need in the YouTube age.

And she’ll sure have to run an impeccable campaign: New Hampshire will be no easy state for Republicans to defend. The state’s leftward drift predates the past two cycles cycles as the Granite State is the only state to have gone from Bush in 2000 to Kerry in 2004; that same year, voters ousted their GOP Governor. In 2006 and in 2008, Republicans lost a Senate seat, the state’s two House seats and both chambers of the legislature - not to mention granting Obama a 9% victory.

Can they possibly rebound in 2010 or have the state’s independents durably deserted the GOP? More specifically: Can Ayotte break out of the low 40s range that has plagued Republicans over the past few cycles? Sununu got more than 45% in only two polls throughout the entirety of 2008 - and recent polls once again found him hovering around 40%; McCain also received 45%. And the UNH survey that found Ayotte ahead showed ahead at 39%. Can she claim back enough voters to reach a majority? Can she appeal beyond the party’s narrowing base?

Ayotte is probably better placed than most Republicans to reclaim those voters who have abandoned her party. Her strongest asset is the fact that she has been appointed to her current post by Governors of both parties: After Republican Governor Benson nominated her in 2004, she was kept to her post by John Lynch in 2008. Even though Lynch will support Hodes, Ayotte will be able to point to the fact that a Democratic Governor trusted her to work by his side - the type of nonpartisan credential that could seduce moderate Republicans and independents.

It will not be easy for her to maintain her nonpartisan image as the Republican nominee in such a high-profile race that should draw millions from the national parties. One issue Democrats can use is abortion: New Hampshire independents are no social conservatives, so Ayotte’s prominent role in taking an abortion case all the way to the Supreme Court over Lynch’s objections could be revisited over the next year.

On the other hand, I am skeptical that another issue on which Democrats are now going on the offensive will resonate much. Lynch is now claiming that Ayotte had promised him that she would finish a second term when they discussed the matter in 2008, but that’s unlikely to resonate beyond the blogosphere: Politicians routinely break such promises and face no consequence, and Ayotte had not even made a public statement.

Perhaps Democrats can use her resignation to label her a Palin-like quitter? I am unclear as to whether Ayotte had to resign to run or whether she is doing so to mark her distances from Lynch’s Democratic administration, but it could help Hodes damage her image as being the above the political fray.

That image, of course, is due less to anything Ayotte has done than to Lynch reappointing her. As such, the Governor bears huge responsibility in the good news the GOP received today and I do hope this finally gets him to reflect on the ridiculous extents to which he has taken his displays of bipartisanship. Remember that, earlier this year, he was set to appoint a Republican replacement for Judd Gregg! That did not come to pass but a Republican appointment to another post is now proving to be the NRSC’s salvation: Had Lynch appointed a Democratic Attorney General, it would have been tougher for Ayotte to mount a run.